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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Long-term bullish breakout on EUR/USD!Hey traders, Let’s dive into some weekly price action on EUR/USD and uncover what the charts are really telling us. 📈 🔍 Key observations (weekly Chart): Major breakout: Two weeks ago, EUR/USD printed a strong bullish candle that broke and closed above a critical resistance zone, the July 2023 high and September 2024 high. ➡️ This marks a bullish structural shift on the higher timeframe. Bullish inside bar: Last week's candle was also bullish but formed an inside bar, closing within the previous candle’s range and failing to break the high. ➡️ This suggests consolidation, not rejection. 🧠 What it means: ✅ The break above multi-month highs signals strength and long-term bullish momentum. ✅ The inside bar can be viewed as a pause or healthy retest rather than weakness. ✅ Likely, price is accumulating orders before a new push higher. 📅 Weekly bias: bullish continuation Here’s why: The break and close above key structure is a big deal. Consolidation after such a breakout is normal and often precedes continuation. As long as price stays above the broken highs, the bias is firmly bullish. 🔔 What to watch next: ✅ A break and close above last week's high = strong bullish continuation signal. 🔁 A dip into the broken resistance (now support) + bullish rejection = a solid buy opportunity. ⚖️ There’s a price imbalance just below last week’s low, price could dip into it before taking off again. 💬 Final thoughts: The long-term trend is shifting. This is not the time to fade strength, but rather to look for high-probability entries on pullbacks. 📢 If this breakdown helped you, don’t forget to boost the idea and follow for more weekly updates!
Long
by AmaWina
2
Euro may correct to support area and then rebound upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price started its growth from the buyer zone between 1.0730 - 1.0785 points, where the price found strong support near the lower boundary of the broadening wedge. After bouncing off that zone, Euro gained momentum and made an impulsive move upward, breaking through the resistance line and establishing a bullish trajectory. Once the pair overcame the 1.1265 level, which is now acting as current support, the price entered a period of consolidation inside the support area between 1.1310 - 1.1265 points. This zone is showing signs of strength again, with the price attempting to stabilize above it. The overall structure continues to respect the boundaries of the broadening wedge, with higher highs and higher lows confirming bullish control. At the moment, EUR is correcting slightly after reaching local highs and is approaching the support area again. A healthy pullback toward 1.1310 - 1.1265 would be in line with the pattern and could trigger the next bullish impulse. Given the ongoing upward structure, the strong support area, and the clear wedge formation, I expect Euro to continue growing toward the upper wedge boundary near 1.1555 points, which is my current TP1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
11
EURUSD forms inverse head and shouldersEURUSD has stalled after testing key levels, but a new inverse head and shoulders is forming. We’re watching for a breakout above 1.1429, backed by correlated moves in GBPUSD and USDCHF. Triangle and flag patterns also point higher. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
3
Wave 5 Completed – Time to Ride the Correction!"Structure Overview Wave Count: You’ve marked the end of wave (5), indicating a potential trend reversal or correction. Bearish Setup: Price rejected the orange supply zone post wave (5), suggesting bearish pressure. Entry appears to be near the top of the small pullback into that zone. Target is set near the larger demand zone around 1.12274. Right-Side Box (Key Idea Summary): Suggests a range-bound market, followed by: A lower high into a new supply zone (brown box). A sharp drop into a deeper demand zone at the base (green zone). Key Price Levels: Resistance/Supply: 1.14153, 1.15205 Support/Demand: 1.12274, lower box near 1.11400 Possible Strategy: Sell setup: Look for confirmation candles or patterns near the orange/brown zones. Target: Previous demand zone or lower if structure breaks. SL: Above the orange/red zone to manage risk.
Short
by Greenfireforex
EUR/USD – Pullback Entry After Weekly Breakout🧠 Macro View LEI rising steadily: 71.5 → 81.15 Endogenous strength improving each month Exo+LEI composite score: 498.65 → one of the strongest major FX models USD: Fundamentally weak with dovish Fed, neutral COT 📅 Seasonality 📈 EUR Index bullish throughout April 📉 USD Index bearish all month 🔥 EUR/USD seasonality = strong long bias into April 30 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken weekly resistance → now acting as turncoat support Expecting pullback to 0.382 Fib level (~1.1462) before continuation Structure + macro + seasonality aligned for high-conviction long 📥 Entry: 1.1462 (Fib 0.382 retracement zone) ⛔ Stop Loss: Below (1.12424) 🎯 Take Profit: Retest high or 1.1583 and beyond (extension optional) 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2.2+
Long
by wajahatarif
SMC Precision Short on EURUSD | SMT + Liquidity Grab = Clean Set📉 EURUSD 15M | Smart Money Concept (SMC) Trade Idea 🔍 Market Structure & Bias: - High Timeframe POI (1H): Price tapped into a 1H Supply Zone, indicating potential short setups aligning with HTF bias. - Break of Structure (BOS):Clean BOS to the downside confirms market intent shifting bearish. 🧠 Smart Money Logic : - Liquidity Grab: Price swept liquidity above the equal highs and immediately rejected the 1H supply zone. - Refinement: On the 15M, an entry block (OB) formed right after the SMT - Mitigation: Price mitigated a lower timeframe demand and then gave an impulsive move down confirming intent. - Entry: Entered short at the mitigation of the refined 15M supply zone. - Stop Loss: Above the recent high (liquidity sweep). - Target: TP1:At the internal liquidity low (marked green @ 1.13152). TP2:Final target at external liquidity below swing low @ 1.12637 Trade Details : - 📍 Entry: 1.1372 - 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.1391 - 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 1.13152 TP2: 1.12637 Thanks for your time..
Short
by Naren_2410
EUR/USD Slides to 1.1350 Amid USD Strength & ECB Dovish Signals📌 Daily Market Summary: EUR/USD Slides to 1.1350 Amid USD Strength & ECB Dovish Signals EUR/USD declined toward 1.1350 on Friday as the US Dollar gained strength, driven by easing tensions in the US–China trade standoff. Reports suggest Beijing may suspend additional tariffs on some US goods. Despite the dip, the euro remains firm against most major currencies except North American ones. ECB members Holzmann and Rehn highlighted ongoing structural weaknesses in the Eurozone and increased risks of inflation undershooting the 2% target. Olli Rehn suggested that the current conditions justify a rate cut as early as June. 📊 Technical Outlook EUR/USD dropped to 1.1350, but the broader trend remains bullish, with the 20-week EMA still pointing higher around 1.0885. 💼 Trading Plan 🟢 BUY ZONE Entry: 1.12725 Stop Loss: 1.12000 Take Profit: 1.13165 🔴 SELL ZONE Entry: 1.14775 Stop Loss: 1.15300 Take Profit: 1.14350 📉 Caution: With political news and central bank guidance shaping sentiment, traders should closely monitor reactions at key levels and stick to their risk management rules.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
EURUSD Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1506 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1409 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2
WHY EURUSD IS STILL BULLISH DETAILED ANALYSIS We closely monitoring EUR/USD, which is currently trading around 1.0430. The pair has shown resilience after rebounding from the 1.0220 support level, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the 3-day chart. This pattern suggests potential for a bullish reversal, especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers from oversold conditions. The price action aligns with the lower boundary of a long-term descending channel, indicating a possible shift in trend. Fundamentally, the euro is under pressure due to the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent rate cut to 2.25%, marking the seventh reduction since mid-2024. This move aims to counteract the economic slowdown exacerbated by U.S. tariffs on EU imports. In contrast, the U.S. dollar faces its challenges, with political tensions arising from President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates swiftly. These dynamics have led to increased volatility and a weakened dollar, influencing EUR/USD movements. Technically, the ascending triangle pattern observed on the 4-hour chart supports a bullish outlook. A decisive break above the 1.0625 resistance could pave the way for targets at 1.0760 and subsequently 1.0850. However, traders should remain cautious, as a drop below the 1.0220 support might signal a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially testing parity levels. In the current market environment, it's crucial to stay updated with economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Key events, such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Eurozone inflation data, will provide further insights into the pair's direction. Employing sound risk management strategies and staying informed will be essential for navigating the EUR/USD landscape effectively.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
Why Should You Care About ER?🚀 Hey Traders! Have You Ever Felt Lost in the Chaos of Market Fluctuations? What if I told you there’s a powerful tool that can help you cut through the noise and give you a statistical edge to predict SUPPORT and RESISTANCE movements with confidence? Let me take 5 minutes of your time to introduce you to something that could transform your trading game: Expected Range Volatility (ER) . What is Expected Range Volatility (ER)? The Expected Range (ER) is a framework that helps traders understand how much an asset is likely to move within a specific timeframe. Based on CME market data and Nobel Prize-winning calculations, price movements within the expected volatility corridor have a 68% probability of staying within those boundaries. 💡 Key Insight: When the price approaching certain levels, there’s a 68% chance the price won’t break through those boundaries. This means you can use ER as a powerful filter to identify more precise entry and exit points for your trades. Why Should You Care About ER? When I first discovered the ER tool, it felt like stumbling upon a gold mine in the trading world. Here’s why: It’s free and available on the CME exchange’s website. It’s underutilized —95% of traders don’t even know it exists. It provides statistical clarity in a world full of uncertainty. I remember the first time I used ER in my analysis—it completely changed the way I approached intraday trading. Now, I never make a trade without checking the ER data. It’s become an essential part of my strategy. How to Use ER in Your Trading 1️⃣ Input the Data: Head over to the CME website, plug in the necessary parameters, and get your ER values. 2️⃣ Set Boundaries: Use the ER range as a guide to set potential support and resistance levels. 3️⃣ Filter Trades: Only take trades that align with the ER framework to improve your precision. A recent example is the Japanese yen futures market. Don't be confused by the fact that we take futures levels, it can easily be plotted on a spot chart for forex market (the dollar/yen). Limitations to Keep in Mind While ER is a powerful tool, it’s not a crystal ball. Here are some limitations: Market Dynamics: Short-term price movements can be unpredictable due to sentiment, news, or economic events. ER provides a statistical estimate, but it doesn’t guarantee outcomes. Assumptions: The formula assumes price movements follow a log-normal distribution , which may not hold true in all market conditions. Your Turn: Are You Using ER in Your Strategy? 💭 Here’s the million-dollar question: Are you leveraging the power of Expected Range Volatility in your trading? If not, why not start today? 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments below: Do you currently use ER or similar statistical tools? Want to Dive Deeper? If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, don’t miss out on our all-in-one resource designed to help you master tools like ER and other valuable sources to gain market edge! 🔥 Remember: No Valuable Data = No Edge!
Education
by ClashChartsTeam