USDJPY Tests Channel Support After ADP Shock — Rebound Ahead?In the last hour's candle after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Index was released, USDJPY ( FX:USDJPY ) started to fall, but considering the position of this pair, I think we can have a good Risk-To-Reward even if the Stop Loss (SL) is touched.
USDJPY is trading near the lower line of the ascending channel and the Support zone(143.870 JPY-143.430 JPY) .
From an Elliott Wave perspective , USDJPY appears to be completing a corrective pattern .
I expect USDJPY to rise at least to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: Stop Loss = 143.220 JPY
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U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze (USDJPY), 1-hour time frame.
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USDJPY trade ideas
USD/JPY.chart pattern..USD/JPY BUY trade idea:
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📈 Trade Setup Overview
Pair: USD/JPY
Trade Type: BUY
Entry: 142.300
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🎯 Target Points
Target Level Price Notes
🎯 Target 1 146.400 First major resistance zone
🎯 Target 2 148.500 Final target / swing target
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📉 Risk Management & Distraction Zones
To complete your setup, you should also consider potential risks/invalidation levels.
🔻 Suggested Stop Loss Zone (Distraction)
Below 141.200 – A break below this support level would:
Invalidate the bullish structure
Likely signal reversal or deep correction
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✅ Summary Table
Parameter Value
Entry 142.300
Target 1 146.400
Target 2 148.500
Suggested SL ~141.200
R:R (approx.) Good (>2:1)
Trend Bias Bullish
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UsdJpy could break 142 and fall 500 pipsSince early May, I’ve been highlighting the 142 support zone on USDJPY as a potential reversal area — with a suggested upside target at 146.
The market respected this level twice, reversing from 142 and rallying past 146 both times.
However, last week’s move into 146 was sharply rejected, forming a strong daily Pin Bar exactly at resistance — a classic sign of exhaustion.
Now, price is rolling back toward support, and after multiple tests of the 142 zone, we may be very close to a downside break.
🧩 Add to this the fact that DXY also looks ready to break lower, and the probability of a USDJPY fall increases even more.
📉 Trading Plan:
Sell rallies, with invalidation above 146, and a target at 137, aiming for a 1:2 risk-reward setup.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
USD/JPY) breakout bearish trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) pair on a 2-hour timeframe. Here's the idea behind the analysis:
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Overall Idea: Bearish Move Toward Support
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Key Levels
Resistance Zone (Yellow Box, Top): Marked with two red arrows — shows strong price rejection around 146.00–147.00 area.
Support Zone (Yellow Box, Bottom): Around 139.85, marked as a target point and support level.
These two zones form the range in which price has been reacting.
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Current Price Action
Price is currently trading at 142.649, well below the 200 EMA (at 144.190), which is a bearish signal.
It has broken below the mid-range and seems to be heading toward the lower support zone (139.85).
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Trend & Structure
The price is following a downward trend after rejecting from the resistance zone.
The channel suggests a further leg down is likely to complete a measured move.
A temporary retest of the broken trendline might occur before continuation down.
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RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently around 31.83, nearing oversold territory, indicating the potential for:
A short-term bounce before further downside, or
A reversal near the key support zone.
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Projection
The projection arrow (blue) suggests a bullish rebound from the 139.85 support zone.
This aligns with a potential buy opportunity once support is confirmed.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion (Trade Idea Summary)
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Medium-Term Setup: Look for a buy opportunity around 139.85, if price reacts well.
Key Steps:
1. Watch for price to reach 139.85.
2. Look for bullish reversal patterns or confirmations at that level (e.g., bullish engulfing, RSI divergence).
3. If confirmed, a potential long trade could target back toward the 144–145 zone.
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USDJPY forms textbook head and shoulders patternOur last bearish call on USDJPY played out perfectly. Now, a new setup is forming. With US ISM data showing contraction and stock markets under pressure, the dollar-yen could be next to drop. Watch as we break down the textbook head and shoulders pattern and the levels to watch for a potential 600+ pip move. Target zones, risk-reward, and key breakout levels all included.
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Goal of this ideas is track order flow.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY Forecast for NFP Week | Price at a Critical Turning PointIn this video, I’m diving into the USDJPY setup ahead of a high-impact week filled with major economic news like the NFP, ADP Employment, and speeches from the BoJ Governor.
We’ll walk through the technical zones I’m watching, discuss potential buyer and seller reactions, and outline the key catalysts that could move the market.
🔔 Don’t forget to like the video in support of my work.
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
#USDJPY #ForexForecast #NFPWeek #ForexMentor #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrading #BoJ #TradeSetups #PriceAction #MarketBreakdown
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 143.200 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 143.200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDJPYpotential for a possible swing trade opportunity ( Short )
- Overall bearish market in the 4hr time frame
- pair is creating LH and LLs in the 4hr/1Hr
- waiting for market to retest FVG and anticipate the movement towards the downside.
- bearish and high wick candles confirming sellers are in a strong position
- SL just about the previous High
- TP at the next major demand zone
USDJPY I Trading Plan and Forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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USDJPY 4H Analysis – Market Dynamics ChangingDear Traders,
Guys, the bearish trend in USDJPY has now shifted into a bullish uptrend. My target level for USDJPY is 146.330. Once it reaches my target, I will share updates under this post.
Friends, every single like from you is my biggest source of motivation when it comes to sharing my analysis.
A huge thank you to everyone who supports me with their likes!
USDJPY is Nearing an Important ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 143.700 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 143.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDJPY: Neutral View! One of The Hardest Forex Pair To TradeUSDJPY has not yet shown a clear move, ranging between 141 and 144. We are currently neutral as the price could go in either direction. Trade cautiously and manage risk according to your trade plan.
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Tuesday follow up Today we have the JOLTS JOB REPORT due at 10am est
Key takeaways
Job openings, Quits Rate, and Hires vs Openings
Job openings: a higher number shows strong demand for labor hinting at a tight labor market
Quits Rate: A higher quit rate could mean workers are confiednt they can find better opportunities
Hires V Openings: When job openings are on the rise faster than hires that could show a skill mismatch or labor shortage
This report will cover April 2025, the report typically has a 5 week lag, and the April data should reflect employment conditions as of late March.
As it relates to USD/JPY: A strong report reflects the status of job openings and quits this will show strengthen USD. A stronger labor market could increase expectations the fed might raise interest rates or keep them higher for longer
A weaker report could lead to more consolidation or a stronger yen which result in a decreasing dollar
We are looking for an increased value from 7.192 on the last report or around that same value
Yesterday's trade: I typically don't trade early in the week but per my callout on my last idea if you took my buy reversal there was minimum drawback if you used proper analysis
ie: wait for open and close below price for sell and above for buy ideally you would want to get in around 142.706, however the reversal took place at 142.429
If you entered on at the price 142.579 there was minimal drawback.
I entered at 142.706 price is currently at 143.570 please use correct risk management for account growth
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144
🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces
In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen.
The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets.
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish
Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services.
Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target.
This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat.
🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal
Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety.
📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1
On the H1 chart:
Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum.
Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+
However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations
Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred):
Entry: 142.70 – 142.90
Stop-Loss: 142.30
Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60
Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy:
Entry: 144.15
Stop-Loss: 143.70
Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD.
BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
Trading Signals for USD/JPY sell below 146.41The price test at 144.06 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As result, the pair plunged toward the target level of 143.39.
Yesterday was marked by significant fluctuations in the currency market, triggered by the release of disappointing data from the United States. The ADP employment report showed a much smaller job increase than expected, and weak ISM services sector figures created a domino effect, leading to a rise in the Japanese yen and a corresponding decline in the US dollar. The market's reaction was swift. Concerned about slowing US economic growth, traders began shedding dollar assets and shifting into traditional "safe-haven" currencies like the yen. This process was further intensified by revised expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.
Today's weak wage growth data had little impact on the currency market. It appears that market participants had already factored such results into their forecasts, expecting a correction after previously more optimistic reports. Overall, investors are currently focused on more significant indicators of economic health, such as inflation and GDP growth, rates.
Japanese Yen to Da Moon!I compared the yen to every single currency pair and USDJPY is the most volatile. BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75%-1% by late 2025/early 2026. And IF the FED chooses to lower rates that will further exacerbate Yen strength.
103.156 TP, but TBH I see price breaking well past that point and yen will make new all time highs. The dollar will get desecrated across all currencies, the yen will destroy it the hardest. Most likely BTC will also peak around this same time period and youll see and end to the bull cycle and we will enter BTC bear cycle but that is beside the point.
Potential Black Swan Event: the US enters into a recessionary environment, while I dont think this is likely bc everyone is saying that, it will be possible if we see a further escalation in the Ukraine conflict or if the US chooses to enter war with Iran. War is the only situation I see potential US recession.
I predicted then yen would get dusted during COVID, now I predict yen will make never seen before gains for the next 5 years minimum. Let's see how this plays out.
USD/JPY back at neckline as soft US data narrows yield spreadToday's soft US data releases weighed on US yields, which helped to further narrow the US-Japan spreads on the long dated bond yields. In turn, the USD/JPY gave up its entire gains from the day before when it was boosted by the JOLTS data. Next move could be defendant on the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
From a technical point of view, this is text book stuff. Price is testing a key area of support at the time of writing, between 142.00 to 142.70, as marked in grey on the chart. This zone has provided strong support on multiple occasions, preventing rates from sliding towards 140.00 zone. Now the more a level or an area is tested, the more likely it will break down. Will we see a break here in the next few days? Or will support continue to hold, as improving risk appetite gives US dollar some breathing space?
Well, the pair is down quite a lot on the session, so i wouldn't rule out a bounce here heading into US close. But the trend direction is clear: bearish.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
USDJPY - Predictive Analysis & Forecasting USDJPY
Scales
- S: pending 149.964 activation
- M: nears cycle completion from 140.648 to 148.52-149.53 target range
- L: 142.67 activation triggered 149.21 pivot
Forecast & Targets
- ST: limited upside to 149.96 max
- MT: bearish to 143.09 min, 138.29 max
#USDJPY #Forex #CROW2.0
4xForecaster
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Originally published in BlueSky