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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Shorting Optimism: EUR/USD Rally vs RealityAfter the spike to 1.1640 driven by temporary ceasefire news and USD weakness, I’ve taken a short position on EUR/USD. The market priced in too much optimism too fast, and I see limited upside beyond this zone in the current macro landscape. I’m positioned for a controlled retracement back toward the 1.1460–1.1520 region. The play? Fade the overextension, follow structure, and manage from strength. Technicals: • The pair ran into a strong supply zone near 1.1640, which aligns with a previous liquidity sweep. • Momentum has slowed visibly on lower timeframes, with candles rejecting highs and wicks printing upper tails. • Daily and 4H SMAs are overstretched. The 20 SMA on H4 is accelerating upward, but RSI is near overbought and flattening. • My short entry was taken with a stop above 1.1745 and first target at 1.1540, second at 1.1500. • A potential retest of the 1.1660 zone could offer additional entries if invalidation remains intact. Fundamentals: • ECB vs Fed Divergence: The Fed holds firm on rates amid sticky inflation, while the ECB is under pressure to ease further due to weak growth. • EU Struggles: PMI data remains in contraction territory; HICP cooling to 1.7% YoY suggests little reason for tightening. • Political Instability: Germany and France both facing internal political crises — risk premia rising. • Ceasefire Priced In: EUR rally on Middle East headlines lacks depth — conflict paused, not resolved. • USD Resilience: Weak recent data aside, the USD remains a safe haven. Fed’s Powell reiterated that cuts aren’t imminent. ⚠️ Bias: Bearish as long as price trades below 1.1640. Watching how the market reacts to Fed testimony and ECB rhetoric this week. 🧠 Reminder: Don’t get emotional after vertical rallies. When everyone gets excited, I look for exhaustion. That’s where trades begin. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
EURUSD Eyes Higher HighsHi there, The EUR/USD is showing a bullish setup on the 30-minute chart, with two key price targets in focus and an upside bias toward 1.16867. I’ve seen a completed ABC corrective pattern, followed by a significant low at point D. This suggests that the recent correction may be over. If momentum continues, the pair could rally from current levels, potentially breaking above the previous swing high at point C to form a new higher high. Immediate resistance levels to watch are 1.16016 and 1.16311, with the main bullish target at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension near 1.16867. If price holds above the recent low and maintains upward momentum, we can anticipate that these targets remain in play. Happy Trading, K. Not trading advice.
Long
by Khiwe
Euro may start to decline to support line of upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Earlier, the price was trading inside a downward wedge, gradually making lower highs and lower lows. After reaching the bottom of the wedge near the buyer zone (1.1210 - 1.1180), we saw a strong bullish impulse that broke through both the resistance line of the wedge and the support area near 1.1450 - 1.1485. This breakout signaled the beginning of a new phase - a transition into an Upward Channel. Since then, the price has been forming higher highs and higher lows, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of this new structure. Along the way, it has rebounded from the support line multiple times and recently made a strong move up toward the resistance line of the channel. Currently, the price is approaching that resistance line, which may act as a potential reversal area. Given the previous price behavior and the clearly defined channel, I expect the price to reach the top boundary and then start to decline toward the lower support line. That’s why I’ve set my TP 1 at 1.1555 points, which aligns perfectly with the support line of the upward channel. Based on the recent breakout, the structure of the trend, and the reaction from key zones, I remain short-biased for the upcoming sessions. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by LegionQ8
3
EURO - Price can correct and then continue move up in channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently, price entered to triangle, where it at once made an upward impulse from support line to resistance line. Price broke $1.1070 with $1.1430 levels, after which turned around and started to decline, breaking $1.1430 level again. Next, price exited from triangle and started to grow inside rising channel, where it rose near support line long time. Later it reached $1.1430 level one more time and soon broke it again, after which made retest and continued to grow. But when it reached resistance line of channel, it made correction movement to support area and then bounced up. Now, I think that Euro can fall to support line and then continue to move up inside rising channel to $1.1800 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by WalterMoon
10
DeGRAM | EURUSD will continue to grow rapidly📊 Technical Analysis ● Euro keeps hugging the upper rail of the 3-month rising channel after re-testing the broken April triangle top as support, confirming fresh trend acceleration. ● Momentum is unbroken – every 4 h pullback since 17 Jun has held above the inner trend-line (now 1.1717); measured channel height points to the next fib / horizontal cluster at 1.1869. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Softer US durable-goods orders and slowing housing data cooled 2-yr yields, while ECB speakers signalled no rush to ease again; the short-rate gap narrowed for a third session, underpinning EUR strength. ✨ Summary Buy dips ≥1.1717; upside targets 1.1800 then 1.1869. Bull view void on a 4 h close below 1.1600. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support
Long
by DeGRAM
2
EUR/USD Bullish Continuation Analysis EUR/USD Bullish Continuation Analysis 🚀💶 📊 Chart Summary: The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a strong bullish structure with consistent higher highs and higher lows. Recent price action shows a breakout above the 1.16386 resistance level, now acting as support 🛡️. The market is currently retracing and might retest this new support zone before continuing its upward move toward the target. 🔍 Key Observations: 🔸 Bullish Structure: Multiple bullish impulses have formed a clean staircase pattern (🔼⬆️), indicating sustained buying momentum. 🔸 Support Zone 🟦 (1.13200 - 1.14000): This zone has been tested multiple times, confirming its strength and the base of this bullish rally. 🔸 Breakout & Retest 🟠: Price broke above the 1.16386 resistance level, pulled back slightly (highlighted by the orange circle), and now looks ready for a potential continuation to the upside. 🔸 Target 🎯: 1.18010 A clear target has been set based on measured move or resistance projection. If the price respects the current structure, we may see a continuation toward this level. ✅ Trade Outlook: Bias: Bullish 📈 Entry Zone: Around 1.16386 (upon bullish confirmation) Target 🎯: 1.18010 Invalidation ❌: Break below 1.1600 with bearish momentum 🧠 Technical Tip: Always wait for confirmation on the retest before entering. Wick rejections or bullish engulfing candles at the support zone can provide additional entry confidence. 🔍✅
Long
by MrStellanSight
4
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.17300.Colleagues, I believe that the upward five-wave impulse is not over yet. At the moment, I see the formation of wave “3” of the lower order and wave “3” of the middle order, which means that the upward movement will continue at least to the resistance area of 1.17300. This area is located between two levels (1.16529-1.18252) of Fibonacci extension. A correction is possible — be careful. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
21
EURUSD – Signs of Weakness, Risk of Trendline BreakEURUSD is showing signs of weakness after a strong rejection at the 1.16300 resistance zone — a level that previously acted as a distribution area. Despite a brief rebound driven by mixed PMI data, the Euro failed to maintain its momentum and is now turning lower. If price breaks below the support zone around 1.15400 — which aligns with both the trendline and an old FVG — a deeper decline toward the 1.15000 level could be triggered. Continued failure to surpass the 1.16300 resistance would further strengthen the corrective pressure. On the fundamental side, expectations for the ECB to hold rates steady and weaker-than-expected Eurozone data are dampening the Euro’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains firm on safe-haven demand, with upcoming US GDP and Core PCE data likely to drive short-term direction.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 26, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair continues to rise to 1.16800 during Thursday's Asian session. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) as investors worry about the future independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Final data on US GDP growth for the first quarter will be in focus later on Thursday. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he is considering three or four potential candidates to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump may consider former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Other candidates include former World Bank President David Malpass and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. This raises questions about a potential weakening of the Fed's independence and a possible decline in its authority, which undermines the dollar and creates favorable conditions for the major currency pair. Across the Atlantic, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are concerned about the economic outlook due to Trump's tariff policy and geopolitical risks. Earlier this week, ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau said that despite current conditions, further rate cuts are still possible. Statements by ECB policymakers may put pressure on the single currency in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16750, SL 1.16300, TP 1.17500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
OTEUM EXPERT CALL: EUR/USD – June Finale Setup We’re eyeing the last intramonth swing of June, expected to bleed into early July. Our playbook: let the market cough up one final risk-off spike on the Iran headlines 🌪️📰, then scoop up positions in the value zone (red box) for the next bullish leg 🚀. Patience first, trigger later 🕰️🎯—wait for price to hit the sweet spot, load up, and ride the firework into summer. Stay nimble; geo-shock headlines can move the board fast ⚠️.
Long
by Karel_OTEUM
Bullish continuation for the Fiber?The price is falling towards the pivot point, which is a pullback support, and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is also a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.1630 1st Support: 1.1591 1st Resistance: 1.1692 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets