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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

The dollar is still weak against the euroThe EURUSD has risen directly with the market opening without visiting the OB, which was a good area to buy, but that's okay, we now know where its next target will be, which is to sweep the liquidity that is above the Trend line and then break the Main High. An expected scenario may occur when this high is broken, which is SMT (divergence), and there will be a good selling entry with GBPUSD, but until now, we have not anticipated events until this break occurs.
Long
by Mr_Liquidity1
2
EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS📊 EUR/USD Technical Analysis – July 23, 2025 The pair is currently respecting an ascending trendline on the 1H timeframe, showing bullish momentum after breaking previous highs. Price is consolidating just below a key resistance zone, suggesting a potential breakout or rejection scenario in the coming sessions. 🔍 Key Levels: 🔴 Resistance 1: 1.17607 🔴 Resistance 2: 1.18415 🟢 Support 1: 1.16793 🟢 Support 2: 1.15983 ✅ Bullish Scenario: If price holds above the ascending trendline and breaks above the 1.17607 resistance zone with strong volume, we could see a continuation towards the next resistance at 1.18415. A bullish breakout with a retest offers a buy opportunity, targeting the higher resistance level with a stop below the trendline. Buy Entry Idea: Entry: After breakout and retest of 1.17607 TP: 1.18415 SL: Below 1.17250 ❌ Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above the trendline and breaks below 1.16793, it may signal a shift in momentum. In that case, a sell opportunity could emerge on the retest of broken support, targeting the next support level at 1.15983. Sell Entry Idea: Entry: Below 1.16793 after confirmation TP: 1.15983 SL: Above 1.17000 💡Conclusion: EUR/USD is currently at a key decision point. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout in either direction before entering. Monitor volume and price action around the resistance and trendline area for the best setup. 📌 Always manage your risk and stick to your trading plan. #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #TradingSetup #PriceAction #SupportResistance #FXSMART
Long
by FXSMARTT
Euro Steady at $1.17 as ECB Holds FireThe euro hovered near $1.17 as traders awaited Thursday’s European Central Bank decision. With rates expected to remain steady following eight consecutive cuts, policymakers tread cautiously amid strength in the euro and lingering U.S. tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, EU officials are preparing contingency plans in case trade negotiations with President Trump collapse before the August 1 deadline. Resistance for the pair is at 1.1830, while support is at 1.1660.
by ChartMage
EURUSD - Price ActionYesterday’s accumulation phase pushed the market to new highs 📈, with a top forming at 1.17605. After the price pullback during the Asian session, it appears that London used the opportunity to enter short positions, potentially forming a distribution range. As long as we remain above the vWAP from yesterday’s accumulation, I still see a possibility for a continued move to the upside 🚀 The next key level where I’ll be watching for long entries is the demand zone supported by vWAP around 1.16940 📊 👉 Follow me for more EUR/USD trade ideas, market updates. 💼 I share structured analysis every Monday and Wednesday to help you stay aligned with the market 🗓️📊
by Oak_Fund
EURUSD BUY TRADE PLAN WITH CAUTIONEURUSD TRADE PLAN** 🔥 📅 Date: July 23, 2025 --- ### 📋 Trade Plan Overview | Plan ID | Type | Direction | Confidence | R\:R | Status | | ----------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ---------- | ----- | ---------- | | EURUSD-20250723-A | Swing | **Buy** (Primary) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) | 3.5:1 | 🕒 Waiting | | EURUSD-20250723-B | Tactical | Sell (Alt. Setup) | ⭐⭐⭐ (65%) | 2.5:1 | 🕒 Waiting | 🧭 **Guidance:** Favor the **buy plan** due to HTF trend and liquidity sweep setup. Sell setup is tactical against trend. --- ## 📈 Market Bias & Trade Type * **Bias:** Bullish overall (HTF) * **Trade Type A:** Continuation (Buy) - PRIMARY / PREFERRED * **Trade Type B:** Countertrend (Sell) - ALTERNATIVE --- ## 🔰 Confidence Level Breakdown * ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 80% (Buy Plan A) * H4 OB + Volume Imbalance = 35% * Fib Confluence = 25% * Sentiment Score +6/10 = 10% * DXY Divergence = 10% * ⭐⭐⭐ 65% (Sell Plan B) * Short-term exhaustion pattern * Inducement to the downside --- ## 📍 Entry Zones & Status ### 🟩 **Primary Buy Zone** * **Zone:** 1.1680 – 1.1705 (H4 OB + Fib 61.8%) * **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting* ### 🟧 **Secondary Buy Zone** * **Zone:** 1.1640 – 1.1660 (Deeper imbalance) * **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting* --- ### 🟥 **Sell Zone (Scenario B)** * **Zone:** 1.1760 – 1.1790 (Liquidity sweep, bearish engulfing risk) * **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting* --- ## ❗ Stop Loss Levels * **Buy SL:** 1.1620 (Below OB + 1.5x ATR) * **Sell SL:** 1.1815 (Above H4 supply & wick inducement) --- ## 🎯 Take Profit Targets * 🥇 **TP1:** 1.1745 (OB imbalance reclaim) – \~65 pips * 🥈 **TP2:** 1.1785 (Swing high) – \~100 pips * 🥉 **TP3:** 1.1840 (Full extension / trail) – *Swing only* --- ## 📏 Risk\:Reward * Buy Plan A: **3.5:1** to TP2, **5.2:1** to TP3 * Sell Plan B: **2.5:1** to TP2 --- ## 🧠 Management Strategy * Risk: 1.0% of account ($\ , \ lots) * SL to breakeven at TP1 * Take: 30% at TP1, 50% at TP2, trail final 20% * Exit if: H4 BOS or USD Index flips strongly bullish --- ## ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist * Bullish engulfing or inside bar (H1-H4) * Volume confirmation on bounce (preferably NY or London open) * Optional: M30 RSI divergence * **Avoid:** FOMC / ECB pressers --- ## ⏳ Validity * **Buy Plan (H4):** Valid 48–72 hours → until July 26 * **Sell Plan (H1):** Valid 12–16 hours → intraday only --- ## ❌ Invalidation Conditions * Close below 1.1620 (Buy) * Close above 1.1815 (Sell) * Major USD macro shift --- ## 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot * COT: USD weak bias * DXY: Retracing lower from 106.00 * Retail: 68% short EURUSD * Cross-Pair: EURGBP also trending up * Macro: EUR resilience post-ECB minutes * Sentiment Score: **+6/10** --- ## 📋 Final Trade Summary 🟩 **Buy plan is preferred**, aligned with HTF trend, clean OB-Fib structure, and good RR. 🟥 **Sell plan** is tactical, potential liquidity grab before bullish continuation. Both setups allow flexibility with proper confirmation and risk control. --- Major EUR-related news is scheduled this week, and it's critical to factor into both trade timing and plan execution. Here's your ⚠️ Fundamental Update for EURUSD: 🌐 EUR Fundamental Events – This Week Date Event Time (UTC) Impact Level Forecast / Notes July 24 (Wed) 🇪🇺 Eurozone PMIs (Manu. & Services) 08:00 UTC 🔴 High Strong driver of EUR intraday volatility July 25 (Thu) 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision 12:15 UTC 🔴🔴🔴 Very High Key market mover – Dovish = bearish EUR ECB Press Conference 12:45 UTC 🔴🔴🔴 Critical High volatility expected July 26 (Fri) 🇩🇪 IFO Business Climate 08:00 UTC 🟡 Medium Impactful for EUR strength sentiment 🔍 Implications for Your EURUSD Trade Plan ✅ Buy Plan Wait until post-ECB OR only take the setup with strong candle confirmation, ideally after NY session pullback. Hold reduced exposure before July 25 ECB to avoid whipsaw. ❌ Sell Plan Be extremely cautious; if ECB is neutral/hawkish, any tactical short may get invalidated rapidly. If you take the short, exit before Thursday's ECB, unless trailing with SL to breakeven. 📊 Summary: Yes, major EUR events this week — especially Thursday's ECB — could invalidate technical setups or accelerate them violently. Patience + confirmation = priority. Avoid entry during red events. Let volatility settle. Let me know if you'd like to pause your trade plan until post-news or want a modified low-volatility alternative! 🧠 Always manage risk tightly around macro events. This is not investment advice. 🧠 Fundamental Snapshot 🔵 EUR Macro Landscape: Factor Signal Explanation Inflation 🔼 Still elevated Keeps ECB hawkish bias alive ECB Policy ⚠️ Potentially hawkish hold Market expects no cut, but hawkish tone could push EUR higher Economic Activity ⚪ Mixed PMIs Slight slowdown, but not recessionary COT/Positioning 🟢 Light EUR longs Room for upside without overcrowding Retail Sentiment 🔴 Bearish crowd Contrarian signal supports buys USD Pressure 🟠 Mixed Fed possibly done hiking, but US economy resilient ⚠️ ECB SCENARIOS (July 25): Scenario Likelihood Market Reaction 🟢 Hawkish Hold (no cut, firm inflation tone) 60% 🔼 EURUSD likely rallies 🟡 Neutral/Dovish Hold 30% 🔄 EUR consolidates or fades spike 🔴 Surprise Cut / Dovish Pivot 10% 🔽 EUR drops hard – buy invalidated Most institutional forecasts lean toward a hawkish or neutral hold, giving EURUSD room to rise after the event. 🎯 Conclusion: ✅ Fundamentals support a buy, especially post-ECB. ❗ Best entry is after July 25, when market digests Lagarde's tone. 🔄 If entering early, stay small and manage risk very tightly — ECB surprises = volatility.
Long
by jibkhan111
EURUSD M30 I Bearish Drop Based on the M30 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our sell entry at 1.1736, which is an overlap resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.1712 a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1768, which is above a swing high resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Short-Term Pullback Within a Bullish Higher Timeframe StructureHey Traders, hope you're all doing well! 👋 Price has recently broken above the previous weak high, showing strong bullish momentum. At the moment, we're seeing a short-term bearish pullback — a common market behavior aimed at filling buy orders near the demand zone. Despite this minor retracement, the Higher Timeframe (HTF) remains firmly bullish. As long as that structure holds, this pullback could present a solid opportunity to rejoin the trend. Wait for bullish confirmation before executing any entries to stay aligned with the prevailing market direction.
Short
by fxtrends28
EURUSD| Back Aligned Bullish - Still in Analysis ModePair: EURUSD Bias: Bullish Following price closely and adapting to the market’s rhythm. Recent structure showed that price is still respecting last week’s key zones — so I’ve realigned with the bullish bias accordingly. No entries yet — still in analysis mode, which honestly is the best part 😉 Watching for clean LTF confirmations before engaging. No guessing. No forcing. Price always tells the truth — you just gotta stay patient enough to listen. #EURUSD #SMC #bullishbias #marketstructure #inducementking #smartmoneyflow Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EUR/USD – Falling Wedge at Major Fibonacci Zone | Bullish ReversAfter a strong mid-June rally, EUR/USD has pulled back into a key fib cluster, showing early signs of reversal from a classic falling wedge pattern — often a precursor to bullish breakouts. Technical Breakdown: 📉 Descending Trendline 🔍 Fibonacci Confluence: Price is reacting from the 0.5-0.618 – 0.705 zone (1.16421-1.15969), aligning perfectly with historical demand and the golden zone of the fib retracement. Just below sits the 0.79 fib (1.15339), which also marks our invalidity level for this idea — a deep but powerful retracement if tested. 💡 RSI: While still below 50, it has created a hidden bullish divergence between July 12–17, hinting that momentum is flipping back to bulls. 🧠 Educational Insight: This setup combines Trendlines, Fibonacci retracement theory, and EMA dynamics to build a multi-layered trade thesis — the type of confluence we look for at Wright Way Investments. Price doesn’t just reverse because it hits a fib level. But when structure, EMAs, and RSI align — the odds increase significantly. 📈 Trade Setup (Idea-Based, Not Financial Advice): Long Entry Zone: Current area (1.159–1.161), with confirmation above 1.1626 Invalidation: Clean break & close below 1.15339 Target Zones: 🎯 TP1 – 1.1642 (50 fib & retest zone) 🎯 TP2 – 1.1686 (38.2 fib) 🎯 TP3 – 1.1755 (Weekly Resistance) 📌 Summary: EUR/USD is forming a textbook reversal setup, supported by fib precision and EMA alignment. Patience is key — but the ingredients are here for a strong bullish continuation.
Long
by WrightWayInvestments
The Day AheadKey Data Releases: US: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity – A pulse-check on services sector strength. Positive surprise could boost USD and Treasury yields. Richmond Fed manufacturing & business conditions – Insight into regional factory health; any contraction signals broader economic weakness. UK: June Public Finances – Higher borrowing may raise concerns about fiscal headroom, putting pressure on gilts and GBP. France: June Retail Sales – A soft read may point to waning consumer demand, affecting Eurozone growth expectations. Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Market-sensitive. Traders will watch closely for clues on rate cut timing—September odds remain high. ECB Lending Survey: Tightening credit standards may reinforce the case for ECB to hold or ease. Could weigh on EUR if dovish tones dominate. BoE Governor Bailey Speaks: Could guide GBP volatility. Hawkish lean might delay rate cut pricing. RBA July Minutes: Will reveal internal debate over inflation and growth. May impact AUD if dovish or hint at hikes. Earnings to Watch: Tech & Industrials: SAP, Texas Instruments, RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman – Key for assessing global capex and defense spending cycles. Texas Instruments: A bellwether for chip demand—guidance will drive semiconductor sentiment. Lockheed/Northrop: Defense outlook in focus amid geopolitical tensions. Consumer & Financials: Coca-Cola, Capital One, Equifax, General Motors, Sherwin-Williams – Consumer strength, credit conditions, and input cost pressures in focus. Capital One, Equifax: Loan growth and credit quality trends will signal consumer resilience or stress. GM: Comments on EV outlook and pricing will be market-moving. Healthcare & Industrials: Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Sartorius: Indicators of medtech demand and R&D cycles. Trading Implications: Expect rate-sensitive assets (USD, US yields, GBP) to move on central bank commentary. Risk sentiment may shift post-earnings depending on guidance, especially from tech and defense names. Watch EUR reaction to ECB lending data; dovish tilt may push EUR/USD lower. AUD volatility possible if RBA minutes are unexpectedly hawkish or dovish. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation