USDEUX trade ideas
Nato and EU meetings could lift EUR/USD further Despite believing the euro is currently overvalued, Bank of America prefers it to the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
Bank of America thinks the EUR could be supported leading up to the NATO and EU summits (June 24-27) especially if defense spending is confirmed. German infrastructure spending might also be expected to support the euro.
The EUR/USD holds above the 20- and 50-period EMAs at 1.1380–1.1360 and is comfortably above the 200-period EMA. The recent pull-back from 1.14930 has eased momentum slightly.
A close above 1.1420 could target 1.1470, then 1.1520. A sustained break below 1.1280 could neutralise the bullish bias.
EURUSD: Weekly Overview June 9th 2025Hello Traders,
US CPI news is really important and could change the direction of the markets. But I think the Pair would keep its bullish trend for next week too.
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
EURUSD 4 HOUR OUTLOOK Price mitigated 4hour supply and pullback or retraces to internal sell to buy candle and the zone has been mitigated before.
Anticipating price to break structure to the upside and pullback or...
anticipating price to buy shorts when the market opens and sell to DISCOUNT ( lower time frame- we have a change of character - internal structure
Price will break structure to the upside and continues with HTF bias
Price will clear sell side liquidity to Discount level either one of the marked demands.
I will use h1/m30 time frame for confirmation
Economic data in the eurozone was mixed.The EUR/USD trended higher in a volatile fashion this week, gaining 0.41% on a weekly basis. It briefly reached a six-week high of 1.1495 on Thursday but retreated to 1.1395 on Friday due to a stronger US dollar. Nevertheless, the euro showed overall robust performance during the week. Analysts were not surprised by the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate cut, but they remained cautious about the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy. Although the ECB believes trade tensions have eased, analysts argue that the eurozone has not fully escaped risks. If future economic data continues to be weak, the euro may face downward pressure.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Strong Deviation News Trade MethodBack tested News-Based Trading Strategy | March–early June Results
This strategy trades only on strong deviation surprises in high-impact economic news releases, aiming to capture sharp market moves caused by unexpected data.
What is a Strong Deviation?
A strong deviation occurs when the actual economic data significantly differs from the forecasted number, beyond typical market expectations. This threshold is identified using advanced AI analysis of historical news data to measure how much surprise generally triggers meaningful price movement. Traders can implement these deviation levels as objective filters to enter trades only when the market is likely to react strongly.
Back test Summary (March to early June):
Total net result: +146.3 units (pips/points/%)
Number of trades: 10
Entry logic: Trade triggered when news surprise meets or exceeds strong deviation thresholds
Stop-loss: Set at 1.5 times the 15-minute chart ATR (Average True Range) to allow for normal volatility
Take-profit: Set at 2 times the stop-loss distance to secure favorable risk-reward
Visual signals: Each executed trade is marked on the chart with a blue pin
Highlights:
Focus on strong market-moving surprises only, filtering out noise
Risk management designed to balance protection and opportunity
Trades aligned strictly with news-driven momentum
Back tested with consistent positive returns over three months on key US economic data
How to Use:
Apply the strong deviation thresholds identified via AI-powered analysis as your trigger for news trades. Use the ATR-based stops and doubled take-profit for balanced risk control. This strategy suits traders aiming for clear, data-driven signals around economic events with disciplined trade management.
this text was powered by ai...
feel free to comment and discus the strategy. always open to news things and your thoughts.
and always remember . to learn is to share ...
EURUSD LIVE TRADEHello friends
Since the price has reached the specified important resistance, a correction in the price is expected. Therefore, you can enter the position with capital and risk management and move with it to the specified goals.
*Trade safely with us*
EURUSD"I’m expecting overall bullish momentum for EUR/USD in the coming weeks. We might see some short-term bearish moves, but they could just be setups for a larger bullish push. Fingers crossed!"
EURUSD MOVE IN 2ND WEEK🔍 Preliminary Technical Analysis:
1. Short-term Trend: The pair appears to be undergoing a corrective move downward after a clear upward trend from around 1.1200 to above 1.1500.
2. Nearby Resistance: Located in the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area.
3. Nearby Support: The 1.1350 level is acting as a potential support; breaking below it may push the price toward 1.1300 or even 1.1250.
4. Price Pattern: There's a possibility of a double top formation or a corrective ABC pattern.
🧠 Likely Scenario (Not Guaranteed):
If the price continues to move below 1.1450 and fails to form higher highs, we might see a further drop toward:
Target 1: 1.1350
Target 2: 1.1300
However, if the price breaks above the 1.1450 area and holds, an upward move toward 1.1500 and possibly 1.1550 could occur.
🛠️ Recommendations:
Watch how the price behaves around 1.1350: Is there a reversal candle pattern or a strong breakout?
Use supporting indicators like RSI or MACD to confirm momentum.
Avoid entering trades without confirmation from candlestick patterns or breakouts.
EUR/USD Analysis – Possible Scenarios🔹 Price is currently trading around 1.1421, consolidating between key supply and demand zones.
🔴 Supply Zone (Order Block 1H): 1.14360 – 1.14590
📌 Strong bearish reaction from this resistance area. First scenario: rejection from this OB and a move downward.
🔵 Demand Zone (Order Block 4H): 1.13050 – 1.13430
✅ If price fails to break the resistance, we could see a retracement to this OB. Bullish reaction here may offer long opportunities.
🟢 Fair Value Gap (FVG 1H): 1.11800 – 1.12220
📉 If OB 4H fails to hold, price could drop into this FVG area – a high-liquidity zone for potential reversal.
📊 Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Break and hold above OB 1H → price may extend toward next OB zone at 1.15150 – 1.15400
2️⃣ Rejection from OB 1H → pullback to OB 4H → possible long setup if confirmed
3️⃣ Break below OB 4H → deeper move into FVG 1H
‼️ Avoid premature entries – wait for valid confirmations.
🔍 Insight by ProfitaminFX
If this outlook aligns with your bias, or if you see it differently, feel free to share your perspective in the comments. Let’s grow together 📈
EURUSD LONGI see a build up of shorts for the dollar and reduction in longs . The dollar seems like it will continue short we might see it rally for a bit to take out more buyers I have a max SL of 150 pips which if reached invalidates my idea for the month. However I do have a tighter one for my entry .
I’m targeting imbalances and liquidity above .
eurusd shortEUR/USD loses its traction and trades below 1.1400 in the second half of the day on Friday. The pair struggles to build on the ECB-inspired gains and looks to end the week little changed as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from the better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls reading for May.
Eurusd Currently we are the support zone, so will have to wait to see the break down or it will go back up
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 6, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited notable volatility, mirroring patterns observed in the previous week. The currency surpassed a significant Mean Resistance level of 1.142 and encountered substantial resistive price action near the crucial Key Resistance level of 1.151. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to approach the critical Mean Support level at 1.137 and may decline to the subsequent Mean Support level at 1.129. Nevertheless, there exists the possibility of an upward movement from the current level or the Mean Support at 1.137, which could result in a target Mean Resistance of 1.145 and a retest of the Key Resistance at 1.151.
POST NEWS (EUR/USD)this week wasnt a good week for post news trading this strategy needs some refinement .. lets see
EUR/USD - 4H Analysis - High Probability Trade Setup🔍 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5 setup)
📌 Key Confluences:
Wave (4) is retracing into a key demand zone with strong volume support.
Price is approaching the 71% Fibonacci retracement, a proven institutional entry level.
Ichimoku cloud is holding as dynamic support.
Wave (5) projection targets 1.1550–1.1600 zone (Swing Range).
🎯 Trade Idea:
Buy EUR/USD between 1.1280 – 1.1320
Stop Loss: Below 1.1220 (invalidates wave count)
Take Profit: 1.1550 (1:3+ RR)
⚠️ Risk Note: Confirmation via bullish engulfing candle or volume spike would increase the entry's conviction.
This setup offers strong confluence for a wave 5 rally, making it a high-probability long trade toward the upper swing range.
Follow along for more setups
EUR/USD – Bearish OutlookThe market showed its hand.
After weeks of climbing, EUR/USD pierced into the 1.14500–1.15000 battlefield, a zone defended by historical resistance and heavy liquidity. Like a sword through fog, it grabbed the stops – and reversed with fury. A textbook liquidity sweep.
On the daily timeframe, the signs are clear: a rejection candle forged in volatility and imbalance. On the weekly, a long upper wick whispers the truth – bulls were ambushed, and now the pullback begins.
🔥 My Path Is Written:
Retest complete.
Liquidity taken.
Now, the descent begins.
Targets:
1.1220 – 1.1050: First support fortress.
If broken, deeper raids toward 1.0940 and below.
Fundamentals align:
The ECB weakens its stance, while the Fed waits in silence, watching the data. NFP is today – and should it favor the dollar, the fire will be lit.
⚔️ Strategy:
I stand with the bears.
I do not chase – I prepare. I strike with patience and precision.
Let the weak follow price.
Let the strong follow purpose.
📉 EUR/USD – Bearish until proven otherwise.
Euro-dollar looks vulnerable but lacks a catalystWith relatively low momentum and buying saturation clear recently, it’s questionable whether euro-dollar might achieve a new high soon. 6 June's NFP was only slightly strong than expected, though, so it's unlikely to trigger a continuing move down. Volume and volatility have declined strongly since April and the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement seems to be more established as an area of resistance.
If the price does retreat in the near future, it’s unlikely to be a large drop to $1.11 or lower immediately, more of a retracement. Behaviour after a possible break below the main dynamic support of the 50 SMA from Bands would be one of the most important factors determining the next move. Monetary policy, especially the Fed’s meeting on 18 June, and American politics and tariffs remain in focus.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
EURUSD tested the Resistance level 1.14550👀 Possible scenario:
The euro rose 0.23% against the dollar on June 5 after the ECB signaled an end to its easing cycle, despite cutting rates for the eighth time. The bank lowered its growth and inflation forecasts amid rising trade risks and slowing momentum but expects inflation to return to target in the longer term.
Meanwhile, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a gain of 130,000 in May, down from April’s 177,000, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Signs of a cooling labor market are weighing on yields ahead of the report.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.13640
Resistance level is located at 1.14550
BUY EUR/USD Intraday/SwingEUR/USD – Demand Zone Reversal Setup (15-Min)
Timeframe: 15-Minute (Short-Term Intraday)
Trade Type: Demand Zone Reversal / Trend Alignment
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.13
📍 Trade Setup Overview
Entry: 1.14255 (Current Market Price)
Stop Loss: 1.14099
Take Profit: 1.14547
Risk: ~14.3 pips (~0.13%)
Reward: ~30.5 pips (~0.27%)
This setup targets a rebound from a validated demand zone with clean structural confluence and early momentum signals.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
🧱 Structure & Trend Context:
Microtrend (M15): Recent corrective pullback following a strong bullish impulse.
Trendline: A descending short-term trendline is nearing a break, suggesting momentum shift in favor of bulls.
Demand Zone: Validated by the Order Block Detector, the 1.1409–1.1420 area has already proven to absorb sell-side pressure during past tests.
📈 Momentum Indicators:
RSI (14): Currently ~46 and curling up — potential bullish divergence building.
MACD (12,26): Histogram showing exhaustion of bearish momentum. Signal lines are converging — early signs of crossover.
Euro ShortEUR/USD short position. Break out not ready yet. Expecting a retracement back to the demand zone. Low Stop loss of 50 pips. Do your own research.
EURUSD -Long -1.1677EURUSD has shown the potential to move towards the levels of 1.1677.
The Pair can test the levels of 1.1175 or even 1.1050 to bounce back.
ECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month HighECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month High
Yesterday, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time since May 2024. According to ForexFactory, the main refinancing rate was lowered from 2.40% to 2.15% (having stood at 4.50% in May 2024).
According to Reuters:
→ ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that interest rates are now at a “good level”, despite the extremely high uncertainty caused by tariff threats from President Donald Trump.
→ Following the press conference, markets interpreted the message as a sign that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates again at its next meeting in July.
In response to the ECB's decision, the EUR/USD rate jumped to its highest level in a month and a half, but later retreated (as indicated by the arrow) back to previous levels.
Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart
Four days ago, while analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:
→ drew an ascending channel;
→ suggested that bullish momentum could push the EUR/USD rate up to the psychological level of 1.1500 during the current week.
In fact, at yesterday’s peak, the rate came very close to 1.1500. However, a candlestick with a long upper shadow had formed on the EUR/USD chart, by the end of the day. Additionally, this morning, the 1.1450 level has acted as a resistance zone.
This suggests bearish activity, which could pull the rate down towards the lower boundary of the local channel (outlined in black), and possibly even attempt a breakout below it.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
