USDJPY SELL CONFIRMATION!!!Price is set to drop from the current price. A sell opportunity is envisaged from the CMP as buyers pushed price to a resistance level of 143.760. Target is 141.654
USDJPY.P trade ideas
USDJPY Short Position4H Bullish to Bearish Trend Shift: The USDJPY pair has shown a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish trend on the 4-hour chart, which is typically a strong signal of a potential downside move. This trend shift can be confirmed by price breaking a series of higher lows (HL), signaling the start of a bearish move.
Break of Key Trendline: A significant trendline has been broken, further confirming the weakening of the prior bullish trend and the likelihood of the bears taking control.
Wyckoff strategy on usdjpyHigh Volume on Markup: During the initial rise between September 23rd and 27th, the volume is moderate and steady, confirming participation in the upward trend. No massive volume spikes are seen during the markup, suggesting that institutional players were gradually adding positions.
Sharp Volume Spike on Decline (Markdown): Around September 27th, as the price reaches its peak and begins to drop, there is a significant increase in volume, suggesting institutional selling. The large red candles with high volume indicate that the smart money is exiting long positions, signaling the end of the distribution phase.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE): The price has now dropped significantly and is retracing back upwards. According to ICT’s OTE method, you could look for a shorting opportunity if the price retraces to the 61.8% - 79% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the 144.000 - 145.000 range.
Entry (Sell): Look for a retracement back to the 144.000 - 145.000 area, which coincides with the previous order block and the OTE zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop above the previous highs at 145.500. This gives room for price to test the liquidity above the highs without triggering your stop.
Take Profit (TP): A reasonable target would be the previous support zone around 142.000, where liquidity might reside based on previous price action.
Markup Phase: From September 23rd to 27th, as price trends upward from 143.00 to 145.500.
Distribution Phase: Around September 27th, where price consolidates near the highs before dropping.
Sell Setup: Ideal short entry around 144.000 - 145.000, with SL above 145.500 and TP around 142.000.
Buy Setup: If price holds support around 142.000, look for a buy setup with TP around 144.000.
USDJPYHello everyone, USDJPY chart analysis The price broke the lower border of the ascending channel. After the break, it is clear from the large red candle that there is strong selling pressure, which led to a rapid decline and a clear break of the upward trend. The MACD indicator is showing a shift to selling momentum. We move to a lower time frame and look for a selling opportunity⬇️
⛔It is not investment advice, for educational purposes only.
LOOKING FOR MY NEXT BULL TRADEUSD/JPY 1H - With this market you can see that price has recently broken structure to the upside, as we know this suggests that price is ready to start putting in some longer term bullish structure.
We also have a-lot of inefficient structure sat above current price that I feel price needs to come and clear, my overall bias for this market is a bullish one regardless hence my judgment to see this market trade higher longer term.
Above I have gone and marked out two key areas of interest I feel price may come to trade down and into before reversing and trading us higher. The first one marks out and evident Order Block here on the 1H timeframe whereas the second marks out a Hidden Order Block.
Both of which represent areas of Demand as there are plenty of short orders there that need clearing and any shorts placed to drive price down will be removed one price taps into this area, Demand (buy order) will be introduced as this is a footprint for bulls to enter in.
USDJPY TF 1H 11024wait till price come into the zone and break out with big green/red candles
entry (TF 2h,4h)
SL at previous low/high
TP at Fibonacci
USDJPY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY Price trades at 142.940 a sell opportunity is envisaged from the current market price as sellers may continue to dominate the market.
30-09-2024 _ Short Term Bearish Idea _ USDJPY H41. Series of LHs and LLs
2. No divergence against
3. Price action has tested the top of the channel.
4. Look for Sell Setups within the Support / Resistance Zone marked.
5. Target towards the bottom of the channel.
USDJPY sell and buyBe prepared for short term signal for sell and after reach the target, wait for confirmation and go long
Japanese yen soars on Japan’s political dramaThe Japanese yen has steadied on Monday after posting huge gains on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 142.43 in the European session, up 0.15%.
The yen soared on Friday but it was in response to political rather than economic developments. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) unexpectedly chose Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader and he will take over as Prime Minister on Tuesday. Ishiba’s win was a surprise as Economic Minister Sanae Takaichi was expected to win the LDP leadership race.
The financial markets reacted sharply – the Japanese yen soared 2.1% on Friday while the Japanese stock market is sharply lower today. Takaichi is a strong supporter of lower interest rates while Ishiba favors the Bank of Japan’s moves towards normalization. Ishiba said today that he will call a snap election on October 27, which he is almost certain to win. Ishiba’s election would be a green light for the BoJ to continue tightening policy which would make the yen more attractive to investors.
Overshadowed by the political drama was Monday’s Japanese data, which was a mix. Industrial production slid 3.3% m/m in August, after a 3.1% gain in July and well short of the market estimate of -0.9%. Yearly, industrial production declined 4.9%, compared to a 2.9% gain in July.
There was better news from retail sales, which rose 0.8% m/m in August, up from 0.2% in July and a three-month high. Yearly, retail sales climbed 2.8%, up from a revised 2.7% in July and above the market consensus of 2.3%.
Inflation remains under control and this was reiterated on Friday by the US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The index rose 0.1% m/m in August, a three-month low. This was down from 0.2% in July and below the market estimate of 0.2%. Yearly, Core PCE ticked up to 2.7%, after three consecutive months at 2.6% and in line with expectations.
USD/JPY tested resistance at 142.86 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 143.19
There is support at 142.26 and 141.93
USD/JPY Analysis: The Yen Strengthens by Over 2.8% in One DayUSD/JPY Analysis: The Yen Strengthens by Over 2.8% in One Day
According to Reuters, it was announced on Friday that Shigeru Ishiba, known for his tough stance on interest rates, will become Japan's next Prime Minister.
This news caused a sharp intraday reversal in the USD/JPY exchange rate on Friday: while the price initially rose in the morning (as shown by the arrow), it was followed by a sharp downward impulse later in the day.
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows:
→ The price made a false bullish breakout of the upper boundary of the descending channel before retreating back inside it;
→ The price broke the upward trend (marked by blue lines);
→ The ¥143 level shifted from support to resistance;
→ The current support comes from a line drawn below the blue channel (shown by the dotted line).
This suggests that the bears may have taken control, and if their pressure intensifies, the USD/JPY pair could head lower towards the median line of the red channel.
Note: Around 21:00 GMT+3 today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Nashville at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. His remarks could trigger increased volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDJPY Long (Buy limit)Looking for Fridays imbalance to get filled and targeting price 144.350, in my opinion this low we are in is a higher low in the making for the 4h time frame, its not certain but highly likely from my analysis.
Support LongGood day traders. here is a setup of USDJPY, price rejected the support indicated by the blue zone the buy is supported by principles of pair correlation and technical analysis and we have what looks like a strong 61.8% rejection of the Fibo. Find entries that accommodate your account and be careful of news events.
USD/JPY Ends Pullback with Bearish Engulfing PatternShort-term momentum has realigned with the long-term downtrend in USD/JPY. Friday’s price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern, signalling that the recent rally may have come to an end, as sellers regained control.
Why USD/JPY Has Been Trending Lower Since July
USD/JPY has been in a steady decline since the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) unexpected shift in policy back in July 2024. The BoJ's decision to increase interest rates caught many off guard, prompting a rapid unwinding of the massive yen carry trade. This move, combined with the Federal Reserve signalling a more dovish outlook with potential rate cuts, has pushed the yen stronger against the dollar. The result? A persistent downtrend in USD/JPY, further confirmed by the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average—a well-known "death cross" pattern that underscores bearish momentum.
Bearish Engulfing Pattern on the Daily Candle Chart
Last week, USD/JPY began to retrace higher, approaching both the 50-day moving average and the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the July highs. However, Friday’s trading session brought that pullback to a dramatic halt. After starting the day with upward momentum, prices reversed sharply, closing at the week's lows. The resulting daily candle formed a textbook bearish engulfing pattern, where Friday’s price range completely eclipsed the ranges of the previous four days. This is a significant technical signal, as it shows that sellers decisively reasserted control, realigning short-term momentum with the longer-term downtrend.
USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Hourly Candle Chart: Breaking the Retracement
Zooming in on the hourly chart, Friday's price action becomes even more revealing. Early in the session, a sharp increase in selling pressure emerged on elevated volume, snapping the ascending retracement line that had been guiding the short-term rally. This breakdown was accompanied by an aggressive surge in selling, which continued throughout the day. For swing traders, this shift offers an actionable opportunity. Anchoring a new VWAP to the recent swing highs on the hourly chart provides a dynamic moving average that traders could use to sell pullbacks into, aligning trades with the dominant bearish trend.
USD/JPY Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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USDJPY - one n only area, what's next??#USDJPY.. perfectly holding out major supporting area of the month n quarter as we told you in our last couple of ideas regarding USDJPY.
Now market is just near to his one of the most important resistance of the week n today.
That is 143.50
Keep close that area because it will be your key level in tomorrow and in overall move.
If market hold it then again drop expected below that otherwise after that level market will leads you towards upside mentioned areas.
Good luck
Trade wisely
USDJPY → No upside potential. Prepare to fall!FX:USDJPY is facing a sell-off at the end of last week, which proves that the currency pair is not ready to go up. The dollar still continues to prepare for a breakout of 100.0.
The currency pair is not able to approach the local highs, however, after the reduction of interest rates in the U.S. Japan refrained from any economic decisions regarding this issue. The pressure on the dollar has a corresponding effect on the currency pair. At the moment the price is facing a strong support at 141.74, from which a small correction to the liquidity or imbalance zone may follow, but with a high probability (technical and fundamental nuances) we may see a continuation of the fall.
Resistance levels: 143.25, 144.0, 145.18
Support levels: 141.74, 139.5
In the short term, I expect a slight pullback followed by a continuation of the fall, breakdown of the key support and price decline to 139.5-138
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:USDJPY ;)
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY Analysis for 30/09/2024: Potential Slightly Bullish BiasThe USDJPY pair is poised for a potential slight bullish bias on 30/09/2024, driven by key fundamental and technical factors. In this article, we'll explore the major elements influencing the USDJPY pair, including monetary policy, economic data releases, and broader market sentiment. Traders and investors on TradingView should consider these factors when positioning themselves in the market.
Key Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias:
1. Federal Reserve Hawkish Tone:
The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance in recent weeks, signaling its commitment to keeping interest rates elevated to combat persistent inflation. The strong U.S. dollar has been supported by the Fed’s actions, and this policy direction is expected to continue today. With U.S. interest rates relatively higher compared to Japan’s negative or near-zero rates, the USDJPY pair is likely to experience upward momentum as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Stance:
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no indication of raising rates in the near term. This divergence in monetary policy between the BOJ and the Fed remains a key driver of USDJPY bullishness. The BOJ has consistently kept rates low, supporting the Yen's weakness against stronger currencies like the USD.
3. Positive U.S. Economic Data:
Recent U.S. economic data, such as strong retail sales and consumer sentiment, has painted a robust picture of the American economy. This has bolstered confidence in the dollar, making the USDJPY more attractive to traders. In contrast, Japan’s economic outlook has been more muted, adding to the pressure on the Yen.
4. Safe-Haven Demand Moderating:
Global geopolitical tensions and fears of a recession have softened in recent days, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The easing of these concerns has contributed to the Yen’s depreciation, while the dollar remains strong due to robust economic fundamentals.
Technical Outlook for USDJPY:
On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading within a well-defined upward channel. The 50-day moving average is trending higher, and the pair is currently testing key resistance levels around 149.50. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI are not yet overbought, suggesting room for additional gains before any potential pullback.
Support Levels: 148.70, 148.00
Resistance Levels: 149.50, 150.00
Conclusion:
Based on the current fundamental backdrop and technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, 30/09/2024. Traders should watch for any new comments from Federal Reserve officials, as well as any geopolitical developments that could impact safe-haven flows. As the divergence between the Fed and BOJ's policies remains a dominant theme, this pair could continue to push higher in the near term.
U.S.Doollar / JaPanese YenHello dear friends,
If the Japanese yen can break its short-term ceiling upwards, we can enter a temporary buy trade during the pullback. In this case, with the appropriate confirmation, the market will be bullish, and we can reach the specified target.
The chart analysis has been designed in a simple and clear manner for the use of dear traders.
Thank you!
USD/JPY Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn USD/JPY it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 146.12. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area, along with the presence of a fair volume gap and a strong rejection of higher prices, are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
USDJPY Long Fakeout TradeUSDJPY Long Fakeout Trade
We went below Previous Weekly Low + Previous Day Low and then returned above.
Stop Loss 10 pips below the wick: 141.489
Take Profit: 142.724
1. R:R 1:1, 0.5% Risk
2. After reaching TP closing half and moving SL to Breakeven
3. Trailing the rest with market structure on M15
Close the loser before hitting full SL if price moves back to the breakout level without follow-through.
Close the winner if a reversal signal forms (e.g., engulfing pattern, pin bar), especially on higher timeframes like H1.
*Important news for USDJPY today at 7:00 pm and 7.55 pm*
USDJPY - Short Trade Idea This is a short trade idea on the USDJPY pair.
Recently, we traded into a 4M and 11M BISI, had a nice reaction to a Premium Array, now we had a breakdown again. Because of the Japanese Central Bank's decision to increase interest rates, I am expecting price to take a further nose dive. I have 2 targets based on my profit-taking criteria. 1st is the swing low as a Discount Array, and 2nd/final target is a 2D BISI below some relative equal lows.
Depending on where price closes today, I would be anticipating price to trade back up into a 2D iFVG that was a previous R2F signature BISI on the 2D timeframe. Safest stoploss before invalidating the trade is at the swing high before the sudden dump at Japan election news.
Let's see!
- R2F
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 141.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 139.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 143.22
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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