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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Why All You Need Is the Chart: Let the Market Speak FirstYou missed the news? Doesn’t matter. The chart already heard it for you. ________________________________________ 1. The Myth of Being “Informed” Modern traders feel pressured to be constantly plugged in: • Twitter alerts • Trump’s latest outburst • CNBC headlines It feels like you’re missing out if you’re not watching everything. But here’s the truth: By the time you read the news, the market already priced it in. Being "informed" doesn’t make you early . It usually makes you late . ________________________________________ 2. The Chart Already Knows Imagine a bullish surprise in the economy. You didn’t catch it live. But when you open your chart, you see this: 📈 A bullish engulfing candle bouncing cleanly off major support. That’s all you need. That’s your trade. You don’t need to know why it happened. The chart speaks last. And the chart speaks loudest. ________________________________________ 3. Price Is the Final Judge All the noise — opinions, reports, breaking headlines — flows into a single output: price. • Economic collapse? The chart shows a break. • Political turmoil? Price still rejects resistance. Price is truth. Instead of asking: " What happened? ", start asking: " What is price doing? " ________________________________________ 4. Real-Life Analogy You don’t need to read the newspaper to know it’s raining. Just look out the window. 🌧️ Same with trading. Just look at the chart. The price is your weather forecast. React to that. Not to noise. ________________________________________ 5. What to Do Instead of Watching News: • Draw clean support/resistance levels • Wait for real confirmation (engulfings, breakouts, rejections) • Manage risk — always • Be patient. Let the market show its hand ________________________________________ Final Thought: If something important happened, you’ll see it on the chart. You don’t need 10 sources. You don’t need speed. You need clarity. Let the chart speak. It knows more than the news ever will.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
2
EUR/USD , here’s a clean pattern breakdown:1. Market Structure Range-Bound Consolidation Zone between 1.1325 – 1.1383 Multiple equal lows near 1.1325 → liquidity pool Strong bullish impulse leg prior → possible bullish continuation base Lower highs forming since the spike near 1.1570 → potential descending triangle if support fails 2. Key Levels (Marked on Chart) Resistance: 1.1383 → Recent high / breakout cap 1.1421 → Prior HTF supply 1.1472 / 1.1570 → Major HTF OBs Support: 1.1340 → Micro support 1.1325 → Liquidity base (very reactive) 1.1279 → Key HTF Demand Zone (OB + FVG) 1.1248 → Breaker block zone 3. Patterns Detected Mini Range Formation between 1.1325 – 1.1380 Equal Lows Sweep Setup → classic bullish liquidity trap play Break & Retest Play forming around 1.1380 zone Candle wicks show bullish absorption at the base (1.1325) Volume rising on bounces = demand showing up 4. Trade Bias & Setup Ideas Bias: Bullish above 1.1325, bearish below 1.1279 Intraday Trade Idea: Look for sweep of 1.1325 liquidity, then H1 bullish engulfing or M15 engulfing + volume surge TP1: 1.1380, TP2: 1.1420, SL: below 1.1310 (1.5x ATR) Swing Play Idea: If price closes above 1.1380 with strength, potential breakout toward 1.1420 → 1.1470 5. Session Play Map London: likely sweep + bounce New York: continuation or breakout zone Asia: typically range-bound or sweep setups EUR/USD – Swing Trade Recommendation As of: April 25, 2025 – 3:25 PM EST Broker: Oanda Current Price: 1.1368 ATR (H1): ~19 pips Risk Level: Medium Bias: Bullish ✅ 🧠 Swing Setup Logic We're in a bullish continuation zone after multiple defenses of the 1.1325 liquidity base. Price is compressing below 1.1380, forming a potential breakout structure. HTF trend remains bullish with W1 + D1 both holding higher lows. Momentum building. 🛠️ Swing Trade Setup Entry Plan: Buy on H4 close above 1.1385 with confirmation from volume spike or Buy the retest of 1.1380–1.1365 zone with bullish engulfing on H1/M30 SL: 1.1310 (1.5x ATR buffer under structure) TP1: 1.1420 (2R) TP2: 1.1470 (3R) TP3 (trail): If daily candle closes above 1.1470, trail using H1 higher lows Lot Size (1% risk on $20K): ~1.05 lots (with 58-pip SL) ⚠️ Risk Filters News Risk: No high-impact events in next 6 hrs ✅ Volume Check: Only enter if breakout candle has >20% above avg volume Rejection Filter: Avoid entry if breakout stalls at 1.1385 (double top warning) 🧩 Final Score (Pre-Trade Grading) HTF Trend: ✅ (2/2) Confluence: ✅ (2/2) Price Behavior: ✅ (2/2) RR Quality: ✅ (2/2) News Filtered: ✅ (2/2) Total Score: 10/10 → TRADE CONFIRMED ✅ Swing Recap Bias: Long Entry Trigger: Break & Retest or Breakout of 1.1385 Target Range: 1.1420 → 1.1470 Stop: 1.1310 Risk:Reward: 1:2.2 to 1:3.3 Confidence: High
Long
by wojoforex
1
EUR/USD Bearish Reversal Setup | Key Levels and Short-The Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair is showing a potential bearish reversal setup on the 4-hour timeframe. The current price is around 1.14192, and after testing the resistance zone near 1.15259, the market is showing signs of weakness. Analysis: Price may retest the 1.15259 resistance zone. A rejection from that zone could trigger a bearish move. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.12275 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.09943 Take Profit 3 (TP3): 1.07564 Note: Wait for confirmation before entering any trade. Always apply proper risk management. This setup is shared for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own analysis before trading. #Forex #EURUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction
Short
by Forex_Crypto_trader0
2
Playing the continuation longAlways trying to keep things simple: Trend if clearly UP and it's not showing sign of weakness so far. So until that changes, I'll be looking to enter a long at a discount. Right now we over extended quite a bit especially on monday 21st during the easter holiday with low volume. And today (22nd) was an eventless day with no important news and while we had a tweet from bessent about china's deal, it wasn't really anything important at all. So given all of that, we could expect a pullback and most likely a bit more of a pullback tomorrow. Now we have two possibilities for the continuation in my opinion. Either the previous week range was the consolidation needed for the price to make the next leg up and we're just gonna tap into that liquidity before moving back up (in which case an entry around the weekly pivot at 1.136, right below the golden zone from last week range to yesterday's highs fib with a great support at the 4H gap at 1.129 on the weekly R1 to limit our risk. Or second option is a deeper retracement back into a much stronger confluence (but also less likely to happen) at the weekly support which happens to coincide with a bit daily FVG, weekly R3 and the golden zone from the fib from before the big impulse up we just had until now: That would take us all the way down to 1.115 (not in a straight line though) which is why I said it's the less likely scenario. That being said, if we were to go down all the way there I would definitely take a stab long at that level for a great risk:reward potential. With those two options on the table I'll just wait for a sign of reversal on the LTF before going in either of those trades but we can see on the 1h chart that the RSI is forming a hidden bullish divergence already so things are looking alright for the first idea. I'll try to post more updates as we get to the entry and see if I take the trade. I want to mention one very important thing in this idea though: those are VERY trying times for any traders, be it in stock, forex, crypto or even investors. It's a fact and bear markets/volatile markets are notoriously hard to navigate. You might have the right idea but get stopped before price going for your target despite using proper SL management at proper levels etc as any news/tweet can take you out in an instant in a news driven environment. What I'm trying to say is: do not trade in the coming days/weeks if you don't have to. Practice, paper trade, have fun with a cheap prop firm challenge to limit the risk to a couple dozen bucks etc. I trade for a living so I have to keep going but it is a lot harder even if you try to trade with the trend and apply the rules that makes you profitable for years. April so far is a red month for me (down about 2.5%), the first red since march of last year, that says a lot. It's fine and I'm not worried, but using proper risk management and knowing when to stay out is just as important as charting and finding out ideas, especially during those times. That's why I'm only down a few thousands instead of blowing up or wiping months of progress. Things will calm down in due time and it will be a lot easier with price respecting levels, not running away at every opportunity and not retesting breakout levels etc etc. Those are much easier time to make a lot of money despite having lower volatility and less pips/day moves. Be patient and consistent, now is not the time to look for new trading strategies, youtube gurus, magical indicators or whatnot! Good luck to you all traders out there!
Long
by Nordic_Wings
4
EUR/USD: Long-Term Breakout with Fundamental and Tech ConfluenceFor the first time since 2008, EUR/USD is showing signs of a potential long-term trend reversal. The pair has broken above the descending channel that has defined the bearish structure for over 15 years. But this is not just a technical breakout — the fundamentals support this move as well. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as the market shifts its rate expectations. Instead of the 1–2 rate cuts initially priced in for 2025, forecasts now suggest 2–3 cuts, possibly more depending on the pace of economic softening. This aligns well with the breakout we are observing on the chart. Technical picture: confirming the breakout on all levels 1.The descending trendline from 2008 has been broken. 2.On the weekly timeframe, the price has already secured a close above this trendline, confirming the breakout structurally. 3.On the monthly timeframe, the 100-period SMA sits right at the neckline area of a large double bottom reversal pattern — adding one more layer of confirmation. These factors are not isolated — they support and reinforce each other, creating a confluence of signals across multiple timeframes. Target according to classical technical analysis: The minimal target for this breakout stands at 1.2300. This is both a major resistance zone from previous highs and approximately 70% of the height of the larger double bottom pattern — fully in line with the textbook approach to classical chart analysis.
Long
by borschenkovitc
3
EURUSDHello, traders Trend Overview: The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a bullish trend, supported by a prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation (coiling price action) possibly triggering a corrective pullback towards a newly formed support zone, previously a resistance level. Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: 1.1240 – Previous resistance turned support, key level for potential bounce. 1.1144 – Secondary support level if 1.1240 fails. 1.1000 and 1.0890 – Stronger support in case of extended retracement. Resistance Levels: 1.1475 – Initial resistance level on the upside. 1.1595 – Next target if bullish momentum continues. 1.1700 and 1.1830 – Long-term resistance and key breakout point. Market Sentiment & Price Action: The recent corrective pullback aligns with normal market fluctuations within an uptrend. A bullish bounce from the 1.1240 support level could trigger an upside move, targeting the 1.1475 resistance level and potentially extending towards 1.1595 and 1.1700 – 1.1830 over a longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.1240 support, accompanied by a daily close below this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. This could lead to further downside pressure, potentially testing the 1.1144 level, with an extended decline towards 1.1000 and 1.0890 if selling pressure intensifies. Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish structure as long as the 1.1240 support holds. A successful bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend, targeting higher resistance zones. However, a decisive break below 1.1240 and a daily close under this level could shift sentiment bearish, leading to further downside retracement.
by JuliaKathleen
1
EURUSD Bullish or Bearish Today?As you can see in my chart drawing, EURUSD is going through an uptrend channel. Now it's coming from the channel resistance, so it might be a pullback until the channel bottom. On the other hand, the euro is gaining fundamental strength against the USD! Therefore, the trend may persist until this week's NFP. This analysis is based on the current trend and fundamental situation of the market. This information is not financial advice or any trade signal; it's just for educational purposes, so please do your own analysis before taking any entry on this asset. Thank you
Long
by nodeposittrading
2
EUR/USD – Perfection in Motion🔥 EUR/USD – Perfection in Motion 🔥 This 20HR chart is a textbook example of precision trading: Price tapped perfectly off the Fibonacci 0.236 at 1.1368 and held. You can clearly see how the structure is respecting both the 11HR low and 18D Candle Bottom zone. The rejection wick from the top aligns with the 20HR Previous High at 1.1572, adding confluence to this current retracement. We're now in a tight reaction zone, where the next candle or two will tell the story: is it continuation… or deeper pullback? This is why I focus on: ✅ Zone behavior ✅ Candle reaction ✅ Trend maturity Not just noise. 📊 "The market doesn't lie — it just waits for you to listen." #EURUSD #SmartMoney #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingStructure #PerfectionInCharts
Long
by MoNi_MoN
2
Will the EUR/USD find support and rally or give up it's run?In this video I go over EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NVDA & SPX. With an overall bearish outlook on the U.S. Dollar, I'm watching for support to hold above 1.1200 on the EUR/USD in order to continue the rally. Although a pullback was expected after an aggressive up move over the span of 3 weeks, this will be interesting with a good amount of economic data set to release beginning on Tuesday. We'll see if Bulls hold up or if Bears decide to show some strength. As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
2
EURUSDEUR/USD Directional Bias in the Face of Tariff War The ongoing tariff war—particularly between the US and China, but also involving threats of US tariffs on the Eurozone—is exerting a complex but generally bullish bias on the EUR/USD pair in the short term, despite underlying economic headwinds for the Eurozone Key Drivers of EUR/USD Directional Bias 1. US Dollar Weakness from Trade War Fears The escalation of US-China tariffs and threats of additional US tariffs on Eurozone goods have led to increased fears of a US recession and higher inflation, both of which are negative for the dollar. As US companies face higher costs and potentially lower revenues due to tariffs and retaliation, the market expects the US economy to falter faster than others, prompting capital outflows from the dollar and into other currencies, including the euro. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to multi-year lows, supporting EUR/USD gains. 2. Euro as a Relative Beneficiary Despite the ECB's dovish stance and recent rate cut, the euro has benefited from the dollar’s weakness and the perception that Europe may weather the trade war fallout better than the US, at least in the short run. The Eurozone’s willingness to consider fiscal support measures and the potential for capital repatriation from US assets to Europe further support the euro. 3. Market Sentiment and Positioning Speculative positioning is increasingly bullish on the euro, with net long positions at their highest since September 2024. However, commercial hedgers are extending short exposure, suggesting caution and the potential for volatility. The pair is approaching overbought levels, so while the bias is up, a short-term retracement is possible if the rally becomes overstretched. 4. Risks and Uncertainties Any signs of de-escalation in the tariff war or a sudden improvement in US-China or US-EU trade negotiations could quickly reverse the euro’s gains. The Eurozone is not immune to trade war fallout; ECB estimates suggest tariffs could cut Eurozone GDP by 0.5–1 percentage point, which could weigh on the euro if realized Summary Table: EUR/USD in Tariff War Context Factor Impact on EUR/USD US-China/EU Tariff Escalation Bullish for EUR/USD US Recession Fears Bullish for EUR/USD ECB Rate Cuts Limits EUR upside Eurozone Fiscal Support Supports EUR Market Positioning Bullish, but watch for volatility Trade War De-escalation Bearish for EUR/USD Conclusion In the current tariff war environment, the EUR/USD directional bias is bullish, driven primarily by US dollar weakness and relative safe-haven flows into the euro. However, this bias is fragile—vulnerable to changes in trade policy rhetoric, economic data surprises, and any signs of de-escalation. Near-term, EUR/USD could continue to test higher resistance levels, but overbought conditions and Eurozone economic risks may cap gains or trigger corrections.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
2
Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker USD📌 EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker US Dollar 📉 🌍 Fundamental Overview EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.1400, as market sentiment remains sensitive to developments in the US-China trade situation and broader monetary policy expectations. Despite recent USD weakness — where the greenback lost ground against all G10 currencies this April — the Euro is facing renewed selling pressure amid rising speculation about further ECB rate cuts. ECB policymakers, including Olli Rehn and François Villeroy de Galhau, highlighted the increasing risks of missing the 2% inflation target, reinforcing the need for more monetary easing if necessary. Meanwhile, mixed signals between Trump and Beijing over trade negotiations have kept uncertainty high, putting both USD and risk sentiment in flux. 📈 Key Economic Events to Watch US Data: JOLTS Job Openings Q1 GDP Preliminary ISM Manufacturing PMI ADP Employment Change Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Core PCE Price Index (March) Eurozone Data: Q1 GDP Preliminary April HICP Inflation Recent weaker-than-expected Spanish GDP (0.6% vs. forecast 0.7%) also adds pressure on the broader Eurozone outlook. 📊 Technical Outlook – EUR/USD Immediate Resistance: 1.1450 – 1.1475 Immediate Support: 1.1375 – 1.1340 The pair is now hovering near the 1.1400 psychological level, with slight bearish momentum: A break below 1.1375 could open the path towards 1.1340. On the upside, holding above 1.1400 and reclaiming 1.1450 would be needed to revive bullish momentum. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains trapped around 99.20, hinting at limited immediate USD strength but vulnerable to macro catalysts. 🧠 Trading Strategy Prefer short-term sell setups if EUR/USD fails to hold 1.1400 and breaks below 1.1375. Bullish setups are only valid if Price closes firmly above 1.1450, aiming towards 1.1475 resistance. ⚡ Traders should stay cautious ahead of major data this week, especially US NFP and Core PCE, which could redefine short-term Dollar strength. 💬 Are you watching for a deeper pullback or waiting for a bounce above 1.1450? Let’s discuss! 👇👇👇
Short
by MMFlowTrading
2
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.5500 back down My analysis this week is quite similar to GU. I’ll be looking for short opportunities to target a demand zone below current price. We’ve seen consolidation over the past week, which has built liquidity on both sides—and it's only a matter of time before that liquidity is swept. What I’ll be watching for is a reaction at the current supply, where I’ll wait for price to slow down and distribute, giving us an opportunity to catch a retracement down toward a key area of interest for buys. If price reaches 1.12000 or lower, I’ll be looking for signs of accumulation and potential longs from there. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: - The DXY has been bearish, but is approaching a demand zone, which could cause a reversal—aligning with EU shorts. - A strong weekly supply zone is in play, which could trigger a bearish reaction. - Plenty of liquidity and imbalances lie to the downside, ready to be cleared. - A retracement is likely, considering the extended bullish momentum recently. - Current consolidation suggests a breakout is near, and this supply zone is my nearest POI for shorts. P.S. Stay flexible—once the consolidation breaks, assess how price behaves. Don’t lock yourself into one bias; always be prepared to adapt to what the market shows you.
Short
by Hassan_fx
7
Why does it always go against you? You might be new to trading, you may have several years of experience. But, where a lot of people still seem to go wrong is in not realising the relationships. I have posted hundreds of educational posts here on Tradingview from cartoons, trying to simplify techniques through to market relationships between technical systems such as Elliott Wave and Wyckoff. Many new traders fall foul of social media posts covering "SMC - Smart Money Concepts" and are not seasoned enough to appreciate what or why these can work for some and not for others. You have Elliott Wave traders, there is a saying along the lines of "if you put 10 Elliott traders in a room searching for a wave count you will come out with 11 different answers" This isn't to say Elliott doesn't work, nor Smart Money. The market seeks liquidity, it forms seemingly complex patterns that humans try to make sense of. We are great at that, seeing patterns even if they are not there. - Look, there's an upside-down butterfly 1.618 extension! First, you need to appreciate Elliott Wave counts on smaller timeframe are pointless, especially in the age of algo's and bots. However, sentiment on the larger timeframes can't really be spoofed. In this first image; you can see a market wave that is straight out of a textbook. Let's also add some Wyckoff; if you were to visualise this - Wyckoff schematics would be visible on smaller timeframes, the Green boxes represent accumulation and the Red show distribution. Let's overlay and Elliott Wave count - Take that to the next level, this count is only part of a higher fractal count. How does this fit into smart money concepts? well, it's more like - How does Smart Money fit into this? Elliott waves and Wyckoff have been around for over 100 years. Many of the techniques shown on YT video's today can be traced back to these older concepts. Now, if you can see how a 1-2 EW count pushes up for a 3. You can zoom in again and start to see what to expect when trading using SMC. In this image you can see a drop, then a gap as price pushes back up (I haven't bothered drawing wicks for simplicity assume their inside the box) Many traders would now anticipate a move that looks something like this. Only to see price do this Yeah - you're not the only one! The next issue is where and how Supply and Demand is drawn. Ok, the gap didn't hold, it must be the demand level there. GO AGAIN!!! How did that play out? Trade 1, Trade 2 = What about now? Price holds the support This time you are afraid to go in. Then one of two things happens. 1) Or 2) In the first image, we can see a sweep of prior liquidity and that creates momentum for a move up. In the second image, price simply melts away. This is an easy fix. It all comes down to understanding what the charts are trying to tell you. People love to talk about how "Smart Money" is the banks and institutional players - how they are playing against you on every click of the button. The truth is, most people don't understand the market. When larger players enter the market, the can leave a pretty obvious footprint. In addition to that - they leave behind orders they had but were unable to fill. These orders they will be defended with even more buying or selling (if they need to), and this is the premise for a rally and pullback or a drop to pullback. Now, visualise a 1-2 Elliott Wave move. Why do you think 2 often comes back so deep? What would you expect the move from 2-3 to do? Powerful push, yes? In this image, the move that created demand is simply the opposing colour candle before the power play. The significant move pushed up (showing institutional involvement). Hence, a location they will likely defend. In addition to the push up, they pushed with so much money - it created a natural gap. This type of example doesn't always have to be a power play 1-5 up, it could be visualised on pullback moves too. Here's a great example recently on Euro. The demand candle 'buy before the sell" is clearly targeted on the way up. Price fails to close above it, drops, goes back to retest - sweeps and drops. If you were to zoom in you will see on smaller timeframes evidence of a Wyckoff schematic with a UTAD. Add a volume profile there. As the price breaks above, after it's pullback you can see an acceleration in price and of course the area has the PoC. Back to where people go wrong. They will see this GAP created and assume price will come back here to reject and go. However, look closer and the demand that started the move is very near that gap. Where is the juicy liquidity? PoC is another little clue. Let's take this to another level. In this image I have a range, using the prior high just to give the example in this post. We are in an uptrend = we just broke the high, we expect a Pullback. Where would that likely target? Zoom in again. This time I have added a fixed range volume tool. What do you know?! Anyways, once you get a handle on the bigger picture and understand the relationships, you can zoom into any timeframe you like - the game is always the same. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
1
What Is a PD Array in ICT, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is a PD Array in ICT, and How Can You Use It in Trading? The PD array, or Premium and Discount array, is a key concept within the Inner Circle Trader methodology, designed to help traders map market movements and identify high-probability zones. By breaking down price behaviour into premium and discount levels, along with tools like order blocks and fair value gaps, the PD array provides a structured framework for analysis. This article explores its components, applications, and how traders can integrate it into their strategies. What Is a PD Array? An ICT PD array, short for Premium and Discount array, is a concept developed by Michael J. Huddleston, the mind behind the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. At its core, the PD array is a framework used to organise price levels and zones on a chart where significant institutional activity is likely to occur. These zones highlight areas of interest such as potential support or resistance, points where liquidity resides, or regions that might attract price movement. The PD array divides the market into two primary zones: premium and discount. These zones help traders gauge whether the price is above or below its equilibrium, often calculated using the 50% level of a significant price range. In practical terms, prices in the premium zone are typically considered attractive in a downtrend and unattractive in an uptrend, while prices in the discount zone are more attractive in an uptrend and less attractive in a downtrend. Beyond premium and discount zones, PD arrays include specific elements like order blocks, which are regions linked to institutional buying or selling, and fair value gaps (FVGs), which are imbalances or gaps in price that the market often seeks to revisit. Together, these elements create a structured roadmap for traders to interpret price behaviour. Unlike a static indicator, an ICT PD array is dynamic and requires traders to interpret price movements in real time, considering the broader market context. It’s not a quick fix but a methodical approach to understanding how price delivers across different levels, offering a clearer view of where high-probability reactions could occur. The PD array is often combined with other ICT concepts, like market structure shifts or SMT divergence, to sharpen analysis and focus on precise market opportunities. Premium and Discount Zones of a PD Array The foundation of a PD array starts with defining the premium and discount zones. This is typically done by identifying a significant price swing—either a low to a high or vice versa—and applying a Fibonacci retracement. The 50% level of this range serves as the equilibrium point, dividing the chart into two zones: - Premium zone: Price levels above 50%, often considered less attractive in an uptrend and more attractive in a downtrend. - Discount zone: Price levels below 50%, seen as more attractive in an uptrend and less attractive in a downtrend. This equilibrium acts as a baseline, helping traders assess whether the price is likely to reverse, consolidate, or continue based on its position relative to the 50% mark. Tools Within the PD Array The PD array doesn’t rely on a fixed set of tools. Instead, it offers a collection of components traders can use to refine their analysis. While the choice of tools can vary, they’re often ranked in a loose hierarchy, known as a PD array matrix, based on their importance within the ICT methodology. Let’s break down how this structure works. Order Blocks Order blocks are areas where institutional traders placed large buy or sell orders, often leading to significant price moves. On a chart, they appear as the last bullish or bearish candle before a sharp reversal. Order blocks are highly prioritised within the PD array because they indicate zones of potential support or resistance. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) FVGs are gaps between price levels that form when the market moves too quickly to fill orders evenly. These imbalances create "unfinished business" in the market, and price often revisits these areas to restore balance. They are especially useful for spotting potential reversals or continuation points. Breaker Blocks Breaker blocks form when order blocks fail. When supply or demand zones are unable to hold and the market structure shifts, breaker blocks emerge, highlighting key levels to monitor. Mitigation Blocks Mitigation blocks are related to breaker blocks but form after a market structure shift, where the price makes a lower high (in an uptrend) or a higher low (in a downtrend). They function the same as breaker blocks, but the key difference is in the failure of a new high/low before the trend reverses. Liquidity Voids Liquidity voids are areas on the chart where there’s little to no trading activity, often following sharp price movements. These large FVGs are often revisited by price as the market seeks to rebalance liquidity, making them significant for identifying future price movements. Rejection Blocks ICT rejection blocks are similar in concept to order blocks but consist of the wicks present on a given timeframe where an order block could be drawn. They are essentially a refined version of an order block where the price may reverse. Old Lows or Highs Old lows or highs represent liquidity pools where traders place stop orders. These levels are magnets for the price, as the market often seeks to trigger these stops before reversing. Identifying these points helps traders anticipate where the price might gravitate. Using ICT PD Arrays for Trading Let’s consider how to use the PD array of the ICT methodology. Evaluating Trend Structure Before anything else, traders typically assess the broader trend by analysing highs and lows. The goal is to identify the current structure and wait for the market to form a new significant high or low that aligns with the existing trend. For instance, in an uptrend, a trader might wait for a new higher high to form, followed by a retracement. Once the new high or low is established, traders often draw a Fibonacci retracement tool between the previous low and the recent swing high (or vice versa for a downtrend). This creates a clear division of the price range into premium and discount zones, providing the foundation of the PD array. Retracement into the PD Array As the price retraces within the range, traders watch for it to reach the premium zone in a downtrend or the discount zone in an uptrend. This positioning is essential—it signals that the price has reached an area where the risk-reward profile may be more favourable. Finding Specific Setups Within these zones, traders use the tools of the PD array to refine their approach. For instance, an FVG might act as a key level, particularly if it sits just ahead of an order block. Alternatively, a breaker block might signal a potential reversal if the price aligns with the broader trend structure. By combining these elements, traders can narrow their focus to setups that align with both the PD array and the underlying market conditions. The Limitations of ICT PD Arrays While ICT PD arrays offer a structured framework for analysing price behaviour, they’re not without their challenges. Traders relying on this methodology should be aware of its limitations to avoid potential pitfalls. Here are some key considerations: - Subjectivity in Marking Zones: Identifying premium and discount zones, as well as order blocks or other components, can vary between traders. This subjectivity means that no two analyses are identical, which may lead to inconsistent outcomes. - Experience Required: Effectively using PD arrays demands a solid understanding of market structure, liquidity concepts, and the ICT methodology. It can feel overwhelming for beginners without adequate practice. - Higher Timeframe Dependence: While PD arrays are valuable, they’re more popular on higher timeframes. Traders focusing solely on smaller timeframes might encounter more false signals. - Dynamic Nature: Markets evolve quickly, and PD arrays require traders to adapt in real time. This dynamic quality can be a challenge for those who struggle with decision-making under pressure. - Overfitting Risk: With so many tools available within the ICT framework, it’s easy to overanalyse or misinterpret signals, leading to analysis paralysis. The Bottom Line ICT PD arrays offer traders a structured framework to analyse market movements and identify key price zones, helping them refine their strategies. By combining these arrays with other tools and techniques, traders can gain deeper insights into institutional activity. FAQ What Is the ICT PD Array? The ICT PD array meaning refers to a Premium and Discount array, a trading concept developed within the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. It organises price levels and zones into premium and discount areas, helping traders analyse where the price is likely to react and reverse and place entry and exit points. The framework includes tools like order blocks, fair value gaps, and liquidity voids to identify potential areas of institutional interest. What Is a Premium Array in Forex? A premium array in forex refers to the portion of a price range above its equilibrium level, typically the 50% mark of a significant swing high and low. Traders consider this zone less attractive for buying, as it’s closer to overvaluation, and often watch for potential selling opportunities. What Is a Discount Array in Forex? A discount array is the zone below the equilibrium level of a price range. It represents a potentially more favourable area for potential buying opportunities, as prices are considered undervalued relative to the swing high and low. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD: Possible Fall Ahead? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the EUR/USD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that following a sharp decline in the Dollar Index (DXY), the pair experienced a bullish move, reaching the 1.15 supply zone. If the price manages to stabilize and close below the 1.15–1.17 area, we can anticipate a further drop in EUR/USD to fill the created Liquidity Void (LV). This analysis will be updated accordingly. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
EURUSD below its 4H MA50 signals more selling.The EURUSD pair broke last Wednesday below its 4H MA50 for the first time since the start of April and is now consolidating under it. Within its 3-month Channel Up, this has always been a signal of more downtrend to come as it was technically halfway through the Bearish Legs of the pattern. Given that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is the medium-term Support, our Target is at 1.12500, just above the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. Check also the 4H RSI sequences between these 3 Bearish Legs. It is exactly ranging between the levels it did half-way through those Legs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Optimal Position Size May Reduce RisksOptimal Position Size May Reduce Risks Position sizing in trading is a crucial yet often overlooked aspect of risk management. It's the art of determining how much capital to allocate to each trade, balancing the potential for effective trading with the need to protect your investment. This article delves into the principles of position sizing, offering insights into how traders may optimise their strategies to potentially reduce risk and maximise their trading opportunities. What Is Position Sizing in Trading? Position sizing, or trade sizing, is a fundamental concept in trading that determines how much capital is allocated to a specific trade. This process isn't about maximising profits; it's crucial for managing risk. The right position size may minimise the potential loss on each trade relative to the overall capital, potentially ensuring that a single loss doesn't significantly impact the trader's account. In essence, determining trade sizes is a balancing act. It involves calculating the appropriate amount to invest based on various factors like account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. This calculated approach contrasts sharply with random or emotional decision-making, where the size of a trade might be based on a hunch or a desire to recoup losses. The Role of Leverage in Position Sizing Leverage in trading is comparable to a double-edged sword. It allows traders to control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital, effectively amplifying both potential returns and risks. When a trader employs leverage, they borrow capital, increasing their trading power. However, when combined with strict position sizing and stop-loss placement, leverage serves a different role. It doesn't necessarily increase the risk but rather reallocates capital more efficiently. For example, if someone uses leverage to open a position, they're required to commit only a fraction of the trade's total value, known as the margin. If they’re risking 1% of their account balance on a single trade and never move their stop loss, the trader’s loss is limited to this 1%, regardless of how much leverage they use. The only difference is that lower leverage uses more capital for margin and vice versa. Key Factors Influencing Position Size When it comes to determining the right position size in trading, two key factors come into play, both crucial for tailoring risk management to individual needs: - Risk Tolerance: Every person has a unique comfort level with risk. Some might be inclined to use a larger proportion of their account balance on a given trade, accepting higher potential losses for greater potential gains, while others may prefer a more conservative stance, prioritising capital preservation. - Market Volatility: The level of volatility in the market significantly influences position sizing. In highly volatile markets, where price swings are more pronounced, reducing position size can be a prudent strategy to potentially limit exposure to sudden and severe market movements. Calculating Optimal Position Sizes Understanding how to calculate position sizes is a cornerstone of effective trading. The process involves several steps that balance risk management with the potential for returns. Here’s a detailed breakdown: - Determining Risk Tolerance Per Trade: First, decide what percentage of your trading capital you are willing to risk on a single trade. A common guideline is the 1% rule, meaning if you have $10,000, you will lose no more than $100 per trade. - Setting a Stop-Loss Order: This is a predetermined point where a losing trade will be closed to prevent further losses. The stop-loss is set based on market analysis and does not exceed the risk tolerance. - Calculating the Risk per Share/Unit: Subtract the stop-loss level from the entry price. For example, $50 (entry price) in the stock market - $45 (stop-loss) equals a $5 risk per share. - Determining Position Size: Divide the dollar amount you’re willing to risk by the risk per share/unit. Using the $100 risk on a $10,000 account, divide this by the $5 risk per share: $100/$5 = 20 shares. Thus, you should buy 20 shares to stay within your 1% limit. As a result, if your stop-loss is triggered, you’d only lose 1% of your total capital. Position Sizing Strategies In trading, there are two commonly used position-sizing strategies: - Fixed Percentage Model: This strategy involves risking a fixed percentage of the total trading capital on each trade. For example, one might consistently risk 2% of their capital per trade. This method automatically adjusts the dollar amount at risk based on the current account size, potentially ensuring that losses are proportionate to the account's value. - Dollar Amount Risk Model: Here, traders potentially lose a set dollar amount on every trade, regardless of the account size. For instance, a trader may decide to risk $500 on each trade. This model is simpler and easier to manage, especially for traders with less experience, but doesn't adjust for changes in the total account value, which could be a drawback as the account grows or shrinks. The Impact of Position Sizing on Trading Performance Optimal position sizing is risk-reducing and plays a critical role in a trader's overall performance. By allocating the right amount of capital to each trade, they potentially can manage potential losses more effectively, preserving their trading capital over the long term. This approach is believed to help traders be sure that a series of losing trades does not significantly deplete the account, allowing them to remain in the market. Moreover, optimal position sizing may contribute to emotional stability. Traders are less likely to experience extreme stress or make impulsive decisions when they know their risk is controlled and losses are within acceptable limits. This psychological benefit cannot be overstated, as a calm and focused mindset is essential for making rational trading decisions. The Bottom Line In essence, mastering position sizing is key to balancing potential gains with prudent risk management. Remember, optimal position sizing is about protecting your capital while maximising opportunities and is a valuable tool in long-term, sustainable trading. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1