Bullish scalp Based on 5m tf OB and 15m OB.
Price should continue bullish for a bit
We just had a high broken then a low broken.
Price tanked on 5min tf so let’s see
USDEUX trade ideas
USD: Tariff-friedWe see three key takeaways from a frenzied week.
First, the recent back and forth headlines have not altered our view that tariffs are coming and this will materially impact exchange rates.
Second, it is clear that FX is responding strongly to tariff risks in both directions.
Third, the solid payrolls report demonstrates that economic performance is still putting a floor under the Dollar. While we remain closely focused on risks to our forecasts stemming from tariff under-delivery and more balanced global economic performance, at least for now the US continues to set a high bar, and much of the Dollar’s strength in recent months can be attributed
to shifting macro outcomes rather than tariff expectations.
Weak downward movements and price tendency to move upwardsIf the red line breaks upwards, we should expect an upward leg in the Euro.
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD
Feb6
Price attempts to make it up to the 50 level late Wed comes into Asia in a deep discount consolidating. Weak and heavy at 1 macro takes session highs. Note the 1;56 candle as it touches the MOG and first presented fvg. Stalls for heat for 36 mins. have to trust.
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD
Feb 4
First presented FVG at 2 macro in the MOG in a discount knowing intra day. Equal highs in two places to take profits.
the equal lows were taken, you cant more clear than this. Such clean price action and the model builds its self.
EUR/USD long: Let them eat cakeHello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get wha
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF???
In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline.
Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize.
The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK.
And then, the European Union.
The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU.
The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia.
But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80.
Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat.
And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying...
The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again.
Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO.
On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy.
Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else.
The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras.
But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect me negatively for the next four years.
Best of luck.
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD London Macro
Feb 5
Macro 2
In Asia doesn't quite clear the equal lows and from previous range in a discount. By 1:30 turns around and reverse to the Asian session 50 level.
Price consolidates for 10 mins reacts to the high side. Buy at the first presented FVG or on a HTF order block?
EURUSD London MacroEURUSD
Feb 7
Picture perfect.
2 macro price is in a discount and taken equal lows. Price comes to the previous days MOG and the first presented FVG and enter on the2:05 candle.
Price comes down and yet only 18 mins of heat with 3.7 pip draw down. Its literally showing its hand with the big gap step up slowly heading for the 50 level and buy side.
I had the equal highs marked out and its exactly where price went.
16 pips for 1 hour and 17 min move. You got this.
Then prices breaks structure and comes down another 23 pips.
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe:
• Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations.
• Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains.
🔹 30M Timeframe:
• Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure.
• This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down.
• Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range.
🔹 5M Timeframe:
• Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry.
• Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward.
🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure.
🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones.
Bless Trading!
The EUR/USD Analysis update. Today, I analyzed the EUR/USD pair and observed that the market trend is moving downward. Furthermore, I identified higher low and lower low positions, which are consistently appearing in the downtrend.
Target.
1.02300
1.01300
It's my take. What you think about "EUR/USD" write in the comment below. Thanks.
EURUSD WILL BE GOING MORE DOWN BE READY.Based on some ML in the works EUR/USD is moving directly to target 1.02091.
Long1.The downtrend shows signs of breaking, or small correction is coming.
2.The uptrend is starding as the LH peak is broken and and the HL bottom is forming.
3.It seems to be bouncing off the fibo 0.618 level
EUR USD DAILY SET UPEUR USD
gap open on the open last night, My bias is sells. But will not be using in due to that Gap open and expect it may close the gap.
may look for sells around the 1.03400 area
EUR/USD shortEUR/USD> preview: I would expect shorts from this level where very strong resistance will be found. See all on screen.
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
I’m glad to have you all here. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, with some policymakers advocating for a bigger cut.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 143,000, falling short of the market expectation of 170,000. The January unemployment rate came in at 4.0%, lower than the market estimate of 4.1%. The market still views the labor market as strong.
- Former U.S. President Trump stated that reciprocal tariff discussions would take place on Monday or Tuesday following the U.S.-Japan summit. Speaking to reporters aboard his private jet en route to New Orleans for the Super Bowl on the 9th, he announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ Feb 10: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations
+ Feb 11: Fed Chair Powell's speech
+ Feb 12: U.S. January CPI, Fed Chair Powell's speech
+ Feb 13: U.K. Q4 GDP, Germany January CPI, U.S. January PPI
+ Feb 14: U.S. January retail sales
EUR/USD Chart Analysis
The pair has been facing resistance around the 1.04500 level, leading to a continued downtrend. Repeated failures to break above resistance suggest further declines ahead. In the medium to long term, a drop toward the 1.00500 level, near parity, is expected.
However, if the price rises to 1.06000, the medium- to long-term trend would shift to an uptrend, prompting a quick adjustment in strategy.
EURUSD Analysis for ShortsWe have a strong resistance level on daily and 4H time frame
expecting a drop from the range drawn
eurusd|foxforexA cup-handle formation has formed on the eurusd chart. A short position with a stop above the 1.035 level will be a profitable position.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement an could drop from this level to our tke profit.
Entry: 1.0354
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0420
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0263
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSDUnited states economic events and data releases could affect the EUR/USD's trade directional bias,Key Events and Potential Impacts to watch is as follow:
Fed Chair Powell's Testimony (February 11),Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress, and his remarks will be closely scrutinized for clues about future monetary policy decisions.
A hawkish tone (emphasizing inflation concerns and potential rate hikes) would likely strengthen the USD and push EUR/USD lower.
A dovish tone (highlighting economic risks and hinting at potential rate cuts) could weaken the USD, allowing EUR/USD to rise.
Another data print will be US CPI Data on (February 12) which will bring volatility in the space.
The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released and if the data is Higher-than-expected CPI and Core CPI figures (above forecasts of 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y) could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, strengthening the USD and pushing EUR/USD lower.
Lower-than-expected CPI data could suggest easing inflation, potentially leading the Fed to consider a more dovish approach, weakening the USD and allowing EUR/USD to rise.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook and Key Levels:
Bearish Signals: The EUR/USD pair is at risk of falling further, after breaking my demand floor on weekly. Technical indicators also support a bearish continuation, unless we have a weekly break and close above the supply roof on negative united states data print this week.
EURUSD Upside Potential is possible if The US Dollar (USD) fails to resume its rally, that will give Euro small upward traction ,but they have to break supply roof first and turn to demand floor to upswing
Trade War Impact:
The US trade war tensions could continue to influence the EUR/USD. Prolonged tariffs could lead to higher US inflation, potentially compelling the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance and strengthen the USD.
Overall Directional Bias:
Bearish Tentency: Given the technical signals and potential for a hawkish Fed stance, the EUR/USD may be biased toward the downside.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on market structure strategy which i developed for free and should not be considered financial advice at any given time ,don't come cry like a baby Trade with caution and conduct your own research.
EURUSD TRADE IDEA: SHORT | SELL (10/02)I think it is quite obvious that EURUSD will continue to the downside as predicted earlier.
It is simple following larger TF order flow
RR: 6.51
N.B.: This is not financial advice. Trade safely and with caution.
Weekly projection on E/UThis analysis shows a 5 day projection on how the Euro/ U.S Dollar pair will look like, starting from tomorrow, Monday to Friday, where our initial move is expected to be a buy to complete our bullish cycle, and our major anticipation is a sell from our upper resistance zone Indicated with orange rectangular shape, and if our lower trend line is broken, we re-enter at our support zone .
