Breakout Projection and Quarterly PivotsUSDISK Daily Chart. Heikenashi Candles. Round Levels.
For Educational Purposes Only.
USDISK trade ideas
USDISK Outlook: New Uptrend, Key LevelsWhat is happening to Icelandic Krona? It is obvious that ISK, just as EUR, had been effected by the political and economic instabilities in Europe. ISK mirrrors EUR to a great extent. The key factor was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Russian attempts to intimidate EU Energy Market and overall proximity to Europe as Iceland is the member of European Economic Area. That is where most of its imports come from as well. But unlike EUR, ISK has a history of volatile past and its past volatility and instable behaviour effects the current situation. Also consider that the USDISK monthly downtrend had been broken in February 2021, long before the war and the key factor for that was COVID and decline in tourism sector (major revenue source for the governement). Revival in tourism may stabilize the krona and keep it under 150.
At the moment the major resistance is at 150. That level had been already pierced recently. The more the level is tested and pierced the less signifcant it becomes. Price is in rapid move right now and it may push higher establising a new high. Price may of course fail at 150 and the uptrend may lose steam.
Feel free to use this chart for further ISK tendency evaluations.
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
USD/ISK: Signs of buyer exhaustionIceland Krona's exchange rate (ISK) as represented by USD/ISK’S higher highs is accompanied by lower highs on thee 14-day RSI. Stochastic too is about to produce a bear cross in the overbought territory.
Put simply, rally looks overstretched and due for a pullback…
Global trend brokenUSDISK shows disturbing development by moving into unchratered zone. Now we have only the one resistance level left. There is a hope of reversal there.
USDISK´s ABC correction?So far, as for 24.11.18 USDISK rapid rise was hold by 0.61 Fibonacci retracement which is a great sign. It has been hovering below that level for days. We had a fine 1-5 Elliot waves cycle on monthly and what we are seeing now is very likely to be ABC correction of that cycle. Usually, ABC correction retraces to 0.61 level. If current month (we have 7 days left) closes below that level, the next months, we should see a drop down along the Ichimoku cloud. If November candle closes above 0.61 level, it will be very disturbing for Iceland´s economy, as ISK´s devaluation will continue.
Two possible scenariosIcelandic krona reached a critical level. It formed a classic double bottom (bullish reversal pattern) on monthly. By double bottom rules it should hit 119 (height of double bottom projected from upper double bottom neckline) pretty soon. There we also have Ichimoku cloud resistance, RSI trendline and Gann (Fibonacci) angle as you see. So 120 is critical level. Here it should turn down as future cloud is bearish. If price doesnt reverse there and breaks through RSI trendline, then its very likely to break through Kumo cloud (which is not very thick there as you see) resistance. If price hits 134 thats it, it will shoot to 193 (the height of bullish flag pole, by flag pole rules). If it turns at 120 then it will be dropping to 98-96 until 2022 from where it will shoot up anyway (or will be going in range channel btw 98-110 if Iceland's economics gets really strong). Though, I simply dont believe in Icelandic krona's stability that it will move in narrow ranges. ISK has bad history and has always been as volatile as Turkish lira. It never moved in tight ranges. So expect a bitcoinish volatility! It would be best if they would peg it to EUR or would simple "delete" it by replace it with EUR or USD.
USDISK. End of the miracleIceland people deserve good words as they could manage the strong financial crisis and an awful devaluation of krona in 2008 (>160%).
Since then the ISK won back the most of the loss against the dollar almost hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci.
In spite of this, the structure of the chart calls for another rise of USDISK at least to the former top beyond 150 level.
Before that, there is another drop is pending in wave 5 of C to complete the correction.
USDISK is gonna fly to the moon, again...After applying a fixed Gann sqaure to Icelandic krona weekly chart, we seem to have arrived to the start of a new Gann wave, which if correlated with 2 previous waves, should be a much steeper run to a new high at about 156 or higher. Ichimoku elements show bullish momentum as well (amazing how well Ichimoku aligns with Gann square ). Even if we take into consideration solely a double bottom (W pattern), price should hit 120 (the length of W move) pretty soon. USDISK´s rise aligns well with our DXY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( dollar index -0.27% -0.27% -0.27% ) Gann projection, which is only to strengthen this year. One thing I do not understand, why does not Iceland´s government replace ISK (which as volatile as crude or bitcoin) with a more stable currency like EUR. Theu could have done so a long time ago, being EEA member.
Icelandic krona formed a bullish flag on monthlyBy 2020 it should reach the upper side of the flag and at that point an upward breakout should occur. The breakout move usually equals the height of flag´s pole.
