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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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#AN018: Summer shock, tariffs, Fed delays, and the dollar's shif In recent days, the forex world has experienced a sequence of key events that could redefine the global currency landscape in the coming months. Risk to the dollar has become structural, the threat of tariffs is multiplying again, and the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy creates an extremely risky mix for exchange rates. Let's start with the Fed minutes: Jerome Powell attributed tariff risk to the main reason for postponing possible rate cuts. Market expectations are realigning toward a longer rate cycle, fueling a climate of global uncertainty. At the same time, Goldman Sachs warns that the dollar is increasingly moving as a "risky" currency, correlated with equity markets—an emerging market rather than a safe haven. On the geopolitical front, President Trump has relaunched the trade war: announcements of tariffs of up to 35% on Canada, up to 20% on Europe, and 50% on copper from Brazil have caused futures volatility to soar and sent the dollar into a short-term rally. But Deutsche Bank is sounding the alarm: the summer period of low liquidity and rising trade tensions represents a potential trigger for prolonged currency turbulence. The Financial Times envisions a scenario in which the dollar loses ground as the dominant currency, ushering in a multipolar currency world in which the euro, renminbi, gold, and even cryptocurrencies could gain ground. The impact on Forex: USD: The narrative is changing: no longer a net safe haven, but an asset correlated with political and risk cycles. The weakness of the DXY index in the first half of 2025 (-10%) reflects this transition. EUR/USD: Potentially favored if the dollar continues its consolidation. However, new tariffs and US-EU uncertainty could provide temporary support for the greenback. USD/JPY and USD/CHF: These crosses will be subject to greater volatility, with the next catalyst being the Fed minutes and the timing of tariffs. Safe-haven currencies strengthen during periods of uncertainty. CAD, AUD, NZD: penalized by tariffs on Canada and Brazil and a weak dollar. OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions could boost commodities, but data confirmation is needed. Commodity cross-correlation: USD/CAD could rebound if oil loses momentum, while AUD/JPY is sensitive to both the RBA and increased global risk. Conclusion: The current currency environment appears unstable and sensitive to political and trade developments. Summer volatility could persist, and those who can read the macro and institutional signals (Fed, tariffs, geopolitics) will have the opportunity to enter accurately. Until a stable direction emerges, EUR/USD looks like the most interesting cross to capture a potential structural correction in the dollar.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EUR/USD Holding the Line: Bullish Channel Setup!Hi traders! Analyzing EUR/USD on the 30-min timeframe, price is currently reacting near the bottom of a well-defined ascending channel, signaling a potential bullish continuation within the trend: 🔹 Entry: 1.17071 🔹 Take Profit: 1.17423 🔹 Stop Loss: 1.16825 After a corrective move downwards, price tapped into a key trendline support, aligning with prior structure and psychological level near 1.1700. The RSI is showing a bullish divergence near oversold levels, adding confluence to a possible reversal. As long as price holds above the lower boundary of the channel, bulls may look to target the mid-to-upper region of the range, aligning with previous highs and dynamic resistance. 🟢 The trend remains intact as long as higher lows are respected. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader is responsible for managing their own risk and strategy.
Long
by FXOnTop
EURUSD 1D IDEAThis is the reason why we are so blindly short this pair while not looking at the HTF For the 1W timeframe, it completed 61.8% pullback of the closed above 50% Fib heading to 38.1% or might be higher to 26% But so far for the 1D TF, we can see will retest the fvg at 68.1% Pullback or even higher at 78% We keep looking at 1H to 4H target but don't see the high time frame Fib. This cause a lot of people losing the money. So trade wisely, this is my 1D target, CHOCH is also confirmed in the Daily chart, it will heading back to 1.80 right now or even higher at 1.10. However, if the price keep surpase 1.13, Week Fib will come into play Goodluck
Long
by JenniferForex
EUR/USD WEEKLY SWING (1H) Pull Back BEARISHThe weekly pull back level (orange line) is found on the (1H - 2H) trading view chart. With the MT4 Chart reading small scalping action to the down side the intraday traders should switch to a bullish stance for the pullback and find reversal at the first major S&R Liquidation zone that broke the Support of the previous break of structure to the down side on the (4H - 1D) Chart To maintain only taking a weekly swing risk place sells around the 1.17716 level
by forexpro711
Bullish bounce off major support?EUR/ISD is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance, Pivot: 1.1688 1st Support: 1.1548 1st Resistance: 1.1750 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EUR/USD Correction Targets March Uptrend- Support in ViewThe Euro rally exhausted into uptrend resistance into the start of the month with EUR/USD threatening to snap a two-week winning streak at fresh yearly highs. Price has fallen more than 1% from the high and the near-term threat for a larger correction remains below the weekly open at 1.1775. A break below the weekly opening-range today threatens further declines within this formation with initial support objective seen at the 1.618% extension / 2016 high at 1.1609/16 and the April high at 1.1573. Note that the April trendline converges on this threshold next week and a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests with the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1440. Initial resistance is eyed with the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.1748 and is backed closely by the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1775/87- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation levels with a breach above the upper parallel (currently near ~1.1830s) ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.1917 and the 1.618% extension of the January rally at 1.1990. Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance into the monthly open threatens a larger correction here in EUR/USD. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.1573 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. -MB
by FOREXcom
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart appears to show a technical analysis setup for the EUR/USD pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here are the key elements and interpretation: 1. Support and Resistance Zones (Purple Boxes): Support Zone: Around 1.1670 – 1.1680 Resistance Zones: Minor: Around 1.1715 – 1.1720 Major: Around 1.1740 – 1.1750 2. Bullish Divergence: There's a bullish divergence indicated by the blue trend lines: the price made a lower low while the indicator (likely RSI or MACD, not shown here) made a higher low. This is a signal of potential bullish reversal. 3. Expected Price Movement (Blue Arrows): The analyst is predicting a bullish recovery from the support zone around 1.1670. Price is expected to make a higher low, then move up towards the resistance near 1.1720. 4. Current Price: Trading at **
Long
by Rickypher
#AN017: Dirty Levels in Forex: How Banks Think In the world of Forex, many retail traders are accustomed to seeking surgical precision in technical levels. Clear lines, pinpoint support, geometric resistance. But the truth is that the market doesn't move in such an orderly fashion. I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and I thank my Official Broker Partner in advance for supporting us in writing this article. Institutions—banks, macro funds, hedge funds—don't operate to confirm textbook patterns. Instead, they work to manipulate, accumulate, and distribute positions as efficiently as possible. And often, they do so precisely at the so-called "dirty levels." But what are these dirty levels? They are price zones, not individual lines. They are areas where many traders place stop losses, pending orders, or breakout entries, making them an ideal target for institutional players. The concept of a dirty level arises from the fact that the price fails to respect the "perfect" level, but breaks it slightly and then retraces its steps: a false breakout, a trap, a hunt for stops. Banks are very familiar with the behavior of retail traders. They have access to much more extensive information: aggregated positioning data, open interest in options, key levels monitored by algorithms. When they see concentrations of orders around a zone, they design actual liquidity triggers. They push the price just beyond the key level to "clean" the market, generate panic or euphoria, and then initiate their actual trade. How are these levels identified? A trader who wants to operate like an institution must stop drawing sharp lines and start thinking in trading bands. A dirty level is, on average, a zone 10 to 15 pips wide, around a psychological level, a previous high/low, or a breakout area. But technical structure alone is not enough. It's important to observe: Volume density (volume profile or book visibility) Aggregate retail sentiment (to understand where stops are placed) Key option levels (especially gamma and maximum pain) Rising open interest (as confirmation of institutional interest) When a price approaches a dirty level, you shouldn't enter. You should wait for manipulation. The price often briefly breaks above that range, with a spike, and only then does it retrace its steps in the opposite direction. That's when banks enter: when retail has unloaded its positions or been forced into trading too late. The truly expert trader enters after the level has been "cleaned," not before. This type of reading leads you to trade in the opposite way to the crowd. It forces you to think ahead: where they want you to enter... and where they actually enter. And only when you begin to recognize these invisible patterns, when you understand that the market is not linear but designed to deceive you, do you truly begin to become a professional trader. Conclusion? Trading isn't about predicting the price, but predicting the intentions of those who actually move the market. Dirty levels are key. Those who know how to read manipulation can enter profitably, before the real acceleration. And from that moment, they'll never look back.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD Will Go Lower! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 30m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.172. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.170. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Euro H4 | Multi-swing-low support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.1684 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.1570 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.1807 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
Price Grabbed Liquidity and Demand FormedHello Traders, Today on EUR/USD, we observed a sweep of the sell-side liquidity (SSL), where price failed to close below and instead left a strong wick—indicating a potential institutional move. A fresh demand zone has now formed, suggesting that price is likely to target the nearest high before initiating a deeper move to the downside. With lower time frame (LTF) confirmation, this setup presents a high-probability trading opportunity.
Long
by fxtrends28
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart of EUR/USD (1-hour timeframe) illustrates a bearish setup based on price action, resistance zones, and a descending trendline. Here's a breakdown of what's shown: Key Components in the Chart: 1. Descending Trendline (Blue): Indicates lower highs, showing bearish pressure. 2. Resistance Zone (~1.1725–1.1735): Price is expected to test this zone. If rejected again, it reinforces the bearish setup. 3. Short-Term Range (Mini Boxes): Blue zigzag lines suggest a possible liquidity grab or false breakout above minor highs before reversal. 4. Bearish Target Zones: First target: ~1.1700 (short-term support). Second target: ~1.1690 (stronger support zone). --- Outlook Based on This Chart: Bias: Bearish (as long as price stays below the trendline). Entry Zone: Near resistance (1.1725–1.1735). Confirmation: Rejection candles or bearish engulfing in the resistance zone. Invalidation: Clear breakout and close above the trendline. Let me know if you want a trading plan based on this setup (entry, SL, TP), or if you'd like me to review the same pair in a different timeframe.
Short
by Rickypher