USDEUX trade ideas
Strong Sell on EURUSD starting from today. Strong Sell on EURUSD as $$$ is getting its strength back. Enjoy the swing trade on EURUSD
Trade idea for EUR/USD- Break and Retest!Hello all, this is a video looking at a potential trade idea for EUR/USD going into 12.02.25 using the break and retest strategy.
However, this was nullified in one candle at the time of recording.
It goes to show how that if there's one certain thing in this game is that there'll be uncertainty.
The euro is in a difficult position, negative or positive, the itheThe euro is in a difficult position, negative or positive, the i
EUR/USD 4HIn the 4-hour timeframe, the completed second and third waves are clearly visible, and in the near future, we could see a potential significant drop.
Stronger Dollar and Trump’s Tariffs Pressure Euro to $1.03The euro fell to $1.03 as a stronger US dollar and Trump’s global steel and aluminum tariffs pressured the currency. Expectations of a widening US-Europe interest rate gap grew, with strong US jobs data supporting the Fed’s steady policy, while the ECB recently cut rates and hinted at more easing in March. Concerns over deflation from US tariffs increased bets on further ECB cuts, with markets eyeing a deposit rate of 1.87% by December. German Chancellor Scholz warned the EU could retaliate swiftly, while trade officials signaled openness to lowering the bloc’s 10% vehicle import tax to avoid a trade war.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0400, with further resistance levels at 1.0460 and 1.0515 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0275, followed by additional support levels at 1.0220 and 1.0180.
EU Pullbacks NeededA 300-pip pullback creates a good risk-to-reward setup for sell trades.
Note to self: To keep the bearish trend intact, the price must stay below the Orange Line.
EUR: Staying offered in EuropeEUR/USD remains offered as the weekend announcement over steel tariffs was the first to hit the EU. Europe is now bracing for other sectors, such as autos, to be tariffed. There is little justification for the EU bloc as a whole to be hit with reciprocal tariffs since the EU tariff regime is relatively low. But, presumably, European politicians are more fearful about broader tariffs in April once the US Commerce Department delivers its report on why the US runs large trade deficits.
Whatever today's news on tariffs, wide rate spreads justify EUR/USD continuing to trade near 1.03 and undermine the need for any corrective bounce. As our rate strategy colleagues discuss here, the decoupling of the eurozone from US rate spreads can see differentials stay wide, if not move wider over the coming months. Combined with rising natural gas prices, expect EUR/USD to stay offered. A decline towards the 1.0250/60 range, or potentially lower, seems probable ahead of the new tariffs.
Even though EUR/USD is range-bound, we are starting to see some decent moves lower in EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK. In EUR/SEK, two-year swap differentials have moved in favour of the krona as the ECB is priced for another 88bp of easing this year, while the Riksbank is barely expected to cut once. But the story seems larger than rate differentials, and like its CEE peers (see below), the krona is shaking off the rise in gas prices. This resilience may be driven by growing optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine. Expectations are that the US will reveal more of its plans at a Munich security conference this weekend – although any breakthrough with Russia would be a major surprise and is not priced in FX markets.
EUR/USD Bullish Trade Setup | CHoCH Confirmation | 1:2 RRThis analysis highlights a bullish trade setup on EUR/USD, following a Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling a potential trend reversal to the upside. The price structure suggests a pullback to a demand zone before continuing the upward momentum.
Entry Price: 1.03467 (Expected pullback zone)
Take Profit (TP): 1.04107 (Strong high, potential resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.03147 (Below the demand zone for protection)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 (Aiming for twice the risked amount)
This trade is structured to capitalize on a retracement before a bullish continuation, aligning with market structure shifts. The CHoCH breakout confirms the transition to a bullish bias, making this an optimal trade with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 11, 2025 EURUSDOn Monday, the EUR/USD exchange rate experienced a decline of approximately a third of a percentage point, reaching 1.03000 as market sentiment moderated. Investors are anticipating clearer signals from central bank policymakers, however, the recent series of executive orders on tariffs issued by US President Donald Trump has introduced an element of uncertainty.
European data is generally limited this week, with a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde failing to elicit significant movement. This routine speech is a staple in ECB policymakers' talking points.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his latest testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee, where he is expected to address concerns regarding the Fed's response to the fluctuating tariff threats posed by President Trump.
Germany's final Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the year ending January is scheduled for release on Thursday, and EU gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter is due on Friday. Neither of these indicators are expected to undergo significant change.Key data this week will be US consumer price index (CPI) inflation, released on Wednesday, and the US producer price index (PPI), released on Thursday.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.03100, SL 1.02850, TP 1.03600
EURUSD 11 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Powell & Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key.
Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War narrative?
Today Powell will be the market mover as investors are waiting for a clue for direction.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price reached the Strong Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS.
🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Bearish INT structure Continuation.
🔹Since yesterday market open, price is ranging within the Bearish INT structure.
🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down.
🔹After reaching the Bearish INT structure extreme price is moving down in a corrective PA and currently in the extreme discount of the INT Structure.
🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). No Long setups/confirmations are clear for me.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
EurUsd trade setup (10 feb)📈 Long Setup at Daily Demand Retest Zone
I'm considering a long position as 1.03072 aligns with my daily demand retest zone. This trade follows a fixed stop loss and target, maintaining a risk-to-reward (RR) ratio of 3.5.
🔹 Entry: 1.03148
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.03032
🔹 Target 1: 1.03328 (RR = 1.5)
🔹 Target 2: 1.03557 (RR = 3.5)
This setup is based on price reacting to a key demand zone, expecting a potential upside move. Let’s see how it plays out!
Eurusd fallingI had a D1 eurusd analysis last week that was bullish. Price is on wave 3 of the large down trend and wave 3 on our correction phase currently. I’m seeing down before back up to major resistance. Let’s see how this correction plays out.
GpPa Model / EUR/USD Balanced Limit Order Short EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model
*The Analysis is the same as the conservative and dynamic entry*
The main entry is conservative, so, the analysis remains beside this part:
If we're not sure if the conservative entry can be mitigated, we can use the balance one. It uses the same VWAP level at the following fractal, just one maximum below.
1. Liquidity
a. Liquidity Related to Structure
The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure.
b. Liquidity Related to Directionality
The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows.
c. Decision Regarding Liquidity
Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend.
2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure)
a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation
(-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10%
These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market.
3. Entries
a. Conservative Entry
The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by:
- Long-term volume
- A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range
- A long-term order block (M1)
i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry
- Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00%
- Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82%
- Entry Probability: -50.00%
- Stop Loss Probability: -100.00%
- Take Profit Probability: -50.00%
The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP.
The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level.
The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached.
4. Other Comments
- The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly.
- A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels.
Do you like my analysis?
Follow me on social media: thewayofrichie
Let's trade,
Richie
GpPa Model / EUR/USD Conservative Limit Order Short EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model
1. Liquidity
a. Liquidity Related to Structure
The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure.
b. Liquidity Related to Directionality
The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows.
c. Decision Regarding Liquidity
Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend.
2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure)
a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation
(-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10%
These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market.
3. Entries
a. Conservative Entry
The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by:
- Long-term volume
- A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range
- A long-term order block (M1)
i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry
- Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00%
- Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82%
- Entry Probability: -50.00%
- Stop Loss Probability: -100.00%
- Take Profit Probability: -50.00%
The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP.
The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level.
The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached.
4. Other Comments
- The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly.
- A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels.
Do you like my analysis?
Follow me on social media: @thewayofrichie
Let's trade,
Richie
Cooler heads prevail...at least for now | FX ResearchInvestor risk appetite is picking up as the new week gets going. There were some initial jitters in Asia, but cooler heads have prevailed for now. Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remains a key focus for the market.
The latest announcement from Trump includes a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. from all countries. He has also stated that Canada and Mexico have not taken enough action to avoid the previously threatened tariffs.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet today. However, the week will bring key events, including U.S. CPI, retail sales, and Federal Reserve Chair testimony. Today’s notable events include the Bank of Canada Market Participant Survey, U.S. consumer inflation expectations, and an ECB appearance by Christine Lagarde.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
ICT trade on EU EUR USD entry
1, M30 candlestick close 3 pin doji
2, 61.8 fib
3, FVG at 8.30am NY should wait for 9am
4, Asian highs taken out and now it will go for
Asian lows.
5, 18 pip SL going for 28 to 30 pips risk ratio 1.66
EURUSD ShortWaiting for London open to see the price action, but on 15M I am looking for sweep of Buyside liquidity and grab small liquidity by the target to Sellside.
EURUSD: Market of Buyers
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURUSD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
EURUSDEURUSD is in bearish trend.
Potentially printing lH and LL.
No sign of reversal here.
Aligator also indicates that trend will go down .
we sell at CMP.
EURUSD ShortMy biased still has not changed, i am currently still going for short with, 5 pip sl with 50 pip target
EUR/USD
Sell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
Stop lost before pattern
R/R 1/3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signal for scalping
