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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Will the 1D MA50 hold?The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the April 21 2025 High. The price is right now on a strong pull-back and is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 12. As long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50, it will be a buy signal, targeting 1.19250 (a standard +3.20% rise). If the candle closes below the 1D MA50, the buy will be invalidated and we will switch to a sell, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 1.14100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
Trading Divergences With Wedges in ForexTrading Divergences With Wedges in Forex Divergence trading in forex is a powerful technique for analysing market movements, as is observing rising and falling wedges. This article explores the synergy between divergence trading and wedges in forex, offering insights into how traders can leverage these signals. From the basics to advanced strategies, learn how you could utilise this approach effectively, potentially enhancing your trading skills in the dynamic forex market. Understanding Divergences In forex trading, the concept of divergence plays a pivotal role in identifying potential market shifts. A divergence in forex, meaning a situation where price action and a technical indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) move in opposite directions, often signals a weakening trend. This discrepancy is a valuable tool in divergence chart trading, as it may indicate a possible reversal or continuation of the current trend. There are two primary types of divergence in forex—regular and hidden. Regular divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs or lower lows while the indicator does the opposite, often signalling a reversal. Hidden divergence, on the other hand, happens when the price makes lower highs or higher lows while the indicator shows higher highs or lower lows, typically suggesting a continuation of the current trend. Trading Rising and Falling Wedges Rising and falling wedges are significant patterns in forex trading, often signalling potential trend reversals. A rising wedge, formed by converging upward trendlines, often indicates a bearish reversal if it appears in an uptrend. Conversely, a falling wedge, characterised by converging downward trendlines, typically reflects a bullish reversal if it occurs in a downtrend. Traders often look for a breakout from these patterns as a signal to enter trades. For rising wedges, a downward breakout can be seen as a sell signal, while an upward breakout from a falling wedge is often interpreted as a buy signal. When combined with divergences, this chart pattern can add confirmation and precede strong movements. Best Practices for Trading Divergences Trading divergence patterns in forex requires a keen eye for detail and a disciplined, holistic approach. Here are key practices for effective trading: - Comprehensive Analysis: Before trading on divergence and wedges, be sure to analyse overall market conditions. - Selecting the Right Indicator: Choose a forex divergence indicator that suits your trading style. Common choices include RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. - Confirmation Is Key: It’s best to watch for additional confirmation from price action or other technical tools before entering a trade. - Risk Management: Traders always set stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Divergence trading isn't foolproof; protecting your capital is crucial. - Patience in Entry and Exit: Be patient as the divergence develops and confirm with your chosen indicators before entering or exiting a trade. Strategy 1: RSI and Wedge Divergence Traders focus on regular divergence patterns when the RSI is above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern. The strategy hinges on identifying highs or lows within these RSI extremes. It's not crucial if the RSI remains consistently overbought or oversold, or if it fluctuates in and out of these zones. Entry - Traders may observe a regular divergence where both the price highs/lows and RSI readings are above 70 or below 30. - After the formation of a lower high (in an overbought zone) or a higher low (in an oversold zone) in the RSI, traders typically watch as the RSI crosses back below 70 or above 30. This is accompanied by a breakout from a rising or falling wedge, acting as a potential signal to enter. Stop Loss - Stop losses might be set just beyond the high or low of the wedge. Take Profit - Profit targets may be established at suitable support/resistance levels. - Another potential approach is to exit when the RSI crosses back into the opposite overbought/oversold territory. Strategy 2: MACD and Wedge Divergence Regarded as one of the best divergence trading strategies, MACD divergence focuses on the discrepancy between price action and the MACD histogram. The strategy is particularly potent when combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern in price. Entry - Traders typically observe for the MACD histogram to diverge from the price. This divergence manifests as the price reaching new highs or lows while the MACD histogram fails to do the same. - The strategy involves waiting for the MACD signal line to cross over the MACD line in the direction of the anticipated reversal. This crossover should coincide with a breakout from the rising or falling wedge. - After these conditions are met, traders may consider entering a trade in anticipation of a trend reversal. Stop Loss - Stop losses may be set beyond the high or low of the wedge, which may help traders manage risk by identifying a clear exit point if the anticipated reversal does not materialise. Take Profit - Profit targets might be established at nearby support or resistance levels, allowing traders to capitalise on the expected move while managing potential downside. Strategy 3: Stochastic and Wedge Divergence Stochastic divergence is a key technique for divergence day trading in forex, especially useful for identifying potential trend reversals. This strategy typically employs the Stochastic Oscillator with settings of 14, 3, 3. Entry - Traders may look for divergence scenarios where the Stochastic readings are above 80 or below 20, mirroring the RSI approach. - This divergence is observed in conjunction with price action, forming a rising or falling wedge. - Entry may be considered following a breakout from the wedge, which signals a potential shift in market direction. Stop Loss - Setting stop losses just beyond the high or low of the wedge might be an effective approach. Take Profit - Profit targets may be set at key support/resistance levels. The Bottom Line Divergence trading, coupled with the analysis of rising and falling wedges, offers a comprehensive approach to navigating the forex market. By integrating the discussed strategies with sound risk management and market analysis, traders may potentially enhance their ability to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Euro Drops Hard — Is a 100-Pips Slide Toward 1.1500 Next?Euro’s current situation doesn’t look great — we’re clearly seeing strong selling pressure across the board. Price has now reached the block zones near 1.1600, and I want to break down what this area means to me. The lower pivot of the 1.1600 zone was created after the 50% level of the previous bullish leg was consumed — which is typical in many bullish trends. Based on that, we expected a move toward 1.1800 to break the structure and continue the uptrend. However, the recent bullish move lacked strength, which became quite clear during the last upward leg. And now, after that weak rally, we’re witnessing a sharp and aggressive selloff. This reaction weakens the 1.1600 block in my eyes — and I’m now watching 1.1500 as the more probable target. It’s a major price level and also aligns with a bank-level midline zone. In my view, it’s still too early to buy. I’d want to see price range and confirm before looking for longs. That said, this area could be a good place to partially exit short positions and lock in some profits. 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion!!!
by Mehrasfx
Ursulization = Bureaucracy > Democracy (a.k.a. The Glasgow Kiss)🤝💥 Ursulization – Bureaucracy Replaces Democracy (a.k.a. The Glasgow Kiss) 🇺🇸🇪🇺 📍Background: The media spun it as a "15% tariff agreement"… But in reality, this wasn’t diplomacy — it was a disguised capitulation. And the stage? None other than Scotland, ancestral ground of Donald J. Trump. So when Ursula von der Leyen came seeking a gentle diplomatic handshake… What she received instead was the infamous Glasgow Kiss — sudden, sharp, and unmissable. 💥 What’s a Glasgow Kiss? A British slang term for a violent headbutt to the face — No grace. No warning. Just raw force. 💬 The Real Story: Ursula von der Leyen — unelected, unaccountable — signed off on $1.4 trillion in U.S.-bound capital flows: 💸 $750B to buy American energy 🛠 $600B in U.S. infrastructure, defense & industry All to sidestep 50% tariffs the Trump team had ready to roll. But here's the kicker: She wasn’t acting on behalf of European citizens. She was speaking for the bureaucracy, not the people. 🔥 Welcome to Ursulization: Where democracy is sidelined by unelected power. Where negotiations happen in silence. Where scandals like PfizerGate get buried while the euro breaks down. 📉 EUR/USD just lost key support at 1.14776 — The chart shows t he cost of surrender. 💉 PfizerGate Reminder: Ursula already faced heat for secretive vaccine contracts with Pfizer. Now, she’s handing over Europe’s industrial backbone — To Trump. In Scotland. With no public mandate. 📌 Conclusion: Trump didn’t compromise — he collided. Europe didn’t resist — it surrendered. This wasn’t diplomacy. It was a Glasgow Kiss — a collision between legitimacy and bureaucratic power. 👑 One elected by the people (Trump). One not elected at all (Woke agenda style Ursula). 💰 One walks away with trillions (Trump). The other, with silence (Ursula 'Von der Pfizinen never electenen''). One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. Till we can bring Democracy and Europe back. Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Short
by FX_Professor
EURUSD Set To Grow! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1557 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 1.1632 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD: FOMC, PCE, NFP, JOLTs - busy week guaranteedThe ECB meeting was one of the major events during the previous week, when it comes to macro data. As it was widely expected, the ECB left rates unchanged, amid uncertainties related to trade tariffs with the U.S.. The ECB maintains its previous macro outlook, viewing the Euro Zone economy as resilient but facing downside risks. President Lagarde highlighted global trade tensions, geopolitical instability and negative shifts in market sentiment as key risks to further growth. At the same time, Lagarde dismissed concerns about the stronger euro, reiterating that the ECB does not target the exchange rate directly. With the inflation level of 2% and deposit rate of 2%, the ECB is in the position to take a wait-and-see stance on further rate cuts, although some analysts are mentioning the possibility of another 25bps cut in September. Other macro data for the Euro Zone and Germany include the HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for July, which stood at 49,8 for the Euro Zone and 49,2 for Germany. Both indicators were standing in line with market expectations. The Ifo business Climate in Germany in July reached 88,6, in line with market forecast. The previous week was relatively weak when it comes to currently important macro data for the U.S. economy. Posted data include Existing Home Sales in June, which reached 3,93M and were a bit lower from forecasted 4,0M. The indicator dropped by 2,7% compared to the previous month. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for July reached 49,5 a bit lower from market forecast of 52,6. At the same time the S&P Global Services PMI flash for July beat market expectation with the level of 55,2. The durable Goods Orders in June dropped by -9,3% compared to the previous month, which was a bit lower from -10,8% expected by the market. The ECB meeting left its mark on the parity of eurusd currency pair during the previous week. The euro strengthened till the level of 1,1786, but eased as of the end of the week, closing it at 1,1742. The currency pair was testing the 1,17 support line on Friday's trading session. The RSI continues to move at levels above the 50 line, ending the week modestly below the level of 60. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential cross in the near term period. The week ahead is an important one from the perspective of macro data. A bunch of currently closely watched data for the U.S. will be posted, including PCE, NFP, JOLTs, Unemployment rate in July. In addition to data, the FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, July 30th, where the Fed will decide on interest rates. Current market expectation is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at this meeting. However, the final decision is with the Fed, in which case, any surprises might significantly move the currency pair toward one side. Also, in case of surprises with any of the above mentioned macro data the market reaction could bring higher volatility. Precaution in trading with eurusd in the week ahead is highly advisable. As per current charts, there is a high probability that the currency pair will move to the downside to test the 1,17 support level for one more time. Levels around the 1,1650 might also be shortly tested. In case that the market decides for a higher ground, there is some probability for the level of 1,18, as the next resistance level to be tested shortly. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: GDP Growth Rate for Q2 for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in Germany in July, Inflation rate in Germany and the Euro Zone preliminary for July, USD: JOLTs Job Openings in June, GDP Growth Rate for Q2, Pending Home Sales in June, the FOMC meeting and Fed interest rate decision will be held on Wednesday, July 30th, PCE Price Index for June will be posted on Thursday, July 31st, Non-farm Payrolls for July, Unemployment rate in July, ISM Manufacturing PMI in July, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for July.
by XBTFX
EUR/USD | Correction Near Key Demand – Watching for Rebound!By analyzing the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after the last analysis, the price started a correction and is currently trading around 1.17150. I expect that once it enters the 1.16780–1.17100 zone, we could see a rebound from this key demand area. If the price holds above this zone, the next bullish targets will be 1.17370 as the first target and 1.17730 as the second. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips FurtherMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Further EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.1600 support. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1800 resistance and declined against the US Dollar. - There is a key downward channel forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1800 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.1720 support against the US Dollar. The pair declined below the 1.1660 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1520 level. A low was formed at 1.1519 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The market is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1770 swing high to the 1.1519 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1575 level. There is also a key downward channel forming with resistance at 1.1575. The next major resistance is near the 1.1665 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average or the 50% Fib retracement level. The main resistance sits near the 1.1770 level. An upside break above the 1.1770 level might send the pair towards 1.1800. Any more gains might open the doors for a move towards 1.1850. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.1520. The next major support is near the 1.1465 level. A downside break below 1.1465 could send the pair towards 1.1350. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
EURUSD breakdown alert – Will the drop accelerate?Hello traders, let’s take a look at how EURUSD is performing today! Yesterday, EURUSD extended its downward slide after failing to sustain bullish momentum from the 1.1600 zone. The pair is now hovering around 1.1426. The recent decline is largely attributed to the strength of the US dollar, which continues to benefit from a series of upbeat economic data – including robust job reports, strong consumer spending, and improving sentiment. All of these came in above expectations, pushing the dollar higher. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious stance, with no clear signals of policy changes – leaving the euro under persistent pressure. From a technical standpoint, the short-term outlook suggests the beginning of a new bearish wave. Notably, price action is reacting to resistance from the nearby EMA 34 and EMA 89 levels. The break below the recent support zone has added fuel to the ongoing bearish momentum. If the current support fails to hold, EURUSD could slip further toward the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 1.1305, and potentially as low as 1.1178 – the 1.618 extension level. Looking ahead, traders should focus on potential pullback opportunities, targeting SELL entries around 1.1540–1.1580 – a confluence zone of technical interest. However, if price breaks above the 1.1600 threshold and holds, this bearish scenario may be invalidated. What’s your outlook for EURUSD in the coming days? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Short
by Alexx_Bui
1
EUR/USD Latest Update TodayHello everyone, what do you think about FX:EURUSD ? EUR/USD previously broke the downward price channel, but failed to maintain the momentum, leading to a strong correction phase. Currently, the price is trading around 1.156 and testing key Fibonacci levels, with the 0.5 - 0.618 levels marked as potential reversal zones, as highlighted in the analysis. With the current market sentiment, the strong recovery of the USD has been the main factor driving the EUR/USD movement in recent days. Positive economic data from the US has strengthened the US dollar, decreasing the appeal of gold and safe-haven assets like the EUR. Furthermore, expectations surrounding Fed policy decisions continue to add pressure on EUR/USD, with investors bracing for the possibility of the Fed maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. For traders, it's clear that the bearish trend is in favor, as indicated by the EMA reversal. The Fibonacci levels 0.5 (1.164) and 0.618 (1.161) will be crucial zones, where reaction signals could open opportunities for SELL positions. The next target will be at Fib 1 and Fib 1.618. That's my perspective and share, but what do you think about the current trend of EUR/USD? Leave your comments below this post!
Short
by Kevinn_Nguyen
EUR/USD Holds Lower-High ResistancePerhaps it's a buy the rumor sell the news event, or maybe it's just squaring up ahead of a really big week of U.S. drivers, but so far this week EUR/USD is putting in a sizable sell-off. Notably, the rally last week ran through the ECB rate decision and price held at a lower-high as bulls suddenly got shy around tests of resistance. This retains bearish potential given the breach of the rising wedge and the lower-lows that printed a couple of weeks ago, which led into the bounce of lower-highs last week. Also notable is where that resistance held - right around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 major move, as that held the highs on Friday ahead of today's sell-off. If looking for USD-weakness, I think there could be more amenable pastures elsewhere, such as GBP/USD. But for USD-strength, EUR/USD makes a compelling argument given the current technical structure. - js
by FOREXcom
EURUSD | Faces Continued Downside, Reversal Above 1.1745EURUSD | Faces Continued Downside Risk; Reversal Only Confirmed Above 1.1747 The price initiated a bearish trend from the resistance level at 1.1747 and continues to decline. As long as it remains below the pivot level at 1.1685, further downside pressure is expected, with potential targets at 1.1632 and 1.1559. A confirmed break below this zone would reinforce the more bearish momentum. However, if the price reverses and moves back above the pivot line, it may first reach 1.1747 before resuming the downward trend again. The bullish trend confirmation will start above 1.1747. Key Levels: • Pivot line: 1.1685 • Resistance: 1.1747, 1.1894. • Support: 1.1632, 1.15993, 1.1559.
Short
by SroshMayi
EURUSD Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.1665 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 1.1728 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
DeGRAM | EURUSD breakout📊 Technical Analysis ● Two successive rejections at the upper-channel/long-term trend-cap (red arrows) printed bearish engulfings; price has slipped back under 1.1687 minor support, breaking the July micro up-trend. ● Momentum now points to the channel mid-line ≈1.1650; clearing it exposes the lower rail / May pivot 1.1594, in line with the projected swing depth. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Hot US Q2-GDP and an upside surprise in core-PCE lifted 2-yr Treasury yields, reviving dollar demand, while ECB sources signalled no urgency to hike further after soft July PMIs. ✨ Summary Short 1.1680-1.1700; hold below 1.1687 targets 1.1650 ▶ 1.1595. Invalidate on a 4 h close above 1.1750. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
1