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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

Bearish ContinuationI am expecting price to continue lower from the newly formed area of supply zone. For now price has already mitigated the EQ of the bullish swing range so this is a medium probability trade setup. When price breaks the structure in HTF trading from the fresh demand zone in support of HTF bullish continuation would be much higher probability than this. But since I am going to use confirmation entry at the area of 1hr supply zone if it is a low probability I might not get the entry.
Short
by fxtrends28
Golden Opportunity with EURUSDEURUSD is maintaining a strong bullish structure, with a key support zone around 1.16600. Currently, the price is consolidating just below the 1.18100 resistance and may experience a short-term pullback before continuing higher. Bullish Supporting Factors: – The US dollar is weakening amid expectations that the Fed will act cautiously ahead of the upcoming jobs report. – Eurozone PMI has shown signs of recovery, lending further strength to the euro. Suggested Strategy: Wait for buy opportunities around the 1.16600 – 1.17000 area if bullish reversal signals appear. The target remains 1.18100 and potentially higher if upward momentum continues.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD: Uptrend Targeting 1.18600EURUSD is maintaining a solid bullish structure after breaking above the 1.17300 zone. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.1800 and may see a minor pullback before pushing toward the 1.18600 target. The main support comes from a weaker USD following Fed Chair Powell’s “patient” remarks, along with strong PMI data from the EU. EURUSD has now posted 10 consecutive days of gains, signaling strong upward momentum. As long as price holds above the FVG zone near 1.1780, the bullish trend remains intact, with 1.18600 as the next potential upside target.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
Wedge Top Short ScalpIt looks like EURUSD is forming a Wedge Top extended from the 20 EMA, presenting a Short Scalp opportunity targeting the move back to the EMA in the next few days. Depending on how the current daily candle closes, this could be a good trade, so I'll be watching it today. The bull trend is strong on this one, so we should expect a quick resolution on this short trade, otherwise, we have to cut it off quickly. I don't wan to be against this trend. After the move back to the EMA, we will potentially have a Breakout Pullback opportunity to trade With Trend. So there's no need to rush.
Short
by lestercrest
MY TCB STRATEGY🔍 Detailed Breakdown ✅ Trend Structure 1H and 4H trends are strongly bullish. Clean higher highs and higher lows. Momentum shows clear breakout from range on June 21–24. 🟦 EP1 Zone (1.1600–1.1615) – Minor Pullback Risk: Price still within supply; not yet a confirmed retracement. If entry is taken here, price must: Form a bullish engulfing or low-timeframe FVG at the zone. Hold above 1.1595 to remain valid. ✅ Good for momentum re-entry. ❗ Risk of getting trapped if deeper retracement (EP2) is needed. 🔲 EP2 Zone (1.1580–1.1600) – Optimal Confluence Aligns with: H4 trendline Breaker block Prior demand + FVG If price pulls back here, it offers: Best RR and lowest risk entry Ideal setup for Set & Forget ✅ This is the premium zone for longs if price dips. 🎯 Targets TP1: 1.17250 – Previous high and clean liquidity magnet TP2: 1.17530 – Next external liquidity (major high) Both targets are realistic in bullish continuation scenario. ⚖️ Entry Comparison Table Zone Entry Level Pros Cons R:R Est. EP1 1.1610 Close to momentum, smaller pullback High risk of rejection/fakeout ~1:2 EP2 1.1585 Trendline + breaker + clean RR May not reach (missed entry risk) ~1:2.8+ 🔔 Alerts Recommendation 1.1590: Buy alert for EP2 zone entry 1.1625: Bullish break confirmation 1.1545: Invalidation level (structure break) 🧠 TCBFlow Final Thought: “EP1 is for aggressive traders. EP2 is for patient execution. The market owes you nothing – it only rewards precision.” 📊 Final Score Setup Score % EP1 7/10 70% ⚠️ Medium Confidence (Requires confirmation) EP2 9/10 90% ✅ High Confidence (Best TCB zone) 🧠 Summary: EP1 is early, momentum-based — only enter if you see strong bullish PA. SET and FORGET EP2 is clean, structured, and high-confluence — best suited for Set & Forget with minimum emotional interference.
Long
by J1000PIPSfx
EURUSD is moving within the 1.15900 -1.18500 range👉🏼 Possible scenario: The euro gained 0.16% on July 1, nearing its highest level against the dollar since 2021. Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone on rate cuts, reinforcing expectations of possible easing if economic data weakens. Tensions between President Trump and Powell, including Trump's push for lower rates, have raised concerns over Fed independence and added pressure on the dollar. Traders now await ECB President Lagarde’s speech and the U.S. ADP jobs report on July 2, which could influence EURUSD direction. A weak jobs print may send the pair toward 1.17500. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.15900 Resistance level is located at 1.18500
by MaxOnMarkets
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.177. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.171. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Rally May Be Under ThreatEUR/USD Analysis: Rally May Be Under Threat The euro has appreciated by approximately 15% against the US dollar this year, as confidence in the United States continues to wane. As ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted in an interview at CNBC: “There is a degree of reorientation by global investors towards the euro.” At the same time, officials at the European Central Bank have expressed concern that the rapid strengthening of the euro could undermine efforts to stabilise inflation at 2%. They warn that a move above $1.20 may pose risks for inflation and the competitiveness of export-oriented firms — an issue raised during the ECB’s ongoing ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. Could EUR/USD Reach the $1.20 Level? From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD is showing bearish signals: → If the early April rally (coinciding with Trump’s announcement of new tariffs) is taken as the initial impulse wave A→B, and the May low is interpreted as the end of the B→C corrective move, then, according to Fibonacci Extensions, the pair has now risen to a key resistance zone around 1.1850 (as indicated by the arrow on the chart). → In addition, the RSI indicator signals strong overbought conditions, while the price is hovering near the upper boundary of the ascending channel — a level that typically acts as resistance. Given these factors, we could assume that EUR/USD may be in a vulnerable position, potentially facing a short-term correction — possibly towards the lower boundary of the channel, reinforced by support at the 1.1620 level. However, this does not negate the longer-term bullish outlook for the euro amid prevailing fundamental conditions. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Euro H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.1744 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.1660 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.1829 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
Dollar dives as Fed rate cut bets grow | FX ResearchThe US dollar faced renewed pressure at the start of July, with the dollar index dropping to its lowest since February of 2022, marking a 10.8% decline in the first half of 2025—the worst since 1973. Driven by geopolitical tensions and Trump trade policies, President Trump's ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the Fed's high interest rates, combined with Goldman Sachs's revised forecast of three rate cuts starting in September, signal a dovish shift that could further weaken the dollar. Eurodollar surged to its highest since September of 2021, though ECB Vice President De Guindos noted potential concerns if it exceeds 1.20, while the EU considers accepting a US 10% tariff in exchange for lower rates on key sectors. Emerging market ETFs saw $1.22 billion in inflows last week, reflecting de-dollarization trends amid easing Middle East tensions and Fed rate cut bets. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin PMI rose and Japan’s Q2 Tankan data beat expectations, supporting risk-on sentiment. Today’s focus is on US JOLTS job openings and manufacturing ISM data, alongside an ECB forum panel with key central bank leaders, which could influence market expectations. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD : Up and DownLife’s a ride of highs and lows, A dance of joy, a tide that flows. Up we climb with laughter bright, Down we sink in quiet night. Mountaintop or valley deep, Moments swift or slow to creep. Sunlit days will surely shine, Storms will pass—just give them time. Up again, we spread our wings, Chasing dreams on hopeful strings. Down once more? That’s alright too— Every fall makes strength feel new. So take the highs, embrace the low, Life’s a rhythm, ebb and flow. Up and down, we twist, we bend, But the journey? Worth it, friend. Good luck.
by i_am_siew
#AN012: Early July News and Forex Impact 1. US Debt and Dollar Depreciation The US Senate is debating an ambitious $3.3 trillion fiscal package, fuelling concerns about rising debt. The dollar has lost ground against the euro, hitting its lowest level in nearly four years. Forex Impact: Dollar weakness favors crosses such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Possible rate speculation, with prospects of Fed cuts. 2. NATO Summit and Increased Defense Spending At the NATO summit in The Hague, the commitment is to increase to 5% of GDP by 2035. This strengthens European government bonds and the dollar, in view of a safe-haven and new flows into the USD. Forex Impact: Support for the USD, increased volatility on crosses linked to the euro and sterling, potential trade on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. 3. Taiwan dollar appreciation The Taiwan dollar jumped 2.5% as local insurers hedge against dollar decline. Forex Impact: Dollar depreciation slows; Asian crosses such as USD/SGD and USD/KRW under pressure. 4. Global dollar weakness Euro bounces above 1.17 and USD/CHF below 0.80 on weak macro data and Fed cut speculation. Forex Impact: Open to long EUR/USD, short USD/CHF strategies, with potential carry trades. 5. Israel-Iran Ceasefire & Geopolitical Risk Israel-Iran fighting ends, but tensions remain. Markets are monitoring the fallout on oil and safe assets. Forex Impact: Possible increase in geopolitical volatility, with USD, JPY, CHF as a hedge; volatility on oil influences crosses that contain commodities (AUD/USD, CAD/USD). Hi, I'm Andrea Russo, a forex trader, and today I want to talk to you about the impact of the latest global news on currency markets. 🏛️ US debt and fiscal tensions The 3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion in the United States has weakened the dollar. This weakness fuels opportunities on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with potential upside on long positions, but beware of future Fed interventions. ⚔️ NATO towards 5% of GDP for defense The NATO Summit in The Hague marked a paradigm shift: more defense spending means bond issuance and USD flows as a safe-haven. This supports the greenback, making European crosses volatile. 💱 Forex Asia: the case of the Taiwanese dollar Yesterday's rise in the Taiwan dollar is a clear sign of protection against USD weakness. Unicorn to watch for those betting on emerging crosses in Asia. 💶 EUR/CHI and euro crosses recovering EUR/USD rises above 1.17 and USD/CHF falls below 0.80: perfect timing for strategic longs. The market is discounting falling Fed rates, amplifying the momentum on the euro. 🛡️ Geopolitics: fragile truce and geopolitical risk The truce between Israel and Iran currently limits the impact but does not eliminate the risk: safe haven assets such as USD, JPY and CHF remain under pressure for future eventualities. 🎯 Conclusion and trading opportunities Long EUR/USD on euro momentum and USD reflux Monitoring GBP/USD for macro sentiment Watch out for USD/CAD, AUD/USD for oil shocks This article was created with the support of our Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE. Keep following me for more updates.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
TiqGpt setup for todayMARKET NARRATIVE: The EUR/USD currency pair across multiple timeframes shows a consistent bullish momentum, indicating strong buying pressure. Starting from the 1D chart down to the 1m chart, there is a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting institutional accumulation and a lack of significant sell-side pressure. The 1D and 4H charts display a series of green candles with minimal wicks, indicating that the market is in a strong bullish phase with little retracement. The 1H and lower timeframes show some consolidation, but the overall structure remains bullish, suggesting that institutions are still in control of the price action. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, consistently pushing the price higher. The lack of deep pullbacks and the formation of higher lows across timeframes suggest that there is ongoing demand at higher price levels. This is indicative of a liquidity grab above the current highs, where institutions may be targeting stop losses placed by retail traders who are positioned for a reversal. LEARNING POINT: The consistent bullish candles with minimal retracement across higher timeframes (1D, 4H) highlight a strong institutional buying phase, potentially leading to a liquidity sweep above recent highs. SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: EUR/USD ENTRY PRICE: $1.18140 STOP LOSS: $1.17950 (below the recent minor consolidation on the 1H chart) TARGET PRICE: $1.18500 (just below the next psychological round number and potential liquidity pool) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $1.18140 after a minor retracement confirms continued buying interest. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Institutional Accumulation, Liquidity Sweep Targeting URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on the consistency of the bullish structure and lack of significant bearish counter-signals) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum) Risk = $1.18140 - $1.17950 = $0.00190 Reward = $1.18500 - $1.18140 = $0.00360 Ratio = $0.00360 / $0.00190 = 1:1.89 Given that the risk/reward ratio is slightly below the required 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point that could provide a higher reward relative to the risk or adjust the target price if market conditions change to improve the potential reward.
Long
by Mistermoriarty
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks 01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks 01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals. Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar. Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair. German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%. On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004