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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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GBPUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump announced that he would suspend reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for the 70+ countries involved in negotiations, imposing only a 10% reciprocal tariff. He also stated that tariffs on China, which announced retaliatory tariffs, would be raised to 125%. - There is speculation that foreign investors have recently been selling U.S. bonds. Considering that the U.S. 30-year bond yield has risen by around 50 basis points over the past three days, it is expected that Trump may have changed his stance. - The market views these tariff measures as ultimately targeting China, while most other countries are expected to resolve the matter smoothly through negotiations. Key Economic Events This Week + April 10: U.S. March Consumer Price Index (CPI) + April 11: U.K. February GDP, Germany March Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. March Producer Price Index (PPI) GBPUSD Chart Analysis Despite a recent sharp decline, the pair appears to be finding support around the 1.27000 level and is showing signs of recovering previous losses. In the short term, it is expected to continue its upward momentum toward the 1.31000 level. However, given ongoing uncertainties, it’s important to monitor whether the pair can break through the 1.31000 resistance level. In addition, attention should continue to be paid to any changes in Trump’s policy stance.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.2890 1st Support: 1.2693 1st Resistance: 1.3006 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Explosive Breakout Setting Up on GBP/USD – Here's the Roadmap🔥 GBP/USD Technical Analysis – 4H Timeframe | Market Poised for Breakout or Breakdown? Key Support: 1.26888 Key Resistance: 1.28829 Market Structure: Consolidation with bullish undertones Bias: Neutral-to-bullish (pending confirmation) 🧠 Market Overview: The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating within a well-defined horizontal channel on the 4-hour chart, oscillating between 1.26888 (major support) and 1.28829 (key resistance). This prolonged range-bound behavior reflects a market in balance, where buyers and sellers are cautiously awaiting a catalyst to drive the next impulsive move. The price action suggests that this consolidation phase may be coming to an end soon. A breakout or breakdown from this tight range is likely to set the tone for the next major trend. Market participants should be alert to early breakout signals and volume surges as confirmation triggers. 📊 Price Structure and Key Observations: The market has printed a series of higher lows within the consolidation range, indicating a subtle bullish pressure beneath the surface. Price is hovering near the mid-range zone, consolidating after multiple failed breakout attempts at 1.28829. A squeeze in volatility is evident from narrowing candlesticks and declining ATR, often preceding explosive directional moves. 🔍 Technical Indicators Breakdown: ✅ RSI (14): Currently trading around the neutral zone at 50, showing no clear directional bias. However, higher lows on RSI suggest potential bullish divergence forming, which could be an early signal of upward momentum building up. ✅ MACD: A recent bullish crossover below the zero line indicates potential for a shift in momentum. Histogram bars are starting to turn positive, supporting a near-term bullish scenario if price confirms with a breakout. ✅ Moving Averages: Price is trading above the 50-period SMA, which has acted as dynamic support on several occasions. The 200-period SMA remains below current price levels, indicating a medium-term bullish structure remains intact unless support is broken decisively. 🔮 Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Breakout Scenario: If price breaks and closes above 1.28829 on strong bullish volume, it would represent a major breakout from the current range. This could open the door for a new impulsive leg to the upside. Upside Targets: 🎯 1.29650 – Short-term resistance level from previous highs 🎯 1.30300 – Psychological round number and previous supply zone 🎯 1.31000 – Extended target aligned with Fibonacci 1.618 projection Confirmation Factors: Break + retest of 1.28829 as new support RSI holding above 60 MACD expanding positively ❌ Bearish Rejection / Breakdown Scenario: Should the pair fail to break above 1.28829 and print a strong bearish rejection candle (e.g., Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing), the pair could retest the lower support of 1.26888. A clean break below 1.26888 with a decisive bearish close could signal a trend reversal, shifting sentiment toward the downside. Downside Targets: 📉 1.26000 – Near-term psychological support 📉 1.25200 – Previous demand area and key fib level (61.8%) 📉 1.24400 – Long-term trendline support (if applicable) ⚙️ Trade Strategy & Risk Management: Breakout Traders: Wait for a confirmed candle close outside the range (either above 1.28829 or below 1.26888) before entering. Avoid false breakouts by validating with volume and momentum indicators. Range Traders: Continue fading the range boundaries (buy near 1.26888, sell near 1.28829) while the channel remains intact. Use tight stop-losses just beyond the range to mitigate whipsaw risks. Swing Traders: A successful breakout presents excellent risk-reward setups for multi-day trades, especially if accompanied by high volatility and news catalysts (e.g., NFP, BoE/Fed announcements). 🧭 Conclusion: The GBP/USD pair is coiling tightly within a critical decision zone between 1.26888 and 1.28829. The tightening price structure, supportive indicators, and market indecision suggest that a major breakout is imminent. Whether bulls take control or bears force a breakdown will largely depend on macroeconomic catalysts and institutional order flow. Traders are advised to stay patient, let the market reveal its hand, and execute only on high-probability setups with clear confirmations. This is not the time to chase the market—this is the time to prepare for the move. 💬 Let me know in the comments how you're positioning yourself on GBP/USD this week! 🔔 Follow for more real-time setups, macro breakdowns, and professional market insights. 📈 Stay sharp, stay technical. Would you like me to generate a matching TradingView chart snapshot with drawn zones and notes to go with this analysis for posting?
Short
by Saeed966
5
My take on GBPUSD as of 11:23am 4/9/2025Market Insights from Indicators Trend and Movement Directional Indicators: PLUS_DI (25.39) significantly outweighs MINUS_DI (5.54), indicating strong bullish momentum. Directional Movement Index (DX: 64.15) confirms significant trend strength. Aroon Oscillator (71.43) shows a healthy trend with potential upward movement. Moving Averages: EMA (1.3126), KAMA (1.31498), and TEMA (1.31703) remain above the current price, reinforcing a longer-term bearish bias. However, shorter-term indicators like PLUS_DI and ROC suggest consolidation or temporary bullish moves. Momentum and Oscillators: RSI (68.12) reflects a mildly overbought condition, signaling possible resistance to bullish moves. MACD (0.0052) and CMO (36.24) support short-term bullish momentum. Williams %R (-29.19) and CCI (87.28) indicate price nearing resistance levels. Volatility and Price Action ATR (0.00356) suggests low volatility, allowing tighter stop-loss and target levels. Price action is currently testing the support zone at 1.2780–1.2790 and resistance near 1.2830–1.2850. Trend Analysis Short-term momentum shows rising highs and closes, with support from bullish indicators like DX (~64). Long-term bearish bias persists due to EMA, DEMA, and TEMA above the current price. Key Levels: Support: 1.2780–1.2790 (previous hourly lows). Resistance: 1.2830–1.2850 (aligned with recent highs and trend indicators). Directional Indicators and Oscillators: Bullish dominance with PLUS_DI (29.18) outweighing MINUS_DI (12.42). Momentum (MOM ~0.00877) supports short-term bullish opportunities. Stochastic (45.48) and Stochastic RSI (26.07) indicate moderate upward momentum, but not extreme levels yet. Volatility and Risk Indicators True Range (TRANGE ~0.00354) indicates limited hourly price variability. Moving averages like TEMA (1.31703), T3 (1.31303), and WMA (1.31403) reinforce long-term bearish resistance above 1.3140. TSF (1.31757) points to strong resistance near 1.3170. Key Events to Watch April 9, 2025 (Today): USD FOMC Minutes (High Impact): A hawkish tone could strengthen the USD, pushing GBP/USD lower, while a dovish approach may support GBP/USD gains. April 10, 2025 (Tomorrow): USD Inflation Data: Lower CPI or core inflation figures may weaken the USD and favor GBP/USD bullish moves. Jobless Claims: Rising claims could signal labor market weakness, further pressuring the USD. April 11, 2025 (Friday): GBP GDP & Trade Balance: Positive data could strengthen the GBP, aligning with bullish chart patterns. USD PPI & Consumer Sentiment: Higher producer prices or sentiment could support USD recovery. Trading Considerations FOMC Impact: Hawkish minutes may trigger bearish GBP/USD moves, while a dovish tone supports a bullish outlook. Key Levels: Watch 1.2780–1.2790 (support) and 1.2830–1.2850 (resistance) for trading decisions. Volatility Management: ATR (~0.00356) suggests tight stop-losses during high-impact news. My Take Given the bullish technical setup but acknowledging the risk from upcoming high-impact news, I lean toward caution. At this point of my trading career i'm not comfortable with aggressive trading. A well-defined long trade near 1.279–1.280 could be rewarding—but i'm prepared for rapid moves on news releases. Aggressive Option: Enter long around support now with tight stops and target 1.283–1.285, but be very nimble in managing your position amid the news. Conservative Option: Wait for the market to digest the FOMC minutes and inflation data, then look for a confirmed breakout or reversal that aligns with the bullish technical signals. I think ill wait for the news... it's in about 2 hours. see ya then!
Long
by Sel_Ali
GBP/USD Is About to Explode – Here’s Why This Level Matters🚨 GBP/USD at a Critical Zone – Breakout or Reversal? Let’s break down the price action from a technical perspective 👇 📊 Daily Technical Analysis – GBP/USD (April 2025) The GBP/USD pair is trading near a key inflection point, with price action hinting at a potential breakout — or a deeper correction. 📈 Trend Overview: The broader trend remains bullish, following a steady rally from the 1.2300 area back in February. The pair has been forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong underlying demand. However, we’re now seeing signs of bullish exhaustion as the price struggles near the 1.2850 – 1.2900 resistance zone — an area that previously acted as a strong supply level. 🧱 Key Resistance Levels: 1.2850 – 1.2900: Major resistance zone; a daily close above this level would likely accelerate bullish momentum. 1.3000: Psychological round number and the next natural target. 1.3140: Historical swing high from mid-2023, could serve as the next upside objective. 🛡️ Key Support Levels: 1.2680: Previous higher low and potential first line of defense. 1.2520: Strong structural support — a break below this zone may shift the medium-term outlook to neutral or even bearish. 1.2300: February’s key low and the base of the current trend. 📐 Technical Structures: Price appears to be forming an ascending triangle — a classic bullish continuation pattern — with flat resistance at 1.2850 and rising higher lows from below. This supports the idea of an impending breakout if bulls regain control. Additionally, the pair is moving within a rising price channel, offering clean structure for both trend-following and breakout traders. 🧭 Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Breakout: A confirmed close above 1.2900 would likely open the door toward 1.3000, followed by 1.3140. This scenario aligns with the current market structure, assuming continued weakness in the USD or sustained risk appetite. ❌ Bearish Rejection: Failure to break the resistance zone, especially with bearish reversal candles, could trigger a drop toward 1.2680, and possibly 1.2520. A daily close below 1.2520 would be a strong technical warning for bulls. 📌 Conclusion: GBP/USD is sitting at a technically significant level. The prevailing trend favors the bulls, but the outcome at 1.2850–1.2900 will be decisive. Watch price action closely for confirmation — breakout or rejection, the next move could be sharp. 💬 What’s your take on this setup? Do you see a breakout or a reversal ahead? Drop your thoughts in the comments 👇
Short
by Saeed966
GBPUSD Watch – Bearish Momentum Building Below Supply ZoneGBPUSD pair has broken sharply below the long-standing accumulation range between 1.2857 – 1.3012, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The recent bearish engulfing structure has pushed price into a corrective pullback phase, with sellers likely to re-enter on rallies. Key Technical Levels: Current Price: 1.2795 Resistance (Supply Zone): 1.2857 – 1.2863 First Support Target: 1.2688 – 1.2690 Mid-Level Target: 1.2568 – 1.2570 Final Bearish Target: 1.2383 – 1.2390 (demand zone & key support) Trade Scenario: 📉 Bearish Bias: Price is expected to retrace into the supply zone (1.2857–1.2863) and then reject. If resistance holds and structure remains intact, expect continuation toward: TP1: 1.2689 TP2: 1.2568 TP3: 1.2385 🔁 Invalidation Zone: A sustained break and close above 1.2863 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a move toward 1.3012. Technical Confluence: ✅ Previous consolidation turned into a strong resistance zone ✅ Bearish breakout from range ✅ Clean lower highs and lower lows structure ✅ Volume drop on the pullback (likely a corrective move)
Short
by ultreosforex
My Fav Res Forced The Price To Go Down Hard , Will Continue ?As we see , the high area forced teh price to go down as i mentioned in my last analysis post on GBP/USD , It`s now +80 Pips , i closed 50% from my contracts and let he rest running , but do you think it will continue or max 100 pips ? This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Short
by FX_Elite_Club
Sterling Remains Firm Despite Inflationary PressuresGBP/USD traded around 1.2830 on Wednesday, holding gains from the previous session. However, ongoing global trade tensions and fears of goods dumping from China and Europe weighed on sentiment. Though U.S. tariffs are relatively lower on the UK, broader economic concerns persist. At the same time, rising inflation risks may lower expectations for rate cuts, providing some support to the pound. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2850, resistance levels are at 1.2900 and 1.2940. Support is at 1.2715, followed by 1.2650 and 1.2600.
by ChartMage
1
THOUGHTS ON THE GBP/USDGBP/USD 1H - As you can see I have gone ahead and marked out some areas of interest I would like to see price come and clear before a further down move. Once price trades us up and into one of two areas we can begin looking to go short. It is important we are patient and allow price to play out as we want and need it to before we look to take part, allowing price to trade us into said zones, gives us the opportunity to get involved in this market with a more refined entry. We could look to take part in some temporary long positions whilst we prepare to take part in shorts, whilst this is trading against the prevailing trend it is following the current corrective wave. So buying in would hold some risk just as price could realistically flip to the downside at any point should enough supply be introduced into the market.
Short
by Lukegforex
Swing Trading: Unique Features and StrategiesSwing Trading: Unique Features and Strategies Swing trading stands out as a dynamic approach in the trading world, blending elements of both short-term and long-term strategies. In this article, we will explore the unique features of swing trading, including its reliance on technical analysis, the use of chart patterns, and the strategic timing of entries and exits. Whether you're new to trading or seeking to refine your approach, understanding the nuances of swing trading can provide valuable insights into navigating the financial markets. The Basics of Swing Trading Swing trading meaning refers to a style that involves holding short- and medium-term positions - usually from a couple of days to a few weeks - with the aim of capitalising on the “swings” in the market. What is a swing trader? A swing trader’s definition is simple: swing traders are those who typically enter and exit markets at significant support and resistance levels, hoping to capture the bulk of expected moves. These traders tend to look at hourly to weekly charts to guide their entries, although the timeframe used will depend on the swing trader’s individual approach and the asset being traded. Swing trading can be used across all asset classes, from stocks and forex to cryptocurrencies* and commodities. In the stock market, swing trading can be especially effective, as stocks tend to experience high volatility and are subject to frequent news and events that can drive prices. Swing traders predominantly use technical analysis to determine their entries and exits, but fundamental analysis, like comparing the interest rates of two economies, can also play a significant role. It can help determine a price direction over the course of days or weeks. Swing Trading vs Other Styles To better understand the unique features of swing trading, let’s compare it with our styles. Position trading involves holding trades for weeks and months, focusing on capturing long-term trends. Position traders are less concerned with short-term fluctuations and are more likely to use fundamental analysis, such as economic data and company earnings, to make their decisions. This style requires patience and a long-term perspective, with fewer trades but potentially larger returns per trade. Swing trading involves holding trades for several days to a few weeks, aiming to capture short- and medium-term price movements within a larger trend. This style balances the need for active market participation with the flexibility to not monitor trades constantly. Swing traders primarily rely on technical analysis to identify entry and exit points, focusing on chart patterns and indicators. Day trading requires traders to buy and sell assets within the same trading day, often holding positions for just minutes or hours. The goal is to capitalise on intraday price movements, and traders close all positions before the market closes to avoid overnight risk. This style demands constant market monitoring and quick decision-making, with a strong reliance on real-time technical analysis. Scalping is an ultra-short-term trading style where positions are held for seconds to minutes, aiming to make small profits on numerous trades throughout the day. Scalpers rely almost entirely on technical analysis and need to act quickly, often executing dozens or hundreds of trades daily. The focus is on high-frequency trading with very tight stop-losses, requiring intense concentration. Swing Trading: Benefits and Challenges Although swing trading provides numerous opportunities which makes it popular among traders, it comes with a few challenges traders should be aware of. Benefits: - Lower Time Commitment. One of the most significant benefits for swing traders is the reduced time commitment. This style can be adapted to suit a trader’s individual schedule. - Flexibility. It is often more flexible than other styles. Not only does it offer time flexibility, but it allows for a wider range of tools to be used to determine price swings. Also, it can be applied to many assets. The most common is swing trading in forex and swing trading in stocks. - Technical Analysis Focus: Utilises technical indicators and chart patterns to identify entry and exit points, providing clear criteria for decision-making. - More Opportunities Compared to Long-Term Techniques. Because swing traders usually hold positions for a few days to a few weeks, they have the ability to take advantage of shorter-term market movements that might not be reflected in longer-term price trends. Challenges: - Exposure to Overnight Risk. Positions held overnight or over weekends can be affected by unexpected news or events, leading to potential gaps or adverse price movements. - Requires Patience: Effective swing trading requires waiting for trades to develop over days or weeks, which may test a trader's patience. - Market Volatility: Performance can be impacted by periods of low volatility or choppy markets, where price movements may not align with your expectations. Popular Tools to Use When Swing Trading The effectiveness of a swing traders’ strategies will ultimately depend on their ability to correctly identify price movements. For this, traders use different chart patterns and technical indicators. Here are three common tools that can be used as part of a swing trading strategy. Channels Traders can use channels to take advantage of well-identified price trends that play out over days and weeks. To plot a channel, you first need to identify a trending asset that’s moving in a relative zig-zag pattern rather than one with large jumps in price. Traders will often use the channel to open a swing trade in the direction of the trend; in the example above, they might look to buy when the price tests the lower line and take profit when the price touches the upper line of the channel. Moving Averages Moving averages (MAs) are one of the commonly used indicators and they can help swing traders determine the direction of the trend at a glance. The options here are endless: - You could pair fast and slow moving averages and wait for the two to cross; this is known as a moving average crossover. When a shorter MA crosses above a longer one, the price is expected to rise. Conversely, when a shorter MA breaks below a longer one, the price is supposed to decline. - You could stick with one and observe whether the price is above or below its average to gauge the trend. When the price is above the MA, it’s an uptrend; when it’s below the MA, it’s a downtrend. - You could use an MA as a support or resistance level, placing a buy order when the price falls to the MA in an uptrend and a sell order when it rises to the MA in a downtrend. Fibonacci Retracements Lastly, many swing traders look to enter pullbacks in a larger trend. One of the most popular ways to identify entry levels during these pullbacks is the Fibonacci Retracement tool. Traders typically wait for a shift in price direction, then apply the tool to a swing high and swing low. Then, they enter at a pullback, usually to the 0.5 or 0.618 levels, to take advantage of the continuation of the trend. As seen above, this strategy can offer entry points for those looking to get in early before a trend continues. The Bottom Line Swing trading stands out for its ability to balance the demands of active trading with the flexibility of longer-term investing. The unique features of swing trading, such as its moderate holding periods and strategic use of technical indicators, allow traders to potentially manage risk and adapt to various market conditions. Embracing swing trading strategies can help traders refine their approach. As with any trading style, continued learning and disciplined execution are key to achieving consistent results. FAQ What Is Swing Trading? Swing trading is a style that involves holding positions over a period of several days to weeks to take advantage of price movements within a trend. Swing traders use technical analysis, including chart patterns and indicators, to identify potential entry and exit points, balancing the need for active participation with a longer-term perspective. What Is Swing Trading vs Day Trading? Swing trading and day trading are distinct methods. The former focuses on capturing price movements over several days to weeks, allowing for less frequent trading and requiring less constant market monitoring. In contrast, the latter involves buying and selling assets within the same trading day, often holding positions for minutes or hours, and requires continuous market observation and quick decision-making. What Is the Downside of Swing Trading? The downsides of swing trading include exposure to overnight and weekend risks, as positions held outside market hours can be affected by unexpected news or events. Additionally, this method requires patience and discipline, as trades may take time to develop, and performance can be impacted by periods of low volatility or choppy markets. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1