USDGBP trade ideas
GBPUSD – False Breakout Alert at Channel TopOn the D1 timeframe, GBPUSD continues to maintain a clear bullish structure within an ascending price channel, with steadily rising highs and lows.
Currently, price is approaching the resistance zone near 1.35919 — which is the upper boundary of the channel and also a zone that previously saw strong reactions. As illustrated in the chart, a likely scenario is a false breakout above this zone, followed by a pullback towards the support area at 1.33270–1.32500 to retest the EMA34 region.
If this support holds, price could bounce back in line with the upward channel structure, opening the door to the next target zone.
GBPUSD INTRADAY bullish breakoutThe GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit a bullish longer-term trend, underpinned by a series of higher highs and higher lows. However, recent price action shows consolidation within a sideways trading range, suggesting a pause or potential accumulation before the next directional move.
The key technical level to monitor is 1.3400, which aligns with a prior consolidation zone and serves as a critical support area. A corrective pullback towards this level could present a buying opportunity, particularly if price action forms a bullish reversal pattern around this zone. A successful rebound from 1.3400 would likely target resistance levels at 1.3470, followed by 1.3500 and 1.3550 on a longer-term basis.
Conversely, a daily close below 1.3400 would invalidate the current bullish bias and suggest a shift in sentiment. This scenario opens the door for further downside towards the next support at 1.3370, with extended losses potentially reaching 1.3340.
Conclusion:
While the broader trend remains bullish, GBP/USD is currently range-bound. Traders should watch for a reaction around the 1.3400 level. A bounce would reinforce bullish momentum towards 1.3470 and beyond, whereas a confirmed break below this level would signal further weakness and a possible trend shift in the near term.
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GBPUSD WEEKLY PLAN: BOS Breakout Targeting 1.39125The weekly outlook for GBPUSD highlights a clear Break of Structure (BOS) with price pushing above previous resistance. This suggests a bullish continuation scenario may be in play.
📌 Primary scenario:
A short-term pullback to the demand zone near 1.33000 (previous BOS area) is possible.
From there, price could rally toward the first target at 1.37151, and potentially extend toward 1.39125 if momentum remains strong.
⚠️ Watch for a healthy correction before the next leg up. Stay disciplined with your trade management and risk control.
Market next move Current Analysis Summary:
Bullish Outlook: The chart suggests a bullish trend after price moves above a marked support area.
Price Scenarios:
Red arrow: Pullback to support.
Blue arrow: Bounce back upward.
Yellow arrow: Continuation of the bullish trend.
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Disruption of the Analysis:
1. False Breakout Risk:
The move above the support zone might be a false breakout. Volume does not appear significantly increased during the breakout, which is typically needed to confirm real breakout momentum.
2. Volume Confirmation Lacking:
Although some volume is present, the breakout does not show a clear volume spike to validate strong buying interest, which challenges the bullish bias.
3. Resistance Overhead Ignored:
No mention of overhead resistance. The price may face selling pressure near 1.35000, a likely psychological and technical resistance area.
4. Over-reliance on Simple Support Zone:
The support zone is too narrowly defined. If the price dips below it slightly, it could still be a healthy retest, not a reversal, which the red arrow path implies prematurely.
GU-Fri-23/05/25 TDA-Bullish closures, Breakout buy is on!Analysis done directly on the chart
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Cable (GBP/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3395
1st Support: 1.3317
1st Resistance: 1.3565
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GBPUSD Trade Setup – Entry at 1.34708 with Target at 1.27735Entry Point: ~1.34708
Stop Loss Zone: ~1.35734 (roughly 100 pips above entry)
Target Points:
EA Target Point One: 1.31769
EA Final Target Point: 1.27735
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Technical Observations:
1. Price Action:
The price is consolidating below the 1.34708 resistance level.
Multiple failed attempts to break above suggest selling pressure around this zone.
2. Moving Averages:
Two MAs (possibly 50 EMA and 200 EMA) show a recent crossover, potentially indicating a shift in momentum.
3. Bearish Bias:
Based on the annotated targets, the trader anticipates a reversal from the current level.
A drop to 1.27735 represents a 5.09% move from the entry point.
4. Risk-Reward Ratio:
Risk (Entry to Stop Loss): ~100 pips
Reward (Entry to Final TP): ~700+ pips
Risk-reward is highly favorable (~1:7)
Confluence & Support Zones:
1.31769: Previously tested support/resistance level – a logical intermediate target
1.27735: Historical support zone from early March – final bearish target.
Summary:
This setup is a swing short trade with an attractive risk-reward profile.
Confirmation via bearish reversal candlesticks near 1.34708 would strengthen the case.
Watch out for news catalysts or USD data that might impact volatility and invalidate the setup.
GBPUSD at Major Resistance: Will it Drop To 1.33350?FX:GBPUSD is approaching a key resistance level that previously acted as a strong barrier, triggering some significant bearish momentum. This area could be a potential point of interest for those looking for short-selling opportunities. Given its historical importance, how price reacts here could set the tone for the next move.
If bearish signals appear, such as rejection wicks, bearish candlestick patterns, or signs of weakening bullish pressure, I anticipate a move toward the 1.33350 level, which is a reasonable target in this setup. However, a clear breakout above this resistance could challenge the bearish outlook and suggest further upside. This is a key area where price action is likely to provide clearer clues about the next direction.
Just my perspective on support and resistance zones, not financial advice. Always confirm your setup and trade with proper risk management.
GBPUSD Outlook: Eyes on PMI and the Wick ReactionPrice just broke through 1.34 with a wick forming—if that wick holds, I’m expecting a push 40 pips higher toward 1.3438+. This move would align with weaker US PMI data today.
If the market pulls back instead, I’m watching 1.3360 as a strong re-entry zone for buyers to step in again. Let's see how price reacts around the news drop.
GBPUSDHello to all our subscribers!
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe.
Key Points
- U.S. President Trump’s proposed tax cut bill has passed the House of Representatives. In the short term, the market views this as a positive factor for the economy, but in the long term, it is also seen as a negative factor due to the potential increase in the fiscal deficit.
- The Eurozone’s preliminary Services PMI for May came in at 48.9, and the Composite PMI was 49.5, suggesting that private-sector activity is entering a contraction phase.
- The U.K. Office for National Statistics reported that April’s CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year. Service prices increased by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. The market expects the Bank of England to hold interest rates steady at its June and August Monetary Policy Committee meetings.
Key Economic Schedule This Week
+ May 23: Germany Q1 GDP
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
The price has surged past the 1.31500 level and even broken through resistance at the 1.34000 level. There appears to be room for further upward movement, with a potential peak near the 1.35500 level. After this, a reversal to the downside is likely, with a possible decline toward the 1.32000 level.
GBP/USD H1 Analysis – Fibonacci Exhaustion + Bearish DivergencePair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 1-Hour
Technical Tools Used:
• Price Action & Structure
• Fibonacci Extension
• Awesome Oscillator (AO)
⸻
📌 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Price reached 4.236 Fibonacci Exhaustion Level
✅ Clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside
✅ Bearish Divergence spotted on AO
✅ Bearish Targets identified using Fibonacci Extension
⸻
🔍 Market Overview:
GBP/USD recently completed a strong bullish impulse and tapped into the 4.236 Fibonacci exhaustion zone around 1.34686, a level often associated with trend exhaustion.
Following this, a Break of Structure (BOS) was confirmed, signaling potential weakening of bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal.
⸻
📉 Bearish Confluence – AO Divergence:
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirms bearish divergence:
• Price made a higher high.
• AO made a lower high.
This suggests that bullish momentum is fading despite higher price levels — a classic early warning of potential reversal.
⸻
🎯 Fibonacci Extension Take-Profit Zones:
Using the latest swing leg and BOS as the reference, the Fibonacci extension tool reveals several high-probability take-profit zones:
• ✅ TP1: 1.618 Extension @ 1.33770
• ✅ TP2: 2.618 & 2.786 Extensions @ 1.33204 – 1.33051
• 🧊 Extreme Targets: 4.236+ Extensions near 1.32288 and below, if strong bearish momentum continues.
⸻
💡 Trading Plan:
This setup offers a clean bearish opportunity based on:
• Completion of an extended bullish leg
• Break of market structure
• Momentum divergence via AO
• Strong Fibonacci confluence
Bias: Bearish
Trigger: Wait for pullback or retest followed by bearish confirmation (e.g., rejection candle or engulfing pattern).
Risk: As always, use clear stop-loss above recent high and manage risk appropriately.
⸻
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💬 Drop your thoughts or questions below — let’s discuss your setups too!
GBP/USD showing a major bearish target if the trend reverses.Pair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
Platform: TradingView
Indicators Used:
Ghost Pivots
S/R Breaks and Retests (ChartPrime)
2. Key Technical Elements
Entry Zone: Marked near 1.3412, showing the recent push-up toward a potential resistance or breakout level.
Target Zones:
First Target Zone: Marked just above 1.3300, indicating an expected retracement or initial profit-taking area.
Final Target Zone: Located below 1.3200, showing a major bearish target if the trend reverses.
Support & Resistance:
Multiple historical resistance levels are highlighted in red.
Green shaded zones indicate support targets.
Volume Analysis: Noted with volume tags (e.g., “Vol: 54740”), helping assess buying/selling strength.
Trendline: Diagonally drawn trendline labeled at the bottom, showing the broader bullish structure that may be tested on pullbacks.
3. Harmonic or Pattern Recognition
The ABCD and XABCD structure on the left side of the chart suggests harmonic pattern analysis, likely used to predict reversals or extensions.
4. Strategy Indication
This appears to be a bearish short setup:
ENTRY is at a resistance level.
TARGET and FINAL TARGET are significantly lower, implying expectation of a price drop after rejection at current highs.
The user may be planning to short GBP/USD upon confirmation of bearish reversal patterns or candlestick behavior.
5. Other Details
Active indicators and drawing tools are visible on the left sidebar.
Multiple tabs suggest the user is tracking other instruments like Gold (GOLD) and market updates simultaneously.
Bottom panel shows options like Pine Editor and Strategy Tester, hinting the user may also use custom scripts or backtesting strategies.
Bearish drop?GBP/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3442
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3505
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.3318
Why we like it:
There is a support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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GBPUSD: MACD Cross confirms more upsideGBPUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.696, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 36.278) as it's been inside a Channel Up since the start of the year (January 13th 2025 low). At the moment the 1D MA50 is holding and provides the short term support. The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, validating the new bullish wave. We are bullish, aiming for another +3.63% HH rise (TP = 1.3600).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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British PMIs accelerate, retail sales nextIt has been a good week for the British pound, which has gained 1% against the dollar and climbed to levels not seen since Feb. 2022. The pound has rallied for three straight days but is almost unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.3425 in the North American session.
The UK economy has been struggling but don't blame consumers for not spending. Retail sales for April will be released on Friday and the markets are expecting a massive gain of 4.5% y/y. This follows a 2.6% gain in March which was a three-month high. Monthly, retail sales is expected to ease to 0.2% from 0.4%.
UK PMIs showed improvement in May after downward revisions in April. Services PMI rose to 52.3, up from a revised 50.8 in March and above the market estimate of 50.8. The Manufacturing PMI also improved to 52.3, up from a revised 50.2 and above the market estimate of 49.9. This indicates slight growth in business activity and manufacturing.
UK inflation for April was higher than expected, disappointing the Bank of England which wants to deliver additional rate cuts in order to boost the flagging economy. The BoE lowered rates in April by a quarter-point to 4.25% but a June cut is very unlikely after the hot inflation report.
GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3429. Above, there is resistance at 1.3429
1.3410 and 1.3394 are the next support levels
GBPUSD (BUY LIMIT)✅ Strategic Description of the BUY LIMIT Order – GBP/USD
The chart clearly shows a confirmed breakout above the key resistance level at 1.34060, which is now turning into a strong support zone. A BUY LIMIT order placed at this level is technically sound and offers a low-risk entry into the ongoing bullish trend.
🎯 Technical Rationale for the BUY LIMIT
Technical Element Analysis
Entry Zone Previous resistance at 1.34060 now acting as strong support
Trendline (Ascending LTA) Aligns perfectly with the support zone — adds strong confluence
Bullish Structure Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend health
Target Price 1.35700 (projected from the ascending triangle breakout)
Stop-Loss Placement Just below support + trendline at 1.33846
📌 Final Description
The BUY LIMIT at 1.34060 aims to catch the bullish continuation on a clean retest of the broken resistance, now turned support.
This approach offers an optimal entry point with excellent risk-to-reward, aligning with trend structure, price action, and breakout logic.