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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA). Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low). Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend. Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support. Fundamental Analysis: Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD: Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious. Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone. Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany. European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 18 February 2025 - EURUSD reversed from the resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.0400 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.0500 (which has been reversing the price from December), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November. The price will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji if the pair closes today near the current levels (strong sell signal for EURUSD). Given the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.0400.
Short
by FxProGlobal
EURUSD Outlook: Selling Opportunities AheadAs we delve into the current movements of the EURUSD, our analysis points towards a sell strategy. The entry price is set at 1.04828, with a take profit target at 1.04644333 and a stop loss at 1.05037333. Several factors support this bearish outlook. First, the strength of the U.S. dollar remains robust, shaped by expectations of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. These developments often lead to a stronger dollar relative to the Euro, which is crucial for our selling strategy. Additionally, the recent price action suggests a downward trend, where the EURUSD has struggled to regain higher levels. This is reinforced by our EASY Trading AI strategy, which efficiently analyzes historical price data and market trends. The probability of a retracement in the current market conditions favors a move toward our take profit level. In conclusion, executing a sell position at 1.04828 aligns well with the prevailing market direction. As always, employing proper risk management with our specified stop loss will safeguard against unexpected market fluctuations. Happy trading!
Short
by ForexRobotEasy
EUR: No help from joint defence spendingThe ongoing discussion among EU leaders for a joint fund for defence spending is unlikely to drive much support for European currencies. That’s because the trigger is US President Donald Trump’s threat to scale back military support for NATO borders in Europe, which is hardly a net-positive development for local currencies. It is equally far-fetched to hope any such EU coordination on common spending will be replicated on the fiscal side to counter US protectionism. The eurozone’s structural unpreparedness to face the economic consequences of Trump’s tariffs continues to form the basis of our bearish EUR view. Market pricing on the European Central Bank is around -75bp for year-end, but we think four more cuts this year (to 1.75%) will be warranted. EUR/USD has obliterated the negative risk premium related to US tariffs. Remember in mid-January that amounted to 3% of undervaluation, according to our short-term fair value model. It seems that the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations have offset the tariff threat in FX. However, the latter likely have more tangible implications for the ECB, the economy, and by extension the euro, and we therefore favour a lower EUR/USD. Our forecast for the end of this quarter is 1.02.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
EURUSD INTRADAY capped by resistance at 1.0500The EURUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 1.0500. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 1.0500 level could target the downside support at 1.0425 followed by the 1.0374 and 1.0347 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 1.0500 resistance and a daily close above that level could trigger further rallies higher and a retest of the 1.0530 resistance level followed by 1.0576. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Tuesday 18th Feb The Day AheadTuesday February 18 Data: US February Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, December total net TIC flows, UK December average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, January jobless claims change, Japan January trade balance, December core machine orders, Germany February Zew survey, Eurozone February Zew survey, Canada January CPI, existing home sales Central banks: Fed's Daly and Barr speak, ECB's Holzmann and Cipollone speak, BoE's Bailey speaks, RBA decision Earnings: Arista Networks, Medtronic, Cadence Design Systems, Occidental Petroleum, EQT, CoStar, Baidu, Capgemini This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Bullish Trade Setup | Demand Zone Entry | 1:2 RRThis analysis highlights a bullish trade setup on EUR/USD, anticipating a pullback into a demand zone before a strong upward continuation. The trade is structured to capitalize on a retracement, aligning with market structure shifts. Entry Price: 1.04435 (Expected pullback zone) Take Profit (TP): 1.05135 (Key resistance level, potential target) Stop Loss (SL): 1.04085 (Below the demand zone for protection) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 (Aiming for twice the risked amount) This setup leverages a retracement entry to maximize reward while minimizing risk, with a favorable risk-reward ratio and strong potential for bullish continuation.
Long
by Brainkiller
EURUSD analysis February 18Your trading strategy is based on a combination of strong support at 1.044 and signals from the EMA 34. This is a reasonable approach if the correction weakens and buying pressure increases. Some notes: Confirmation from price action: If the price reacts strongly to the 1.044 area (such as forming a reversal candlestick pattern or RSI divergence sign), the possibility of a bounce will be higher. Risk management: Stoploss 1.03900 is quite tight, ensuring low risk. However, if the sellers are strong and break through 1.044, you need to be ready to cut losses to avoid being caught in the downtrend. Flexible profit taking: TP1 (1.05100) is the nearest resistance zone, you can take partial profits here and move SL to breakeven to optimize profits if the price continues to 1.05700. You can also keep an eye on momentum indicators or economic news that may affect EUR/USD to make appropriate decisions. 🚀
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD 18 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - EU ZEW /US ManufacturingThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Some light economic news today along with the US Markets are back after long weekend. EUR : ZEW Economic Sentiment US : Empire State Manufacturing Index The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Currently price is targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCK) above the recent demand which could provide Bullish continuation. 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. 🔹After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS today. 🔹With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount. 3️⃣ 🔹As price on the 4H is currently targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCH), expectations today is to continue Bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback to Swing Discount and mitigate the 4H/15m Demand before continuing Bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EUR/USD getting close to target after tariffs rebound...The EUR/USD has rebounded nicely from two weeks prior when we gapped down pretty significantly after tariffs were announced. The original observation was bullish after identifying a bullish pattern (Descending Megaphone) alongside MACD divergence. We're stalling at the moment around 1.0500 and I don't expect any further movement throughout the day considering it's a U.S. market holiday however, I'm continuing to hold on to my long position and eying an exit at 1.0600 which is where the yearly pivot point is located. If we do get to see the 1.0600 price, I will be evaluating short positions somewhere in this zone. We'll see how the remainder of this week develops and go from there. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
Latest analysis of EUR/USDAfter a period of consolidation, EUR/USD is still hovering around the key resistance level of 1.0500, which is crucial for the trend of the euro. From a technical perspective, the current exchange rate trend remains above the 50-day moving average, which is around 1.04, providing support for bulls. The 50-day moving average is usually regarded as a guide for the medium-term trend. The price can remain above it, indicating that the current market is still bullish. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is currently approaching 60.00. If the RSI further breaks through this level and remains above this area, it may provide stronger upward momentum for EUR/USD. The breakthrough of RSI usually means a change in market sentiment. Breaking through 60.00 means that the bullish force may further increase, pushing the exchange rate upward. In terms of support, the low of 1.0285 on February 10 will be a key support area for EUR/USD. If the price falls below this support level, it may trigger a further correction. It should be noted that the current upward momentum is still relatively limited. If the price continues to consolidate around 1.0500, a sideways pattern may form in the short term. On the other hand, the resistance level of 1.0630 is also very important. This price range is the high point of December 6 last year. If the price breaks through this resistance level, it may mean a larger upside, especially in the upward trend after breaking through the 50-day moving average. On the whole, the current technical side of EUR/USD shows some upside potential, but it still needs more upside momentum to break through the psychological level of 1.0500. If the RSI continues to rise and remains above 60, the possibility of breaking through the key resistance level will increase. On the contrary, if the price falls back below 1.0285, it may re-test the lower support level.
by niwmniwm