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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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GBP/USD Analysis by DreamsFX HubTechnical Analysis: The current price action around $1.2735 is critical. Traders are watching this level closely; a break above could signal a move towards $1.2865, indicating a continuation of the bullish momentum. This level acts as a pivot, and its breach could attract more buying interest, reinforcing the upward trend in the short term. Market Sentiment: The general market sentiment leans towards cautious optimism for GBP buyers, especially as the price approaches key support levels. The expectation here is that if the price holds above these supports, such as the 200-day EMA, there could be a significant bounce, pushing GBP/USD towards higher targets. This sentiment is underpinned by technical indicators like RSI and MACD, which might suggest an oversold condition ready for a bullish reversal. Fundamental Insights: Recent comments from the Bank of England regarding potential rate cuts have introduced a layer of complexity to GBP's outlook. However, if these rate cuts are perceived as a measure to control inflation without severely impacting economic growth, it could actually support GBP in the medium term by preventing overheating and fostering sustainable growth. This scenario might encourage buying as traders look for value in GBP amidst a more balanced economic policy outlook. Conclusion for Buyers: For those looking to buy GBP/USD, the current environment suggests patience while waiting for confirmation above $1.2735. If this level breaks, the buying case strengthens, aiming for targets like $1.2865. The combination of technical support and a nuanced view on the BoE's policy direction could provide a foundation for a buying strategy, focusing on entries at or slightly above this key level with stops placed below significant supports to manage risk.
Long
by DreamsForx
GBPUSD - Potential Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
GBPUSD – retesting the 200dma from below .. the week of 09 DecAfter being in bullish territory (above the 200dma) for over 6 months, this pair has broken below and on Fri, it retested (bounced off) the moving average. That is my reason #1 for a bearish bias. #2 – The area around 1.2750 is a significant s/r & price has met with resistance here. #3 – The bullish move we saw over the last 2 weeks was a retracement of the down move that began on 06 Nov. #4 – This retracement of 50% coincides with the 1.2750 s/r level. #5 – The weekly and daily chart are in complete alignment with this analysis. #6 – The H4 chart shows how price has been moving in an equidistant channel during the retracement phase. Like most retracements, this move has been weak and shallow. I believe that price will break out of this channel to the downside and the bearish move will soon continue. If this happens, price will also move below the 20sma. This will complete the picture I want to see for bearish price action. I will place my stop above today’s daily pin bar and will initially target the 1.2340 region. My expectation is that this has the potential to be a prolonged bearish trend. This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. If you decide to trade this, you should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
2
GBPUSD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
by Tonksovave
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 12, 2024 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: On Wednesday, GBP/USD exhibited limited movement, stalling near 1.27500 in response to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which aligned with market expectations. The remainder of the week is relatively quiet in terms of UK economic data, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Thursday. The US PPI inflation rate saw a slight increase in the year to November, with core PPI inflation rising from 2.6% to 2.7% year-on-year. Core PPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year. Additionally, monthly core CPI inflation increased in November, rising from 0.2% in October to 0.3% month-on-month. Despite the overall increase in core inflation, Wednesday's CPI figures were largely in line with expectations, maintaining a moderate outlook for investors. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that there is now a 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut when the Fed meets for its latest rate meeting on 18 December. Despite a short-term rise in CPI inflation, investors have concluded that the fluctuations in the published data are insufficient to prompt the Fed to reverse its latest quarter-point rate cut to end 2024. US PPI inflation is expected to decline on Thursday, with markets anticipating a similar outcome to this week's CPI data. Producer-level inflation is projected to increase at the front end of the curve but remain near recent levels. The core price index is forecast to rise to 3.2% y/y, up slightly from the previous reading of 3.1%. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.27500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD H4 | Falling from the Fibo confluence?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.2834, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement and the 78.6% Fibo projection, indicating a strong level of resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.2728, an overlap support level. The stop loss will be at 1.2942, a pullback resistance close to the 78.6% 61.8% Fibo retracement High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations. While the prospect of a 25bps rate cut at the December - - - - FOMC meeting has strengthened, there is a growing consensus that the pace of rate cuts may slow next year. - Reports suggesting that BOJ officials believe delaying a rate hike until January or slightly later would not incur significant costs have led to yen weakness. - The Bank of Canada implemented a 50bps rate cut as expected by the market. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower its benchmark rate by 25bps. Reports from foreign media indicate that China may consider tolerating a weaker yuan next year to respond to tariff threats from Trump’s second administration. Key Economic Indicators + December 12: ECB interest rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI) + December 13: U.K. October GDP GBP/USD Chart Analysis It appears that the pair has maintained its upward trend, finding support around the 1.25000 level and climbing to the 1.28000 level. Further gains are expected, with the next potential resistance around the 1.30000 level. However, it remains uncertain whether the pair will reach the peak of the trend afterward. In the short term, the trend leans bullish, while the long-term direction will require further evaluation. If unexpected movements occur, strategies will be adjusted swiftly.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Opening Day of the Week Great short on GBPUSD on a retrace.Looking at RSI, this move will take a retracement, and then continue the next swing downward. Let the pair come to the .618 retracement level, and short there. Target is the 1.618 or 1.272 retracement of the swing up. cheers. RSI is showing strong indication that this move is not done. It is currently making a retracement (ie the current swing upward). As it comes to the 0.618 to 0.786 level, short the pair. RSI confirms this.
Short
by SAILBOATEVANMOSERS
GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
What Are Lagging Indicators, and How Can You Use ThemWhat Are Lagging Indicators, and How Can You Use Them in Trading? Lagging indicators are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping traders confirm trends and assess market momentum using historical price data. This article explores what lagging indicators are, the types available, and how traders use them in their strategies. We’ll also discuss their limitations and common mistakes traders should avoid. What Are Lagging Indicators? Lagging technical indicators are tools that traders use to confirm the direction of a price trend after it has already begun. There are leading and lagging technical indicators. The difference between leading and lagging indicators is that the former signal future price movements while the latter relying on past data help traders spot well-established trends. These indicators work by smoothing out price movements over time, which helps traders analyse whether a trend is likely to continue. For example, after a market has been rising steadily, a lagging indicator may show that the trend has solidified, giving traders more confidence in their analysis. However, because they react to past movements, lagging indicators can be slow to signal when a trend is reversing, which is why they’re often used alongside other tools. A lagging indicator is particularly useful in trending markets, where it can help confirm the strength and direction of price action. They aren’t as effective in sideways or range-bound markets because they lag behind real-time movements. Still, when used correctly, they can offer traders valuable insight into the market’s overall momentum and help filter out noise from short-term fluctuations. Types of Lagging Indicators Lagging indicators come in a few main types, each offering a unique way to analyse market trends. These include trend-following indicators, such as moving averages, which smooth out price data to highlight the overall market direction. There are also volatility-based indicators, like Bollinger Bands, which assess the market’s fluctuations to identify possible turning points. Additionally, momentum indicators, such as the MACD, track the speed of price changes to provide insight into the strength of a trend. Each class of indicator serves a specific purpose, giving traders different angles for analysing market movements based on past price data. Note that lagging indicators in technical analysis are distinct from lagging economic indicators. The former uses historical price data to offer insights into future market movements, while the latter reflects past economic performance, providing a backwards-looking view of trends like unemployment, inflation, or GDP growth, which confirm the state of the economy only after changes have already taken place. Below, we’ll explore four examples of key lagging indicators. To see these indicators in action, try them out on FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. Moving Averages Moving averages are among the most widely used tools in technical analysis, helping traders smooth out price data to better identify market trends. There are many types of moving averages, but most traders use two primary types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While both calculate averages over a set period, the EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to market changes compared to the SMA, which treats all price points equally. One of the key signals moving averages produce is the crossover, also called the Golden Cross and Death Cross. A Golden Cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average, like the 50-period EMA, crosses above a longer-term moving average, such as the 200-period EMA, indicating potential upward momentum. On the other hand, a Death Cross happens when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA, signalling a possible bearish shift. These crossovers help traders identify potential trend reversals. Moving averages can be utilised as dynamic support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, prices often bounce off a moving average, acting as support. In downtrends, the same moving average can act as resistance, preventing price rises. Another signal is the angle of the moving average itself. A rising moving average suggests an uptrend and a falling one indicates a downtrend. Traders often interpret this alongside whether the price sits above or below the moving average. Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are a versatile tool in technical analysis, designed to measure market volatility and potential overbought or oversold conditions. Created by John Bollinger, the indicator consists of three lines: a middle band (typically a 20-period simple moving average), and two outer bands plotted at two standard deviations above and below the middle band. These bands dynamically adjust as volatility changes, making them useful in different market environments. According to theory, buyers dominate the market when the price rises above the middle line, while a drop below this line signals sellers gaining control. The bands can often act as a dynamic support/resistance level. However, these aren’t stand-alone buy or sell signals and should be confirmed with other indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), to avoid false alarms. Another common signal Bollinger Bands provide is overbought and oversold conditions. When prices exceed the upper band, the market might be overbought, indicating potential exhaustion of upward momentum. Conversely, a dip below the lower band may suggest the asset is oversold, potentially signalling a bounce or reversal. Another important signal Bollinger Bands provide is the Bollinger Band squeeze. This occurs when the bands contract tightly around the price, indicating low volatility. Traders see this as a precursor to a potential breakout, though the direction of the move is unknown until confirmed by price action. Once volatility expands, traders can look for a breakout above or below the bands to gauge direction. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a popular momentum indicator that helps traders identify changes in market trends. It includes three key components: the MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA, which provides insight into the relationship between short-term and long-term price movements. The signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line, and the histogram shows the difference between the MACD and the signal line. MACD generates two key signals. First is the signal line crossover, where traders watch for the MACD line to cross above the signal line, which is often seen as a potential bullish indicator. When the MACD crosses below the signal line, it could indicate bearish momentum. The second signal is the zero-line crossover. When the MACD line crosses above the zero line, it suggests a shift toward bullish momentum, while crossing below the zero line may indicate bearish momentum. The MACD histogram helps traders visualise the strength of momentum. Histogram bars above the zero line indicate bullish momentum, while bars below the zero line signal bearish pressure. As the bars contract, it may signal a weakening trend and a potential reversal. Another key feature of MACD is divergence. If the price moves in one direction but the MACD moves in the opposite direction, it may signal a potential trend reversal. For instance, when the price is making higher highs but the indicator is making lower highs, it could indicate that upward momentum is weakening. Average Directional Index (ADX) The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures the strength of a trend, regardless of whether it's moving up or down. Created by J. Welles Wilder, it helps traders assess whether the market is trending or moving sideways. The ADX line ranges from 0 to 100, where values below 20 suggest a weak or non-existent trend and values above 25 indicate a strong trend. The higher the reading, the stronger the trend, with anything above 50 signalling very strong market momentum. The ADX doesn’t specify whether the trend is bullish or bearish—it only gauges strength. To determine the trend's direction, traders typically combine ADX with the Directional Movement Indicators (DMI), which include the +DI and -DI lines (in the image above, ADX is represented with the pink line, while +DI is blue and -DI is orange). When the +DI is above the -DI, the trend is likely upward, and when -DI is above +DI, the trend is likely downward. Key signals include the 25 level: a reading above this suggests that a trend is gaining strength. As ADX rises, the trend intensifies, and when it falls, the trend may be weakening, though this doesn’t necessarily imply a reversal​. ADX is particularly useful for trend-following strategies, but it’s important to combine it with other indicators for confirmation, as it doesn’t determine market direction. How Traders Use Lagging Indicators Traders use lagging indicators to confirm trends and evaluate the strength of market movements based on historical data. Here are several common ways traders apply these tools: - Trend Confirmation: Lagging indicators help verify whether a price trend is well-established. For example, moving averages smooth out price data to confirm whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend. Traders use these indicators to avoid reacting to short-term volatility and focus on longer-term trends. - Measuring Trend Strength: Indicators like the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Bollinger Bands are used to assess how strong a trend is. A rising ADX signals increasing momentum, while Bollinger Bands widening can indicate higher volatility, suggesting the trend might persist. - Spotting Momentum Shifts: Lagging indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) or moving average crossovers can highlight shifts in momentum. For instance, when the MACD line crosses the signal line, it suggests a change in momentum, which could signal the continuation or reversal of a trend. - Filtering Noise: Lagging indicators help traders filter out short-term market noise. By focusing on longer periods, like a 200-period moving average, traders can avoid being misled by temporary price fluctuations, ensuring they base decisions on potentially more stable trends. Drawbacks and Common Mistakes with Lagging Indicators While lagging indicators can be helpful, they come with limitations that traders should be aware of. - Delayed Signals: Lagging indicators rely on historical data, which means they often confirm trends after they’ve already started. This delay can cause traders to enter or exit positions too late, missing a significant portion of the move. - False Confidence in Trending Markets: Traders might over-rely on lagging indicators during sideways or choppy markets, leading to misleading signals. For example, the MACD might generate false crossovers, causing unnecessary trades in non-trending environments. - Overuse Without Confirmation: A common mistake is using a single lagging indicator without additional tools for confirmation. This can result in trades based solely on outdated data, ignoring real-time market shifts. Combining lagging indicators with leading ones, like the RSI, can help avoid this trap. The Bottom Line Lagging indicators are valuable tools for confirming trends and helping traders make informed decisions based on historical data. While they have their limitations, such as delayed signals, they remain essential for understanding market momentum. Ready to apply these insights to more than 700 live markets? Open an FXOpen account today and start trading on four advanced trading platforms with low costs and rapid execution speeds. FAQ What Is a Lagging Indicator? The lagging indicators definition refers to a tool used in technical analysis that confirms trends based on historical price data. It provides insight into the strength and direction of trends after they’ve already started, helping traders to confirm the momentum. Such indicators are moving averages and the Average Directional Index (ADX). What Are Forward (Leading) vs Lagging Indicators? Forward (leading) indicators attempt to determine future market movements while lagging indicators confirm past trends. Forward indicators, like the stochastic oscillator, signal potential price changes, while lagging indicators, like moving averages, confirm established trends. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1