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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD H2 Best Levels to BUY/SELL and Market Update🏆 EURUSD Market Update m20 short-term trade 📊 Technical Outlook 🔸Short-term: BEARS 1275 🔸1500/1540 short sell rips/rallies 🔸Mid-Term outlook: BULLS 1750 🔸bulls buy low 1250/1275 reload 🔸bulls exit at 1750 swing trade 🔸Price Target Bears: 1250/1275 🔸Price Target Bulls: 1750 🌍 Macro & Political Drivers U.S. tax & spending concerns: The Congressional Budget Office now projects President Trump's tax‑and‑spending bill will raise deficits by about $2.8 trillion over the next decade. This massive debt addition is pressuring the U.S. dollar, as rising Treasury issuance and weaker fiscal confidence weigh on demand. Geopolitical tensions: Escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict is pushing investors toward the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The DXY jumped to around 98.80 as President Trump’s remarks on Iran sent the EUR/USD down to approximately 1.1484. EU developments: ECB officials, including Christine Lagarde, are doubling down on strengthening Europe’s financial infrastructure to elevate the euro as a viable alternative to the dollar — calling this a “global euro moment.” Key resistance is around 1.1550–1.1575; downside support zones near 1.1450 and broader range 1.1360–1.1420 remain intact, though current levels suggest consolidation above the lower range. Strength from safe-haven flows could stall upward momentum. 📊 ECB Policy & Inflation Signals The ECB cut rates by 25 bp last week to 2.0%, reinforcing the message that inflation remains subdued (1.9% in May) and prompting a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision approach. ECB speakers stress “agile pragmatism” given global uncertainties, citing the euro’s ~10% rally year-to-date but cautioning amid rising oil prices and geopolitical risks. ⚡ What to Watch Next Catalyst Outlook U.S. yields & bond auctions More issuance tied to tax plans could steepen the curve and support the USD. Middle East headlines Escalation may continue to offer dollar safe-haven benefits, pressuring EUR/USD. EU economic data Inflation softness (e.g., France) could weaken ECB’s stance, re-pressuring the euro. Technical levels Watch 1.1450 support—holds for possible rebound; resistance 1.1550–1.1575 for upside pressure. ✅ Summary Current: EUR/USD around 1.1484, with bearish tilt amid risk aversion. Bull case: Ongoing U.S. fiscal weakness, delayed tariffs, and ECB support for euro could cap downside. Bear case: Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, Fed‑ECB divergence, and technical breakdown through 1.1450 could push toward 1.1360.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
31
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Faces RejectionMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Faces Rejection EUR/USD declined from the 1.1640 resistance and traded below 1.1550. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1600 zone. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1600 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1550 support zone against the US Dollar. The pair declined below 1.1520 and tested the 1.1475 zone. A low was formed near 1.1475 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1495 level. The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1550 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.1505 level. The next key resistance is at 1.1545 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545. The main resistance is near the 1.1580 level. A clear move above the 1.1580 level could send the pair toward the 1.1615 resistance. An upside break above 1.1615 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1650. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1475. The next key support is at 1.1450. If there is a downside break below 1.1450, the pair could drop toward 1.1400. The next support is near 1.1350, below which the pair could start a major decline. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Markets on EdgeGlobal markets tread cautiously today amid rising Middle East tensions and investor jitters ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. Israel’s continued airstrikes on Iran, now in their 6th day, are weighing heavily on sentiment, with European stocks and oil prices lacking direction. 📊 US Dollar Watch: Traders are closely eyeing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart: • 🔻 Price hit a new low, but RSI divergence signals waning downside momentum. • ⚠️ Approaching long-term uptrend support from 2011 near 96.30 — could trigger profit-taking. 🪙 EUR/USD Weekly: • ⚠️ Momentum fading as it nears the 78.6% retracement at 1.1696. • RSI shows bearish divergence despite recent price highs. 📌 Key Takeaway: Charts suggest potential for a pause or reversal in recent USD weakness. This is not investment advice. #Forex #USD #EURUSD #DXY #FederalReserve #Markets #TechnicalAnalysis #Geopolitics #Trading
by The_STA
EUR/USD Bearish Reversal AnalysisEUR/USD Bearish Reversal Analysis 📉🧭 🔍 Technical Breakdown: Trend Structure: EUR/USD was trading inside an ascending channel, respecting both support and resistance trendlines. 🔴 Double Rejection at Resistance: Price action faced strong rejection near the upper boundary of the channel and resistance zone (~1.16500), forming a lower high, suggesting bearish exhaustion. 🟠 Key Breakdown Zone: A critical horizontal support around 1.13560 has been identified as a short-term target zone. This level previously acted as a demand zone and now may be retested. 🔽 Forecast Path: A projected bearish wave is anticipated: A potential pullback or consolidation may occur before resuming the downtrend. Once 1.13560 is broken, price could drop further toward the major support zone around 1.12000, marked by the previous accumulation area. 🟦 Support Zone: This final target aligns with a major structural support from late May, strengthening the bearish outlook if the breakdown continues. 📌 Conclusion: EUR/USD is showing signs of a bearish reversal after failing to sustain above resistance. As long as it remains below the mid-channel region, further downside toward 1.12000 is likely, with 1.13560 as the key short-term level to watch.
Short
by MrStellanSight
1
EUR/USD Pressured by Safe-Haven Dollar DemandEUR/USD traded near 1.15 on Wednesday, under pressure from safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar as Middle East tensions escalated. Fears of broader conflict involving the U.S. kept the dollar firm. Markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to stay unchanged, though guidance may shape future expectations. The euro remained weak, burdened by Europe’s energy import exposure amid rising oil prices. Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters. The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound from the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● A completed AB=CD (0.883 / 1.112) pattern at the channel floor (1.1488) produced a hammer, signalling exhaustion of bears at the measured PRZ. ● Price is now reclaiming the micro structure high 1.1526; that flips the inner range to support and opens the next intra-channel pivot 1.1560, with room to the upper wall near 1.1600. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● EZ May trade balance swung back to a €4 bn surplus while weak US housing starts shaved another 4 bp off 2-yr yields, compressing the short-rate gap and underpinning EUR bids. ✨ Summary Buy 1.1500-1.1530; break >1.1560 targets 1.1600, stretch 1.1650. Bull bias void on 30 min close below 1.1480. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSD – Bullish momentum fades, downside pressure intensifiesEURUSD formed a lower high near 1.1613, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Price is now testing a key trendline, and a break below 1.1473 could confirm a bearish move toward 1.1350. Market sentiment is currently dominated by the Fed’s hawkish stance following the latest FOMC meeting, where the central bank kept rates unchanged but expressed readiness to hike further if necessary. Meanwhile, although tensions in the Middle East are escalating, they have yet to deliver a significant blow to the USD. Given the current backdrop, EURUSD is under considerable pressure and may soon break its bullish structure unless strong buying interest re-emerges.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD LONGPrice swept below support around 1.1473, grabbing liquidity and quickly bouncing back — this is a classic Wyckoff spring setup. 📌 Key Levels Entry: Around 1.1500 Stop Loss: Below 1.1424 (spring low) Target 1: 1.1567 (range high) Target 2: 1.1614 (measured move) 🔍 Why I like this setup: Fake breakdown (spring) and quick recovery Buyers showed up right after the sweep Expecting price to return to the top of the range and possibly break higher . This a trade we hold 💡 A spring is where smart money steps in after trapping sellers — I'm following them. “I always say that you could publish my rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.”
Long
by theeOperator90
EURUSD Has breakout the ascending channel bullish strong now EURUSD Breakout Alert! EURUSD has broken out of the descending channel with strong bullish momentum from the key support level at 1.15100. 📈 Technical Outlook (4H Time Frame): 🔹 Key Support: 1.15100 (confirmed bounce) 🔹 1st Resistance Target: 1.16300 🔹 Bullish Order Block: 1.12900 – strong demand zone below This breakout signals potential continuation to the upside. Stay tuned as price action develops! 🔥 📌 Like, Follow, Comment & Join us for more real-time updates! Trade smart, stay informed 😜 — Posted by Livia
Long
by experttrader04
1
EURUSD trades turn their eyes towards upcoming Fed Interest rateEUR/USD has been trading sideways after peaking above 1.1600 last week, as traders adopt a wait and see approach ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision due tomorrow morning (AEST). The pair is consolidating within a tight range, with the top end of the recent rally now being questioned amid growing uncertainty. While the Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, market participants will be closely watching for any revisions to the dot plot, as well as updates to the central bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The current projections suggest two rate cuts in 2025, but any deviation from that could trigger significant dollar volatility. On the technical side, multi-year support near 1.1215 remains a critical level to watch on the downside. A break below could signal deeper bearish momentum. Adding complexity to the EUR side of the equation are two key factors: The ECB’s rate path, with the central bank seen approaching the end of its monetary easing cycle. Elevated geopolitical tensions, especially as Israel prepares further action against Tehran and the US weighs deeper involvement. Any escalation in Middle East tensions could boost demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar, potentially pressuring the euro further. In the near term, EUR/USD remains in a holding pattern, with the Fed's tone and geopolitical developments likely to determine the next directional move. "The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice."
by Blueberry
32
EURUSD: Price Action + Elliott Wave + SMC Analysis "Hello traders! Today, we're diving deep into EURUSD with a comprehensive analysis combining Price Action, Elliott Wave principles, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC). On the chart, we observe key price action elements including: * A 'Psychological FVG' (Fair Value Gap) around the 1.15100 - 1.15261 area, which could act as a potential resistance or reversal poin * A target or support level identified around 1.14494 and further down at 1.14502. Looking ahead, the diagram on the right illustrates a potential Elliott Wave structure integrated with SMC concepts: * We see proposed waves leading to a 'BOS' (Break of Structure) indicating a shift in market control. * An 'Imbalance' zone is highlighted, suggesting an area where price might seek to rebalance before continuing its move. * The overall structure points towards a continued bearish momentum after potential retracements. Key Takeaways: * Watch the identified FVG for potential reactions. * Monitor for further BOS confirmations to validate the bearish outlook. * The 'Imbalance' zone could offer shorting opportunities if price retests it. This analysis provides a multi-faceted approach to understanding potential future price movements in EURUSD. Always remember to manage your risk effectively. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments below! #EURUSD #Forex #PriceAction #ElliottWave #SMC #TradingAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketOutlook #ForexTrading"
Short
by Greenfireforex