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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Short trade 4Hr TF overview 🔻 Trade Journal Entry – Sell-side Trade 📍 Pair: EURUSD 📅 Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2025 (You wrote June 15th — adjusted to match your current date sequence) 🕒 Time: 5:00 AM (London Session AM) ⏱ Time Frame: 4 Hour 📉 Direction: Sell-side 📊 Trade Breakdown: Metric Value Entry Price 1.16072 Profit Level 1.14888 (−1.02%) Stop Loss 1.16244 (+0.15%) Risk-Reward Ratio 6.88 1 🧠 Context / Trade Notes: 4HR Premium Entry from Bearish OB: Trade executed at the upper end of the internal range, where price tapped into a high-probability bearish order block. London AM Stop-Hunt: Price swept a prior London session high before rejecting, indicative of engineered liquidity and smart money distribution. Break of Structure & Momentum Confirmation: Following the sweep, price broke internal structure to the downside, confirming bearish intent.
Short
by davidjulien369
EURUSD – Breakout Confirmed, Now Watching for Retest or 4hr ClosEURUSD has officially broken above the key 1.16020 resistance level on the 4hr chart, but price action has since gone stagnant. No strong bullish momentum has followed the break so far — a sign we may be due for a deeper pullback. I remain bullish overall, but I'm watching for two potential scenarios: ✅ Safe Buy: Clean 4hr bullish close above 1.16020 🎯 HRHR Buy: Pullback to the former level of interest at 1.14149 if structure holds Until one of those triggers, I’ll be patient. Let the setup come to you. Overall target remains the 1.18791 zone before reassessing.
Long
by Thetraderscollective
3
EURUSD Technical Outlook Bearish TrendEURUSD Technical Outlook – 4H Timeframe EURUSD has been pushing higher over the past few sessions, reaching a key liquidity zone. On the 4-hour chart, we’ve observed a clean sweep of previous highs, indicating a potential liquidity grab. From this zone, there's a high probability of a downside move, especially if the price fails to sustain above this level. Any bounce from this zone that lacks momentum may signal bullish exhaustion, opening the door for sellers to step in. Resistance zone 1.16500 Support zone 1.14500 You may find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis Thanks.
Short
by MrMartin_11
Can it Reach New Highs as USD Weakens?EUR/USD: Euro's Resilience Holds Strong – Can it Reach New Highs as USD Weakens? 🌍 Macro Landscape: EUR/USD Rides Risk-On Sentiment and Fed Cut Hopes The Euro (EUR) is showing significant strength, maintaining its position near a three-year high against the US Dollar (USD). This resilience is largely fueled by a moderately positive risk appetite in the market. Simultaneously, the US Dollar is facing considerable downward pressure. This weakness stems from recent weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States and increasing market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement interest rate cuts. If US economic indicators continue to soften, it could solidify the case for earlier Fed rate cuts, further undermining the USD and potentially boosting EUR/USD. 🏦 Central Bank Policy: Diverging Paths for ECB and Fed Federal Reserve (Fed): The market is increasingly pricing in the likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts. Weaker US data strengthens this narrative, as the Fed might be compelled to ease monetary policy to support economic growth. This dovish outlook for the Fed is a key driver of USD weakness. European Central Bank (ECB): While the provided information focuses on the EUR's strength due to broader market sentiment and USD weakness, the ECB's more measured approach to monetary policy compared to the Fed's potential easing can create a favorable interest rate differential for the Euro, attracting capital flows. This divergence in central bank policy expectations—with the Fed leaning towards cuts and the ECB maintaining a more cautious stance—creates a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. 🌐 Capital Flows: Money Favors Euro Amidst USD Softness Global capital flow models suggest that funds are increasingly moving towards assets perceived as offering better relative value or stability. As US yields become less attractive due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, capital may flow out of USD-denominated assets. This outflow from the USD naturally benefits currencies like the Euro, especially given its current positive momentum driven by a moderate risk-on environment. The re-pricing of Fed policy risk directly influences these capital movements, contributing to the upward trajectory of EUR/USD. 📊 Technical Structure (H4 Chart Analysis): EUR/USD Eyes Key Resistance Levels Based on the provided EUR/USD H4 chart: Uptrend intact: The pair continues to exhibit a positive trend, characterized by higher lows and higher highs within an ascending channel. Key Resistance Levels: Initial Resistance: 1.16330. This level aligns with recent highs and the top of the minor channel. A break above this suggests further bullish momentum. Major Resistance Zone: 1.17031. This is indicated as a significant resistance area, potentially a long-term target or a reversal point. A break here would confirm strong bullish conviction. Key Support Levels: Immediate Support: 1.15470. This level has acted as a support point, aligning with the EMA 200 and a Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential bounce area. Strong Support Zone: 1.15249. This zone represents a robust demand area, aligning with previous price action and serving as a crucial level for bulls to defend. Moving Averages (EMA 13-34-89-200): The price is trading above the short-term and long-term EMAs, suggesting strong bullish momentum. The EMAs are fanning out and showing a bullish alignment, reinforcing the uptrend. Projected Price Action: The chart suggests that the price might retrace towards the 1.15470 or 1.15249 support zones before resuming its upward trajectory towards the 1.16330 and potentially 1.17031 resistance levels. 🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations: Scenario 1 – BUY the Dip: Entry: Look for bullish confirmation around 1.15470 - 1.15249. Stop-Loss: Below 1.15100 (or a level below the 1.15249 support for risk management). Take-Profit: TP1: 1.15600 TP2: 1.15800 TP3: 1.16000 TP4: 1.16200 TP5: 1.16330 (Targeting the immediate resistance) TP6: 1.16500 TP7: 1.16800 TP8: 1.17031 (Targeting the major resistance) Scenario 2 – SELL the Rally (Counter-trend/Reversal): Entry: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.16330 - 1.16400 or higher near 1.17031. Stop-Loss: Above 1.16500 (or above 1.17100 if selling at higher resistance). Take-Profit: TP1: 1.16200 TP2: 1.16000 TP3: 1.15800 TP4: 1.15600 TP5: 1.15470 (Targeting the immediate support) TP6: 1.15249 (Targeting the strong support zone) ⚠️ Key Events to Watch: Upcoming US Economic Data: Any further weak data could solidify Fed rate cut expectations and weigh on the USD. ECB Official Statements: Comments from ECB members on inflation or monetary policy could impact EUR's strength. Global Risk Sentiment: A continued moderate risk-on environment will generally support the EUR against the USD. Trade smart and stay informed! Wishing everyone a successful trading day!
Long
by MMFlowTrading
1
EUR/USD Nears 1.1620 Before Powell’s TestimonyEUR/USD edged up to 1.1615 in early European trading on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment after Israel and Iran signaled an end to their air conflict. The truce, backed by pressure from President Trump, increased appetite for risk assets, favoring the euro over the dollar. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated on Tuesday that monetary policy will remain data-driven. However, comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid hinted at caution due to tariff-driven inflation. While markets expect a rate cut in September, July odds have edged slightly higher. Resistance is at 1.1630, while support is at 1.1530.
by ChartMage
DeGRAM | EURUSD reached the supply area📊 Technical Analysis ● Price formed an intraday rising wedge right inside the 1.1615-1.1635 supply band; the wedge has broken lower and the last two candles closed back under the long-term trendline retest. ● Bearish follow-through is favoured while price stays below 1.1604; first magnet is the confluence of former breakout base and inner channel support at 1.1569, with 1.1547 (mid-June pivot) the next objective. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Fresh Euro-area PMIs dipped below consensus while U.S. consumer-confidence beat, widening the short-rate gap and reviving USD bids. ✨ Summary Sell rallies ≤1.1600; targets 1.1569 → 1.1547. Bias invalid if 30-min candle closes above 1.1635. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support
Long
by DeGRAM
1
Lingrid | EURUSD Short-Term Correction. Counter Trend SetupThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . FX:EURUSD completed a full impulse move from the bottom, touching the upper resistance line while showing clear bearish divergence at recent highs. Price is now hovering near 1.16450, with early signs of weakness below the ascending blue trendline. A breakdown from this zone could confirm a reversal toward the 1.15585 support and potentially deeper if momentum builds. 📉 Key Levels Sell zone: 1.1630 – 1.1650 Sell trigger: break below 1.1600 Target: 1.15525 Buy trigger: breakout and hold above 1.1650 ⚠️ Risks Divergence may take time to fully play out Reclaiming 1.1650 would negate bearish setup Consolidation near highs may trap early sellers If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
8
EURUSD Approaching Liquidity Shelf — Watch for Reaction at 1.164EURUSD remains firmly bullish on all major timeframes, respecting the internal structure of an ascending channel. • Daily: Price continues to respect both the red trendline and broader purple bullish channel. Buyers are defending the mid-line and pushing toward the upper boundary. • 4H: Clear higher highs and higher lows. Price recently revisited and bounced off a 4H demand zone (1.14750–1.15000), and is now testing the liquidity zone at 1.16400. • 1H: Microstructure shows consolidation and possible absorption of liquidity just beneath the 1.16415 high. A clean break and retest of this level may confirm continuation. Key Levels: • Resistance: 1.16415 (previous high and liquidity trap) • Support: 1.14900 (4H demand zone) • Daily trendline holding as dynamic support Trade Plan: • Longs: Await a break and retest of 1.16415 or a retracement to 1.15600 for a more discounted entry. • Shorts: Not favored unless a strong bearish engulfing forms below 1.1600 with structure shift on the 1H.
Long
by AutoMarkets
EUR/USD 15 MINUTE CHART PATTERN Thanks for sharing your EUR/USD trade setup. Here's a quick breakdown and risk-reward assessment for your 15-minute BUY entry strategy: --- 🟢 Trade Setup (Long) Pair: EUR/USD Entry: 1.16025 Stop Loss: 1.15780 Targets: 🎯 Target 1: 1.16361 🎯 Target 2: 1.16700 🎯 Target 3: 1.17090 --- 🔍 Risk/Reward Ratios Let’s calculate approximate Risk-to-Reward (R:R) for each target: 🔻 Risk: 1.16025 - 1.15780 = 24.5 pips Reward to Target 1: 1.16361 - 1.16025 = 33.6 pips ✅ R:R ≈ 1.37 Reward to Target 2: 1.16700 - 1.16025 = 67.5 pips ✅ R:R ≈ 2.75 Reward to Target 3: 1.17090 - 1.16025 = 106.5 pips ✅ R:R ≈ 4.35 --- ⚠ Key Notes: Your stop loss is tight (24.5 pips), which is good for managing risk, but watch for minor price noise or wicks around support. Best suited if price has broken out of consolidation or is in a strong uptrend on M15/M30. Monitor news events (e.g., USD data, ECB statements) that can spike volatility. Consider scaling out at each target to lock in profits and reduce exposure.
Long
by Mrprofe21
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the 1st 50% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 1.1631 1st Support: 1.1552 1st Resistance: 1.1677 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets