USDJPY4HJPYUSD 4H Local Timeframe Analysis
On the 4-hour local timeframe, after clearing liquidity in the form of last month's low, I am considering a long position from the weekly order block. On the local timeframe, the entry is planned at the OTE level.
On the 1-hour timeframe, there is a shift in character (CHOCH), signaling a potential reversal. However, I am cautious as this shift may be false. A change in character often points to a possible market reversal, but confirmation is key.
Trade Plan:
This is a long-term trade, so we will manage risk carefully. The risk per trade is limited to 1% of the deposit, with the stop-loss placed beyond the boundary of the weekly order block.
Targets:
Target 1: 155.88This is a slightly challenging level as it contains an OTE zone, where a reversal is possible, though unlikely. Upon reaching this target, the stop-loss will be moved to breakeven, securing the trade.
Target 2: 156.75At this level, 30% of the position will be closed to lock in profits.
Final Target: 158.87This corresponds to the imbalance on the weekly timeframe. The position will be fully closed at this level.
Summary:
By following this plan, risk is minimized, and profits are strategically secured along the way. The long setup is based on higher timeframe confluences and potential price reversals indicated by changes in market structure.
USDJPY.1000.DUB trade ideas
Expanding Channel Broken – Bulls Gaining GroundThe market has officially broken out of the expanding channel to the upside, signaling a shift in sentiment. This breakout could attract momentum buyers, especially if price holds above the previous resistance zone. With fundamentals aligning, we might be looking at the start of a broader bullish continuation. Eyes on retest
USD/JPY(20250416)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.10
Support and resistance levels
144.08
143.72
143.48
142.72
142.48
142.11
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.10, consider buying, the first target price is 143.48
If the price breaks through 142.72, consider selling, the first target price is 142.48
USD/JPY(20250414)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Collins: It is currently expected that the Fed will need to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period of time. If necessary, the Fed is "absolutely" ready to help stabilize the market; Kashkari: No serious chaos has been seen yet, and the Fed should intervene cautiously only in truly urgent situations; Musallem: The Fed should be wary of continued inflation driven by tariffs.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.41
Support and resistance levels:
146.00
145.03
144.40
142.41
141.79
140.82
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 144.40, consider buying, the first target price is 145.03
If the price breaks through 143.41, consider selling, the first target price is 142.41
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25
Happy Friday Traders, It has been a week of sitting on capital. Being cautious, awaiting for breaks of structures at key areas and not not getting dragged into trades that do not fully present themselves. The clues have been there. The carrot has been continually dangled however as risk managers... You know how the saying goes.
We stay true to our trading plan.
We hold firm with what we know works.
We are aware of our market edge.
We know our "perfect" set up does present itself.
with that said, we are dynamic! We do of course entertain the "Imperfect" setup. We simply approach with caution.
A slightly different take. Can we snap the lows of Tokyo in the London session. Tap into the 4 hour order block, push bullish to break Lower time frame structure?
A quick setup with a take profit area where FRGNT anticipates a potential turn around in price short.
Lets see how it plays !
Trade well.
FRGNT X
Yen Carry Trade & Rate Hike (BoJ)The USD/JPY pair is likely to fall toward the 140 level as two key factors weigh on the market: the unwinding of the yen carry trade and growing fears of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
For years, Japan’s ultra-low interest rates made the yen a favorite currency for carry trades, where investors borrow yen cheaply to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. However, as global markets face increased volatility and central banks tighten monetary policy, these trades are becoming less attractive. Investors are now unwinding these positions, which involves selling off foreign assets and buying back yen, strengthening the currency and putting downward pressure on USD/JPY.
At the same time, the BoJ has hinted it may soon raise interest rates as inflation in Japan shows signs of persistence. Even the expectation of a rate hike reduces the appeal of the dollar against the yen, as higher Japanese rates would narrow the interest rate differential. This makes the yen more appealing and further accelerates the unwinding of carry trades.
With these factors aligning, the USD/JPY pair potentially faces significant downward momentum, making a move toward the 140 level increasingly likely.