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EURUSD analysis - 1H FVG and OB setupsOn the 1H timeframe, price has entered the green demand zone (1H FVG) around 1.1480 – 1.1520 after a strong bearish leg. We're expecting a bullish retracement from this zone, aiming toward the upper red FVG/OB zone around 1.1690 – 1.1715. 📌 There are two key scenarios: 1️⃣ Scenario 1: Price starts moving up from the green FVG → reaches red FVG zone → short setup after lower timeframe confirmation 2️⃣ Scenario 2: Price makes an initial move to ~1.1620 → pulls back to the green zone → pushes back up into the red OB → short setup on confirmation 🎯 Final target for both scenarios: a break below the green FVG zone and continuation down ✅ Entry only after confirmation from lower timeframes (3M–15M) ❌ No trades without confirmation
by ProfitaminFX
1
EUR/USD: The Last Bear Standing...As indicated on my previous EUR/USD idea ( that's still currently open ), I remain short EUR/USD given the technical aspect of things are still valid. Divergences are still in play along with a rising broadening pattern and the fact that we're trading at the yearly R3 level ( which is rare ). I suspect we will have some volatility with the ECB press conference tomorrow, so that should get things moving hopefully in the bearish direction. If we begin trading aggressively above 1.1800+, that will invalidate the short idea overall. If we roll over, I'm still looking for 1.13000 - 1.12000 as the target range for Q3 going into Q4. We'll see how this all develops. As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe!
Short
by InternalTraderNYC
8
EURUSD at Make-or-Break Zone: Time to Short?EURUSD – Key Data Out Today, Short Setup Confirmed? Today, several important economic indexes were released for both the Euro(EUR) and the Dollar(USD) . Let’s break them down in a simple way: Eurozone PMI Data: Mixed to Weak France: Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 (slightly lower than forecast) Services PMI : 49.7 (flat, but below 50 = contraction) Germany: Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 (weaker than expected) Services PMI : 50.1(slightly expansionary) Eurozone Overall: Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (still below 50) Services PMI : 51.2 (slightly stronger than forecast) ECB left the Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 2.15% , which was widely expected. U.S. Data( TVC:DXY ): Strong and Surprising Unemployment Claims: 217K (better than expected 227K) Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (below forecast of 52.7 – a negative surprise) Services PMI: 55.2 (well above forecast and previous – bullish for USD) Interpretation : The Eurozone's growth remains sluggish, especially in France and Germany. Despite a drop in U.S. manufacturing, the services sector remains strong, and unemployment data confirms labor market resilience. This mixed picture slightly tilts the balance in favor of the U.S. dollar, especially as the ECB remains on hold while the Fed may still consider being restrictive. Bias: Short EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) Fundamentals support a Short position in EURUSD, in line with the current technical setup. --------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour time frame to find the best Short position . EURUSD is currently trading in an Ascending Channel and at a Heavy Resistance zone($1.1845-$1.1602) . Also, in terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD is completing a microwave 5 of the main wave 5 . One of the most important supports ahead for EURUSD could be the 100_SMA(4-hour TF) . If the currently 4-hour candlestick forms a Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern , it is a better sign for EURUSD to fall . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . I expect EURUSD to decline to at least $1.169 AFTER breaking the lower line of the ascending channel . Second Target: Support zone($1.1642-$1.158) and Monthly Pivot Point. Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $1.1850 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
33
EUR/USD Hits Lowest Level Since Early JulyEUR/USD Hits Lowest Level Since Early July As the EUR/USD chart indicates today, the euro has fallen below the 1.1550 mark against the US dollar, reaching the lows of June 2025. As a result, July may become the first month in 2025 to record a decline in the currency pair. Why Is EUR/USD Declining? There are two key factors driving the euro’s weakness relative to the US dollar: → Anticipation of the Federal Reserve Meeting. At 21:00 GMT+3 today, the Fed’s interest rate decision will be released. According to Forex Factory, analysts expect the Federal Funds Rate to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. → Market Reaction to the US-EU Trade Agreement. The trade deal signed last weekend between the United States and Europe is being critically assessed by market participants. As noted in our Monday analysis, signs of a bearish takeover emerged on the chart following the agreement’s signing. Since then, EUR/USD has declined by approximately 1.3%. The question now is whether the downtrend will continue. Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart The upward channel that had remained valid since mid-May was decisively broken by bears this week. The nature of the breakout (highlighted by the red arrow) was particularly aggressive, with the price dropping from the 1.1710 level to the D point low without any meaningful interim recoveries. Key observations include: → The drop has resulted in a classic bearish A-B-C-D market structure, characterised by lower highs and lower lows. → On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI indicator has fallen into oversold territory, reaching its lowest point of 2025 so far. → Notably (as highlighted by the blue arrow), there was a strong rebound from the 1.1455 support level earlier. Bulls demonstrated significant strength at that time, breaking through the R resistance line. Given these factors, we could assume that after this week’s sharp decline, EUR/USD may attempt a short-term recovery from the support zone (highlighted in purple). Should this scenario unfold, potential resistance may emerge near the 1.1630 level, as this area aligns with: → The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the C→D decline; → The breakout point of the lower boundary of the previous ascending channel, indicating a shift in market balance in favour of the bears. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Europe and the US Sign Trade Agreement, EUR/USD DeclinesEurope and the US Sign Trade Agreement, EUR/USD Declines The past weekend was marked by the official signing of a trade agreement between the United States and Europe, as announced by US President Donald Trump and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen following their meeting in Scotland. According to reports, the agreement is based on a 15% baseline tariff on goods exported from Europe to the United States, with certain exemptions. As previously reported, a trade agreement with a 15% baseline tariff had earlier been concluded between the US and Japan. According to President Trump: → under no circumstances did he allow the baseline tariff for Europe to fall below 15%; → the European Union committed to investing in the US economy, purchasing weapons, and importing energy resources. The financial markets’ reaction to this news is noteworthy: → European stock indices opened the week with a bullish gap, reflecting relief that previously feared tariffs of up to 30% did not materialise; → the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting bearish momentum this morning. Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart As indicated by the black arrow, bearish sentiment intensified on Monday morning, pushing the pair towards the 1.1700 level, which had previously acted as resistance in mid-July. From the perspective of the ascending channel (shown in blue), its median line is currently acting as a resistance level – following contact with it, a short-term rally was broken (highlighted in purple). This reinforces the notion that bears are currently in control. Given the above, we could suggest that, should bearish sentiment persist on the EUR/USD chart, we may soon witness an attempt to break through the 1.1700 support level. A successful breach could open the path for further downside movement of the euro against the dollar, towards the lower boundary of the channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
DeGRAM | EURUSD is correcting from the channel boundary📊 Technical Analysis ● A second rejection at the upper channel/1.1780 supply (red arrows) signals overextension; price is retracing toward the mid-July demand cluster where the rising-channel floor and prior swing base intersect near 1.1600. ● Momentum remains positive on higher-time-frame: each pull-back since May has held the channel support, and the current decline is unfolding as a corrective ABC that projects into 1.1585-1.1620 — a historically bid zone. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Softer US Q2-GDP deflator cooled 2-yr yields, while July Euro-area CPI flash is expected to stay sticky, trimming the Fed–ECB policy gap and limiting EUR downside. ✨ Summary Buy 1.1585-1.1620; hold above 1.1594 targets 1.1687 → 1.1780. Long view invalidated on an H4 close below 1.1530. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
3
How Do Traders Use the Pivot Points Indicator? How Do Traders Use the Pivot Points Indicator? Pivot points are a popular technical analysis tool for spotting areas where the price is expected to react, i.e. pause or reverse. Calculated using the previous day’s high, low, and close, they’re projected onto the current session to highlight potential support and resistance levels, especially useful for intraday traders. Alongside stock charts, pivot point levels can be used in a wide variety of markets, including forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. As a versatile indicator, pivot points also come in many different types. This article breaks down the definition of pivot points, the variations traders use, and how they can fit into a broader trading strategy. A Deeper Look at Pivot Points A common question in technical analysis is, “What is a pivot point?” Pivot points trading, or pivot point theory, is a popular technical analysis concept used in a range of financial asset classes, including stocks, currencies, cryptocurrencies*, and commodities. The indicator assists traders in gauging overall market trends and determining possible support and resistance barriers. How to Read Pivot Points The pivot point indicator is static—it’s an average of the high, low, and close prices from the previous trading day. It includes three levels: pivot point (P), support (S), and resistance (R). If the price is above the pivot point, it is supposed to target resistance barriers. Conversely, if it’s below the pivot, it could move to support levels. Thus, support and resistance levels serve as targets or stop-loss zones. They remain constant throughout the period, enabling traders to plan ahead. In the EURUSD daily chart below, the price is trading above R2; therefore, market sentiment is assumed to be bullish. R3 indicates the next possible price target. Should a shift below P occur, bearishness arises, and S1 becomes the upcoming support level. Pivots are widely used with trend indicators such as moving averages and Fibonacci tools. In the chart below, Fibonacci retracements could be used to identify intermediate levels of support and resistance within widely placed pivots. How to Calculate Pivot Points? There are four key types of pivots, including standard, Woodie’s, Camarilla, and Fibonacci. While there’s no need to use a pivot points calculator—they’re calculated automatically when implemented on a price chart—it is worth looking at their formulas to understand how they differ from each other. Note the labels for the following formulas: P = pivot point H = high price L = low price C = close price Standard Pivot Points Traders commonly use standard pivot points. Traditional pivots (P) identify potential levels of support (S) and resistance (R) by averaging the previous trading period's high, low, and close prices. P = (H + L + C) / 3 S1 = (2 * P) - H S2 = P - (H - L) R1 = (2 * P) - L R2 = P + (H -L) Although they are popular among traders, they can produce false signals and lead to incorrect trades in ranging markets and during periods of high volatility. Woodie’s Pivot Points Woodie's pivots are similar to standard pivots but include a slight modification to the calculation. In Woodie's method, the close price is assigned more weight. P = (H + L + 2 * C) / 4 R1 = (2 * P) - L R2 = P + H - L S1 = (2 * P) - H S2 = P - H + L However, their extra sensitivity can make them less reliable during choppy markets or when the price lacks a clear direction. Camarilla Pivot Points Camarilla pivots use a set formula to generate eight levels: four support and four resistance. They are based on the previous day’s close and range and multiplied by a certain multiplier. The inner levels (R3 and S3) often act as reversal zones, while R4 and S4 are watched for breakouts. Still, in trending markets, the reversals can fail frequently. R4 = C + (H - L) x 1.5 R3 = C + (H - L) x 1.25 R2 = C + (H - L) x 1.1666 R1 = C + (H - L) x 1.0833 P = (High + Low + Close) / 3 S1 = C - (H - L) x 1.0833 S2 = C - (H - L) x 1.1666 S3 = C - (H - L) x 1.25 S4 = C - (H - L) x 1.5 Fibonacci Pivot Points Fibonacci pivot points are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a popular mathematical concept in technical analysis. They are calculated in the same way as the standard indicator. However, the levels of support and resistance are determined by including the Fibonacci sequence with a close monitoring of the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels as the primary price points. P = (High + Low + Close) / 3 S1 = P - (0.382 * (H - L)) S2 = P - (0.618 * (H - L)) R1 = P + (0.382 * (H - L)) R2 = P + (0.618 * (H - L)) Despite their popularity, Fibonacci pivots can become less reliable when the price reacts to other fundamental drivers. Trading with the Pivot Points Although every trader develops their own trading approach, there are common rules of pivot point trading that are expected to improve their effectiveness. Day Trading Day trading with pivot points is usually implemented for hourly and shorter intraday timeframes. As pivot levels are updated daily and calculated on the previous day's high, low, and close prices, this allows traders to react promptly to market changes and adjust their strategies. Some traders prefer Camarilla pivots as their calculation takes into account the volatility of the previous trading period to produce pivot levels closer to the current price. Medium-Term Trading When looking at a medium-term analysis, weekly pivot levels are added to four-hour and daily charts. These are calculated using the previous week's high, low, and close prices, which remain unchanged until the start of the next week. Long-Term Trading For longer-term analysis, traders use monthly pivots on weekly charts. These levels, gathered from the previous month's data, offer a broader picture of market trends and price movements over time. Pivot Point Trading Strategies The pivot points indicator is typically used in two ways – breakout and reversal trading. Breakout Trading Strategy The breakout approach seeks to take advantage of market momentum by entering trades when prices break above or below significant levels of support and resistance. - Bullish Breakout. When levels P and R1 are broken, and the price closes above either, it’s more likely a rise will occur. - Bearish Breakout. When levels P and S1 are broken, and the price closes below either, it’s more likely the price fall will occur. Strong momentum and high volume are two critical factors needed for a solid price movement in both cases. Trading Conditions If a breakout is confirmed, traders enter a trade in the breakout direction. A take-profit target might be placed at the next pivot level. A stop-loss level can be placed beyond the previous level or calculated according to a risk/reward ratio. Traders continuously monitor their trades and adjust their stop-loss levels to lock in potential returns if prices move in their favour. Reversal Trading Strategy The reversal strategy seeks to take advantage of a slowdown in market momentum by entering trades when prices stall at significant levels of support or resistance. - Bullish Reversal. When levels S1 and S2 are not broken and the price stalls above either, a reversal is more likely to occur. - Bearish Reversal. When levels R1 and R2 are not broken and the price stalls below either, a reversal is expected to happen. Note: Reversals are always confirmed by another indicator or a chart pattern. Trading Conditions If a reversal is confirmed, traders consider entering a trade in its direction. The next level may be a take-profit target, which might be trailed to the next level if the market conditions signal a continuation of a price move. A stop-loss level is typically placed below a swing low or above a swing high, depending on the trade direction. Pivot Points and Other Indicators While pivots show where the price may reverse, there’s nothing to say a market won’t trade through these areas. Therefore, traders typically pair them with other technical indicators and patterns. Candlestick and Chart Patterns Traders often combine levels with specific reversal candlestick formations, like three black crows/three white soldiers or engulfing patterns, to confirm a change in market movements. For example, a bullish engulfing candle forming at S1 could reinforce the idea of a reversal at that level. Moving Averages When a pivot aligns with a major moving average, e.g. the 50-period or 200-period EMA, it strengthens the area. As moving averages act as dynamic support and resistance levels, an overlap can signal a strong area where a reversal might occur. RSI and Stochastic Oscillator Momentum indicators like RSI or Stochastic help judge whether the price is likely to bounce or break through a pivot. If it hits support and RSI is oversold, that adds conviction. But if momentum is still strong in one direction, it might get ignored. Considerations Even with strong confluence, these combinations can fail. Markets don’t always respect technical alignment, especially around data releases or sharp movements in sentiment. For instance, in stocks, pivot points may be ignored if an earnings release strongly beats analyst estimates. Instead, they are believed to work when treated as one piece of a broader technical framework. Limitations Pivot points are widely used, but like any tool, they have flaws. They’re based purely on past price data, so they don’t account for news, sentiment shifts, or broader market context. - False signals in ranging markets: The price often oscillates around pivot zones in markets without a clear direction, meaning setups might not follow through. - Less reliable during strong trends: In trending conditions, the price can blow past several levels without reacting. - No built-in volatility filter: The points don’t adapt to changing volatility, so levels might be too close or too far apart to be useful. - Lag in real-time shifts: Since pivots are pre-calculated, they don’t adjust mid-session as new data emerges. Final Thoughts Pivot points are widely used in stock trading as well as in commodity, cryptocurrency*, and currency markets. While they can be useful tools, their limitations cannot be overlooked. It is essential to conduct a comprehensive analysis and confirm the indicator signals with fundamental and technical analysis tools. FAQ What Is a Pivot Point in Trading? The pivot point meaning refers to a technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels. It’s calculated using the previous day’s high, low, and close prices, and helps traders find areas where the price may react during the current session. What Is the Best Indicator for Pivot Points? There isn’t one best indicator, but traders often pair pivot points with moving averages, RSI, or candlestick patterns to confirm a potential reversal. The most effective setup usually depends on the strategy and market conditions. What Are the Pivot Points’ R1, R2, and R3? R1, R2, and R3 are resistance levels above the central point. They represent increasingly stronger potential resistance zones where the price may stall or reverse. Which Is Better, Fibonacci or Camarilla? Fibonacci offers wider levels based on retracement ratios, useful in trending markets. Camarilla focuses on tighter reversal zones, which are mostly used for intraday strategies. Each suits different trading styles; neither is objectively better. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Higher Timeframe Ice Zone - Lower Timeframe Double TopAfter a pretty rough end to the week the FX:EURUSD has rallied up into an Ice Zone - Which is a previous price level that has acted as both support and resistance in the recent past. As we venture down to the lower timeframe we'll see that price action has also formed a double top level at that pattern which is a classic price pattern for a bearish reversal. If you're looking for a more conservative entry then waiting for a 2618 opportunity could be something you do as well. Please leave any questions or comments below & be sure to give me a follow if you want to be notified of my trading ideas. Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
2
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count Signals Downside TargetsThe EUR/USD chart is displaying a completed 5-wave Elliott impulse structure, suggesting the potential start of a larger corrective move to the downside. Wave 5 appears to have finished after a classic ending diagonal pattern, with price now breaking below the wave 4 support trendline — a strong confirmation of trend exhaustion. Currently, price is retracing upward towards the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone of the last impulsive leg, around 1.15912–1.16383, which may serve as the final rejection zone for bears to re-enter. This area aligns perfectly with prior support-turned-resistance and is considered the potential reversal pocket. If price holds below the 1.17869 invalidation level, the structure supports the beginning of an ABC correction or a larger bearish impulse. Target 1 (T1): 1.14800 Target 2 (T2): 1.13915 Stop Loss (SL): 1.17869 This scenario remains valid as long as the price does not break above 1.17869. A clean break and close above this level would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible wave extension.
by Money_Dictators
EURUSD FORMED BEARISH PENNANT. THE PRICE IS READY TO DROP.EURUSD FORMED BEARISH PENNANT. THE PRICE IS READY TO DROP. EURUSD has been trading sideways within the last day, showing lower highs and higher lows. Eventually, the price has formed the pennant chart pattern. What is a pennant? A pennant chart pattern is a short-term continuation pattern in technical analysis, resembling a small symmetrical triangle, formed after a strong price movement (flagpole). It consists of converging trendlines, indicating a brief consolidation before the trend resumes. Bullish pennants form after an uptrend, bearish pennants after a downtrend. The price is expected to decline towards 1.14500 support level
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
1
EURUSD Is Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.166. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.159. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
EURUSD market structure analysis on M15, H1 timeframesH1 Timeframe – Main Trend: BULLISH 🟢 Current Situation: The H1 structure is showing a clear sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) ⇒ indicating an uptrend. The market is currently in a retracement phase following the last bullish impulse. Price is approaching a demand zone from a previous structure, where buy orders may be stacked. 📉 M15 Timeframe – Main Trend: BEARISH (within H1 pullback) 🔍 Current Observations: While H1 is in a retracement, M15 shows a clear bearish market structure (Lower Lows – Lower Highs). However: Price has tapped into the H1 demand zone. A liquidity grab (sweep of highs/lows) just occurred on M15. This was followed by a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside ⇒ signaling potential absorption of sell-side liquidity and a reversal in alignment with the higher timeframe (H1).
by quangcttn
1
EURUSD corrective pullback support at 1.1526The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1526 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1526 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1714 – initial resistance 1.1810 – psychological and structural level 1.1885 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1526 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1470 – minor support 1.1400 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1526. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
1
A POTENTIAL TREND REVERSAL Hello Traders 👋 What are your views about EURUSD Looking at the daily timeframe we can see that price action didn't take out liquidity at the top which is indicated with a blue rectangle. Am seeing price action retracing to that liquidity zone which is indicated with a blue rectangle and from there reversing to the downside. Let's look at the fundamental analysis of EURUSD. Trump announced the conclusion of a trade agreement with the EU: The EU will invest $600 billion more in the US than before 15% tariff on EU goods, including cars All EU countries will open their markets to the US EU to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the US. Energy is a key part of the agreement. PS: It is worth monitoring the market reaction from the opening. Pay attention to the market reaction during different sessions. Markets may react ambiguously, but against the general backdrop, the following reaction should be expected: USD → sharp rise (dollar strengthening due to capital inflows and growth in energy exports). EUR → down, as the EU will bear the costs of tariffs and rising imports from the US. Gold → down (correction or decline due to the strengthening of the dollar and reduced demand for hedging). BTC → neutral or slight decline (due to USD strength): If the agreement stimulates the economy and liquidity, this could be a bullish factor for BTC. ………………………………………….
Short
by enwemadufranklyn1989
2