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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Forms Triangle Just Below 17-Year Long-Term TrendlineAfter a strong rally from around 1.03 to the 1.10s, EURUSD traders now appear undecided. The white line shown is the 17-year-long trendline, which is currently acting as major resistance. However, this is not a typical short-term resistance level, it's more appropriate to focus on weekly and monthly closes around this area. Still, its presence alone is enough to give Euro bulls something to think about. For more context about long-term outlook, please check our earlier post below: In the short term, the chart has taken the shape of a descending triangle. If the TVC:DXY bounces, EURUSD may face some downward pressure. 1.0880 seems to be the support to follow for direction. Although descending triangles are typically bearish patterns, this one still has a chance to break to the upside due to supportive fundamentals. In either case, the medium- to long-term outlook for EURUSD is turning increasingly bullish.
by ftdsystem
EUR/USD SHORT IDEA – 15-Min TimeframeThis chart presents a bearish setup on EUR/USD after price tapped into a strong supply zone, aligning with previous liquidity grab and resistance levels. The trade idea anticipates a reversal from the top and a potential short entry for intraday traders. 🔸 Key Zones: 🔴 Supply Zone: Around 1.10880–1.10930, marked by the red zone. Price recently tested this area with a sharp wick rejection, indicating strong seller presence. 🔵 Resistance Line: Horizontal blue line just below the supply zone, showing a previous resistance level which aligns with the recent lower high structure. 🟡 Previous Liquidity Grab: The yellow rectangle marks a key area where price previously broke structure, collected liquidity, and reversed. It now acts as a support-turned-resistance zone. 🔻 Trade Setup: Entry: Near rejection from the supply zone (current level around 1.1056). Stop Loss: Above the recent wick highs inside the supply zone. Take Profit: Targeting previous structure lows around 1.0941, aligned with the green arrow projection. 📈 Market Structure: Price broke out impulsively and formed a rising wedge (blue trendline). Bearish divergence possible as momentum slowed down near the top. Expecting price to break the wedge downside, retest support (potential pullback), and then continue lower as per green projection. 📉 Risk-Reward Ratio: High R:R setup with favorable downside potential if confirmed by volume/price action. ⚠️ Caution: Wait for bearish confirmation such as: Bearish engulfing candle. Break and close below wedge support. Retest of broken structure before entering full position. ✍️ Published by @ansarionline – April 9, 2025
Short
by ansarionline
Markets in Flux: EUR/USD Chart Hints at BreakoutGood morning Traders, Trust you are well. Below is my analysis of the current price action on EURUSD amidst the trade war. Overview EUR/USD is trading within a descending channel, showing signs of a potential bullish breakout. Price recently rejected the 1.08115 support zone with a strong wick, suggesting buyer interest. Globally, trade tensions are escalating—President Trump reintroduced 34% tariffs on China, with China responding in kind. The EU is also planning a 25% tariff on U.S. goods, sparking further risk-off sentiment. US hinting at further extending tariff on China to 50%. Idea This analysis suggests a buy-the-dip opportunity near 1.08115, with a likely breakout toward 1.10127 and beyond. Safe havens like CHF and JPY are gaining, reflecting rising risk aversion. Despite the short-term USD strength, prolonged trade wars could eventually weigh on the dollar. Conclusion EUR/USD is gearing up for a move. I will watch for a dip to support before a bullish push around 1.08115 and 1.07689. With trade wars heating up and risk sentiment dipping, commodities and currencies are about to get spicy. Do trade with caution. Cheers and Happy trading!
Short
by Samuel124
WHY EURUSD IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has officially broken out of a clean bullish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, confirming the bullish momentum that has been building over the past week. After a sharp rally, price consolidated within a contracting range, forming the classic pennant shape. With the breakout now confirmed and price currently trading at 1.106, I’m anticipating a continuation toward the projected target at 1.143 — offering a potential 300+ pip gain in this move. Technically, the breakout is supported by increasing bullish volume, strong impulse candles, and a clear structure of higher lows. The pennant served as a healthy consolidation zone, allowing buyers to regain control before the next leg up. Price has respected support at 1.096 and is now printing bullish continuation signals with momentum indicators pointing north. Fundamentally, today’s market sentiment favors EUR strength, especially as the US dollar comes under pressure due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. Inflation data in the eurozone remains sticky, supporting the ECB’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Meanwhile, weaker US labor market data and softening retail figures are weighing on dollar demand. With both technicals and fundamentals aligned, I’m expecting further upside on EURUSD. The structure is solid, the breakout is clean, and sentiment supports continued bullish flow. I’ll be holding my bias firmly bullish unless the price falls back below 1.096, which would invalidate the setup. For now, all eyes are on 1.120 short term and eventually 1.143 as the full pennant projection completes.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
Is China cooking USA trough selling GOV.BONDS and the Dollar? Markets Roiled by New U.S. Tariffs: 28-Hour Recap In the past 28 hours, global financial markets have reacted sharply to the U.S. implementation of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, targeting over 60 countries with adjusted rates ranging from 11% to 50%. The move, aimed at correcting persistent U.S. goods trade deficits, has rattled investor confidence and sparked fears of a global trade slowdown. Key Highlights: U.S. Stocks Dip: The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while the Dow Jones lost over 600 points amid fears of retaliatory tariffs and rising import costs for U.S. firms. Tech Hit Hard: Tech giants with supply chains linked to Asia, particularly China (now subject to a 34% tariff), saw sharp losses. Apple and NVIDIA shares dropped 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Dollar Mixed: The U.S. dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies but weakened against safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both countries also affected (24% and 31% tariffs, respectively). Commodities Volatile: Oil prices slid 2.4% on concerns over reduced global demand, while gold surged past $2,130 as investors sought shelter from market instability. EU Response: The European Union, facing a 20% U.S. tariff, announced it is "evaluating proportional measures." European stock indexes fell by an average of 1.5%. Asian Markets Plunge: Major indexes like the Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively, reflecting panic over trade disruptions. Euro behaving diferently than its usual. It has many reason behind of it but I try to focus to one biggger reason: Why euro is getting stronger once we see Indexes GER30, SP500 etc getting sold ? China is dumping US Treasuries and selling the USD proceeds daily? How we can verify this? - We have a few tools altough its not realtime data but can confirm our suspition 1. Track China’s Holdings of US Treasuries Source: U.S. Treasury’s Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities report Link: home.treasury.gov → Data → Reports → TIC Data Frequency: Monthly Note: A significant drop month-over-month can indicate "dumping." 2. Monitor U.S. Dollar Flows and FX Activity Sources: SWIFT reports (used in interbank transfers) IMF’s COFER database (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) Bloomberg Terminal or Reuters (for real-time data) 3. Watch USD/CNY Exchange Rate Movements If China is selling off USD, this might put downward pressure on the dollar. Use platforms like TradingView, Investing.com, or Bloomberg to monitor this daily. 4. Observe China’s Balance of Payments and Reserves Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Significant reductions in foreign exchange reserves or changes in asset composition may suggest reallocation from USD assets. 5. Check Daily Treasury Auctions and Secondary Market Data Platforms like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or MarketWatch can provide insight into demand for Treasuries. Large sales or weak demand can sometimes reflect foreign selling.
by ElGatoTrade
1
EURUSD BUY TRADE PLAN🧭 EURUSD TRADE PLAN 📅 Date: April 4, 2025 🔒 Format: Institutional Swing Precision 🔖 Plan Type: Swing Buy Setup 📈 Bias & Trade Type: Bullish Reversal Continuation 🔰 Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) 📌 Status: Monitoring for Rejection in Buy Zone 📍 ENTRY ZONES: 🟩 Primary Buy Zone: 1.0940 – 1.0965 – D1 demand zone retest – 61.8% Fibo of impulse leg – H1/H4 support shelf – Breaker block retest from previous expansion leg 🟧 Secondary Buy Zone (Deeper Tap): 1.0910 – 1.0930 – Full sweep of liquidity – Below unfilled imbalance – Closer to D1/H4 OB base ❗ Stop Loss: 1.0875 – Below structure and OB base 🎯 Take Profits: • TP1: 1.1030 (Imbalance fill + H1 resistance) • TP2: 1.1075 (D1 wick fill) • TP3: 1.1130 (Break of H4 structure high) • TP4: 1.1175 (W1 FVG reaction point) 📏 Risk:Reward: ~1:3.2 to TP3, ~1:4.5 to TP4 🧠 Management Strategy: – Entry only on bullish engulfing or reversal wick on LTF (M15–H1) – SL to breakeven after TP1 – Trail above each higher low for continuation – Exit fully if bearish engulfing on D1 near TP3/TP4 ⚠️ Confirmation Criteria: – H1 bullish engulfing or strong LTF wick – Price close above 1.0980 after tapping entry zone – MACD crossover on M30 or H1 ⏳ Validity: Next 24–48 hours 🌐 Fundamentals: – USD showing softness post-volatility spike – EUR resilient with no D1 CHoCH – US macro data pending, but technicals favored above structure 📋 Final Summary: Price has retraced sharply after last impulse leg and now probing into D1/H4 demand zones. We're watching for confirmation near the zone at 1.0910–1.0930 which could offer high-RR entry. The trade is only valid with confirmation. No blind buys.
Long
by jibkhan111
my idea about gold . during the FOMC news today april 9 2025# ✨ XAU/USD FOMC STRATEGY PLAN (April 9, 2025) ## 🔬 Fundamental Context **Event:** FOMC Minutes **Time:** 1:00 PM ET / 10:30 PM IST / 8:00 PM EAT **Market Mood:** - US-China trade tension - Inflation still a concern - Fed likely to sound cautious or hawkish **Implication:** - If hawkish: USD ↗️ = Gold ↓ (but potential fakeout first) - If dovish: USD ↓ = Gold ↗️ (bullish breakout likely) --- ## 🌐 Key Levels to Watch ### ▼ Support Zone: - **2270 - 2255** - Previous demand zone - Potential stop hunt area ### ▲ Resistance Zone: - **2310 - 2325** - Previous rejection - Breakout zone into momentum --- ## ⚖️ Trade Scenarios ### ✅ Scenario A: Hawkish Fed (USD Bullish, Gold Dips) - Wait for gold to dump into **2270 - 2265** - Watch for **M15 bullish engulfing or rejection wick** - Enter BUY: - **SL:** 2257 - **TP1:** 2298 - **TP2:** 2315 ### ✨ Scenario B: Dovish Fed (USD Weak, Gold Pumps) - Wait for **clean breakout above 2310** - Look for **pullback + bullish structure on M5/M15** - Enter BUY: - **SL:** Below pullback low (~2302) - **TP1:** 2325 - **TP2:** 2340 ### ⚠️ Scenario C: Whipsaw / Mixed News - No rush - Let the market choose direction first (wait 15–30 min) - Watch for clean structure shift or fakeouts --- ## 📊 Risk & Management - Use **tight SL** and **defined TP zones** - Risk only **0.5% – 1% per position** - Adjust position size based on SL distance - **Avoid revenge trades** if whipsaw hits --- ## 🌟 Mindset > "Wait like a monk. Strike like a sniper. Let the market come to you." Stay present. Be patient. Gold rewards clarity, not chaos.
by joackimboniface
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Resumes IncreaseMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Resumes Increase EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0950 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a decent upward move from the 1.0880 zone against the US Dollar. - There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0955 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0775 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.0950 resistance to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the last analysis. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1000. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1150 resistance. A high was formed near 1.1146 before the pair corrected gains. It dipped below 1.1000 and tested 1.0880. The pair is again rising from the 1.0880 zone. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0955. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.0880 low. Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.1045 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.0880 low. The first major resistance is near the 1.1080 level. An upside break above the 1.1080 level might send the pair toward the 1.1145 resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.1165 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1200 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the 1.0955 level. The next major support is the 1.0880 level. A downside break below the 1.0880 support could send the pair toward the 1.0830 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.0775. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Eur/Usd sell setup update!!Good day traders, we back again we another beauty of a setup well Atleast I like to believe that😂. Eur/Usd a set was posted here by me on TradingView before market opened on Monday and if you go look at that set up today’s move was seen before hand and now that price went higher, we can now expect to see price move lower for the rest of the week to our liquidity resting below(equal lows). On the 4 hour price just broke structure higher solidifying a low that we want to see get broken during today trading day. As soon as price breaks structure lower on the LTF’s than we have a alert to enter our shorts, good luck and have a wonderful day✌️ My name is Teboho Matla but you don’t know me yet…
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
1
Bullish momentum to extend?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a swing high resistance. Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
RSI bearish divergence seen on EURUSDFundamental Perspective: The euro steadied around $1.09 as markets awaited the EU's next move after the US rejected its zero-for-zero tariff proposal. The EU is now planning 25% counter-tariffs on the US goods, signaling a more confrontational stance. The escalating trade tension could create uncertainty over the EU's economic growth, as tariff retaliation could harm both EU exports to the US and potentially escalate into further trade restrictions. A weaker outlook for the EU economy could put the euro under pressure. Technical Perspective: EURUSD is testing the upper bound of the ascending channel and weekly fair value gap, with a bearish divergence seen on the RSI, indicating the potential for a reversal. If EURUSD reverses below the resistance zone at 1.1050, the price could plunge to the support at 1.08880, which resides near the previous day's low. Conversely, a decisive close above the weekly resistance zone could prompt a further rise toward the following resistance at 1.1200. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Short
by lixing_gan
1
EURUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price could fall toward our buy entry level at 1.0976, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 1.1076, an overlap resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.0879, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
EUR/USD Long Setup – Breakout Retest with Target Toward 1.21155Description: This EUR/USD idea is a long setup based on a clean breakout–retest structure on the 4H timeframe. Price broke out above a previous consolidation zone between ~1.083–1.093 and is now retesting that same zone, which is acting as support. The retest is showing signs of buyer interest, aligning with bullish continuation momentum. We’re seeing confluence from: Break and retest of horizontal support (former resistance) Continuation structure above the key demand zone Bullish trend in play with higher highs and higher lows Potential to target the next significant resistance around 1.21155 Trade Plan: Entry Zone: 1.092 Stop Loss: 1.088 Target: 1.21155 This setup offers a favorable risk-reward scenario while aligning with macro USD softness and euro strength on recent economic developments. I’ll be monitoring momentum and price action on the lower timeframes to manage the trade accordingly.
Long
by GreenZoneCapital