Get started

U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDEUX trade ideas

EURUSD - FVG Rejection and Bearish Continuation PlayEURUSD has been showing consistent bearish pressure on the 4H chart, with a clear shift in momentum after forming a double top near 1.162. That marked the beginning of a structural change, which was confirmed once price broke the most recent higher low. Since then, the market has transitioned into a bearish structure, with lower highs forming consecutively. This suggests that the bullish trend is over for now, and the market is more likely to seek liquidity below. Rejection at Fair Value Gap After the low was broken, price retraced back into a 4H fair value gap, which has now acted as resistance. This is typical smart money behavior, sweep liquidity, shift structure, then retest an imbalance before continuing lower. The wick rejection inside the purple FVG zone is a strong signal that this area is being respected and that sellers are defending it. The rejection aligns with the overall bearish market flow and suggests that the market has likely completed its retest. Short-Term Support and Liquidity Target The light blue FVG around 1.144 could offer temporary support, but the bias remains bearish. That level sits right at the midpoint of the recent bullish leg that was already violated, and while price may pause here, the more logical draw on liquidity sits deeper. Unless there’s a sudden shift in market structure or high-impact fundamental news, this area is expected to eventually give way. Liquidity Below and Final Target The cleanest and most obvious liquidity pool rests around the 1.137 zone. This is where price previously consolidated before initiating the impulsive move higher, and it remains unmitigated. If the current bearish structure holds, the market will likely target this area next. The path there might not be linear, we could see a short-term bounce off 1.144, but as long as price remains below the 1.153 FVG rejection, the bearish continuation remains valid. Trade Expectation and Risk Context This setup aligns well with typical displacement-retest-continuation behavior. The risk is clearly defined above the FVG rejection, and as long as lower highs continue forming beneath that zone, the bearish thesis remains intact. Key downside targets are 1.144 for partials, and 1.137 as the final draw on liquidity. This setup offers both precision and strong narrative confluence, ideal for swing or intraday positioning. Conclusion Price has shifted bearish on the 4H, confirmed by a break of structure and rejection from a clear FVG. As long as we remain below that imbalance, the market should continue hunting liquidity to the downside. 1.144 may act as short-term support, but the real magnet sits at 1.137. Patience and risk control will be key in riding this move effectively. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
2
Potential bearish drop?EUR/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1524 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that align with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1572 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1452 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EUR/USD - Eyes on the major resistance at 1.1540!Introduction The EUR/USD currency pair has been trending downward on the 1-hour timeframe, indicating that bearish momentum is firmly in control. In this analysis, I will outline what to expect from the pair moving forward, and highlight the high-confluence zone that could offer a potential short setup. This area combines technical factors that suggest it may act as strong resistance if price retraces upward before continuing the downtrend. Market Structure On the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD continues to form a series of lower highs and lower lows, which clearly confirms a bearish market structure. This consistent pattern reinforces that sellers have the upper hand, and that any short-term rallies are likely to be corrective in nature, not trend-changing. As long as this structure remains intact, the broader expectation remains bearish, with sellers likely to defend key resistance levels. Fair Value Gaps on the 15-Minute and 1-Hour Timeframes During the latest downward movement, the pair left behind two notable Fair Value Gaps, one on the 1-hour chart and another on the 15-minute chart. These imbalances are closely aligned, creating a strong confluence zone where price may face resistance if it moves back upward. The zone between 1.15400 and 1.15600 represents this overlapping FVG area. Because these gaps were formed by aggressive selling pressure, revisiting this level could trigger a bearish reaction, as traders look to re-enter short positions from a premium price. Golden Pocket Fibonacci Retracement Adding to this confluence, the Golden Pocket, the area between the 61.8% and 65% Fibonacci retracement levels, lies between 1.15407 and 1.15441. This zone is widely respected among traders due to its tendency to act as a reversal point in trending markets. The fact that it aligns so closely with both the 15-minute and 1-hour FVGs increases the likelihood of price reacting here. If the market retraces into this pocket, we could see renewed selling pressure, making it a valuable level to watch for short entries. Point of Interest and Liquidity Zone Within the latest leg down, there was a brief two-hour consolidation before the pair continued lower, leaving behind a distinct wick to the upside. This area is significant because it likely represents a point of interest where buy-side liquidity was grabbed. Many traders who entered shorts early may have placed their stop-losses above this consolidation high, creating a liquidity pool. This level, sitting inside the broader resistance zone formed by the FVGs and the Golden Pocket, adds another layer of technical significance. Price may move into this liquidity before reversing lower, offering a potential trap for buyers and an opportunity for sellers. Downside Targets If the price reacts to the resistance zone and resumes its downward movement, there are two logical targets to the downside. The first is 1.1485, which corresponds to the most recent swing low. The second target is 1.1475, which represents a deeper low and a stronger potential support level. These levels align with previous structure and could serve as key take-profit zones for traders holding short positions. Conclusion The EUR/USD remains in a well-defined downtrend, and several technical elements now converge between 1.15400 and 1.15600 to form a strong resistance zone. This area includes the 15-minute Fair Value Gap, the 1-hour Fair Value Gap, the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement, and a significant point of interest tied to liquidity. While the pair may not need to reach this zone before continuing lower, if it does, it is likely to act as a barrier to further upside. For traders looking to follow the dominant trend, this high-confluence area offers a potential entry point to the downside, with clear structure-based targets below. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
EUR/USD Holds Neutral Tone Ahead of Fed DecisionIn recent hours, the pair has shown limited movement of just 0.5%, reflecting a neutral bias as the market prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement. At this point, expectations suggest that the U.S. central bank will maintain a neutral stance, keeping the interest rate steady at 4.5% in the short term. However, the key focus will be on the Fed’s accompanying statement, where the greatest uncertainty lies. If the tone remains hawkish, it's likely that demand for the U.S. dollar will strengthen, potentially adding downward pressure to EUR/USD. Uptrend Remains Intact Since early March, the pair has maintained a steady bullish trend, without any major corrections that would threaten the current structure. That said, the price has once again approached key resistance zones, but has yet to break through them in a sustained manner—opening the door for range-bound movement if this pattern continues. Technical Indicators RSI: The Relative Strength Index has begun to show lower highs, while EUR/USD continues to print higher highs. This bearish divergence indicates an imbalance in market forces, potentially signaling room for a short-term correction. MACD: The MACD histogram is fluctuating near the zero line, reflecting a technically neutral environment. As long as this behavior continues, the pair may enter a consolidation phase, awaiting a clearer directional signal. Key Levels to Watch: 1.15443 – Current Resistance: Marks the multi-month high. A sustained move above this level could revive the bullish momentum. 1.13177 – Intermediate Support: Aligns with a recent neutral zone and the 50-period moving average. It acts as a technical support in the event of short-term pullbacks. 1.10428 – Key Support: Represents the lowest level of recent months. A break below this area could trigger a stronger bearish bias, putting the current uptrend at risk. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst Follow him at: @julianpineda25
by FOREXcom
EURUSD: 4H MA50 may start aggressive rally to 1.17900.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.513, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 36.044), trading inside a Channel Up for the past 5 weeks. Yesterday it made contact with its 4H MA50, which is the most common level of support inside this pattern. Based on that, we find highly probable for the pair to start the new bullish wave. A HH on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension has been a common feature of this Channel Up, hence we are turning bullish here with TP = 1.17900. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EURUSD broke the Support level 1.14865👀 Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) rose 0.07% on June 16, supported by safe-haven flows as geopolitical tensions escalated. The move followed U.S. calls for evacuation from Tehran after intensified Israeli strikes, with former President Trump blaming Iran for rejecting a nuclear deal. Markets now eye the Fed’s upcoming policy decision and June 17’s U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Strong data may push EURUSD down toward 1.15000, while weaker numbers could lift it back to 1.16300. Peace talk updates between Israel and Iran may also impact sentiment. ✅ Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.14740 Resistance level is located at 1.16330
by MaxOnMarkets
ABC Bullish Hello awesome traders, hope you're having a great week! We’ve got a clean ABC bullish setup unfolding beautifully on EURUSD 4H: 🔶 Pattern: ABC Bullish 🕓 Timeframe: 4H ⚡️ Structure: AB=CD completion at 61.8% with PRZ confluence 📍 Entry Level: 1.15058 (confirmed breakout + retest) 🎯 Target 1: 1.16006 (AB=CD) 🎯 Target 2: 1.16561 (extended projection) 🛑 Invalidation: Below 1.13717 (D-point) Technical Highlights: ✅ 61.8% retracement support at D ✅ 78.6% BC retracement ✅ Price bounced cleanly and is consolidating above EL ✅ Momentum build above structure, higher lows in play 📊 Watching for continuation toward 1.1600 and beyond if structure holds. Trade smart, protect capital, and let the pattern do the work!
Long
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
EUR/USD Pressured by Safe-Haven Dollar DemandEUR/USD traded near 1.15 on Wednesday, under pressure from safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar as Middle East tensions escalated. Fears of broader conflict involving the U.S. kept the dollar firm. Markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to stay unchanged, though guidance may shape future expectations. The euro remained weak, burdened by Europe’s energy import exposure amid rising oil prices. Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters. The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound from the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● A completed AB=CD (0.883 / 1.112) pattern at the channel floor (1.1488) produced a hammer, signalling exhaustion of bears at the measured PRZ. ● Price is now reclaiming the micro structure high 1.1526; that flips the inner range to support and opens the next intra-channel pivot 1.1560, with room to the upper wall near 1.1600. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● EZ May trade balance swung back to a €4 bn surplus while weak US housing starts shaved another 4 bp off 2-yr yields, compressing the short-rate gap and underpinning EUR bids. ✨ Summary Buy 1.1500-1.1530; break >1.1560 targets 1.1600, stretch 1.1650. Bull bias void on 30 min close below 1.1480. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSD – Bullish momentum fades, downside pressure intensifiesEURUSD formed a lower high near 1.1613, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Price is now testing a key trendline, and a break below 1.1473 could confirm a bearish move toward 1.1350. Market sentiment is currently dominated by the Fed’s hawkish stance following the latest FOMC meeting, where the central bank kept rates unchanged but expressed readiness to hike further if necessary. Meanwhile, although tensions in the Middle East are escalating, they have yet to deliver a significant blow to the USD. Given the current backdrop, EURUSD is under considerable pressure and may soon break its bullish structure unless strong buying interest re-emerges.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.1538, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.1454, a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2 Fib extension. The stop loss is set at 1.1570, an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Goldman and BofA agree: The dollar is losing its edgeGoldman Sachs now expects the EUR/USD to hit 1.20 by the end of the year. While this prediction draws comparisons to the 2017 rally in the pair, Goldman notes a key difference. This time, the pricing reflects pessimism in the US dollar, rather than optimism in the euro. Bank of America seemingly agrees and warns that even a “hawkish” dot plot at this week’s FOMC meeting, where Fed officials signal fewer rate cuts, may only cause a brief bout of euro weakness against the dollar. EUR/USD has recently broken out of a long-term descending triangle pattern, which capped price action from mid-April through early June, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ and BofA’s view of a broad EUR strength/ USD weakness. This recent pullback to the 1.1480 area is a retest of former resistance turned support, suggesting a potential continuation pattern if buyers defend this level.
by BlackBull_Markets