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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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#AN006 Forex: Dollar, Yen and Emerging Currencies Collapse Hello, I'm Forex trader Andrea Russo, creator of the SwipeUP Elite FX Method that analyzes the market like a Hedge Fund. Today I want to talk to you about the most important economic news of the last few hours and how these are influencing, in real time, the global currency market. ## 🔜 US inflation: is the Fed heading for a cut? The CPI data released yesterday surprised the markets: annual core inflation stopped at +2.8% while the general figure stood at +2.4%, below expectations. This inflationary cooling immediately triggered speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as September. The Dollar Index (DXY) reacted negatively, losing ground and touching the lowest levels since April. ### Forex Impact: * The dollar weakens across the board. * EUR/USD tested the 1.15 area * GBP, JPY and CHF strengthened in counter-balance. ## 🌐 US-China trade tensions: half-way deals Over the past 24 hours, President Trump spoke of "partial progress" in talks with China on tariffs and rare metals. However, the lack of a definitive deal keeps global uncertainty high. Investors are weighing the risk of a new escalation, especially in strategic sectors such as technology and raw materials. ### Forex impact: * AUD and NZD show high volatility. * JPY benefits as a safe haven currency. * Commodity currencies remain reactive to geopolitical developments. ## 📉 ECB: rate cut and expansionary forward guidance The European Central Bank has cut interest rates to 2%, marking the eighth consecutive cut. The governor opened up to further expansionary measures in the third quarter, should inflation fail to rebound towards the 2% target. ### FX Impact: * The euro remains under pressure, despite the dollar weakness. * EUR/CHF in congestion. * EUR/USD in a sideways phase after the initial rally. ## 🚗 Emerging Markets: New Cycle of Strength According to the World Bank, growth in emerging markets will slow to 3.8% in 2025. However, currencies such as the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Mexican peso (MXN) have gained momentum thanks to the dollar weakness and speculative inflows on carry trades. ### FX Impact: * BRL and MXN strengthen. * Long-term opportunities on USD/EM crosses. * Beware of political risks and local inflation. ## ⛽ Oil rally: domino effect on currencies Oil prices rose this week: WTI hit +6%, while Brent marked +4%. The rally was triggered by improvements in US-China relations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. ### Forex Impact: * Strengthening CAD and NOK. * EUR and JPY penalized as net importers. * Correlation opportunities on USD/CAD. ## 🔄 Forex Outlook: what to expect now The market has entered a phase of **macro realignment**: * The dollar is in structural correction. * The euro is struggling between ECB stimulus and USD weakness. * Safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF) remain strong. * Emerging markets and commodity currencies show momentum. In the short term, the key will be the evolution of US data (PPI, retail sales) and new statements from the Fed. Keep following me for updates and operational analysis always based on real data and institutional methodology.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD(20250612) Today's AnalysisMarket news: ① The EU hopes that the trade negotiations will be extended beyond the suspension period set by Trump. ② Bessant: As long as "sincerity" is shown in the negotiations, the Trump administration is willing to extend the current 90-day tariff suspension period beyond July 9. ③ Trump will hold multiple bilateral talks during the G7 summit. ④ The total customs revenue of the United States in May reached a record high of US$23 billion, an increase of nearly four times year-on-year. ⑤ Lutnick: One deal after another will be reached. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.1463 Support and resistance levels: 1.1556 1.1521 1.1499 1.1427 1.1404 1.1369 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.1499, consider buying in, and the first target price is 1.1521 If the price breaks through 1.1463, consider selling in, and the first target price is 1.1427
Long
by NuggetsWarriors
POST NEWS📰 CPI News-Based Trade | EUR/USD Buy We entered a long position on EUR/USD following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a significant deviation from expectations: Actual CPI m/m: 0.2% below forecast This meets our market-moving threshold of ±0.2%, indicating potential USD weakness Weak CPI data reduces Fed rate hike expectations, leading to dollar depreciation 📈 Trade Setup: Direction: Buy EUR/USD Entry Reason: CPI m/m came in lower than forecast, signaling USD weakness Strategy: News-based momentum trade Stop Loss: 1.5 × 15-min ATR Take Profit: 2 × ATR (risk-reward ~1:1.33) 🎯 Objective: Catch the post-news directional move based on fundamental weakness in USD. ATR-based risk management ensures volatility-adjusted levels.
Long
by alisardari
EURUSD SNIPER Smart Money 🎯 EUR/USD – Sniper Smart Money Setup | June 11, 2025 By Talion-Promosale Pair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 1H / 4H Bias: Bullish (Smart Money Shift in Play) Current Price: ~1.1435 🔍 Smart Money Breakdown: Market Structure: Internal structure has shifted bullish after a break of structure (BOS) at 1.1415. Last significant swing low at 1.1380 has been liquidity swept (sell-side taken). Now in a reaccumulation phase with bullish intent. Liquidity Pools: Resting buy-side liquidity above equal highs at 1.1460–1.1470 Clean sell-side liquidity was taken below 1.1380 (classic manipulation sweep) Order Blocks (OB): 1H Bullish OB at 1.1405–1.1420 Price is currently reacting from this OB with displacement and market structure shift Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Imbalance (FVG) from 1.1430 to 1.1450 Potential short retracement into OB zone, before filling imbalance and expansion 🎯 Sniper Entry Plan: 📌 Long Setup: Entry: 1.1420 (inside 1H OB) Stop Loss: 1.1395 (below OB) TP1: 1.1460 (liquidity grab) TP2: 1.1500–1.1520 (premium array zone) Risk: 1:2 to 1:3 Entry confirmation tools: Displacement candle from OB BOS after mitigation RSI divergence confirmation optional --- ,🏂 Smart Note from Talion-Promosale: This is a classic Sniper-style setup: ✅ Liquidity sweep ✅ OB mitigation ✅ Break of structure ✅ FVG to be filled I'm anticipating EUR/USD to run the highs above 1.1460 once 1.1420 is confirmed as a valid mitigation point. --- 📈 Remember: Wait for confirmation. Let price come to your level. The sniper doesn’t chase — he waits. 🥷 #SmartMoney #EURUSD #SniperTrading #OrderBlock #LiquiditySweep #FVG #PriceAction #Forex #TalionPromosale #ICTStyle #TradingView Talion-promosale
Long
by Talion-promosale
1
EURUSD - Longs Today 📉 How This Trade Could Have Played Out – EURUSD, 15min Chart This chart demonstrates a textbook example of how to use the ELFIEDT RSI + 3SD Reversion Strategy with additional RSI divergence to identify a high-probability reversal setup. 🟢 What Happened Here: ✅ Buy Signal Triggered The script printed a green "UP" signal as price dipped sharply — closing beyond the lower volatility band with momentum in oversold territory and a spike in volume. This marked the initial mean reversion opportunity. 📉 RSI Divergence Formed Just after the price made a lower low, the RSI formed a higher low — classic bullish divergence, showing underlying strength even as price dropped. This added confluence to the signal. 💡 Divergence-Based Entry Zone With price recovering above the signal bar and RSI breaking upward, traders could use this divergence as a secondary confirmation entry — improving timing and confidence. 📈 Momentum Followed Through After the signal and confirmation, price reversed strongly upward with a clear multi-candle move, offering multiple reward opportunities depending on your exit style. ✅ How to Trade It (Step-by-Step) Wait for a signal label (green/red) from the script — this marks a statistically stretched price condition with volume support. Add the RSI indicator to your chart. Watch for divergence (price making a new low, but RSI not confirming) near the signal — this gives you a stronger reason to enter. Look for a reversal candle (like a bullish engulfing, pin bar, or inside bar) for clean entry timing. Use the previous low as a stop and target a 1:2 or better reward-risk ratio based on price structure. 🔁 Pro Tip: Top-Down Boost This exact signal is even more powerful if a similar setup appears on the 1-hour and 5-minute charts around the same area. ✅ When multiple timeframes agree, it’s a higher-probability zone to enter. 🧠 This approach blends statistics, momentum, and price action — giving you structure and flexibility as a trader.
Long
by ElfieTrader
EURUSD Volatility EURUSD: April saw notably elevated volatility. MUFG Research reports the euro surged from 1.0811 to 1.1325 in April, a sharp 2.9% monthly gain, the most significant since early-COVID volatility. NewbridgeFX describes April as “a month marked by heightened global market uncertainty”, with EUR/USD experiencing considerable swings amid trade tensions, inflation data, and central-bank decisions. DailyForex highlighted volatility spikes in early April, with sharp moves around tariff announcements and inflation reports Was April the Most Volatile Month of 2025? April ranks among the most volatile, if not the top, due to: Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, triggering global market turbulence. ECB rate cut and euro strength, adding fuel to price swings May also remained volatile, but analysis like MUFG and DailyForex suggests volatility slightly subsided compared to April. 📊 Conclusion April 2025 likely stands as the most volatile month for EUR/USD this year, primarily driven by trade-policy shocks and central bank actions. It appears to edge out volatility in May, making it the standout month. Market research conducted by Ilyas Khan with assistance from #ChatGPT by #OpenAI. #eurusd #forex #eur #usd #economics #science #math #mathematics #economy #usa #unitedstatesofamerica #europe #bloomberg #ctv #cnbc #marketnews #market #marketresearch
by ilyaskhan1994
#AN005 What Changes After USA-China, ECB and Oil Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, forex trader and creator of the SwipeUP Elite FX Method, which analyzes the market as a Hedge Found. Today I want to talk to you about the latest crucial economic news of the week that will influence the currency markets. Let's start with the important trade meeting between the United States and China that took place in London. The negotiations, mainly focused on exports and rare earth metals, showed positive signs with optimistic statements from both sides. This event immediately brought an improvement in global sentiment, strengthening trade-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD), while the US dollar recorded a slight decline. The World Bank, on the other hand, tagged its 2025 global growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3%. This downgrade reflects significant concerns for the United States, China and Europe, due to trade uncertainties and reduced investments. This scenario, however, could favor some emerging currencies, such as the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Mexican peso (MXN), which benefit from less restrictive monetary policies and a reduction in pressure on the US dollar. Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to further reduce rates, bringing them to 2%, with the possibility of further decreases of up to -0.25% by the autumn. This expansionary policy is dictated by the need to support a stagnant economy and contain inflation. Inevitably, this will put pressure on the euro (EUR), which is expected to weaken against major currencies, especially the dollar. In the United States, on the other hand, all eyes are on the May CPI due on June 11. Inflation is expected to be 2.5%, and the publication of data that is above or below expectations could generate strong volatility on the dollar. A higher CPI would strengthen the dollar, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while a lower reading could further weaken the greenback. Finally, oil has also rallied, with WTI up 6% and Brent up 4%. This increase has been driven by a more favorable geopolitical context and the reduction of trade tensions. The effect on currency markets is direct, favoring commodity-related currencies, such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Norwegian krone (NOK), while currencies such as the euro (EUR) and the Japanese yen (JPY), of oil-importing countries, could find themselves in difficulty. In summary, the current week is proving to be crucial for Forex: declining trade tensions are supporting trade-related currencies, the ECB's accommodative monetary policy is weakening the euro, while US economic data will drive sentiment on the dollar. To stay updated on future developments, continue to follow my analyses and articles here on TradingView.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD is moving within the 1.13640 - 1.14550 range👀Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) rose 0.22% against the U.S. dollar on June 9, supported by optimism over diplomatic progress between Washington and Beijing on rare-earth minerals and advanced tech. U.S. officials called the talks fruitful, easing global economic concerns. The ECB’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut lowered borrowing costs to their lowest since November 2022, but hints that easing may end soon kept the euro steady. With a quiet macro calendar on June 10, traders will watch ECB speeches for clues on future policy. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.13640 Resistance level is located at 1.14550
by MaxOnMarkets
EURUSD Asia Trade Executed June 10EURUSD Trade Executed June 10 Parent range Premium Previous session Premium Suspected Sell off Asia/London Asia Framework *Price took equal lows liquidity in NY AM session *Retraced in NY PM to a session premium *Consolidated to close NY in a premium Idea for June 10 *Asia opens to take minor buy side into a FVG- recognizing Asia hunts for minor liquidity before its expansion and with bias identified I am gaining confidence to be patient like today to wait for Price to align to my ideas *Price bodies tap the CE of the FVG-tippings its hand it will roll over *Because I was impatient yesterday I waited for 20:00 delivery to play out before reacting *20:45 small consolidation/minor retracement *21:05 swing high to CE of 20:35 candle and first presented FVG *21:06 entry *Targets speculated that Price was in a session premium with the anticipation to come down to the 50 level-1.14125 level and the FVG targets noted *21:50 Exit trade second target hit-I actually set the target and got stopped out! *Employed the Standard Deviation tool that aligned with the 1.14000 price I exited on-pretty cool! Greed kept me closing the trade and being very happy even though my sentiment was price could reach for equal lows which it did. For reference I use DXY to frame this trade speculating DXY would run to its buy stops and it did! Great delivery. Great analysis. So happy with this Asia trade.
by LeanLena