Traders could veer towards the yen with risk events loomingIt is no coincidence that VIX futures have been creeping higher in recent weeks despite Wall Street hitting record highs, as traders are presumably hedging downside risk as we approach the US election. And that means it may not take much to spook traders out of bullish bets with markets at frothy levels, and that could see the yen strengthen as a safety play. Matt Simpson takes a technical look at yen pairs of interest.
USDJPY.P trade ideas
USD/JPY - 10/15/2024 - Weakness in 240min chart timeDrift pattern on the 4h chart time, renewing tops but without bullish continuity and showing divergence in the relative strength index. Breaking the pattern downwards, we can look for an ascending bottom on the daily timeframe in the fibonacci region between 61.8% and 38.2%
USD/JPY Targets Further Upside; Key to Hold Above 1W PivotHello,
The FX:USDJPY pair is showing potential for further upside towards 161.952, though short-term fluctuations may occur. Despite significant seller pressure at the moment, the long-term outlook remains strongly bullish. To sustain this momentum, maintaining a position above the 1-week pivot point (1W PP) is crucial.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Usdjpy bearish big dip expected read the caption USD/JPY has been struggling to break past the resistance level at 149.55 despite repeated attempts over the past five trading sessions. The Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve signals a more moderate approach to interest rate cuts in its upcoming meetings, contrasting with the broader expectations of more aggressive rate reduction
#USDJPY 1HUSDJPY 1H Chart Analysis – Rising Wedge Pattern**
On the 1-hour chart for USDJPY, a **Rising Wedge pattern** has emerged, signaling a potential bearish reversal. A rising wedge typically forms during an uptrend, with the price trading between two upward-sloping, converging trendlines. This pattern suggests that upward momentum is weakening, and a reversal to the downside may be on the horizon.
#Forecast:
-Sell once the price breaks below the lower trendline of the wedge. A confirmed breakdown indicates bearish momentum, suggesting that the market could move lower after this reversal pattern plays out.
Traders should wait for a confirmed breakdown below the wedge's lower boundary, ideally with strong volume, to avoid false breakouts. Consider setting stop losses above the upper trendline and using key support levels as potential targets.
JPY OutlooksFundametnal Analysis:
OANDA:USDJPY pair is currently positioned for potential strength in the U.S. dollar, driven by contrasting economic fundamentals between Japan and the U.S. Japan's GDP growth rate is modest at 0.7%, with an annual contraction of -0.2%, signaling economic weakness, while inflation remains moderate at 2.8%. The Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rate of 0.25% further weakens the yen as it contrasts sharply with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher rates (5.25%), making USD assets more attractive. Japan's manufacturing sector is showing signs of contraction with a PMI of 49.8, while services remain in expansion at 53.7. The trade deficit and low consumer confidence in Japan, combined with relatively stronger U.S. growth, indicate that USD/JPY is likely to remain bullish, with the yen under continued pressure unless there is a major policy shift by the Bank of Japan.
Tip: The USD/JPY pair is likely to remain bullish as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates at 5.25% while the BOJ maintains its ultra-low 0.25% rate, favoring the dollar. The interest rate differential and Japan's loose monetary policy continue to put downward pressure on the yen, supporting USD strength. (USD/JPY may go bullish again very soon)
Technical Analysis:
OANDA:USDJPY chart shows a potential bullish reversal forming at the pivot level of 140.822. If the price holds above this support, the pair could rally toward the targets of 148.604 and 151.144. A break below 138.882 could invalidate this bullish outlook. The current structure suggests a likely upward move in the near term.
Overral view
UsdJpy Trade IdeaLast set up I'm looking at this morning is going to be UJ. I published a set up yesterday but I wanted to give an update with price being at a different place. We can see clean bullish structures with HLs being respected. I'll take longs once price breaks and retests 150. That is currently the last higher higher. Once and IF that happens I'll execute longs and have targets around the weekly resistance for a 1:3rr. Now if price does decide to respect the resistance it's currently sitting at again then I'll take shorts on the break and retest of the LAST HL on the 4hr time frame being 148.226. I have the HL marked as 'Sells if price goes below'. Be Patient here.
USDJPY Long Based on current price I can see it do another push up but price us losing momentum I can see next week price taking out liquidity on the downside but for now it is still long for me.
USD/JPY Remains Strong as JPY Struggles for Upside The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trend on Tuesday, maintaining strength despite limited upside potential for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The JPY's inability to gain ground is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Coupled with a generally positive risk tone in the markets, this has kept the JPY, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, from making any meaningful gains.
US Data and Market Outlook
Tuesday’s economic calendar for the US is relatively quiet, with no major data releases expected. However, the spotlight will turn to Thursday’s key economic reports, which include the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject more volatility into the market and could influence the trajectory of the US Dollar and other major currency pairs, including USD/JPY.
Given the strength of the USD near its two-month peak, the upcoming data could further support the dollar, limiting any potential upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar's resilience continues to exert pressure on the JPY, keeping the pair on a bullish path.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Targeting 152.000
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair appears poised to extend its rally, with a potential target around the 152.000 level. This area could be reached following the release of the key US economic reports on Thursday, which may provide the necessary momentum for further gains.
The technical outlook is supported by the broader strength of the USD and the lack of strong upside drivers for the JPY. The chart of JPY futures also reflects the challenging environment for the Yen, signaling continued weakness.
Chart Overview: JPY Futures Chart
As shown in the chart, the JPY remains under pressure in the futures market, further confirming our outlook for continued USD/JPY strength.
Strategy: Patience is Key
After successfully closing our previous USD/JPY trade in profit, we are now waiting for a more favorable area to enter a new position. With key economic data on the horizon, patience remains essential as we await clearer signals from the market.
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its bullish trend in the near term, with a potential target of 152.000. The combination of US Dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate policy should keep the Yen on the defensive, at least until there are clearer indications of future central bank actions. For now, we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the next opportunity to re-enter the market.
PREVIOUS CLOSED POSITION:
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USDJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 149.346.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 150.396 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDJPY finding support at the Fib levelIntraday Update: The USDJPY has slid to the 148.90 level support which is the intraday 61.8% retracement. Any bounce back to the 149.50 level may find sellers and channel support is at 148.70.
USDJPY is on the upUSDJPY is rising on one hour time frame making new higher highs and higher lows currently price is trading near the trend line, good opportunity to buy at current levels.
USDJPY (SHORT)
1)Head and shoulders reversal pattern (We forming right shoulder now)
2)USD weakeness are and pivot area for sells on UJ
USDJPY looking for 700 Pips UP !!!!Dear Traders,
140 Area supported with Buyers (False break) and i expect price will continue Uptrend to 150 area ,
Dont Forget Like&Comment please !
Regards,
Alireza!
USDJPY - 4H Sell SetupFX:USDJPY is displaying a clear technical setup for a bearish move. After a significant pullback following a sharp fall, the pair failed to surpass the resistance zone around 149. This area has proven strong as the price action was unable to hold above it, trapping liquidity just above the resistance. The price then rejected this zone with a sharp reversal. Additionally, the second attempt to break through the resistance further confirms the weakness, as liquidity hunting above the resistance has been met with selling pressure. This rejection, combined with the failed breakout, suggests the pair is likely to fall towards the lower targeted support zone, potentially setting up a strong shorting opportunity in the near term.
This aligns with fundamental factors, including expectations of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japan faces a cautious stance on raising interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure. However, recent economic data from Japan, such as rising producer prices and decreased lending activity, suggests a shift may be underway, supporting further yen strength and a potential fall in USDJPY.
Traders should watch for a continuation of this move, as the failed attempts to breach resistance and the liquidity grab signal further downside pressure.
USDJPY Short from ResistanceHello Traders
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USD/JPY – Breakout of Resistance TrendlineWe have just broken out of the resistance trendline on USD/JPY. If you're currently short, I recommend reducing your position as the price approaches the green zone.
For those without a position, it might be wise to wait for the price to reach this green zone before considering a long entry. However, always wait for confirmation before entering long positions to ensure a higher probability of success.
DeGRAM | USDJPY rising wedgeUSDJPY is moving in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The chart is forming a reversal pattern of an ascending wedge between trend lines.
Dynamic resistance has already acted as a pullback point.
We expect a pullback after a retest of the upper trend line.
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USDJPY NEED MOMENTUM TO KEEP THE BULLISH MOVE GOING.USDJPY is in tight condition as we see price trading in a contrasting symmetrical triangle pattern. A break below 149.222 May lead price to 148.492
