Yen Slips as Fed Holds and Risks MountThe yen weakened past 145 on Thursday, nearing a three-week low as the stronger U.S. dollar gained support from the Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook. Concerns over Trump’s tariffs and Middle East tensions increased safe-haven demand for the dollar over the yen.
The BOJ also kept rates unchanged Tuesday and signaled a gradual asset reduction. Governor Ueda noted that rate hikes remain possible if inflation rises.
The key resistance is at $145.30 meanwhile the major support is located at $142.50.
USDJPY trade ideas
Yen Holds Ground as BoJ Stays CautiousThe yen held near 145.1 per dollar on Wednesday following three consecutive sessions of losses, weighed down by soft economic data and trade uncertainty. Japan’s exports declined in May for the first time in eight months, alongside drops in machinery orders and manufacturing sentiment. The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone, though Governor Ueda signaled future hikes remain possible. Trade talks between Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump at the G7 summit showed no progress on tariffs.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER DOLLAR.So we are in the midst of an international crisis. Middle eastern tensions are always bound to shake up the market so even with all the information; economic data and technical analysis. We should always expect surprises.
With that being said let's jump right into analysis of the dollar v yen pair.We have been range bound for the past two months in a wide range between 148.00and 141.00.I don't expect price jumping out of that range unless there is a very strong catalyst. This week's price range has seen lows of 143.90 and highs of 145.40 and this is the data we will use today to set our targets.A break lower for the dollar will subsequently mean lower targets for the dollar yen while a reverse in the dollar will take us to monthly high targets @ 146.00 and 147.00.
US retail sales data stands out | FX ResearchThe yen didn't move all that much but did manage to post a 4-day low against the buck after the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate as expected while planning to reduce bond purchases quarterly starting next fiscal year. BoJ Governor Ueda signaled potential rate hikes if economic and inflation forecasts held, but highlighted risks from U.S. tariffs, domestic food inflation, and weaker economic data expected in the second half of the year.
In global markets, the U.S. dollar remained stable. EUR/USD softened despite a strong German ZEW survey, and oil prices were relatively contained considering Middle East tensions and a tanker collision off the UAE coast.
U.S. stock futures are under a little pressure as Senate Republicans proposed tax cuts that could widen deficits, while upcoming U.S. retail sales data and ECB commentary on strengthening the euro’s global role have kept markets focused—also ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated Fed decision.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate UnchangedBank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
This morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged as widely expected. According to Forex Factory, the BOJ Policy Rate remains at 0.5%.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the following:
→ Japan’s economy is recovering moderately.
→ The Bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflationary conditions improve.
→ The situation surrounding trade tariffs remains highly uncertain.
The fact that the decision was anticipated by markets is reflected in price action on the charts.
Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart
A brief spike in volatility occurred on the USD/JPY chart this morning, but it did not significantly alter the broader structure of price movements, which in June have formed a contracting triangle pattern.
In recent days, the pair has been climbing from the lower boundary of the triangle toward the upper edge, forming a short-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue). However, in the near term, this bullish momentum may weaken as the USD/JPY rate approaches the upper boundary of the triangle, which coincides with the psychologically significant level of 145 yen to the dollar (indicated by arrows).
From a medium-term perspective, traders should watch for a potential breakout from the triangle pattern, which could trigger a meaningful trend. One possible catalyst could be news of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
fx pairs signals📈 2H Forex Reversion Setup: USDJPY & EURUSD Cross Confluence
This chart highlights a great example of inverse correlation confirmation between major FX pairs using the ELFIEDT X-REVERSION indicator.
✅ USDJPY gave a clean BUY signal at the low of the move, shortly before a major reversal kicked off.
✅ At the same time, EURUSD flashed multiple SELL signals at its high, confirming a strong rejection.
📍 This is how we look for directional confluence across pairs:
EURUSD moves up while USDJPY drops → both reach reversion zones
RSI reverses on both, with visual confirmation from signal labels
Strong shift in USD strength confirmed across charts
🧠 Key Insight: When a USD-based pair like USDJPY prints a buy while a pair like EURUSD prints a sell, it’s often a high-quality reversal zone. The more aggressive the move before, the better the reaction after.
💡 Use this kind of cross-checking to increase confidence and build multi-symbol precision.
Traders, it's time to pay close attention! 🚨 USDJPY 4H Setup Alert – High-Probability Play Unfolding! 🚨
Traders, it's time to pay close attention! 🧠📊
The USDJPY pair has just perfectly tapped into a key bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the 4-hour chart — a classic move in the smart money playbook. What’s more? We've just seen a clean sweep of internal range liquidity (IRL) — a textbook liquidity grab that signals potential accumulation by larger players. 💥💼
This is not just noise — it's a significant signal. The market structure is hinting at a possible shift in momentum, and bullish pressure is building. The trap has been set, the weak hands have been shaken out, and smart money may be preparing for a strong upward push. 📈🐂
🔮 What’s the next move?
All eyes are now on the external range liquidity (ERL) — a prime liquidity pool sitting above current price levels. If price accelerates toward it, this zone could act as the magnet and the catalyst for the next explosive move upward. 🚀
🔥 Key Points to Watch:
Bullish FVG reaction ✅
IRL liquidity swept ✅
Bullish market structure forming 🏗️
ERL liquidity resting overhead — potential target 🎯
Volume profile & order flow confirming accumulation? 👀
⚠️ Stay alert and don’t chase — let the setup come to you.
Smart money might already be stepping in, and if this momentum follows through, we could be witnessing the beginning of a strong leg up.
Mark your charts and monitor closely — opportunity is knocking. 📍🕵️♂️
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers.
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Key Points
- The armed conflict between Israel and Iran has continued for five days. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased as Iran reportedly conveyed its willingness to agree to a ceasefire indirectly to the United States.
- U.S. President Trump stated on Truth Social, "Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign, and everyone must immediately leave Tehran, the capital of Iran."
- The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and announced it will reduce long-term government bond purchases from the current 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen starting April next year.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ June 17: BOJ Interest Rate Decision, U.S. May Retail Sales
+ June 18: U.K. May Consumer Price Index, Eurozone May CPI, FOMC Meeting Results
+ June 19: BOE Interest Rate Decision
USDJPY Chart Analysis
There hasn’t been any major movement around the 144 level yet, but a clear trend is expected to emerge soon. An upward move is anticipated, and in that case, a peak is likely to form near the 148 level. Further direction will be determined once that zone is reached.
USDJPY Ready to Lift Off from Demand Zone – Breakout Brewing?The Dollar-Yen pair is trading at 144.05, showing signs of strength after bouncing off a strong daily demand zone around 140.55. Price has respected this zone several times since May, suggesting a solid base for a bullish move.
🟠 Key Demand Zone (Support): 140.55 – 141.00
🔵 Major Resistance Ahead:
• 150.63 (mid-range key level)
• 155.70 – 157.00 (supply zone & previous highs)
📈 Bullish Outlook:
If price holds above 140.55, we could see a breakout of the minor range consolidation heading into July. First target sits at 150.63, and further upside could see a retest of the supply zone around 156.
📉 Bearish Risk:
Failure to hold above 140.55 opens up room for a deeper correction — but strong demand and historical bullish reactions favor the bulls for now.
🔍 Why This Matters:
• Clean demand zone reaction
• Low volatility = possible expansion phase ahead
• JPY fundamentals remain weak, giving USD strength tailwind
💡 Watch for a breakout candle above recent consolidation highs to confirm the next leg upward.
📅 Timeframe: Daily (1D)
🧠 Tools: LuxAlgo Supply & Demand Visible Range
🚀 Will USDJPY rally toward 150+ or stall at mid-resistance? Let’s talk setups👇
#USDJPY #ForexSetup #SmartMoney #DailyChart #SupplyDemand #PriceAction #BreakoutTrade #TradingView #FrankFx #YenWatch #LuxAlgo
Stronger Dollar Pressures Yen on Geopolitical RisksThe Japanese yen fell past 144.2 per dollar on Monday, marking a second day of losses, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on increased safe-haven demand. This followed renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, with both sides targeting energy facilities and pushing oil prices higher. The rise in energy costs may reduce the chances of a near-term Fed rate cut as inflation and trade risks persist. Meanwhile, focus turns to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the inflation impact of rising oil prices amid global uncertainty.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Bounce Off the 50%Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 143.74, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 144.79, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 143.29, a pullback support.
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