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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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GBPUSD - Bullish Outlook: Buying the Dips Towards 1.2835 1.2875I’m currently long GBPUSD, targeting the 1.2835 - 1.2875 zone. Technically, the pair is holding above key support areas, and I plan to add to my position on any pullback into these demand zones. The green zones on my chart highlight Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and strong support where buyers have stepped in previously. As long as these levels hold, the bullish momentum remains intact. Yesterday’s speech by President Trump to Congress introduced new uncertainties around tariffs and global trade tensions, particularly targeting China and NAFTA partners. This rhetoric triggered some short-term USD weakness, as the market started pricing in potential trade disruptions and political uncertainty ahead of the elections. For GBPUSD, this translates into a potential continuation higher, especially if the dollar struggles to find clear bullish catalysts in the short term.
Long
by Titan_Pips
US Nonfarm Payroll Report: Market InsightsUS Nonfarm Payroll Report: Market Insights Navigating the complex waves of the financial markets requires an astute understanding of various economic indicators. Among them, the nonfarm payroll report stands out as a pivotal monthly metric that can significantly sway financial markets. This article demystifies the intricacies of this influential report, walking through what to know before trading it. Nonfarm Payroll Definition The nonfarm payroll (NFP) is a key economic barometer that tallies the number of employed individuals in the US, excluding the agricultural sector. Besides the farm workers, government, private household, and nonprofit organisation workers are not included. This nonfarm payroll, meaning the workforce in industries like manufacturing, services, construction, and goods, reflects the health of corporate America and, by extension, the US economy. It’s one of the components of the Employment Situation report released on the first Friday of every month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm employment change data is released along with unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data. Given its encompassing nature, the NFP and its importance to economic vitality makes it a beacon for investors and traders, who see the data as a projection of economic trends and an influencer of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Fluctuations in NFP numbers can cause significant movements in currency, bond, and stock markets. The Nonfarm Payroll Report and Market Volatility The release of NFP figures is a major event on the economic calendar, often triggering heightened market volatility. As nonfarm payroll news hits the wires, traders and investors brace for potential rapid swings in asset prices, particularly in the forex market. The immediate aftermath can see significant fluctuations in currency pairs with the US dollar. The anticipation and reaction to the nonfarm payroll in forex markets exemplify the weight this report carries. Impact of NFP on USD Pairs The nonfarm payroll report has a profound influence on USD pairs. When the NFP data is released, traders immediately compare the figures to market expectations, leading to price adjustments based on how well the actual data aligns with analyst forecasts. The broader trend of NFP data is also important, but it generally takes a backseat compared to actual vs expected figures. For example, if the report indicates stronger-than-expected job growth, the US dollar typically strengthens, especially against currencies like the euro, yen, and pound. A robust employment outlook suggests economic health, potentially raising expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. On the flip side, if the NFP numbers fall short of expectations, the US dollar may weaken, particularly if the data points to economic slowdown or stagnation. In such cases, currencies like the euro or Japanese yen might rise against the dollar, as traders speculate that the Federal Reserve could delay interest rate hikes or even consider easing measures to boost the economy. The NFP report also reverberates through other major currency markets. For instance, currencies in economies closely tied to US trade and investment—such as the Canadian dollar or Mexican peso—may experience volatility as changes in US employment data often reflect shifts in economic demand for their goods and services. The Role of Employment Rates and Wages in Market Sentiment Within the US nonfarm payroll release, two key indicators—unemployment rates and average hourly earnings (month-on-month)—are pivotal in influencing market sentiment. Unemployment Rates The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labour force actively seeking employment but currently without a job. A falling unemployment rate generally signals that more people are finding work, a positive indicator for economic growth. As a result, equities may rally, and the US dollar often strengthens, particularly if the data beats expectations. Traders interpret lower unemployment as a sign of economic resilience, which could influence the Federal Reserve to maintain or tighten monetary policy, further boosting the dollar. Conversely, a rising unemployment rate may signal economic weakness, spurring concerns over reduced consumer spending and slowing economic activity. This could lead investors to shift towards so-called safer assets like bonds or gold. In the forex market, a rising unemployment rate tends to weaken the US dollar as it lowers expectations for interest rate hikes and prompts speculation about potential stimulus or rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further pressuring the dollar and encouraging risk-off sentiment. Average Hourly Earnings Alongside unemployment, average hourly earnings (m/m) is another key metric that traders closely monitor. This indicator tracks changes in wages from one month to the next and offers insight into inflationary trends. When average hourly earnings rise, it can indicate that workers have more disposable income, which can increase consumer spending. Higher wages often fuel concerns about inflation, prompting markets to anticipate interest rate hikes to combat potential overheating in the economy. This expectation typically strengthens the US dollar. However, if average hourly earnings come in below expectations or show signs of stagnation, markets may interpret this as a sign of weaker inflationary pressures. In such cases, traders may anticipate a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially delaying or even reversing interest rate hikes. This can weigh on the US dollar and boost equities. Execution Tactics for the Nonfarm Payroll Report Release On the day the NFP data is released, specific execution tactics tailored to the NFP's unique market footprint can add substantial value. Due to the potential for rapid price movements, traders narrow their focus to liquid markets, like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, to facilitate quick entries and exits. They’ll typically trade on the 1m, 2m, 5m, or 15m charts and often require platforms built with speed in mind. Nonfarm payroll trading involves comparing the actual data against market expectations. The outcomes can typically be categorised as follows, with each scenario influencing forex markets differently: - As Expected: Currency values may experience minimal immediate impact if the report aligns with analyst forecasts, as the anticipated news is already priced into the market. - Better than Expected: A robust report can boost the US dollar, as higher employment rates suggest economic strength, potentially leading to rising interest rates. - Worse than Expected: Conversely, weak employment figures can devalue the US dollar, reflecting economic concerns and pressuring policymakers towards accommodative measures. Given the volatility, many traders prefer limit orders to manage slippage, potentially ensuring they enter the market at predetermined points. Lastly, spreads can widen substantially, inadvertently triggering a stop loss. Some traders choose to set a wider stop loss than normal for this reason. Traders usually monitor not just the headline number but also revisions of previous reports and associated metrics, such as unemployment rate and wage growth, which can influence market sentiment. High-speed news feeds and an economic calendar containing nonfarm payroll dates are employed to access the numbers in real-time, enabling immediate analysis. Analysing Unemployment and Wage Growth Numbers Together with NFP When trading around the nonfarm payroll release, it's essential to look beyond the headline number and integrate unemployment and wage growth data into your analysis. The NFP number alone can drive initial market reactions, but combining it with unemployment and wage growth figures provides a more nuanced view of the economy’s direction. Traders start by comparing the trends across these three metrics. For example, if the NFP report shows strong job creation but unemployment remains stubbornly high, this could indicate that the economy is absorbing a larger labour force, potentially due to discouraged workers returning to job-seeking. This dynamic might lead to a more muted market response, as the overall labour market picture is mixed. On the other hand, rising average hourly earnings alongside strong US nonfarm payrolls often signals not just employment growth but increasing inflationary pressure. If wages grow faster than expected, especially when paired with a low unemployment rate, it could indicate that labour shortages are driving up pay, raising inflation risks and making Federal Reserve action more likely. In this scenario, traders might anticipate a stronger US dollar, as higher interest rates become more probable. To streamline your analysis during nonfarm payrolls, consider the following approach: - Aligning Expectations: Traders compare actual numbers for NFP, unemployment, and wage growth with analyst forecasts. If NFP and wages grow but the unemployment rate falls, the market is likely to favour USD strength, while mixed results can trigger choppier price action as traders digest the implications. - Gauging Momentum: Looking at the broader trend can provide further insight. If unemployment has been trending down and wages are steadily increasing (i.e. an expanding economy), the overall market sentiment may remain bullish even if NFP slightly underperforms. Conversely, if there’s a rising unemployment rate despite decent NFP growth, it could signal that the economy is slowing down. - Assessing Policy Impact: It’s good to know how the Federal Reserve might interpret the combined data. For instance, moderate NFP growth with stagnant wage numbers may not trigger immediate policy shifts, allowing for more accommodative conditions in the near term. However, strong wage growth and low unemployment alongside robust NFP numbers are more likely to prompt a hawkish response. Trading the NFP: A Strategy Traders often consider analytical nonfarm payroll predictions to calibrate their strategies. However, an approach to take advantage of whichever direction the market takes uses an OCO (One Cancels the Other) order. This order straddles the current price range just before the report is released. Such a strategy prepares the trader for movement in either direction, as the NFP release can generate a significant breakout from the prevailing range. According to theory, the strategy unfolds: - An OCO order is placed with one order above the current price range and another below it. This setup positions the trader to catch the initial surge regardless of its direction. - Stop losses might be set on the opposite side of the pre-report range to potentially manage risk. - Profit targets might be established within a four-hour window post-release, aiming for a favourable risk/reward ratio, such as 1:3. - Alternatively, a trailing stop may be utilised, adjusting above or below newly formed swing points to protect potential returns as a trend develops. Such strategies allow traders to potentially capitalise on the new trend direction ushered in by the NFP data. Risk Management When Trading NFP Trading the NFP report often brings heightened volatility, making risk management crucial for protecting capital during these market swings. Below are some key risk management practices often employed when trading the NFP: - Awareness of Spreads: Spreads can widen substantially during NFP releases. This can trigger even wide stop losses; tight stop losses can suffer extreme slippage, where the stop loss execution price differs substantially from the desired price. - Conservative Position Sizing: Some traders take smaller positions when entering pre- and post-NFP release. The increased volatility when the report is released can lead to slippage and greater-than-anticipated losses as a consequence. Likewise, post-release conditions can also be unpredictable if data is mixed. - Avoiding Overtrading: Aim to be selective with trades to avoid chasing price swings in a highly reactive market. It might be preferable to wait for a clear direction to emerge before entering a trade. Comparative Analysis with Other Economic Indicators The NFP report serves as a primary mover in the forex market, but its full value is best understood in concert with other economic indicators. Investors compare its findings with the Consumer Confidence Index for insights into spending trends, as employment health can influence consumer optimism and spending behaviours. Likewise, juxtaposing NFP data against the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures provides a more complete narrative of the economic cycle since higher employment typically signals increased production and economic growth. Additionally, assessing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) alongside NFP numbers can offer insight into inflationary pressures; strong employment data may point to higher inflation, a significant factor in central bank policy decisions. The Bottom Line In closing, learning how to trade nonfarm payroll data today may sharpen your market acumen and create exciting trading opportunities in the future. For those ready to apply these insights when NFP data is released, opening an FXOpen account provides access to over 700 markets, high-speed trade execution, tight spreads from 0.0 pips, and low commissions from $1.50. Happy trading! FAQ What Is NFP and How Does It Work? The NFP meaning refers to the nonfarm payroll report, data that measures the number of jobs added in the US economy, excluding the agricultural sector. Released on the first Friday of every month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP is a key indicator of economic health, affecting currency, bond, and stock markets. How Does Nonfarm Payroll Affect the Stock Market? NFP data can drive stock market volatility. Strong job growth signals economic strength, often boosting equities. Conversely, weak NFP figures may indicate a slowing economy, leading to stock market declines as investors anticipate weaker corporate earnings. What Happens When NFP Increases? An NFP increase suggests robust job growth, typically strengthening the US dollar and stock markets, as investors expect economic expansion and potentially tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Why Is Nonfarm Payroll So Important? An NFP report is crucial because it reflects the overall health of the US labour market and economy. Traders and investors use the data to gauge economic trends, determine Federal Reserve actions, and understand where markets are headed. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Bullish Cable The Weekly Time frame remains bullish until the Weekly Bearish FVG due to the weekly time frame retracement, although the weekly time frame price structure is still bearish, the weakness in Dollar index makes me doubt the Cable Bears. On the Daily time frame, the GBPUSD(Cable) took out a significant recent swing high changing the daily price structure from bearish to bullish, I will now look for support ideas to buy the cable. My point of interest has been indicated on the daily chart
Long
by Forex_Sensei
GBP/USD - 1H Analysis & PredictionGBP/USD - 1H Analysis & Prediction 🔹 Key Levels: ✅ 1.27538 - 1.27115: Demand zones (potential reversal areas). ✅ 1.28401 - 1.28391: Resistance zone (possible liquidity grab). 🚀 Bullish Scenario: 🔹 Price may retrace into 1.27538 or 1.27115 before pushing higher. 🔹 If price respects these levels, a bullish move towards 1.28391 - 1.28401 is likely. 🔹 A clean break above 1.28401 could confirm further upside. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario: 🔹 Failure to hold 1.27115 may trigger further downside towards 1.26797 and beyond. 🔹 Rejection at 1.28391 - 1.28401 could lead to a strong pullback. 💡 Trading Plan: ✅ Look for bullish price action at 1.27538 - 1.27115 for potential long entries. ✅ If price reaches 1.28401, monitor for a breakout or reversal setup. ✅ Manage risk with stop-loss placements below key demand zones. #FXFOREVER #GBPUSD #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #ForexAnalysis #TradingSetup
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
GBP/USD at the Crossroads: Rejection or Breakout? GBP/USD Price just pushed up into a key resistance zone around 1.2775, tapping into that area but showing some hesitation. This level aligns with a previous high and a major trendline rejection, which could signal a potential pullback or even a reversal if sellers step in heavy. The 200-day EMA is sitting slightly above at 1.2784, so we gotta watch how price reacts—either it breaks and holds above for continuation, or we get a clean rejection that sets up a short opportunity. Bearish Setup: If price fails to break and hold above 1.2780, I’ll be looking to sell, targeting 1.2716 first, then potentially down to 1.2505 if momentum kicks in. Confirmation would come with a strong bearish candle or a break back below the previous structure. Bullish Setup: If price breaks and holds above 1.2785 with momentum, then we could be headed for 1.3016 and beyond. I’d be looking for a clean breakout with a retest before jumping in long. 🔥 My Bias? Right now, I’m leaning bearish unless buyers step in aggressively and break that resistance clean. If I see a strong rejection, I’m jumping in for the short ride down.
Short
by SheenaL
GBP/USD bulls to mitigate @1.32500 handle as we start the month with trade wars which the cable possibly will not be part of, optimism has grown around a potential Ukraine peace plan reinforcing Britain’s support. Sterling also has gained strength from the expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden highlighted that persistent wage pressures could keep inflation above target, though he noted future rate cuts may not be gradual. This outlook, combined with geopolitical developments, has boosted investor confidence in the pound and so am hoping for a retest to my fair value price @ 1.27000 handle before the bulls comes in and drives the price to my unmitigated zone 1st Tp @1.32500
Long
by que
GBPUSD H4 | Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.2718, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.2792, a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement. The stop loss is placed at 1.2636, a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
GBPUSD DAILY CHARTSConcise but more likely its just a prediction. See it for yourself, I see an accumulation for almost 30 days, most likely it goes to test the 1.28 zone. Or it will rip lower? what's your idea here! remember this is daily charts. This might take a longer trades. I would rather trade this with 1:2 ratio. the stoploss would be 1.21500. lets see the chart in the next few weeks. are we all back here!? This is not a financial advice, were back on posting. see the other charts/pairs soon. see our gold clear the previous highs! pewpew...keep grinding on fellow traders. still risking the trading for freedom. once you understand it, you don't panick anymore.
Long
by D1GITALTRADES
10
GBPUSD BUY 📊 Technical Analysis & Entry Signal 💹 🔍 The chart shows a strong uptrend where the price has broken a key resistance level and is now pulling back to retest it. As highlighted in the analysis, it's crucial to wait for a complete pullback and confirmation before entering a trade. 📈 Entry Signal: ✅ Entry: After pullback confirmation around 1.27570 🎯 Targets: First Target: 1.27952 Second Target: 1.28269 Third Target: 1.28645 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.27414 (Risk management is essential) 📝 Important Note: Always manage your risk and avoid entering without confirmation. 📉
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
GU Long opportunityFollowing a strong daily close above the resistance level, a buy-side imbalance and sell-side inefficiency(FVG) have been observed on the 4 hour chart. 1. As long as the price holds above the flipped resistance-turned-support level, the likelihood of a breakout above the trendline increases. 2. A successful breakout could propel the price towards higher resistance levels, as marked on the chart. PS: - This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. - Always apply good risk management practices to your trading decisions.
Long
by phoenixwicks9
GBP/USD Trade Setup: Long### **📢 GBP/USD Trade Setup: Long Entry at 1.27300 🚀** GBP/USD is showing a **bullish setup**, supported by the **EMA50 trend** and **key support at 1.27100**. --- ### **🔹 Trade Details:** ✅ **Entry:** **1.27300** (Buy) ✅ **Target (TP):** **1.28300** (+100 pips) ✅ **Stop Loss:** **1.26800** (-50 pips) ✅ **Support Level:** **1.27100** --- ### **🔹 Trading Plan & Risk Management:** 🔸 If GBP/USD stays **above 1.27100**, bullish momentum could push it toward **1.28300**. 🔸 **Set stop loss at 1.26800** to protect against downside risk. 🔸 **Secure partial profits** or **set a break-even point** as price moves in your favor. 📈 **Trade wisely, manage your risk, and stay disciplined! 🚀**
Long
by TradingStar090
GBPUSD - Bullish Continuation Toward 1.27710OANDA:GBPUSD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price action respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bounce off support suggests buyers are maintaining control, supporting a potential continuation of the uptrend. As long as the price remains above the support level and the channel's lower boundary holds, the bullish structure remains intact. A potential upside target is 1.27710, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. A break and close above this level could signal further bullish momentum. However, a breakdown below the support zone would invalidate the bullish scenario and may open the door for a deeper pullback. Remember, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Long
by TrendDiva
6
Potential bearish reversal?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.2793 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 1.2863 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 1.2674 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
GBPUSD BUTGBPUSD in an uptrend on a higher timeframe. Entered a BUY earlier with 1:3RR on a pullback, there was a Pin Bar candle rejected at 0.5 Fib Level. My SL right now just right below the Strong Bullish Candle. (about 1/2 of my initial risk) For those who are already in a BUY position and looking for a Take Profit level... around 1.277 seems like a good area. It also aligns with 1.272 Fib level. Manage your trade well and Best of LUCK! Sorry, wasn't able to published at the entry point...
Long
by JamesB_Trading
1
GBP/USD IS GOING TO MELT !!!!!!!!! GBP/USD Daily analysis ------------------------------ Our sells unfortunately got smoked. Do I think she will drop? Maybe, but for me I have no other entries for the bears and selling on my end is done. These current bears should (theoretically) push price down but we shall see. It seems like the sellers want a cheaper selling point, hence the bulls pushing price high and higher. But for me those were my last bearish plays. I will be now only focused on the bulls to end the week strong. Regards, MR.OAZB
Short
by MROAZB