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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD RecoversMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Recovers EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0310 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a decent recovery wave from the 1.0210 zone against the US Dollar. - There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0340 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave after a major decline, as mentioned in the last analysis. The Euro cleared the 1.02700 resistance to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0310. The pair cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0467 swing high to the 1.0210 low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0340. Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chartis near the 1.0390 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0410 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0467 swing high to the 1.0210 low. An upside break above the 1.0410 level might send the pair toward the 1.0465 resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.0500 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0550 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the 1.0340 level. The next major support is the 1.0310 level. A downside break below the 1.0310 support could send the pair toward the 1.0270 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.0210. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD Analysis H1 Prediction for 05/02/2025📊 EURUSD Smart Money Concept Analysis 🔹 Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) indicate shifts in market sentiment. 🔹 Price is currently pushing upwards, approaching a key supply zone (1.04324 - 1.04576), which may act as resistance. 🔹 Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) below suggest liquidity voids that price may revisit. 📌 Bearish Scenario: 🔻 If price rejects from the 1.04324 - 1.04576 supply zone, it could target lower demand areas: ✅ 1.03437 - 1.03522 (First demand zone & FVG fill) ✅ 1.02738 - 1.02950 (Deeper demand zone) ✅ 1.01650 - 1.02114 (Major liquidity zone for long-term buys) 📈 Bullish Scenario: 🔹 If price breaks and holds above 1.04576, further bullish momentum could push it towards 1.05000+ levels. 🚀 Trade Plan: 🔸 Short Setup: Look for bearish confirmations at 1.04324 - 1.04576. 🔸 Long Setup: Watch for buy opportunities at demand zones 1.03437 - 1.03522 or 1.02738 - 1.02950 if price retraces. #EURUSD #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #TechnicalAnalysis #LiquidityZones #FairValueGap #BreakOfStructure
by FXFOREVER_87
EURUSD: Next Target 1.0427Looking at the implications of Trump’s handling of the Mexico and Canada tariff threat, sentiment in the eurozone has improved on the back of expectations that a deal can be struck and protectionism averted. Still, extra caution is warranted in this sense. If part of Trump’s motive to delay tariffs on US neighbours was domestic backlash for potential immediate economic pain for US consumers, that is not necessarily true for EU tariffs. On those, Trump can afford to play the longer game, and perhaps keep them in place for a prolonged period, making the EU feel some “pain” before striking a deal. Crucially, the motives for tariffs on the EU would not be border-related, where a deal is arguably quicker to achieve as we saw yesterday, but on trade imbalances, which often require longer negotiations. With all this in mind, we are somewhat sceptical that the euro is bound for a major rally. Trump has already hinted the EU is next on the tariff list, and markets may probably find better value in buying the dips in currencies that have passed the protectionism peak against the euro, which is still to face the worst of it. We would expect a US-China trade deal to take EUR/USD close to 1.0400/1.0450, but the rally may lose steam around those levels.
Long
by AccuTrade2000
1
Optimal parameters of Sell Limit trade on EUR/USD OANDA:EURUSD Entry level: 1.0400-1.0410 Price above 1.0390 will activate Buy Stop (17%), causing an upward impulse. Sell Limit at 1.0400-1.0410 will allow to enter at a favorable price before the reversal. Take Profit (TP) TP level: 1.0360 The price is likely to return below 1.0390 in case of a false breakout. 1.0360 is the nearest liquidity accumulation and a possible downside target. Stop Loss (SL) SL level: 1.0430 If the price consolidates above 1.0420, a move to 1.0450 is likely. 1.0430 is a safe exit point to minimize losses. Mathematical advantage of the trade Risk/Return Ratio (RRR) ≈ 1:2 Risk: 30 pips (1.0400 → 1.0430) Profit: 40 pips (1.0400 → 1.0360) The trade has a high probability of success (≈ 65%) and a positive mathematical expectation.
Short
by Belousov_Nik
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance level of 1.03609.Colleagues, the situation on the markets is quite complicated. Now we are witnessing a period of complex combined corrections and lengthening waves. But it is also possible to analyze it. At the moment I expect the big gap to close and reach the resistance level of 1.03609. We all know that gaps usually close. This will be a correction in wave “2”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
9
EUR/USD: Between Rebound Hopes and Tariff TensionsThe EUR/USD pair experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% and breaking a six-day losing streak, although it failed to reclaim the 1.0400 threshold. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains fragile as the euro is heavily influenced by broader market flows and the anticipation of upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair found initial support at the weekly low of 1.0209 on February 3, with a potential decline towards the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 if this support fails. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the psychological parity threshold. On the upside, resistance is identified at 1.0532, the year’s high recorded on January 27. The pair’s recovery was driven by a weakening US dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 108.00 support, influenced by market reactions to President Donald Trump’s plans to delay a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods while maintaining a 10% levy on Chinese imports. Although the US dollar has weakened, the tariff issue is expected to strengthen its position in the long term, potentially supporting a bullish outlook for the currency. Central banks also play a crucial role: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a cautious approach amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and low unemployment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, hinting at possible further easing while expressing optimism about controlling eurozone inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts. Trade tensions, particularly those linked to US tariffs, could further complicate the euro’s outlook. Prolonged tariffs could fuel inflation in the United States, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair toward parity. Looking ahead, the euro faces challenges from the resilience of the US dollar, divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, and structural issues within the eurozone, such as Germany’s economic slowdown. While short-term rallies are possible, the overall outlook for the euro remains uncertain, with persistent risks related to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies likely to shape the pair’s trajectory.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Daily / H4 CLS, Order Block Midpoints, Model 1 Daily / H4 CLS, OB Mid, Model 1. Im open to react to the H4 CLS and the Daily CLS once the setups occur at the moment. It's not 100% clear setup. So, we need to wait a bit for the manipulations. Don't hesitate to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? is the smart money of all markets. This company aggregates capital from the biggest investment banks and central banks. Its daily volume is over 6.5 trillion. CLS operates in specific modes and times. By understanding their models, we get an unfair advantage against others with fantastic precision for your entries and mechanical definition of the targets. Follow me and pay attention to my model 1 and 2. It's the key to the markets. None of the strategies of the world has a 100%-win rate and I'm just a human. We make big profits, but sometimes we can miss something or make mistakes. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps you to become a better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave Hunter ⚔
by David_Perk
4
EURUSD Trading JournalEURUSD Trading Journal Feb 5 Prices wild action on Sunday was rebalanced on Monday and yesterdays delivery seeking the inefficiencies, and equal highs. I really liked how I suggested that price would seek the 50 level yesterday, great delivery and note how reactive price was on the 50 during NY springing off it to launch, indication that seasonal shift here with price coming back up to the 50 on HTF and could be tipping its hand that we are bullish? Need more info before I can commit to that notion. Price is in a discount on the W, however the daily range and previous range is in a premium. There is a key buys stops that if they are hit and price declines we could see price seek lower prices to balance FVG and the 50 level and that will be telling what reaction we get at that level-1.03223 London could sideways in a consolidation pattern until the fireworks in NY. That said its non farm payroll this week starting today, next couple days to watch and not be foolish. If my model does line up with key liquidity and a clear target perhaps I will trade.
by LeanLena
EURUSD H1 | Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.03789, which aligns with a key resistance zone and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup. Our take profit is set at 1.03435, near a previous support zone, where price may find buying interest. The stop loss is placed at 1.04040, above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, providing room for price fluctuations while ensuring the bearish setup remains valid. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
EURUSD 5 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PPI - US ADP/PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautious but are gradually finding footing after recent bouts of volatility linked to aggressive trade measures and policy uncertainty. The sentiment can best be described as a mix of risk aversion amid global trade tensions and a tentative willingness to engage as economic data remains broadly resilient. The U.S. dollar has experienced modest strength but remains under pressure due to the broader uncertainty in trade dynamics and the potential for escalating tariffs, particularly from ongoing actions against major trade partners even with pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The target is Europe. Federal Reserve Outlook: While the recent policy stance has been one of a pause, the Fed is expected to continue monitoring inflationary trends closely. Any future adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be data-dependent, with the current sentiment suggesting that policymakers will remain cautious amid trade-induced uncertainties. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the Bearish iBOS, price confirmed the Swing pullback phase. 🔹We reached the Swing extreme demand which triggered a V-shape reaction indicating the bullish continuation. 🔹Price is currently targeting the liquidity (CHoCH) at 1.04342 (15m Swing High). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish for the Bullish 4H Swing Continuation after reaching the Swing Extreme Demand. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, price pulled back with series of Bullish INT structures reaching the 4H Supply and the 15m Swing extreme. 🔹While the 4H Swing Structure is Bullish, 15m Swing still Bearish. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish to sweep the 4H liquidity (Forming a Bullish
by Amr-Sadek