USDINR trade ideas
TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR RBITake a look how we navigated you correctly about USDINR!
The well-respected Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been active in fx markets.
This gives us a flashback to Turkey's Central Bank, when they sold fx reserves to keep the currency. We all know that it ended badly and things usually escalate fast.
Keep your eyes on USDINR, as we expect it will soon break out.
USDINR price forecast until April 2024 USD will correct towards the range of 82.1-82.5 until the end of November 2023.
In the last week of November look for reversal patterns and rise towards 83.13 with possible top at 83.54 in January 2024.
This will be followed by a healthy correction and successful retest of 83 at the end of February 2024.
A breakout of 83.54 is expected to happen in the first half of April 2024.
USDINR: Watch closely for an insane 2024 rally.USDINR is trading inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1W timeframe, with the 1W technical outlook constantly bullish (RSI = 59.515, MACD = 0.267, ADX = 38.795). This is despite 8 failed attempts in the last 9 weeks to close a 1W candle over the top of the Ascending Triangle, which on any other occasion would be considered a sign of weakness. With the 1W MACD on a Bullish Cross though and the whole pattern supported by the 1W MA50 in July, we expect a bullish breakout to take place soon.
The chart on the right which is on the 1M timeframe shows the incredible upside potential of the pair every time it breaks out. If we get the candle close we want, look for a buy and at least a +12.60% rise (TP = 92.000).
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COULD INDIA BE THE SAVIOR OF THE USDโS DOMINANCE?COULD INDIA BE THE SAVIOR OF THE USDโS DOMINANCE?
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Indiaโs rapidly growing economy has led to speculations about its potential role in this shift.
Despite being a BRICS member, India maintains strong economic ties with the U.S.
In the dynamic landscape of global finance, where the BRICS alliance is sharpening its talons, aiming at the soft underbelly of the US dollarโs supremacy, India emerges as a beacon of hope for the greenback.
While the BRICS coalition might assume they have the unwavering support of all its members in their quest to topple the dollar, Indiaโs economic trajectory and diplomatic allegiances paint a different picture.
USDINR Stuck in a Triangle. Trade the break-out.The USDINR pair is trading inside a 1.5 month Triangle (blue), following the upward break-out of the 1 year Ascending Triangle. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting for 2 months and as long as it holds, buy when the price breaks above Resistance 1 (83.4200). The target can be 84.500, representing a +2.13% leg extension on a potential emerging Channel Up. If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will sell instead and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 82.4500, which is marginally above Support 2.
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Swing trade during the FOMC meetingThe swing in 4H time frame is still in the impulse wave of the daily swing.
The impulse of the 4H time frame swing has started(DB neckline breakout level 83.2500)
Caution :: FOMC meeting on 20 Sep'23 11:30PM IST and the current market price is at the weekly resistance of the ascending triangle pattern.
What to expect in FOMC meeting on 19/20 Sep'23The market looks bullish in daily time frame.
The FOMC meeting on 19/20 Sep'23 is expected the pause the interest rate at 5.50%, which keeps the USDINR less volatile. If the interest rate is increased USDINR will be bullish.
There is 3 more trading sessions to decide the direction.
www.federalreserve.gov
www.forexfactory.com
www.nseindia.com
Range bound in 4H time frameDaily time frame took a support at the weekly support(Ascending triangle pattern).
4H timeframe the market is in range bound. The range bound has broke out, aggressive traders can consider to enter the marker, conservative traders may wait for the re-test and consider the swing.
POSITIVE MOOD FROM MOON LANDING SAVED INDIAN RUPEE, FOR NOWWe love sentimental trade ideas. There is nothing better trade than those stemming purely from sentiments. We shared timely long USDINR pair and we have attached the link below.
The positive sentiments from Moon landing drove INR higher yet on macro level, this changes NOTHING .
Congratulations to India and all Indians!
-Signalwyse Team
What's the next move ?The CMP(current market price) is at weekly resistance zone.
Below scenarios can happen:
1. Bear :: If a daily candle closes below 82.5920, advisable not to enter the market as the triangle is about to converge leading to triangle breakout & also the Risk: Reward ratio would be small.
2. Bull :: If a weekly closes above 83.2850, this is a ascending triangle breakout. The target for the weekly breakout will be 86.7317. This target will take time to reach.
Best advisable to add 1 or 2 lots in far out of the expiry(like 3 or 6 months far expiry after the breakout)