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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, price has broken below our sell entry level at 1.03536, confirming a potential bearish continuation. A retest of this level may present further downside opportunities, with our take profit set at 1.02603, aligning with a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The stop loss is placed at 1.04498, above a key resistance level, ensuring the bearish setup remains valid while allowing for natural price fluctuations. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Is the Bull still alive...After the Trump tariffs gap last week, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced a significant gap down but recovered nicely. GBP/USD positions were closed at a small profit to protect overall risk but still holding long positions on the EUR/USD and continue to look for 1.0600 as long as price does not exceed 1.0200. Expecting some volatility this upcoming week especially with Fed chairman Powell testifying on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Will keep an eye on price action and it's development. Aside from FX, still holding SOXL and looking for the gap to be filled but keeping a close eye on the breakdown below $24. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
EURUSDUnited states economic events and data releases could affect the EUR/USD's trade directional bias,Key Events and Potential Impacts to watch is as follow: Fed Chair Powell's Testimony (February 11),Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress, and his remarks will be closely scrutinized for clues about future monetary policy decisions. A hawkish tone (emphasizing inflation concerns and potential rate hikes) would likely strengthen the USD and push EUR/USD lower. A dovish tone (highlighting economic risks and hinting at potential rate cuts) could weaken the USD, allowing EUR/USD to rise. Another data print will be US CPI Data on (February 12) which will bring volatility in the space. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released and if the data is Higher-than-expected CPI and Core CPI figures (above forecasts of 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y) could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, strengthening the USD and pushing EUR/USD lower. Lower-than-expected CPI data could suggest easing inflation, potentially leading the Fed to consider a more dovish approach, weakening the USD and allowing EUR/USD to rise. EUR/USD Technical Outlook and Key Levels: Bearish Signals: The EUR/USD pair is at risk of falling further, after breaking my demand floor on weekly. Technical indicators also support a bearish continuation, unless we have a weekly break and close above the supply roof on negative united states data print this week. EURUSD Upside Potential is possible if The US Dollar (USD) fails to resume its rally, that will give Euro small upward traction ,but they have to break supply roof first and turn to demand floor to upswing Trade War Impact: The US trade war tensions could continue to influence the EUR/USD. Prolonged tariffs could lead to higher US inflation, potentially compelling the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance and strengthen the USD. Overall Directional Bias: Bearish Tentency: Given the technical signals and potential for a hawkish Fed stance, the EUR/USD may be biased toward the downside. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on market structure strategy which i developed for free and should not be considered financial advice at any given time ,don't come cry like a baby Trade with caution and conduct your own research.
by Shavyfxhub
A detailed explanation of parallel price channels and how to use📚 A detailed explanation of parallel price channels and how to use them in technical analysis 📈 Parallel price channels are one of the most important technical analysis tools that help traders identify **trends, entry and exit points, and potential levels of reversal or breakout**. --- ## **🟢 First: What is a parallel price channel?** A parallel price channel is a **price range within which the price moves regularly**, and is defined by **two parallel lines** that represent **dynamic support and resistance**. 📌 Channels can be: 1️⃣ **Ascending**: When the price is in an upward trend with increasing bottoms and tops. 2️⃣ **Downward**: When the price is in a downward trend with decreasing bottoms and tops. 3️⃣ **Horizontal (Sideways)**: When the price moves sideways between fixed levels. --- ## **🟢 Second: Components of the price channel** 🔹 **The upper limit of the channel (moving resistance)**: Represents a selling area where the price tends to reverse downward when touched. 🔹 **The lower limit of the channel (moving support)**: Represents a buying area where the price tends to rebound upward when touched. 🔹 **The middle line (in some channels)**: Helps identify rebound and balance points within the channel. --- ## **🟢 Third: How to draw a price channel?** ### **✏️ Steps to draw a price channel manually:** 1️⃣ Determine the market direction (upward, downward, sideways). 2️⃣ Draw the main trend line by connecting **two major peaks or bottoms**. 3️⃣ Copy this line and place it **parallel** on the other side of the price to form the channel. 4️⃣ Make sure that the price moves between the two lines logically without a clear breakout. ✍ **Practical example:** 📈 If you have two rising bottoms in an upward trend, you can draw a line that passes through them and then copy it upwards at the peaks, to form an ascending channel. --- ## **🟢 Fourth: How to use the price channel in trading?** ### **1️⃣ Trading inside the channel** (Strategy 1) ✅ **Buy from the lower limit of the channel** (at the moving support). ✅ **Sell at the upper limit of the channel** (at the moving resistance). 📌 This strategy is effective in stable markets without strong breakouts. 📍 **Example of trading inside the channel:** - In the ascending channel, if the price touches the lower limit, the purchase is made with a **stop loss below the channel**. - In the descending channel, if the price touches the upper limit, the sale is made with a **stop loss above the channel**. --- ### **2️⃣ Trading when the channel is broken** (Strategy 2) 🔴 **Breaking the upper limit of the channel** → indicates **continuation of the upward trend** (buy signal). 🔴 **Breaking the lower limit of the channel** → indicates **continuation of the downward trend** (sell signal). 📍 **Example of breaking the channel:** - If the price is inside an ascending channel, then **breaks the upper limit**, a **buy deal** can be entered after a retest. - If the price is inside a descending channel, then **breaks the lower limit**, a **sell deal** can be entered after a retest. --- ## **🟢 Fifth: Analysis of the attached image** ✅ **In the attached chart, we have an ascending channel within a downward trend**, and the channel was broken downwards, which led to **continuation of the downward trend**. ✅ Areas have been identified: - **SL (Stop Loss)** → Stop loss above the channel to prevent risks. - **LOGIN** → Entry point after breaking the channel. - **TP (Take Profit)** → Take profits based on the channel size. --- ## **🟢 Sixth: Professional tips for using price channels** 💡 **Combine them with other indicators** such as RSI or MACD to confirm signals. 💡 **Monitoring volume**: When the channel is broken with high trading volume, the break is stronger. 💡 **Time analysis**: Using channels on different frames gives better accuracy. 💡 **Use appropriate stop loss** to protect capital from false breakouts. --- 🚀 **💡 Summary:** Price channels are a powerful tool for identifying trends and entry and exit points, and are used in trading within the channel or when a price break occurs. Their accuracy can be improved by combining them with other indicators and understanding volume and price momentum.
Education
by omar_elliot
EURUSD My Opinion! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0413 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.0336 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD Selling OpportunitiesDaily swing Structure = Bearish Daily Internal Structure = Bearish Narrative We are pro-trend which means sell EURUSD. All structures are in alignment. 4Hrs Swing structure = Bullish Internal Structure = Bearish What we can observe is that daily swing, daily internal and 4hrs internal are all in alignment. We now know that the demand zones created as the market was in the pullback phase are reaction points and that the supply zones should hold if the bearish internal trend is to hold. Given the 2 facts, we should continue selling Targeting the internal weak low as the low hanging fruit. Also, it is important to note that we are creating some sorta supply chain, which further cements idea of a strong selling pressure coming into the market. So any pullback into the marked supply orderblock should give us a chance for entry.
Short
by DagemFxStudio
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week, the Euro reapproached our designated Mean Resistance level of 1.050 and reversed its upward momentum. This trend indicates a continuation of the downward price movement, establishing a new support level marked at 1.042. Further declines may materialize, with potential targets including Mean Support at 1.030, a weaker Key Support at 1.024, the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020, and the outermost target Outer Currency Dip at 1.005. Contrariwise, should the anticipated downward correction not transpire, the Eurodollar may experience an upward rally, possibly revisiting the Mean Resistance level of 1.050 and subsequently engaging with the Inner Currency Rally target of 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD BUY TRADE SETUP🔥 Scenario 1: BUY Setup – If Smart Money is Reaccumulating (Valid IF price retraces into demand zone and confirms bullish continuation.) 📌 Key Confluences for Buys: ✔ HTF Bullish Structure Shift (BOS) Confirmed Above 1.0450. ✔ Unmitigated Bullish Order Block (OB) at 1.0400 - 1.0420. ✔ Liquidity Grab Below 1.0400 Triggers Smart Money Entry. ✔ Discount Zone (1.0350 - 1.0400) Ideal for Institutional Buys. ✅ Buy Plan Entry Zone: 1.0400 - 1.0420 (Institutional Demand Zone). Stop Loss (SL): Below 1.0350 (Safe from stop hunts). Take Profits (TPs): TP1: 1.0480 (Break-Even Point). TP2: 1.0500 (Liquidity Target). TP3: 1.0550 (Extended Target). Trade Type: Swing / Reaccumulation Play. Confidence Level: HIGH (If liquidity grab confirms). 🔹 Execution Strategy: ✔ Option 1: Aggressive Buy → Limit Order at 1.0400. ✔ Option 2: Confirmation Buy → Wait for BOS above 1.0450, then enter on pullback. ALTERNATIVE: 🔥 Scenario 2: SELL Setup – If Smart Money is Distributing (Valid IF price sweeps above 1.0500 and rejects bearish.) 📌 Key Confluences for Sells: ✔ Bearish Order Block (OB) at 1.0500 - 1.0550. ✔ FVG at 1.0480 - 1.0500 That Needs Mitigation. ✔ Sell-Side Liquidity Below 1.0350 – Next Target Zone. ✔ If 1.0350 Breaks, Extended Target = 1.0300 - 1.0250. ✅ Sell Plan Entry Zone: 1.0500 - 1.0550 (Institutional Supply Zone). Stop Loss (SL): Above 1.0570 (Safe from stop hunts). Take Profits (TPs): TP1: 1.0400 (First Liquidity Pool). TP2: 1.0350 (Major SSL Target). TP3: 1.0300 - 1.0250 (Extended TP). Trade Type: Intraday Short / Liquidity Grab Setup. Confidence Level: MEDIUM (Needs Confirmation at Supply Zone). 🔹 Execution Strategy: ✔ Option 1: Aggressive Sell → Limit Order at 1.0500 - 1.0550. ✔ Option 2: Confirmation Sell → Wait for bearish BOS under 1.0450, then enter on pullback. 🚨 STRICT SMART MONEY RULES 🚨 🔴 NO BUY IF: Price fails to reclaim 1.0400 (Risk of further downside). No liquidity grab occurs below 1.0400 (Means Smart Money hasn’t accumulated). 🔴 NO SELL IF: Price fails to sweep 1.0500 - 1.0550. Price aggressively breaks back above 1.0570 (Confirming bullish momentum). 🔥 FINAL INSTITUTIONAL DECISION – TRADE OR WAIT? 🔸 Ideal BUY: If price sweeps 1.0400 and reclaims bullish. 🔸 Ideal SELL: If price sweeps 1.0500 and rejects bearish. 🔴 NO TRADE? If price stays between 1.0450 - 1.0500 (No liquidity grab). 💡 Summary: Trade Like Banks, Not Retail! ✔ Smart Money ALWAYS operates around liquidity grabs and inefficiencies. ✔ We never force trades—we let price confirm its direction first. ✔ Institutional patience = Institutional profits. 💯 Now, we WAIT and EXECUTE like a hedge fund! 🚀🔥
Long
by jibkhan111
EURUSD long 3.67RR1. Downtrend Reversal: The price was initially in a downtrend, as indicated by the descending trendline. 2. Breakout Confirmation: The price broke above the 1-hour trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal. 3. Buy Limit Strategy: Instead of entering immediately, a buy limit order was placed at a key support zone after the breakout. 4. EMA 21 as Support: The price respected the 21 EMA, confirming bullish momentum. Strong Bullish Move: After triggering the buy limit, the price surged upwards, resulting in a profitable trade. 5. Risk Management: Stop-loss was placed below a key support zone, minimizing risk while allowing room for price fluctuations.
Long
by jamesprivado20
EUR/USD Market Update: Bullish Momentum in Play CAPITALCOM:EURUSD We just updated our analysis according to the latest price action. Today's move gave us solid confirmation of the bullish trend. The market pulled back to 1.04276, touched our support level perfectly, and then bounced back up—just as expected. We've adjusted our star pattern while keeping the same key levels intact. Chart Analysis: Current Situation: The price is currently hovering around 1.04878, showing good strength after the bounce. Support Level: 1.04276 proved itself as a solid support. The price respected this level, giving us more confidence in our bullish bias. First Target: Our immediate target is 1.05415. This level lines up nicely with both our geometric grid and historical resistance. If the price keeps this momentum, it shouldn't take long to reach it. Key Levels to Watch: 1.06440: This is the next resistance level. If we break through 1.05415, this is where we’ll focus. 1.07469 and 1.08626: These are more ambitious targets but definitely possible if the bullish momentum continues. 1.10834: This would be a real win, indicating a strong shift in the overall trend. What the Chart Tells Us: The updated chart shows how our geometric grid aligns with price action. The white "star" pattern gives us a roadmap, and the red dashed lines highlight important time pivots. These intersections often guide the price, so I’m keeping a close eye on them. The recent "choch 4h" at 1.03738 marks a change of character on the 4-hour chart. It’s a good sign that the bearish phase might be behind us, and we’re in a new bullish cycle. Bottom Line: We’re on track toward 1.05415, and if the market keeps this pace, higher targets could be in play. I’ll be watching how the price reacts around our geometric intersections and adjusting as needed. The plan is simple: ride the bullish wave but stay ready in case the market throws us a curveball.
Long
by QuantumFusion