Get started

U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDGBP trade ideas

GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025) 1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates) Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) . Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential: 4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0% The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral. 2. 10-Year Bond Yields UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) . Yield Spread: 4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26% The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage. 3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis). Drivers: Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD. BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP . 4. Carry Trade Directional Bias GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP. Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand. Risks: BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread. Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD. Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing. Key Data and Events US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates. Summary Table Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD) Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51% Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) — Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.) DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support) Conclusion Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD. Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains. DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts. Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts. GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade . stay cautious #GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
by Shavyfxhub
GBP/USD – Major Rejection Incoming? Smart Money Zone in Play!GBP/USD has tapped into a key weekly supply zone (1.3510 – 1.3550) where we previously saw heavy institutional selling. Price has shown signs of stalling after a strong bullish run. 🔹 We're sitting at a high-volume node with diminishing bullish momentum. 🔹 Upcoming USD news events (3 red icons below) could bring the volatility needed for a sharp reaction. --- 🔥 Key Price Levels 🔵 Supply Zone: 1.3510 – 1.3550 → Currently reacting 🔵 First Support: 1.2845 → Previous demand, now a possible bounce zone 🟠 Major Demand Zone: 1.2332 – 1.2470 → Where the March rally started Red arrows show possible path of a deeper correction if the bulls lose control. --- 🧠 Smart Money POV This could be a classic distribution zone before a deeper retracement. Price swept liquidity above previous highs — a typical trap before a reversal. If this level holds, expect a potential bearish drop toward 1.2845 and beyond. --- 💡 Trade Setup (For Study/Backtesting) > Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal Play 📍 Entry: 1.3530 – 1.3550 🎯 TP1: 1.2845 🎯 TP2: 1.2470 ❌ SL: 1.3585+ > Scenario 2: Breakout Play 🔁 Wait for strong 4H close above 1.3560 🎯 Target: 1.3700+ ❌ SL: Below 1.3510 --- 🧨 Event Risk Alert Heavy USD news ahead. Be prepared for fakeouts or aggressive moves during high-impact announcements. --- 💬 Do you think GBPUSD has topped out or is this just a pause before the next leg up? 🧠 Comment below & let’s discuss setups. 👍 Like & Follow for more Smart Money price action charts!
Short
by FrankFx14
GBP/USD Bullish Channel Holding–Pullback Before the Next Leg Up?This is a 4-hour chart of the British Pound vs US Dollar (GBP/USD) from FXCM, showing a strong bullish market structure within a rising parallel channel. 🔍 Key Technical Insights: Uptrend Channel: Price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows within a well-defined ascending channel. Support Zones: Three horizontal levels are marked at 1.348, 1.333, and 1.326 — likely acting as short-term demand zones or reaction points. Projection Path (Red Line): A pullback into the lower part of the channel (likely near 1.333–1.326 zone) is anticipated, followed by a bullish continuation toward the upper channel resistance. 🧭 Market Outlook: Bias: Bullish while above channel support. Buy Area: Ideal long setup may develop around the 1.333–1.326 support region. Target Zone: Potential continuation toward 1.410+ if the structure holds. This chart favors trend continuation after a correction, aligning with smart money accumulation and institutional flow behavior within a bullish channel.
Long
by Ttrade-With-Logic
GBP/USD – 1H Chart | Fibonacci-Based Bullish SetupWe’ve identified a bullish opportunity on GBP/USD using the Fibonacci technique. After confirming support near the retracement zone, price action is showing bullish continuation signs. Based on this, we are executing an instant buy trade with the following stats: 🔹 Pair: GBP/USD 🔹 Timeframe: 1H 🔹 Trend: Bullish (Fibonacci Technique) 🔹 Entry: Instant Buy @ 1.34699 🔹 Stop Loss: 1.34097 🔹 Take Profit 1: 1.35301 🔹 Take Profit 2: 1.35903 🔹 Lot Size: 0.17 🔹 Risk/Reward: 1:1 & 1:2 🔹 Risk: $200 🔹 Reward: $300 📊 Using Fibonacci retracement and price action confirmation for setup validation. #GBPUSD #ForexTrading #FibonacciTrading #BullishSetup #RiskReward #TradingPlan #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrader #TradeSmart #ForexSignals #1HChart #BuySetup #ForexStrategy
Long
by asimafridi
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3536 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3510 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3590 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
GBPUSD – Is the Recovery Losing Steam? GBPUSD – Is the Recovery Losing Steam? Watch for Technical Pullback Ahead of NFP The GBPUSD pair has recently rebounded impressively from the 1.3427 key support zone, reflecting short-term USD weakness and growing speculation of rate cuts by the Fed. However, after the strong bullish move, the market is now showing signs of exhaustion and potential profit-taking—especially with high-impact US employment data just around the corner. 🔍 Macro & Fundamental Overview: United States: All eyes are on this week’s JOLTS and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reports. Weak jobs data could strengthen the case for rate cuts by the Fed in Q3, weighing on the US Dollar. On the flip side, a solid print would revive “higher for longer” rate expectations and likely support USD strength. United Kingdom: Although inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target, political uncertainty ahead of July’s general election may keep GBP on the defensive, especially if BoE signals a dovish turn. Bond Yield Spread (UK vs US): A widening spread in favor of the USD is exerting downward pressure on GBPUSD in the medium term. 📈 Technical Outlook (H1 Chart): Structure: Price has formed a double-top pattern at 1.35598 and 1.35322, with multiple rejections—signaling a weakening bullish momentum after a sustained rally. EMA 13 – 34 – 89 – 200 Setup: Price is currently testing the EMA89 zone (~1.34854). A clean break below this moving average could accelerate the downside correction. FVG Zone (Liquidity Pool): The 1.3427 – 1.3457 area offers a potential liquidity sweep and may serve as a springboard for the next bullish leg. 📊 Trade Scenarios: 🔻 Short-Term SELL SCALP: Entry: 1.3532 – 1.3545 Stop Loss: 1.3565 Take Profit: 1.3485 → 1.3457 → 1.3427 → Ideal if price fails to hold above recent highs and forms bearish rejection candles. 🔵 BUY ZONE Setup: Entry: 1.3427 – 1.3440 Stop Loss: 1.3400 Take Profit: 1.3475 → 1.3505 → 1.3535 → 1.3555 → High-probability entry if price reacts positively to the FVG zone and maintains bullish structure. 📌 Final Thoughts: GBPUSD is currently in a delicate zone where both technical and macro forces are converging. While the broader trend remains bullish, momentum is slowing. With critical US jobs data due, traders should stay cautious and rely on clear confirmations around key price levels. Maintain strict risk management and look for liquidity-driven moves around FVG zones.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025) 1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates) Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) . Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential: 4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0% The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral. 2. 10-Year Bond Yields UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) . Yield Spread: 4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26% The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage. 3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis). Drivers: Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD. BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP . 4. Carry Trade Directional Bias GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP. Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand. Risks: BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread. Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD. Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing. Key Data and Events US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates. Summary Table Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD) Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51% Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) — Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.) DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support) Conclusion Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD. Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains. DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts. Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts. GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade . stay cautious #GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers! Feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Please don't forget to boost and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell via Truth Social, saying, “Powell is acting too slowly and should cut rates.” - The U.S. Services PMI for May came in at 49.9, signaling a contraction in the sector following a similar downturn in manufacturing. - The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which evaluates regional economic activity, noted that “all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitancy and caution in decision-making by businesses and households.” - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that if inflation in the U.K. is seen falling below the 2% target, the central bank may pursue more aggressive rate cuts. Key Economic Events This Week + June 5: ECB Interest Rate Decision + June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (May), U.S. Unemployment Rate (May) GBPUSD Chart Analysis The pair is currently approaching resistance near the 1.36000 level. Future direction will largely depend on price action at this zone. - A successful breakout above 1.36000 could open the path to a long-term rally toward 1.40000. - Failure to break resistance may lead to a medium-to-long-term decline toward 1.32000.
by shawntime_academy
GBPUSD SHORTCurrently in a supply zone whihc has remained unmitigated since Aug 22. Waiting on 1h break of structure to the downside from current position. We have had a double top on the 4H chart as shown on image. Once price action has broken structure to the downside on the 1H chart, I will look to take a short. Depending on length of hold I will look first to target the demand marked around the 1.33 zone but there is potential to ride this all the way down to 1.28607 depending on the market. Will be trailing my stop so that we can take as much of this as is possible within risk parameters. TRADE - SHORT : Entry TBC SL : 1.35936 TP : 1.28607 (managed)
Short
by craiguu1z1
GBPUSD INTRADAY Consolidation breakout The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bullish sentiment, supported by a rising trendline and sustained higher lows. The recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback within an overall uptrend, indicative of a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. Key Support Level: 1.3400 This level aligns with a previous consolidation zone and is acting as a pivotal support. A pullback toward this level could offer a potential buying opportunity, especially if bullish momentum returns. Upside Targets (on bullish continuation from 1.3400): 1.3515 – Initial resistance from prior swing high 1.3580 – Intermediate resistance level 1.3630 – Long-term target and potential top of the current bullish channel Bearish Scenario (if 1.3400 fails): A daily close below 1.3400 would invalidate the current bullish setup, signaling a potential shift in trend. In that case: Immediate support at 1.3360 Deeper retracement could extend to 1.3310 Conclusion The broader trend in GBP/USD remains bullish, with the current consolidation viewed as a potential pullback rather than a reversal. The 1.3400 level is critical — a bounce from here could resume the uptrend toward 1.3630 over time. However, a break and close below 1.3400 would weaken the bullish case and open the door to further downside. Traders should monitor price action closely around this key level for confirmation. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Market next target 🔍 Original Analysis Summary: Bearish Outlook: Price is expected to decline from the recent high. Support Level: Identified near 1.34400. Target Zone: Around 1.34200 based on breakdown expectations. Reasoning: Possibly based on rejection near resistance and anticipation of bearish follow-through. --- ⚠️ Disruption (Bullish/Neutral Counter-Scenario): 1. Strong Bullish Candle at Resistance The last candle is a bullish engulfing near recent highs, indicating buyer strength. Rather than rejecting, price appears to break out of consolidation. --- 2. Volume Supporting Bullish Momentum Increasing green volume bars show accumulating demand, not weakness. Could imply a liquidity grab before a bullish continuation. --- 3. Failed Breakdown Attempts Price has attempted to fall multiple times (wicks downward), but was bought up quickly. That often signals trap setups where short sellers are being baited. --- 4. Macro Sentiment / USD Weakness Risk With upcoming U.S. economic news (red circle), any sign of a weaker USD could invalidate the bearish scenario entirely. GBP tends to benefit from any shift in U.S. interest rate expectations or economic softness.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Cable touches fresh three-year highs above $1.36Cable’s long uptrend, lasting since the start of the year, has continued in June so far with the price reaching a new high on 5 June. Relative political stability in Britain can be contrasted with the USA’s chaotic implementation of new tariffs and friction in the governing Republican party over the tax and spending bill. The uptrend is quite mature and the price currently overbought while, as for many other major pairs, volume and ATR have declined significantly and Bollinger Bands contracted since April. The obvious long-term target is the area of the 100% monthly Fibonacci retracement, 2021’s high, but even if the uptrend continues that far it’s likely to take a long time for the price to reach this area. The 50 SMA from Bands is slightly below $1.34, so this seems like a possibly significant support in the short to medium term as both a static and dynamic area. The Fed and BoE will meet on consecutive days on 18 and 19 June, so volatility around then is likely to increase sharply and, depending on the bankers’ comments, it might become clearer whether to expect continuation or consolidation. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Sterling headed towards 1.40 in coming days.Cable been on a uptrend since the Liz Truss low. Latest bout of dollar weakness obviously helping whilst long term monthly chart is very constructive indicating new uptrend is fully intact. Other supporting narrative is the new "growth" aware labour government that has begun to forge something of a return to Europe along with new trade deals with India and the USA. Many traders and PMs also aware that the British Pound has a long relatively stable history whilst the Bank of England has not defaulted on its Gilts which have been reliably paid for more than 400 years. recent previous resistance on light blue line now acting as support. Sit tight cable has plenty of upside from here.
Long
by behr100
The Day AheadKey Economic Data Releases United States ISM Manufacturing Index (May) A leading indicator for the economy. A stronger-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and raise Treasury yields. Construction Spending (April) Tracks activity in the construction sector, useful for GDP estimates. United Kingdom Net Consumer Credit & M4 Money Supply (April) Provides insights into consumer borrowing and monetary conditions. Could impact expectations for Bank of England rate policy. Japan Q1 MoF Corporate Survey Gives details on corporate investment and sentiment. Relevant for the yen and Bank of Japan policy expectations. Italy Manufacturing PMI (May) A reading below 50 suggests contraction. Important for eurozone growth outlook and Italian asset risk premiums. New Car Registrations Measures consumer demand; useful for sentiment tracking. Budget Balance Signals fiscal stance; could influence bond spreads versus German bunds. Canada Manufacturing PMI (May) A forward-looking business condition indicator. Could influence the Canadian dollar, especially if divergent from the US PMI. Switzerland Q1 GDP Market will watch for economic resilience or slowdown. May influence Swiss franc and SNB expectations. Central Bank Speakers Federal Reserve Jerome Powell (Chair) Christopher Waller (Governor) Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President) Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President) Market Focus: Any remarks on inflation persistence, growth outlook, or timing of potential rate cuts could impact the USD, equity futures, and front-end yields. Waller and Logan are particularly market-sensitive. Bank of England Catherine Mann (MPC Member) Market Focus: A known hawk—her comments on inflation and rate cut timing could influence sterling and UK short-term rates. Trading Implications The US ISM manufacturing index is the most market-sensitive data point of the day. Fed speakers could significantly affect interest rate expectations and USD. UK and Japan data will influence BoE and BoJ rate path expectations, impacting GBP and JPY. Risk assets may react to broad manufacturing PMI trends and any hawkish/dovish surprises from central bankers. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation