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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD H4 RISES 🔄 Disrupted EUR/USD Analysis (4H) 📉 Current Structure: Price is hovering around 1.17298, showing hesitation at the resistance of a potential bearish flag. While the chart labels this zone as “bullish,” there are signs of market indecision, possibly a fakeout trap. ⚠️ Key Disruptions: 1. Bullish Trap Risk: The price formed a short-term M-pattern (double top inside the orange circle), indicating bearish exhaustion rather than continuation. The expected breakout to the upside may fail if bulls don’t sustain volume. 2. Support Area Weakness: The support zone around 1.17000 has been tested multiple times. If it breaks, it could turn into a strong resistance, flipping the sentiment. 3. Macro Influence: Upcoming EUR and USD economic events (noted by icons) could cause high volatility and break structure unexpectedly. A strong USD report could reverse bullish momentum, sending EUR/USD toward 1.16500 or lower. 4. Bearish Continuation Scenario: If the market breaks down from the current consolidation, expect targets at:
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
eurusd RBR EURUSD Daily Demand Zone Trade Idea This is an educational analysis based on a daily timeframe structure using supply and demand principles. Price recently made a strong bullish impulsive move, breaking above previous highs. We’re now seeing a retracement into a fresh Daily Demand Zone formed by a Rally-Base-Rally (RBR) structure. This zone also sits outside of fair value, indicating a potential area of institutional interest. Marked Demand Zone: 1.16127 area Stop Loss Level: Below the zone at ~1.15667 Target: Prior swing high near 1.17505 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 Bias: Bullish continuation, assuming the zone holds
Long
by kellygnd
EURUSD is ready to break supportCMCMARKETS:EURUSD The Euro fell to 1.1670 on Friday, positioning for nearly a 1% weekly loss 📊, as investors recalibrated risk exposure amid escalating trade tensions ⚔️ and shifting monetary policy signals 🏦. 📉 Market Structure: 🔻 EURUSD has traded in a bearish trend since July 1. 🔹 Support levels: 1.1680 and 1.1590. 🔹 Retested the 1.1680 support zone on Friday. 💡 How to Trade This: ✅ If the pair rebounds from support 🔄, consider BUYING with a Take Profit near the next resistance level. ❌ If the support breaks with confirmation 🩻, consider SELLING to target lower support zones. 📰 What’s Driving the Move? 🏦 Monetary Policy: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pushed back against calls for aggressive rate cuts 🗣️, reaffirming the Fed’s focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability ⚖️. His cautious stance adds uncertainty 🤔 to the policy outlook for the second half of the year as markets weigh inflation risks vs. growth slowdown signals. 💼 Economic Data: The labor market remains solid 💪, but recent jobless claims data show early signs of cooling 🧊, following last week’s strong NFP report. 💵 Dollar Strength: The dollar advanced sharply against the euro 🚀, driven by risk aversion, relative yield advantages, and investor positioning ahead of upcoming inflation data and the Fed’s next policy signals 📈. 🚨 Watch for: 🔸 A confirmed breakout or rebound at 1.1680 to guide trade entries. 🔸 Upcoming U.S. inflation data 🪙 for direction on Fed policy and USD strength. 🔸 Further developments in trade tensions 🌐, which could drive risk sentiment.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
Descending Channel Pattern Forming in EUR/USDThe EUR/USD pair is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart. The pair has been making consistent lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. The red downward-sloping resistance line has been respected multiple times, while the green support line continues to act as a buying zone for bulls. The resistance trendline has been tested five times (marked with red arrows), confirming strong selling pressure. The support line has held three key touches (green arrows), suggesting buyers are still defending this level. A breakout below the support zone could lead to further downside, while a reversal or breakout above resistance may trigger bullish momentum. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and breakout direction before entering new positions. ================================================================= Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. =================================================================
by TradZoo
EURUSDRecent Price Action • Price attempted to break the descending structure but failed near 1.1705. • A bearish rejection followed by a drop to 1.1667 shows sellers remain in control. • Current bounce to 1.1680 is weak — no strong bullish follow-through. Next Move Scenarios Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Base Case) • If 1.1685–1.1700 holds as resistance, a move down is expected. • Breakdown of 1.1667 likely leads to: • Target 1: 1.1650 • Target 2: 1.1600 Sell Setup • Entry: 1.1685–1.1695 • Stop Loss: 1.1715 • Take Profit: 1.1650 , 1.1600 and 1.15250
Short
by HavalMamar
EURUSD is in a Downside DirectionHello Traders In This Chart EURUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EURUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Short
by ForexMasters2000
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate EUR/USD: 1.17735 The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Region 10-Year Yield Date Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025 United States 4.348% July 5, 2025 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months. Central Bank Policy Rates Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025 Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024 The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued. The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds Rate and Yield Differentials Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone) Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79% Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage . Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year. Market Implications EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks. Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation. Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant. The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition. #eurusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
EURUSD Ahead of NFP Data! Trading ScenariosEURUSD Ahead of NFP Data! Trading Scenarios Today we have NFP data. The market expects NFP to reach 110K vs. 139K previously ADP data came in lower than expected - 33K vs. 95K expected and JOLT data came in higher than expected 7.76M vs. 7.3M It will be a risky decision to trade EURUSD today due to the market's interpretation regarding the FED and whether or not they will cut rates at the July meeting. EURUSD could make either move. If it moves above the 1.1825 box, then it could rise further for a larger bullish wave near 1.1900 If it moves below the 1.1745 box, then a larger bearish wave could occur with targets at 1.1660 and 1.1590 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
by KlejdiCuni
3
EUR/USD Could Take Off From Here! Strategic SetupHi traders! , Analyzing EUR/USD on the 30 minute timeframe, price is currently reacting from a strong support zone near 1.1696, showing potential for a bullish rebound after a sharp drop. 🔹 Entry: 1.1696 🔹 Take Profit (TP): 1.1770 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 1.1621 After a strong downside move, EUR/USD is attempting a recovery from a key intraday support area. The RSI is bouncing from oversold conditions (around 34), indicating a possible short-term shift in momentum. Price is also approaching the 200 EMA from below, and a break above could confirm bullish continuation toward the 1.1770 resistance zone. The setup offers a solid risk-reward ratio and aligns with mean reversion expectations. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader is responsible for their own decisions and risk management.
Long
by FXOnTop
HelenP. I Euro may soon reverse and test support near $1.1655Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, EURUSD has been climbing steadily within an uptrend, bouncing multiple times from the trend line and making higher highs. However, despite the recent bullish structure, the pair is now showing signs of slowing momentum. The price is approaching a possible turning point near the top, and the latest candles show hesitation. Now the pair is trading near 1.1790 and still staying above the trend line, but I believe it may rise a bit more and then break down below the trend line. Once this structure is broken, I expect sellers to take control and push EURUSD toward the nearest support zone between 1.1655 and 1.1630 points. This zone acted as a key level in the past and may serve as the next area of interest for buyers. Given the extended movement and potential loss of bullish pressure, I remain bearish and expect EURUSD to move down to retest support. The level of 1.1655 is my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by FirstNameHelen
4
Do You Have a Trading Edge?A Practical Guide to Figuring Out if What You’re Doing Is Actually Working There comes a point in every trader’s journey when you stop asking “what indicator should I use” and start asking something much more important. Is what I’m doing actually working? It’s an honest question. When the P&L has been chopping sideways or dipping red for weeks, it’s easy to feel stuck. Maybe you’ve been grinding for months, jumping from one setup to another, but still not seeing consistent progress. Before you give up or double down, it’s worth stepping back and looking at the one thing that matters most. Do you have an edge? What Is a Trading Edge, Really? A trading edge isn’t about being right all the time. It isn’t some secret indicator or a feeling in your gut. It’s a cold, hard number. Your edge is the amount of money you can expect to make or lose on average every time you place a trade. If the number is positive, you’re on the right side of probability. If it’s negative, then no amount of motivation or mindset work will stop the account from bleeding over time. Thankfully, there’s a simple formula that tells you exactly where you stand. The Formula: No Hype, Just Maths Edge per trade = (Average Win × Win Rate) − (Average Loss × Loss Rate) Or more simply: Edge = W × R – L × (1−R) Where: • W is your average winning trade in pounds • L is your average losing trade (as a positive number) • R is your win rate, written as a decimal (so 55% becomes 0.55) This is your trading edge. It’s not a concept. It’s a number. And it either works or it doesn’t. Let’s Put It Into Practice Say you win 45% of the time. Your average winning trade makes £180. Your average losing trade costs £120. Plug the numbers in. Edge = £180 × 0.45 minus £120 × 0.55 Edge = £81 minus £66 Edge = £15 That £15 is your expected value per trade. So if you take 100 trades following that same pattern, you’d expect to make £1,500 before costs. That’s the kind of maths you want working in your favour. It’s not glamorous. It’s not loud. But it’s sustainable. What if the Edge Is Negative? This is where a lot of traders lose heart. But it’s actually good news. If the formula tells you the edge isn’t there, you can stop guessing. It means you’ve identified the problem. A negative edge just tells you that, on balance, either: • you’re winning too infrequently • your losses are too large • your winners aren’t big enough And every one of those can be adjusted. This isn’t about tearing down your whole system. Often, a small shift in one variable is all it takes to turn a negative edge into a positive one. Three Ways to Nudge the Numbers in Your Favour 1. Improve the win rate slightly Look for trades with more confluence. Stick to clearer trends. Avoid taking marginal setups during unpredictable conditions. You don’t need a huge jump, even going from 40% to 47% can have a big impact. 2. Increase the size of your winners Let trades run a little longer when the conditions are right. Take partials if it helps your mindset, but keep a portion on to capture the extended move. Most traders cut profits too early and let losers drift too far. 3. Tighten up the losses Use hard stops. Respect them. Review your biggest losing trades and ask yourself if they really had to be that big. Often they didn’t. The goal is to keep losses small and repeatable, not devastating and unpredictable. A Note on Sample Size Five or ten trades won’t give you a reliable read on your edge. You need a bigger pool. Ideally 50 to 100 trades minimum. Patterns emerge over time, not in the heat of one session. A strong edge can go through losing streaks. A poor strategy can get lucky for a while. But when you track your numbers over enough trades, the truth becomes very clear. You’re Probably Closer Than You Think If you’ve never done this calculation before, don’t feel behind. Most retail traders never actually work out their edge. They focus on indicators, entry techniques, or mindset work without ever stopping to ask if the numbers stack up. But once you do the maths, things start to change. You stop judging yourself by your last trade and start thinking in averages. You stop chasing every setup and start focusing on quality. You stop worrying about being right, and start focusing on being consistent. That’s what separates hobbyists from professionals. The numbers are the difference. Summary: If your edge is negative, you now know where to look. If it’s positive, even just slightly, you’ve got something worth building on. Either way, the path forward is clearer. Trading is hard, no question. But it’s not magic. It’s probability, risk control and discipline applied consistently. And it all starts with understanding the maths behind what you’re doing. So next time you’re questioning whether your system is any good, don’t ask how it feels. Run the numbers. Do you have a trading edge? If yes, protect it. If not, now you know what to fix. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
1
EUR/USD Slides Below 1.1720 - Dovish Euro Data and Hawkish FedThe euro continued to retreat against the U.S. dollar in Tuesday’s European session, with FOREXCOM:EURUSD falling to 1.17163, pressured by weakening Eurozone fundamentals and renewed U.S. dollar strength. Technically, the pair has broken below a short-term support zone around 1.1745, marking a clear shift toward bearish momentum. Price action on the 4-hour chart shows a rejection from the 1.1773 resistance zone last week, forming a descending pattern as sellers gained control. Multiple indicators confirm the downward bias. The MACD (19,39,29) and MACD (12,26,9) are both printing bearish crossovers, with declining histograms indicating increasing downside momentum. Meanwhile, the JoeChalhoub_FXForecaster V1, a custom indicator, shows fading bullish pressure with histogram bars turning pink and gradually weakening. The non-repainting version supports the same trend, reflecting reduced bullish participation. Adding to the technical signals, the OsMA oscillator remains negative and is steadily declining, underscoring the persistent bearish sentiment. On the fundamental side, pressure on the euro increased after this morning’s German Industrial Production data missed expectations, further reinforcing concerns about stagnation in Germany. This comes amid ongoing dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely expected to maintain a cautious stance through Q3. In contrast, the U.S. dollar is gaining ground as investors respond to Friday’s robust Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials. The central bank has hinted at the possibility of additional rate hikes should inflation remain sticky, widening the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. Key support levels for EUR/USD are now seen at 1.16890, followed by a critical zone at 1.16184. A break below these areas could open the door toward the 1.15230 region in the coming sessions. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.17498 and 1.17730. Outlook: The path of least resistance for EUR/USD remains lower in the short term. Unless upcoming data reverses the current macro narrative, the euro may remain on the defensive. Current Trade Status Opened - 7/7 @ 7:51 PM - 1.17043 Target - 1.16184 SL - 1.18289 Current Trading Account Status - (-0.007%) This is not trading advice. You should always perform your own research and technical analysis before opening a position.
Short
by jk13204