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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Eyes Weekly Resistance as DXY Falls on Geopolitical Fear EUR/USD Analysis Recent global events particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran and associated political instability have contributed to a sustained downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The index is currently approaching major historical support levels, which further reinforces the weakening dollar narrative. Inversely, EUR/USD continues to exhibit bullish momentum. The pair is steadily climbing and is now approaching a key weekly resistance level. If this resistance is broken, we anticipate a strong push toward our final take-profit (TP) target. At present: Market Structure remains bullish We are watching for signs of continuation such as: Change of character (ChoCH) Break of structure (BoS) Demand zone confirmations We're currently scanning for a low-risk entry upon confirmation preferably via a clean pullback or bullish engulfing confirmation on the lower timeframes. The goal is to catch the next leg up with solid risk-reward. For now, it’s a waiting game. The trend is our friend, and we’ll let price action show us the way. Let’s see how this bad boy plays out.
Long
by Onyukwu
1
EURO - Price will strart to grow and exit from wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Price entered to wedge pattern and at once dropped below $1.1455 level, breaking it and then some time traded below. It continued to decline and in a short time reached $1.1220 level and broke it, after which fell to support line. Then price started to grow and soon broke $1.1220 level one more time, after which made a retest and continued to grow. Euro rose to $1.1420 points and then corrected to support level, after which turned around and rose to resistance level. Recently price reached resistance level, but then it bounced and started to decline, and now it continues to fall. I think that Euro can decline a little more and then bounce up to $1.1550, exiting from wedge. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by WalterMoon
15
euro/usdTRADE 5 i belive that e/u is deffently bullish but i do see a reversal happening allthough i belive this pair to retrace you could catch the pull back to pull the trigger on a new higher higher but i wouldnt personally jump in on the trade on this one i would wait to see where the retracment goes before i jump in remmeber this best part of trading is LEARNING WHEN NOT TO TRADE protect your wealth people i cant stress enought how manyt account i have blown by not knowing when to shut my computer and waiting for a better entry saying that i do belive e/u will go down to come back up lets see where it goes who know I COULD BE WRONG
Short
by andrevella
2
EUR/USD Long-Term Trade Idea (Bullish to Bearish Transition)The EUR/USD pair is expected to enter a bullish phase in the near term, potentially rising toward the key resistance zones between 1.18616 and 1.20143. These levels are likely to act as strong reversal points, where the pair could encounter significant selling pressure. Once price reaches this zone, a bearish reversal is anticipated, aligning with broader technical signals and long-term resistance structures. This setup presents an opportunity to ride the bullish momentum toward these levels, then potentially shift to a sell bias upon confirmation of rejection or reversal patterns within that zone. “Buy the strength, sell the exhaustion — let the market come to you.”
Long
by ProfissionalGoldHntryhunter
2
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EURUSD remains below a key resistance zone, and at this stage, it does not appear to have enough momentum to break through. We are watching for potential sell setups around this area. As long as there is no daily candle close above the resistance, we expect a pullback toward the specified support level. If a daily candle closes above the resistance zone, the bearish scenario will be invalidated, and the structure may shift. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Short
by HAMED_AZ
16
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Faces RejectionMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Faces Rejection EUR/USD declined from the 1.1640 resistance and traded below 1.1550. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1600 zone. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1600 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1550 support zone against the US Dollar. The pair declined below 1.1520 and tested the 1.1475 zone. A low was formed near 1.1475 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1495 level. The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1550 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.1505 level. The next key resistance is at 1.1545 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545. The main resistance is near the 1.1580 level. A clear move above the 1.1580 level could send the pair toward the 1.1615 resistance. An upside break above 1.1615 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1650. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1475. The next key support is at 1.1450. If there is a downside break below 1.1450, the pair could drop toward 1.1400. The next support is near 1.1350, below which the pair could start a major decline. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Mitigation Block in Forex Trading: What It Is and How to Use It?What a Mitigation Block Is, and How You Can Use It When Trading Forex? Understanding specific market mechanisms like mitigation blocks may enhance strategic decision-making. This article delves into the concept of mitigation blocks, detailing their definition, function, and practical application within forex. Definition and Function of a Mitigation Block A mitigation block in forex trading refers to a specific order block on a chart that indicates where previous movements have stalled and reversed, marking it as a potential area for future market turns. This concept within the Smart Money framework is crucial for traders looking to manage their positions by taking advantage of strategic entry and exit points. The idea behind these areas is rooted in the dynamics of supply and demand within forex. When a currency pair reaches a level where buyers or sellers have previously entered the market in force, causing a reversal, it suggests a potential repeat of such actions when the price returns to the area. Characteristics and How to Identify a Mitigation Block Mitigation blocks can be bullish or bearish, each with distinct characteristics: - Bearish Mitigation Block: This type forms during an uptrend and is identified by a significant peak followed by a decline and a failed attempt to reach or surpass the previous high, creating a lower high. When prices drop below the previous low, the order block above the low becomes mitigation. It may be characterised by an increase in selling volume as the price approaches the level, signalling resistance and a potential downward reversal. - Bullish Mitigation Block: Conversely, a bullish type is established during a downtrend. It is characterised by a significant trough, followed by a rise to form a higher low, and a failure to drop below the previous low. As the pair moves up, the order block below the high marks mitigation one. This area often shows an increase in buying volume as the price approaches, indicating support and a potential upward reversal. Mitigation Block vs Breaker Block Mitigation and breaker blocks are both significant in identifying potential trend reversals in forex trading, but they have distinct characteristics that set them apart. A mitigation block forms after a failure swing, which occurs when the market attempts but fails to surpass a previous peak in an uptrend or a previous trough in a downtrend. The pattern indicates a loss of momentum and a potential reversal as the price fails to sustain its previous direction. On the other hand, a breaker block is characterised by the formation of a new high or low before the market structure is broken, indicating that liquidity has been taken. This means that although the trend initially looked set to continue, it quickly reverses and breaks structure. In effect, a breaker appears when the market takes liquidity beyond a swing point before reversing the trend. A mitigation appears when the price doesn’t move beyond the trend’s most recent high or low, instead plotting a lower high or higher low before reversing the trend. How to Use Mitigation Blocks in Trading Areas of mitigation in trading can be essential tools for identifying potential trend reversals and entry points. When they align with a trader's analysis that anticipates a reversal at a certain level, it can serve as a robust confirmation for entry. Traders can effectively utilise these zones by simply placing a limit order within the area once it is considered valid. Validation occurs after a new peak or trough is established following the initial failure swing that forms the mitigation area. If a liquidity void or fair-value gap is present, the trader may look for such a gap to be filled before their limit order is triggered, potentially offering a tighter entry. Stop losses might be placed beyond the failure swing or the most extreme point. Furthermore, if a mitigation block is identified on a higher timeframe, traders can refine their entry by switching to a lower timeframe. This approach allows for a tighter entry point and potentially better risk management, as it offers more granular insight into the momentum around the area. Common Mistakes and Limitations While these blocks are valuable for forex trading, they come with potential pitfalls and limitations that traders should know. - Overreliance: Relying solely on mitigation blocks without corroborating with other trading indicators can lead to misjudged entries and exits. - Ignoring Context: Using these zones without considering the broader market conditions may result in trading against a prevailing strong trend. - Misinterpretation: Incorrect identification can lead to erroneous trading decisions, especially for less experienced traders. - False Signals: Mitigation blocks can sometimes appear to signal a reversal but instead lead to a continuation of the trend, trapping traders in unfavourable positions. The Bottom Line Understanding mitigation blocks offers traders a strategic edge in navigating the forex market. They can be vital for recognising potential price reversals and improving trading outcomes. FAQs What Is a Mitigation Block? A mitigation block in forex trading is an order block that identifies potential reversal points. It signals where a currency pair has previously stalled, indicating strong buying or selling pressure, suggesting a potential for similar reactions in future encounters with these levels. How Do You Identify a Mitigation Block? Mitigation blocks are identified by analysing charts for areas where previous highs or lows were not surpassed, leading to a reversal. Traders look for a sequence of movements, including a swing high or low followed by a retracement that fails to exceed the previous swing. What Is the Difference Between a Breaker Block and a Mitigation Block? While both indicate potential reversals, a breaker block forms when the price makes a new high or low before reversing, suggesting a temporary continuation of the trend. In contrast, a mitigation block forms without creating a new extreme, indicating a direct loss of momentum and an immediate potential for reversal. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD: Weekly PAT + VPA 5/11/2025Trading Analysis EUR/USD - Price Action and Volume Price Analysis Weekly Structure Analysis: At present, we find ourselves within a bullish weekly range. The lower boundary of this range is 1.07330, established during the week of March 24, 2025, while the upper boundary is at 1.15734, reached the week of April 21, 2025. The price movement from 1.073 to 1.157 has surpassed a swing high, which we will identify as our initial resistance point as we aim to return to 1.15734. Weekly Price Action Analysis: Analyzing structure and price action reveals similarities. Our confidence in a bullish trend is the anchored weekly bar. The weekly candle from the week of April 7, 2025 serves as this anchor. Following the inside bar, we observed a bearish pin bar, which acts as a Bullish Reacher since its wick exceeded the high of the anchor bar's wick (Wick on Wick). The market shows signs of wanting to rise, but it must first hit a demand zone that weekly traders are keen to engage with. Volume Price Analysis: The last four weekly candles have demonstrated limited strength in driving the market lower, with support holding at 1.11927 (1.12). As the price declines, trading volume is decreasing, following a sharp upward movement, likely due to profit-taking or repositioning. Volume analysis indicated we should retest 1.15734. Good luck and happy trading! OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY
Long
by ThePipAssassin
2
EURUSD Analysis – Short Bias Builds on Key Resistance RejectionEURUSD pair is currently testing a critical resistance zone around 1.1495–1.1500, with bearish rejection beginning to form on the 4H timeframe. The technical setup suggests a potential lower high forming within the context of a broader downtrend, supported by a confluence of horizontal resistance and bearish risk catalysts. 🔍 Technical Overview: Resistance Zone: 1.1495–1.1575 (multi-timeframe key levels) Support Levels to Watch: 1.1234 (range base) and 1.1086 (swing low) Price Action: After a sustained rally, price is showing exhaustion near previous highs, and a rejection pattern is emerging, suggesting selling interest. Risk Management: Stop placed above 1.1575 high, with downside targets near 1.1234 and extended toward 1.1086. 🧠 Fundamental Backdrop: ECB Policy Outlook: Lagarde recently warned that a stronger euro and higher tariffs may hurt EU exports. This dovish tone could weigh on EUR sentiment in the medium term. US Dollar Strengthening: The latest US labor market data (ADP, JOLTS) beat expectations, showing continued resilience in employment and wage growth. This supports the Fed's data-dependent approach, favoring a stronger USD. Macro Tensions: Global trade concerns (Trump’s tariffs, weak China demand, Germany’s slowing job market) are adding pressure to EUR while supporting safe-haven USD flows. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (April): Highlights persistent inflation fears and deteriorating economic confidence. ⏳ Scenario Outlook: ✅ Bearish Bias Preferred below 1.1500 with confirmation of rejection. 🎯 Target Zone 1: 1.1234 – Strong structure & demand zone. 🎯 Target Zone 2 (Extended): 1.1086 – Major low from mid-May. ❌ Invalidation: A breakout and close above 1.1575 would neutralize the bearish outlook and open up higher targets toward 1.17. Conclusion: The EURUSD pair presents a compelling short opportunity, with both technical resistance and macro pressure aligning for a retracement or reversal. Short setups are favored unless bulls reclaim and hold above the 1.1575 handle.
Short
by ultreosforex
19
EURUSD: Perfect spot to short.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.082, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 31.112) as it is trading inside a Channel Up since the May 12th low. The 4H RSI sequence suggests that based on the Channel's first bullish wave, the market is now on the 4th count, which was previously the top (as close to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension as possible). We turn bearish here, targeting the 0.786 Fib level at the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 1.13550). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation. The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets) On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth. Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants. However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other. all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers! Chart White dashed line - 2008 Resistance Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily) Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
by RobertTMFX
1
EUR/USD (1-Hour Timeframe) – Bearish Trade Setup Explanation.This chart shows a potential short (sell) opportunity on EUR/USD based on the Smart Money Concept (SMC), focusing on Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block (OB) confluence. 🔍 Key Zone Highlighted: The price has retraced into a supply zone, which combines: Fair Value Gap (FVG) – an imbalance created by a strong bearish move. Order Block (OB) – the last bullish candle before a strong bearish push, now acting as resistance. This confluence makes the zone (around 1.15870) a high-probability reversal area. 📉 Trade Plan: Sell Entry: Near the current price at 1.15870, inside the FVG+OB zone. Stop Loss (SL): Placed above the supply zone at 1.16400 to protect from invalidation. Target 1: 1.15107 – conservative target based on previous support. Final Target: 1.14100 – a lower liquidity zone that could be reached if bearish momentum continues. 💡 Logic Behind the Setup: Price is reacting to a previously respected bearish OB + FVG. Strong bearish impulse occurred from this zone earlier, suggesting institutional selling. The retracement back into this zone presents a low-risk, high-reward short entry. Expectation: price will reject from this zone and move down toward the targets. ✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: The setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, especially if the final target is reached.
Short
by m_zeeshan3644
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1611 1st Support: 1.1495 1st Resistance: 1.1649 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets