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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY key levels to watch after powerful rallyThe USD/JPY has rallied decisively today, aided by the shift in Japanese bond sentiment. The pair has broken several short-term levels and moving averages. At the time of writing, it was trading bang in the middle of the 144.00 -144.80 resistance area, formerly support. We also have the 21-day exponential moving average residing here. As things stand, the next key upside target for the USD/JPY is now positioned near the 145 mark. Should price approach or breach it, we might begin to see growing confidence among longer-term bulls. On the downside, key support is seen around the 142.50 level. Bearish below towards 140.00 next. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
JPY/USD – Clean Rejection from Mini Resistance | Bearish Move🔻 1. Major & Mini Resistance Zones Mini Resistance Zone: This is a key supply area that aligns with previous highs and recent structure points. As the price approaches this level, it tends to react due to unfilled sell orders and trapped buyers. The chart shows a rejection from this mini resistance zone — visible through strong bearish candles. This suggests institutional selling pressure has entered the market. Major Resistance is still untouched above, which becomes a clear invalidation level for any short bias. If price breaks and sustains above it, the bearish idea would be invalidated. 🔄 2. MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) at Work The MMC idea is clearly illustrated. The price movement after the last major drop is mirrored on the right side: Strong rally > Formation of lower highs > Resistance retest > Sharp decline These mirrored behaviors often hint at psychological repetition in the market, driven by trader memory and order placement. The bearish movement after retesting the mini resistance looks nearly identical to the previous leg on the left — reinforcing the idea that we may see a similar downside structure repeat. 🌀 3. Central Zone Area – Liquidity Trap and Reaction Point The Central Zone Area is labeled where a previous sharp bounce occurred. This zone is critical for several reasons: It acted as support multiple times. It’s also where a liquidity grab occurred — shown with a long wick — before a reversal rally. In current price action, this zone may again act as a magnet for price, as institutions seek liquidity to fuel further moves. Once price reaches it, expect a temporary bounce or reaction. 📐 4. 50% Fibonacci Retracement Confluence The projected target sits right on the 50% retracement level of the previous bullish leg. Institutions frequently target the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci zones to rebalance orders and create continuation moves. This target zone is marked in purple and is aligned with historical support, adding confluence. 📉 5. Sharp Bearish Reversal from Structure You can observe a very clear shift in momentum: The uptrend was broken with a strong bearish engulfing candle. That move wiped out several minor bullish structures — a sign of structure collapse. This breakdown, combined with the resistance rejection and MMC mirroring, strongly supports a bearish continuation bias. 📊 6. Previous Targets and Structure Memory The previous targets and historical swing points are not just annotations — they represent real zones of order flow memory. When price revisits these levels, you often see reactions (reversals, consolidations, or continuation). 🎯 Trade Plan (Based on Chart): Bias: Bearish Entry Zone: After rejection confirmation at mini resistance Target Zone: 0.00675 area (50% retracement) Invalidation: Close above 0.00715 (Major Resistance) ✅ Conclusion: This JPY/USD 4H chart beautifully showcases the power of technical structure, Mirror Market Concepts, and liquidity-focused trading. With a clean rejection from mini resistance, a history of mirrored bearish setups, and a confluence target at the 50% zone, this chart suggests a high-probability short opportunity for disciplined traders.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY Is Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 30m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 142.838. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 142.464 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
MarketBreakdown | USDJPY, US100, BITCOIN, GBPJPY Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #USDJPY 4H time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵 I see a strong bullish reaction to a key daily/intraday horizontal support. A formation of a high momentum bullish candle and a violation of a resistance line of a bullish flag indicate a highly probable rise to higher levels. 2️⃣ #US100 #NASDAQ Index 4H time frame I spotted one more bullish flag on US100. Its resistance was violated yesterday and we already see a strong buying interest. I think that the market will rise more, at least to a current local high. 3️⃣ #BITCOIN #BTCUSD daily time frame The price nicely respected a confluence zone based on a rising trend line and a recently broken horizontal structure. Probabilities will be high that the market will continue rising from that. 4️⃣ #GBPJPY daily time frame 🇬🇧🇯🇵 The price nicely respected a solid rising trend line. I see a breakout attempt of a minor daily horizontal resistance. IF a daily candle closes above that, it will provide a strong bullish confirmation. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting fresh buyers in Tuesday's Asian session following the release of strong inflation data. Additionally, comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left the door open for further policy tightening by the central bank. This is in sharp contrast to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates this year, and is proving to be a key factor that is providing a nice lift for the yen. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks related to the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East are contributing to the yen's safe haven status. The US dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains near its lowest level since April 22 amid concerns over the deteriorating US fiscal situation. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's fall to 142.000, or more than a one-month low, and supports the prospects for further losses. Trading recommendation: SELL 143.300, SL 143.900, TP 142.000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Rise Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 142.31. a swing low support. Our take profit is set at 142.71, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 141.65, below the 161.8% Fibo extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USDJPY InsightWelcome, dear subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - U.S. President Trump announced a delay of the 50% tariff, which he had warned would take effect from June 1, until July 9. - Nvidia’s earnings will be released after the market closes on the 28th, drawing attention as a potential catalyst for increased risk appetite. - At the opening of the two-day conference themed “New Challenges in Monetary Policy” on the 27th, BOJ Governor Ueda stated that "Japan’s inflation is closer to the target than at any time in the past 30 years," and added, "As economic activity and prices improve, we will adjust the level of monetary easing as necessary to achieve the sustainable 2% inflation target, within the range that reinforces confidence in our baseline scenario based on incoming data." Key Economic Events This Week + May 28: FOMC Meeting Minutes + May 29: U.S. Q1 GDP + May 30: U.S. April PCE Price Index USDJPY Chart Analysis While it initially seemed like a short-term uptrend was forming with 149 as the peak, the pair broke below the 144 level, failing to establish the uptrend. The breakdown below the support line suggests a possible decline toward the 140 level. After reaching the low, we will need to monitor the situation, but a rebound is expected at this point. If the 140 level is breached, we will quickly develop a new strategy.
Short
by shawntime_academy
USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 🔹 Timeframe: 30M 🔹 Methodology: Elliott Wave + AO + Structure Break + BBMA ⸻ 🔍 Current Market Outlook: I’m currently observing Wave 4 playing out as a complex correction. Price is pushing toward the key level 142.796, which I expect to break structure (BOS) to the upside. Once that level is cleared, I’ll be watching closely for signs of an ABC corrective move to form — setting up a high-probability sell opportunity aligned with the final Wave 5 leg. ⸻ 🧠 Key Technical Highlights: ✅ Wave Count: • Wave 3 is confirmed by the strongest momentum on the AO • Wave 4 is unfolding and approaching structure at 142.796 • AO shows decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at possible exhaustion ✅ Plan: • Wait for break above 142.796 • Monitor for completion of ABC correction • Enter short after C-leg confirmation • TP at 1.618–1.786 Fib extension zone (141.818–141.614) • Anticipating bullish divergence on AO by the end of Wave 5 ⸻ 📌 Confluence Checklist: ✔️ Wave theory ✔️ BOS expected ✔️ Fibonacci targets ✔️ AO divergence setting up ✔️ BBMA structure alignment ⸻ 🎯 Strategy Summary: Break 142.796 ➝ Spot ABC ➝ Enter short on C ➝ Ride Wave 5 ➝ TP @ extension zone ⸻ 💬 Share your thoughts—Are you seeing the same potential Wave 5 setup? Let’s discuss. 👉 Follow me for clean structure-based analysis, BBMA setups, and advanced wave insights. #USDJPY #ElliottWave #ForexSetup #WaveAnalysis #BBMA #AOindicator #MarketStructure #BreakOfStructure #SmartMoney #SellTheRally #Wave5 #ForexStrategy
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
USDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.469. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 142.516 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
JPY/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Reversal in Play🔎 Technical Breakdown: 1. Rising Wedge Formation: The pair has been trading within a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price makes higher highs and higher lows but with diminishing momentum. The wedge is visible from the swing low on May 13, where price began to climb aggressively but within increasingly narrow price action. This narrowing range signals weakening bullish strength. 2. Key Resistance Zone: The wedge forms right below a Major Resistance Zone marked earlier in the chart (around 0.007050), where price had previously faced heavy selling pressure. This adds confluence to the bearish bias, as the zone historically acted as a turning point. 3. SR Interchange Zone: Below the wedge lies a Support-turned-Resistance (SR) Interchange level, a critical price area where past support may now act as resistance if the price attempts to retrace. This is a commonly watched level by institutional and technical traders. 4. Breakdown Confirmation: The price has broken below the wedge's lower trendline, which is often considered the breakdown signal. A valid breakdown typically includes a close outside the wedge body followed by a retest or continuation. 5. Bearish Target: The projected move is toward 0.006796, derived by measuring the wedge height and applying it from the breakdown point. This level aligns with a historical support zone, adding more confluence to the target. 🧠 Psychological & Structural View: Bullish exhaustion: Buyers pushed price higher into resistance, but momentum slowed, signaling exhaustion. Trapped longs: Traders who entered late in the wedge may now be trapped, potentially accelerating a sell-off as they exit. Smart money behavior: Rising wedges near resistance often signal distribution by smart money before a drop. 🛠️ Trading Plan Suggestion (Not Financial Advice): Entry: After a clear wedge breakdown, consider short entries on a retest of the broken trendline or a bearish candle confirmation. SL: Above the wedge high or major resistance zone. TP: Staggered exits below 0.006850 and final target around 0.006796. 🔁 What to Watch For: Retest of the wedge breakdown (potential short entry zone) Momentum confirmation via volume or bearish candles Price reaction at SR Interchange and final support target 🧠 Minds Section – Condensed Summary JPY/USD formed a Rising Wedge below major resistance, signaling bullish exhaustion. Price has broken down from the wedge, confirming bearish momentum. A clean breakdown targets 0.006796, with SR interchange acting as a minor support. A retest of the wedge breakdown could offer a good short opportunity.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY – Bearish Channel Holds, Eyes on Support BreakUSDJPY is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish channel on the 3H timeframe, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. After a slight bounce from the 142.50 support zone, the price is now heading toward the 143.30 resistance area — which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a zone likely to face rejection and renewed selling pressure. On the news front, Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over prolonged budget deficits, putting pressure on the USD. Although the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ still favors the dollar, current market sentiment is making it harder for USDJPY to maintain a strong rally. If the 143.30 resistance holds, the price is likely to be pushed back down to retest the 141.07 support zone — a previous low and the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed break below this level would signal further downside, with the next target below the 140.00 mark.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
USDJPY 4HFollowing last week’s analysis , the 143.82 target was reached and the bearish trend is continuing. However, a pullback up to 144.5 is possible, which may offer a better price for selling. Next downside targets are: 141.83 140.32 139.00 And further down: 136.15, where we expect a strong bullish reaction and a possible buy opportunity. Longer-term targets like 130.00 and even below 124.40 are also in the picture, but we move step by step. The analysis will be updated with new data.
Short
by GreyFX-NDS
2
Falling towards pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 140.70 1st Support: 137.16 1st Resistance: 145.54 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase. From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen. Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month. Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction. Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure. 🎯 Conclusion All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
USDJPYJGB and US Treasury Bond Yield Differential and Upcoming Fundamental Data . Current Bond Yields Overview Bond Type Yield (%) Notes Japan 10-year JGB ~1.24% to 1.55% Yields have risen slightly amid faster inflation in Japan (CPI around 3.5% YoY in April), highest in over a month. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a low policy rate (~0.5%) but is expected to tighten further due to inflation pressures. US 10-year Treasury ~4.5% US yields remain significantly higher, reflecting tighter Federal Reserve policy and stronger economic growth expectations. Yield Differential The interest rate differential between US and Japanese 10-year bonds is roughly 3.0% to 3.3% in favor of the US. This large spread reflects divergent monetary policies: the Fed’s tightening vs. BoJ’s cautious normalization amid inflation concerns. The differential supports USD strength versus JPY and underpins carry trade strategies borrowing JPY to invest in USD assets. Recent Trends in JGB Yields JGB yields, especially long-dated maturities (20-year, 30-year, 40-year), have surged to multi-decade or all-time highs (e.g., 20-year at ~2.55%, 30-year at ~3.14%, 40-year at ~3.6%) due to fiscal concerns and poor auction results. The 10-year JGB yield rose modestly by about 0.5 basis points recently, reaching around 1.24%–1.55%. Inflation pressures in Japan, with CPI rising faster than expected, are prompting expectations for further BoJ policy tightening this year. Upcoming Fundamental Data and Events to Watch Japan: Inflation data updates (CPI and PPI) expected to confirm ongoing upward pressure on prices. Trade data and export/import figures amid US-China trade tensions and tariff negotiations. Bank of Japan policy meetings and statements for clues on monetary tightening pace. G7 finance ministers’ summit discussions, including currency and fiscal policy coordination. United States: US Treasury auctions and debt ceiling developments influencing bond supply and yields. Federal Reserve statements and economic data (inflation, employment) guiding interest rate expectations. Fiscal policy updates, including government spending and debt outlook affecting bond market sentiment. Summary Aspect Japan (JGB) United States (Treasury) 10-Year Yield ~1.24%–1.55%, rising with inflation ~4.5%, elevated due to Fed tightening Yield Differential (US - JP) ~3.0% to 3.3% — Monetary Policy BoJ cautiously tightening, inflation rising Fed aggressively tightening Market Concerns Fiscal deficits, auction demand, inflation Debt ceiling, inflation, Fed policy Key Upcoming Data Inflation, trade, BoJ meetings, G7 summit Inflation, employment, Fed policy, auctions Conclusion The large yield differential between US Treasuries and JGBs reflects diverging monetary policies amid rising inflation in both countries but more aggressive tightening in the US. JGB yields have risen sharply, especially on the long end, due to inflation and fiscal concerns, but remain well below US levels. Upcoming inflation data, central bank meetings, and fiscal developments in both Japan and the US will be critical in shaping bond yield trajectories and the USD/JPY exchange rate in the near term.
by Shavyfxhub
2
USDJPY Just Flipped — Liquidity Has a New Target🧠 Smart Money Breakdown: USDJPY | 15-Min Chart We’ve got a textbook bearish reversal setup forming right now on USDJPY, and Smart Money traders are paying close attention. 🔄 1. Change of Character (ChoCh) The first key sign was a ChoCh, which flipped the internal structure from bullish to bearish. This signals a potential shift in market control from buyers to sellers — Smart Money often initiates big moves after such a flip. 🟫 2. Bearish Order Block + Rejection Wick Price pulled back right into a fresh bearish Order Block (OB) around the 148.056–148.337 zone. This OB lines up perfectly with the upper trendline + internal liquidity area. Price is now rejecting hard from this level, signaling Smart Money sell-side pressure. 🕳 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below Below current price lies a clean FVG, serving as a magnet for price. Smart Money often targets these imbalances to rebalance the market. The gap extends from around 146.200 to 147.400 — with Sell Side Liquidity resting right below at 145.872. That’s the likely kill zone. 💀 📐 4. Trade Setup (R:R Approx. 3.5:1) 🔼 Entry Zone: 147.980–148.050 (inside OB) ❌ Stop Loss: Just above OB: 148.400 ✅ Target: 145.872 (Sell Side Liquidity sweep) Perfect for swing traders and intraday SMC setups. 📊 Strategy: Look for: Bearish engulfing candle confirmation Break of minor internal low (lower TF BOS) Entry on OB rejection with tight SL above high Bonus: Enter partials on FVG fill, hold runner to liquidity. 📎 Confluences: ✅ ChoCh confirmed ✅ Bearish OB ✅ Price rejecting from premium zone ✅ FVG below = imbalance magnet ✅ Sell-side liquidity clearly marked ⚠️ Risk Reminder: Let price show intent before jumping in Use confirmation, not assumption Trade what the chart says, not what you hope 🔚 Summary: Smart Money has flipped the script. With a strong ChoCh, OB rejection, and an FVG inviting price lower, this setup screams bearish continuation. 🔻 Expecting a clean run into liquidity. Stay sharp. 🧠 💬 Drop a “💀” if you’re eyeing the same setup. 📈 Follow for more clean SMC plays weekly.
Short
by ChartNinjas88
2
JPY/USD Weekly Chart – Bullish Triangle Breakout Pattern Forming🔍 Chart Pattern Breakdown: The chart is showing a symmetrical triangle pattern forming on the weekly timeframe of JPY/USD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar). This triangle is developing after a massive multi-year downtrend, which started all the way back in 2021. Such a triangle at the bottom of a trend often signals a potential reversal or a strong trend shift. Here's what's happening technically: 🔺 Triangle Formation (Consolidation Phase): Lower highs and higher lows indicate a clear symmetrical triangle. The price has been bouncing between these converging trendlines for months. This compression is like a spring — it’s storing energy and getting ready to break out. The triangle pattern is nearing its apex, which means a breakout is likely soon. 📉 Previous Trend Context: Before the triangle, the market had a strong bearish move — a downtrend that brought the pair into a major weekly support zone. This support zone (marked in light blue) around 0.0062–0.0063 has been tested and respected multiple times. 📊 Key Technical Zones: Support Zone: 0.0062 – 0.0063 — this is where price bounced and formed the base of the triangle. Resistance Zone / Triangle Top: Around 0.0071 – this is the upper boundary of the triangle. A breakout above this will confirm the bullish scenario. Target Area: 0.00829 – derived from measuring the height of the triangle and projecting it from the breakout point. Major BOS (Break of Structure): Once price breaks above the triangle and the BOS line, it confirms a shift from bearish to bullish structure. SL Zone: Stop loss area is just below the support zone at 0.00629 to protect against false breakouts. 🔁 Retest Setup: After the breakout, it's common to see a pullback to retest the previous resistance (now turned support). That retest often provides a high-probability entry for swing and position traders. If it happens — that’s your golden moment! 🎯 Trade Plan (Example for Education): Entry Criteria Value/Zone Breakout Entry Above 0.0071 (confirmed candle close) Retest Entry 0.0069 – 0.0070 (support flip) Stop-Loss (SL) Below 0.00629 Target (TP) 0.00829 ✅ Why This Setup Matters: Clear structure on the weekly chart. Multi-touch points on both trendlines = strong pattern. Support zone backing the triangle base gives extra conviction. A breakout from such consolidation patterns often results in sharp movements. Risk/reward ratio is highly favorable. ⚠️ Risk Management Reminder: Always trade with a plan, use a stop-loss, and don’t jump into the breakout blindly. Volume confirmation or retest confirmation will help increase the success rate. These kinds of setups are powerful, but only when approached with discipline. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This JPY/USD triangle on the weekly chart is a textbook example of potential bullish reversal from a major downtrend. It’s showing signs of a structural shift, supported by strong support, tightening price action, and the chance for a breakout to deliver a major upside move toward 0.00829. If you’re a swing or position trader, keep this on your radar. Momentum is building — don’t miss the move when the breakout hits. 📈🔥
Long
by GoldMasterTrades