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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

Still keeping a close eye on a potential USD pop...Although the EUR/USD and GBP/USD popped higher late last week, I'm still keeping a close eye to stay short on the EUR/USD considering the bearish rising broadening pattern coupled with a yearly pivot point inter-median level and negative divergence on the MACD. This is all based on the daily chart. Many factors are in play right now with what's going on between Israel and Iran along with FOMC this week and Tariffs still in play. On a purely technical analysis point of view, I potentially expect a bullish retracement in the USD while remaining long term bearish across the board. we'll see how this one develops. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
EUR/USD Retesting Broken Resistance EUR/USD has recently broken above the ascending channel and is now retesting the previous breakout zone between 1.15205 and 1.15325. This area may act as new support. If the level holds, we may see continuation toward 1.15701, with potential extension to 1.16309 if bullish momentum continues. A confirmed break back below 1.1520 would invalidate the bullish idea and suggest a false breakout. 🔹 Support zone (retest): 1.15205 – 1.15325 🔹 Target 1: 1.15701 🔹 Target 2: 1.16309 🔹 Timeframe: 1H 🔹 Structure: Retest of breakout level
Long
by piporia
EURUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For this long off 1.1193 targeting 1.1909 vs. a retrace back under 1.1193, I’d peg the probabilities roughly as: Outcome Probability Rally above 1.1909 first ~75% Drop below 1.1193 first ~25% Rationale Bullish breakout: EUR/USD has convincingly flipped 1.115–1.120 into support and cleared the 1.15–1.16 ceiling with follow‐through. Momentum: Daily candles show clean advances with little upper‐wick rejection; RSI/MACD remain in bullish territory without overbought exhaustion. Bear case stretch: To return under 1.1193, price would need to wipe out the entire breakout and break multiple support layers (1.1550, 1.1400, 1.1200) — a lower‐probability scenario absent a major macro shock.
Long
by Gamblers-Fallacy
Long IdeaWhen this occurs, it is not uncommon to see price approach the line, and "throw a spike" over the line. At other times price might approach but not quite reach the previous high or low. This tells you that the current price is already on the correct side. You will therefore expect the price to "bounce down” or “bounce up" as the case may be. This will most often occur around the time of the London open. You should recall that this is likely to be part of the market makers aim of keeping traders trapped. If they've already made a high for instance, and there are positions trapped here then they will not want to push price above it again but will then approach it, perhaps even spike with an enlarged spread and pull away again.
by k45bryant
Caught EU clean today. Waited patiently for that textbook 30M liquidity sweep, then stalked the LTF entry like a sniper. No rushing—just letting price do its thing until it stopped running. Then we pounced. 💥 Execution was sharp. Setup was smooth. This is how we trade over here—precision, patience, and purpose. 📉 Stay tuned for the breakdown and upcoming analysis. Would love to hear y’all thoughts on this one 👀👇 #SMC #Forex #InducementKing #EUTrade #SmartMoneyFlow Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EUR/USD Eyes Weekly Resistance as DXY Falls on Geopolitical Fear *EUR/USD Analysis* Recent global events particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran and associated political instability have contributed to a sustained downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The index is currently approaching major historical support levels, which further reinforces the weakening dollar narrative. Inversely, EUR/USD continues to exhibit bullish momentum. The pair is steadily climbing and is now approaching a key weekly resistance level. If this resistance is broken, we anticipate a strong push toward our final take-profit (TP) target. At present: Market Structure remains bullish We are watching for signs of continuation such as: Change of character (ChoCH) Break of structure (BoS) Demand zone confirmations We're currently scanning for a low-risk entry upon confirmation preferably via a clean pullback or bullish engulfing confirmation on the lower timeframes. The goal is to catch the next leg up with solid risk-reward. For now, it’s a waiting game. The trend is our friend, and we’ll let price action show us the way. Let’s see how this bad boy plays out.
Long
by Onyukwu
Rising Geopolitical Risk Could Pressure EURUSDEURUSD attempted to break the upper line of the trend channel yesterday, but with the start of the Israeli attack, a quick selloff followed. Rising geopolitical risks typically increase demand for U.S. debt and the dollar. As a result, EURUSD’s rally is facing short-term bearish pressure. The first key support level at 1.1495 is being tested. If it holds, there is a chance for another attempt at the upper line. However, if it breaks, 1.1440 and 1.1370 are the next support levels to watch in the short term.
by ftdsystem
EUR/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Bearish SetupA new SELL signal has emerged on the EUR/USD chart, signaling potential downward movement. SELL Signal: Activated at 1.16500 after price tapped into a supply zone and rejected from a weak high, indicating a potential short-term reversal. TP Zones: TP1: 1.14881 TP2: 1.14284 Final TP: 1.13688 This setup offers a potential profit range of 160 to 280 pips. Market Structure: Price is reacting strongly from the supply area and failing to break the weak high. With bearish momentum building, price may continue down toward the imbalance and demand zones. Remember to manage your trades carefully and ensure this setup fits your overall strategy. Stay sharp and trade responsibly!
Short
by TradersJourneys
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 13, 2025 EURUSDEvents to pay attention today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Foreign trade balance 17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index EURUSD : EUR/USD interrupted its four-day winning streak, retreating from 1.16310, its highest level since October 2021, and is currently trading around 1.15300 in Asian hours on Friday. The pair is depreciating as the US dollar (USD) gains support as traders shift to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to rising tensions in the Middle East. Israel has attacked dozens of targets across Iran to eliminate its nuclear programme. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel could face a missile and drone strike after Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, Axios reports. In addition, White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement: ‘Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not participating in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is to protect American troops in the region.’ ‘President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary measures to protect our troops and are in close contact with our regional partners.’ ‘Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,’ Rubio added. However, the decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited, as the US dollar (USD) may face difficulties after US President Donald Trump's new threat to extend steel tariffs from 23 June to imported ‘steel-derived products’ such as household appliances, e.g. dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially introduced in March at 25% and then doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time that the scope of the duties has been expanded. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.15300, SL 1.15500, TP 1.14400
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Euro hits 2025 high as ECB signals end to cuts | FX ResearchThe US dollar has extended declines in the aftermath of Wednesday's softer US CPI print. Interestingly enough, the data has failed to inspire much confidence in risk assets—presumably due to distractions around the escalation in geopolitical tension in the Middle East. President Trump's push for unilateral tariffs within two weeks ahead of the July 9th deadline has also added pressure, while Japan's PMIA noted persistent trade tensions with the US. The FX market has also been selling US dollars due to tariff-related risks, with the euro outperforming. The euro has not only extended to a fresh yearly high but has traded up to its highest level against the dollar since October 2021. ECB officials, including Schnabel and Lagarde, signaling that interest rate cuts may soon end, has only added to the euro bid. Despite weak UK data, including a negative 0.3% GDP drop, the pound has also been better bid. Upcoming US producer prices and jobless claims data are now in focus.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD broke the Resistance level 1.14960 👀 Possible scenario: The euro rose 0.56% against the dollar on June 11 after President Trump signaled flexibility in trade talks, suggesting a possible delay to the July 8 tariff deadline. This eased market fears of escalating tensions. Meanwhile, growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, driven by soft data and dovish comments, added pressure on the dollar and boosted demand for alternative currencies. Markets now eye the June 12 U.S. PPI report (expected +0.1% core). A surprise uptick could push EUR/USD toward the 1.15780 level. ✅ Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.13640 Resistance level is located at 1.16440
by MaxOnMarkets
Judas Swing Monday Recap – Sticking to the Plan Pays 09/06/2025In case you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy, here’s the strategy in a nutshell: It’s a classic price manipulation strategy where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), usually after the 00:00–08:30 EST window, before sharply reversing. This tactic is often used by smart money to trap retail traders around key highs/lows, followed by a reversal into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) for entry confirmation. We began Monday spotting a textbook Judas Swing on FX:EURUSD which was our first trade of the day. Price took out session lows, grabbing liquidity, then gave us a break of structure to the upside and a clean reversal into the FVG. We entered long with our stop loss below the manipulation low. The trade moved nicely into profit and came within points of our target but just as we were anticipating a clean 1:2, price stalled and reversed aggressively, stopping us out. Trade Outcome: Loss Risk-Reward: -1% Lesson: Even the most valid setups will sometimes fail The next Judas swing setup came on $GBPUSD. Price swept the low of the zone, then gave a break of structure, with price retracing into the FVG. We entered long, placing the stop loss 10 pips below entry price. The trade rallied hard post-entry, hitting our target with minimal drawdown Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: +2% This is why we take every valid setup. The win here offset the earlier FX:EURUSD loss, keeping us net even on the day at this point The final Judas swing setup on Monday was on OANDA:AUDUSD , and it couldn’t have been cleaner. After a strong sweep of previous lows, price reversed and broke structure convincingly. An FVG formed and price retraced into it beautifully. We entered long, placing the stop below the liquidity sweep. Price then rallied steadily throughout the session, and retraced almost hitting our stop loss but turned around and hit our 1:2 target. Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: +2% Despite starting the day with a loss, staying disciplined and trading all valid Judas setups left us with: 1 loss ( FX:EURUSD -1%) 2 wins ( FX:GBPUSD +2%, OANDA:AUDUSD +2%) Net Gain: +3R This is why a rules-based approach beats emotional trading. Stick to the process, and the edge takes care of the rest.
by CleoFinance