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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD I Its re-accumulation. COT Overview Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
23
EUR/USD at a Turning Point:Rally or Trap for the Bulls?📉 Technical Analysis Price has decisively broken out of the descending channel highlighted in recent weeks. The weekly support zone between 1.1540 – 1.1580 is holding, triggering a significant technical reaction. The weekly RSI has entered oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. Key Support: 1.1530–1.1580 (currently reacting) Key Resistance: 1.1720–1.1780 (inefficiency & supply zone) Base Case: Potential rebound toward 1.1720–1.1750 before next structural decision 🧠 Sentiment Analysis 82% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 1.1635 Only 18% are short, a clear minority This extreme imbalance suggests downside pressure may persist to flush out weak long hands before a genuine reversal takes place. 📊 COT (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-Commercials increased both long (+663) and short (+449) positions → uncertain stance but slight USD strengthening EUR Futures: Non-Commercials increased long (+6,284) and short (+8,990) positions, but net increase favors the bears This shift signals a bearish turn in sentiment among large speculators, indicating short-term downward pressure. 📈 Seasonality In July, EUR/USD historically tends to rise, but: This year’s price action is underperforming the seasonal pattern, showing relative weakness August is historically flat to slightly bearish Seasonality does not currently support a strong bullish continuation ✅ Strategic Conclusion Current Bias: Bearish-neutral (with short-term bullish bounce expected) A technical rebound toward 1.1720–1.1750 is likely (liquidity void + RSI bounce + retail imbalance) However, 1.1720–1.1750 is a key supply zone to monitor for fresh shorts, in line with: Dollar-supportive COT data Overcrowded long retail positioning Weak seasonal context 🧭 Operational Plan: Avoid holding longs above 1.1750 without macro confirmation Monitor price action between 1.1720–1.1750 for potential short re-entry Clean breakout above 1.1780 → shift bias to neutral/bullish
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURUSD GOING SHORT AFTER A PULL BACKPrice has completed a corrective pullback into a well-defined supply zone, where it has now mitigated previous unfilled sell orders. We’re seeing early signs of bearish intent and anticipate a continuation to the downside as supply takes control. 💡 Key Notes: • Trend is bearish unless price closes above the mitigated supply zone. • If price returns to the supply zone without breaking lower, it may become a distribution range. • Patience and confirmation are critical — no need to rush entry without market structure break. Let me know your thoughts
Short
by AFOKE
6
€/$: Fractal Geometry (Cycle 2000-2022)🏛️ Research Notes Research on order in chaos using scaling laws and math sequences found in nature. Sierpinski triangle will be used as basic heatmap layer - orienteer for next buildups. Cross-cycle interconnection 3 cycle knot Considering the fact that structurally current price is in a new cycle, the core structure which is previous cycle can be extended with another layer that emphasizes phase of the cycle in its angle. Extended Fibonacci Sierpinski Triangle should look like this:
by fract
6
EURUSD: Buy or Sell?Dear friends! On our 1D chart, after careful observation, we can see that a wedge pattern is forming. After EURUSD breaks out of the previous trend and completes the correction phase, a new downtrend is likely to be established. Adam's target is to break above the 1.16000 support level and head towards the lower support level of 1.140000, which is where the pine attracts a large amount of buyers. And you, do you think the price will go up or down? What is the target for your thinking?
Short
by Adam_Scalping
5
EURUSD: Buyers Like the New Trade Deals With The US!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: EURUSD Buyers reacting positively to the announcements of trade deals with the US. Longs are the play until we see a bearish break of significant structure. FOMC and NFP looming, so be careful the markets don't reverse on your trades! Wait patiently for buy setups. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Long
by RT_Money
14
Closed Longs, Now Selling Rallies on EURUSD ReversalAs mentioned in my previous posts, I’m been bullish on EURUSD in the medium term, targeting 1.20 and even beyond. But no pair—especially not EURUSD, which tends to move more steadily and rationally—goes up in a straight line. ________________________________________ 🔹 Last week, the pair stalled just below 1.18, and I decided to close my long trade with a +150 pip gain. That proved to be a wise call, as price dropped hard shortly after. ________________________________________ 📉 What’s happening now? • EURUSD has broken below the rising trendline • More importantly, it’s broken below the neckline of a double top pattern • Now trading around 1.1535 This opens the door for a deeper correction, and I expect we could see a test of the 1.1150–1.1100 zone by the end of summer. ________________________________________ 📌 Trading Plan: • I’m now in sell-the-rally mode • Ideal short entry: around 1.1650, where we also get a favorable 1:3+ risk-reward • Watch also for interim support around 1.1400 ________________________________________ Conclusion: The bigger picture remains bullish— but this correction looks healthy and isn’t done yet. Selling rallies makes more sense now, until the structure tells us otherwise. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
6
DeGRAM | EURUSD dropped below the support level📊 Technical Analysis ● EURUSD confirmed a double rejection below long-term resistance with two lower highs and broke channel support at 1.1567. ● Price is now trending within a descending channel toward 1.1363, with lower targets pointing into the 1.12–1.11 demand zone. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● US Q2 GDP surprised to the upside, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish tone, while Eurozone CPI inflation cooled below forecast. ● Diverging central bank trajectories continue to widen yield differentials in favor of the dollar, sustaining bearish euro flows. ✨ Summary Short bias confirmed below 1.1567. Break of 1.1450 opens path to 1.1363 ➜ 1.1200 zone. Watch for rallies to fade below trendline. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
3
EUR/USD – Short from Channel TopHi Traders , Took a short on EUR/USD after price rejected the top of the ascending channel. Entry: 1.17545 Stop Loss: 1.18015 Take Profit: 1.17098 📌 Why I took this trade: Price is showing rejection at the upper trendline + near resistance (R1). RSI is cooling off, so I’m expecting a move back to the demand zone around 1.1710. Clean structure, low risk, good reward. Just my take, not financial advice. What do you think — continuation or rejection?
Short
by Trading-On-Top
6
EURUSD short to 1.121Hello Traders, Factoring in the fundamentals such as US EUR trade deal, $600 billion of investment into US, $350 billion investment from South Korea. 4hr chart, trading under 1 day up trendline. Was strong sell signal from 1.177 last Thursday. 200ema starting to turn downwards Still close to upper regression channel that began July 1st, believe it is still in play. 6 hr and 12 hr block still support, strong rejection at 4h bearish block. not expecting much else today since it's Friday. Still targeting 1.121 in August Originally entered trade at 1.172 area, added 3 times on the way down, originally targeting 1.143 but with the ever evolving trade deal news that I believe to be bullish for the USD I moved target to 1.121. Goodluck to you all.
Short
by Asap321
5
Structure break and trend shift🚀 After a clean breakout from the descending channel, price formed a rising structure—but momentum is fading. 🔴 Lower highs are forming and we’ve got a clear rejection at the top of the ascending channel. 📌 Trade Idea: Entry: 1.1739 Stop Loss: 1.1778 (above recent high) Take Profit: 1.1676 (structure support) Risk-Reward: ~1:2 ✅ 🧠 Why this setup? Structure break & retest in action Bearish pressure building after bullish exhaustion Reversal patterns aligning at key zones (circles show historic turning points)
by MrJama
3
POTENTIAL EURUSD SHORT OPPORTUNITY...POSITION TRADEHello hello TradingView family! Hope you guys are doing amazingly well! Just wanted to come on here and make another post for a potential longer term opportunity I am seeing on the major currency pair EURUSD. So put your seat belts on and let's dive in!! OK so I'm going to keep this very very simple. Not because I don't want to go in depth but because my trading is very simple and I'm just going to give it to you straight. So here are the points 1. Price is @ monthly supply 2. Price has made new highs & sitting at a monthly fib extension 3. Monthly RSI overbought conditions 4. Weekly has bearish divergence forming 5. Weekly/Daily buyer is slowing down Make sense? If not..then I know you will figure it out. Watch for price to potentially poke a little higher but nice confluences for a fall in price. Appreciate you all!
Short
by JosePips
12
EURUSD: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why: Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURUSD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Long
by UnitedSignals
3
On the look out for a break above 1.14829 to confirm BullishHi Friends - Here is my own bias. Not a financial advise. 1. Buying intent spotted after the break of structure on the 1h time frame at 1.14381 BOS 2. Price retraced back to the liquidity that drove price back up on July 10th at 1.14005 3. We are looking out for price to close above 1.14805 and seek liquidity to move to the up side. 4. Possible consolidation between 1.14024 and 1.14858 Violation of the setup above will lead to a movement to the downside. See you on the profitable end. The Surge!
Long
by The_Surge
1
EURUSD may fall, but it's all about the FOMC DecisionEURUSD may fall, but it's all about the FOMC Decision During the first 2 weeks of July, EURUSD fell from 1.18000 to 1.1550 and then the price rose again due to renewed tariffs. Trump's comments regarding Powell and tariffs, according to which the EU and the US may reach an agreement soon, renewed the strength of EURUSD. However, this time it is more related to the FOMC. If the FED cuts rates, EURUSD can drop further. When they didn't cut rates, the USD was weak or didn't move at all. Let's see. If Powell makes any surprises this time, EURUSD could fall, as shown in the chart, from 1.1800 to 1.1550, which is almost 250 pips lower. Key support zones: 1.1660 and 1.1580 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
2