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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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UK retail sales jump, British pound steadyThe British pound has steadied on Friday against the US Dollar after climbing 0.6% a day earlier.  GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655 in the European session, down 0.1% on the day. Retail sales in the UK sparkled in January, climbing 1.7% m/m.  The reading crushed the market estimate of 0.3% and bounced back from an upwardly revised -0.6% in December.  This was the fastest pace since May 2024 and was largely driven by a sharp increase in food store sales.  Annually, retail sales climbed 1%, down from 2.8% in December but above the market estimate of 0.6%. UK consumer confidence remains low, but there was a slight improvement in February. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to -20 from -22, above the market estimate of -22.  Consumers were less pessimistic about economic conditions, which may have resulted from the Bank of  England's rate cut last month.  Still, consumer confidence is mired in negative territory, as consumers are in a sour mood. The UK economy barely registered any growth in the second half of 2024 and the BoE cut in half its forecast for economic growth in 2025.  Meanwhile, inflation is moving the wrong way.  In January, CPI surprised to the upside and hit 3%, a ten-month high.  Low growth and high inflation has policymakers concerned about stagflation, which could cause significant damage to the economy. UK PMIs for February were a mixed bag. Manufacturing PMI ease to 46.4, down from 48.3 in January and shy of the market estimate of 48.4. It was the lowest level since Dec. 2023 as output and employment levels declined. The services sector is in better shape and the PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.8, indicating weak expansion. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2637.  Below, there is support at 1.2602 1.2705 and 1.2740 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBPUSD higher on dovish BoE’s expectationsThe GBPUSD currency pair intraday price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The initial spike higher was triggered by the release of Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending. Retail sales rose at 1.7% in the month after contracting by 0.6% in December, revised lower from -0.3%. Todays data is beating the economists expectation, moderate 0.3%. Upbeat Retail Sales data is influencing the traders to further pare their bets on the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates again in the March meeting. The key trading level is at 1.2517, the 05th Feb ‘25 swing high. A corrective pullback from the current overbought levels could target the downside support at 1.2517. A bullish bounceback from the rising support at 1.2517 could target resistance at 1.2700 followed by 1.2800 followed by 1.2820 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 1.2517support and a daily close above that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for further retracements and a retest of 1.2450 support level followed by 1.2400. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
$GBPUSD Potential Retracement Following Symmetrical AB=CDPEPPERSTONE:USDCAD The pound has just completed the AB=CD pattern on the 4-hour chart, precisely at 1.2671, a level I highlighted back on February 13. With this textbook pattern now fulfilled, a retracement could be in play, potentially sending the pair lower toward key Fibonacci retracement zones below 1.2541. This move also aligns with a possible retest of the broken daily fractal resistance at 1.2550 , a level that played a key role earlier this week. If sellers step in with conviction, the cable could face a broader pullback, but sustained downside pressure will depend on the market’s reaction at these critical support levels. 📉 Key Technical Takeaways: ✅ AB=CD pattern completed at 1.2671, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. 🔄 Possible retracement targeting Fibonacci levels below 1.2541. ⚠️ 1.2550 daily fractal resistance, which was broken earlier this week, could be retested as new support or fail to hold. Will GBP/USD follow through with a correction, or will buyers defend these zones? Let’s see how this plays out! Drop your thoughts below. 👇 Happy Trading, André Cardoso Risk Warning: Trading financial assets carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. Make sure to fully understand the risks involved before you start trading and carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. The data and information provided in this content do not constitute financial or investment advice and should not be considered as such. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and be aware of the risks associated with trading financial assets.
Short
by Andre_Cardoso
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 21, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair declined after hitting a two-month high of 1.26740 on Friday and was trading near 1.26700 at the time of writing during the Asian session. However, the pair strengthened as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 219,000 in the week ended February 14, above the expected 215,000. Jobless claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just below the forecast of 1.87 million. Additionally, GBP/USD rose amid improving market sentiment after US President Donald Trump signaled potential progress in trade talks with China, easing market fears over tariffs. On Thursday, Fed chief Adriana Kugler said U.S. inflation still has “some way to go” before it reaches its 2% target, acknowledging uncertainty in the future, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem emphasized the potential risks of stagflation and rising inflation expectations. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic left open the possibility of two rate cuts this year depending on economic conditions. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.26700, SL 1.27300, TP 1.25600
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD - 1H Analysis & Trade Plan📊 GBP/USD - 1H Analysis & Trade Plan 🔹 Market Structure: ✅ Break of Structure (BOS) indicates a bullish continuation. ✅ Change of Character (ChoCH) highlights possible reversals. ✅ Fair Value Gaps (FVG) suggest imbalance zones for potential price reactions. 🔹 Key Levels: ✅ Support Zones: 1.26292 - 1.26413, 1.25263 - 1.25432, 1.24539 - 1.24691 ✅ Fibonacci Levels: 0.382 (1.2641), 0.5 (1.2631), 0.618 (1.2618), 0.705 (1.2614), 0.786 (1.2607) ✅ Major Resistance: 1.27533 (Potential TP Zone) 📌 Trade Idea: 🔹 Bullish bias remains strong as long as 1.26292 - 1.26413 holds. 🔹 A retracement into the FVG zone could offer a buying opportunity for a push toward 1.27533. 🔹 If price breaks below 1.25263, further downside to 1.24539 is likely. #FXFOREVER #GBPUSD #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #BOS #FVG #PriceAction
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
Heading into overlap reistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support. Pivot: 1.2719 1st Support: 1.2574 1st Resistance: 1.2812 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.2717, an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.2624, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 1.2810, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD InsightWelcome, Subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on X (Twitter) that he had a productive discussion with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg. - U.S. weekly initial jobless claims came in at 219,000, exceeding the market forecast of 215,000. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that it is premature to increase the proportion of long-term bonds while noting that tariffs have already been partially factored into the dollar. - Maroš Šefčovič, the EU Executive Vice President for Trade and Economic Security, stated that the U.S. is open to discussing all aspects related to tariffs. - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, expects two 25bp rate cuts this year but acknowledged the presence of multiple variables. Key Economic Events This Week + February 21: U.S. February Manufacturing PMI, U.S. February Services PMI GBPUSD Chart Analysis After breaking through the 1.25000 level, GBPUSD surged toward the anticipated resistance zone around 1.27000. It has since retreated to 1.25000, where it is expected to determine its next direction. However, if the pair manages to break above 1.27000, significant upside potential could open up, with the 1.31000 level emerging as a strong target.
Short
by shawntime_academy
GBPUSD SELLING MODE OPPORTUNITY FULL OF FALL ASLEEP 1. Resistance May Not Hold The analysis assumes the resistance zone is strong and will lead to a reversal. However, if bullish momentum continues, there could be a breakout above resistance instead of rejection. A breakout above 1.2680 could invalidate the bearish outlook. 2. Trendline Breakout Is Not Always Reliable While the breakout from the support area led to a strong uptrend, it doesn't guarantee a reversal at resistance. Sometimes, price consolidates and continues higher rather than reversing sharply. 3. Liquidity Grab Possibility The price could fake a drop below support, trapping sellers, before reversing higher. The marked "selling zone" might be a liquidity area where big players accumulate positions before a breakout. 4. Fundamental Factors Can Change Direction News events, interest rate decisions, or economic reports can disrupt technical patterns. A major announcement favoring GBP could push the price higher instead of following the predicted bearish move. Alternative Outlook If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2680, it could invalidate the bearish setup and target 1.2720+ instead of dropping. Instead of expecting a hard rejection at resistance, traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a fake breakout before making a decision.
Long
by Fx_Oliviaa