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USDJPY trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 11, 2025 USDJPYThe dollar is holding steady at 146.500 against the yen: another rise in US yields and stable demand for safe US assets following comments from the Fed are fueling appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish. The tariff front exacerbates the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas for “umbrella” tariffs are heightening fears of a trade war, forcing investors to flow into financing currencies. Reuters notes that the yen weakened to 146.400, recording a weekly decline of more than 1%. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: a decline in inflation to 1.8% y/y and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. The divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machine tool orders, industrial production) until July 14 form the fundamental basis for the pair's growth to 147.500 and above, while the risks of correction are limited to the 145.900 zone. Trading recommendation: BUY 146.500, SL 145.900, TP 147.500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ABCHello traders! 👋 I hope you’re having a fantastic trading week so far. Let’s take a look at the USDJPY setup unfolding right now — and it’s all about classic symmetry. 📌 Setup Breakdown We’re seeing a textbook ABC Bearish Continuation: 🔹 AB: Sharp move down 🔹 BC: Clean correction back into structure 🔹 CD (Projected): Symmetrical to AB, aiming toward the target zone Price just tapped into the PCZ (Potential Completion Zone) around the 127.2%–161.8% fib projections — showing early rejection and setting up a potential move lower. 🎯 Target Zone First Objective: 100% projection (~145.35) Extended Target: 127.2% (~144.96) With structure clear and risk above C, the symmetry is doing all the talking. 🧠 Key Factors ✅ Classic ABC symmetry ✅ Strong reaction at PCZ ✅ Risk well-defined ✅ Trend continuation potential No guesswork — just measured movement within structure. 💬 Final Thoughts If this plays out, it would be a clean continuation play in line with the overall flow. As always, let the chart guide you — not emotion. 📚 Pattern → Zone → Reaction → Follow-through Wishing everyone smooth trades ahead. Let’s keep it simple and professional.
Short
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
USDJPY| 15| Liquidity Grab + Choch reaction Price formed a basic CHoCH after sweeping sell-side liquidity and creating a temporary low. A short setup was taken from a lower timeframe supply zone, aligned with bearish order flow and rejection at imbalance. 🔹 Sell-side Liquidity Sweep 🔹 CHoCH Confirmation 🔹 Rejection from Supply 🔹 Expecting bearish continuation if price holds below 146.52 Invalidation: If price closes above the LQ CHoCH zone, I’ll shift bias to longs. Until then, I’m holding the short narrative. #SMC #USDJPY #OrderFlow #LiquiditySweep #FXTradingClub #PriceAction #CHoCH
Short
by sam_trades_smc
USD/JPY: A High-Clarity Setup in a Coiling MarketFor weeks, the market has been choppy and difficult, grinding accounts down with indecisive price action. Many traders are getting stomped by the noise. This post is designed to cut through that chaos with a single, high-clarity trade idea based on a powerful fundamental story and a clean technical picture. The focus is on the USD/JPY, where a major catalyst (US CPI) is about to meet a tightly coiling chart pattern. The Fundamental Why 📰 Our entire thesis is now supported by both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The core driver is the profound monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan, which manifests as a powerful Interest Rate Differential. The Core Driver: The Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-easy policy while the Fed is in a "hawkish hold," creating a significant interest rate gap of over 400 basis points that fuels the carry trade. Quantitative Validation: Our new analysis confirms this is the primary driver. We found a strong positive correlation of 0.54 between the USD/JPY exchange rate and this Interest Rate Differential. This provides a robust, data-backed reason for our long bias. This creates a fundamental chasm between the two currencies, representing a compelling long-term tailwind for USD/JPY. The Technical Picture 📊 The 4-hour chart perfectly visualizes the market's current state. The Coiled Spring: Price is consolidating in a tight symmetrical triangle. This represents a balance between buyers and sellers and a build-up of energy. A breakout is imminent. The Demand Zone: Our entry is not random. We are targeting a dip into the key demand zone between 144.50 - 144.80. This area is significant because it aligns with the 50-day moving average, a level that offers a more favorable risk/reward ratio. The Underlying Conflict: It's important to note the long-term bearish "Death Cross" on the daily chart (50 MA below 200 MA). Our thesis is that the immense fundamental pressure—now validated by our quantitative study—will be strong enough to overwhelm this lagging technical signal. The Plan & Setup 🎯 This is a conditional setup, and our analysis confirms the proposed levels are well-reasoned. We are waiting for the market to confirm our thesis before entering. The Setup: 📉 Long (Buy) USD/JPY. We are looking for price to dip into our demand zone and then break out of the triangle to the upside. Entry Zone: 👉 144.50 - 144.80. Watch for a 4H candle to show support in this area. Stop Loss: ⛔️ 144.00. A break below this level would signal that the immediate bullish structure has failed and invalidates the trade thesis. Take Profit: 🎯 149.50. This target is strategically set just below the major 150.00 psychological handle, a level where institutional orders are likely clustered. This setup provides a clear, logical plan to engage with the market's next big move. It's all signal, no noise. Trade smart, and manage your risk.
Long
by MaxellAguiran
USD/JPY Long Trade SetupBuy dips - 146.50-146.60 Stop Loss -145.80 - Below retest zone; invalidates breakout. TP-1 148.80 - Scale 50 % Pattern target / June high cluster. TP-2 150.00 - Round-number magnet, option strikes. Rationale The dollar-yen cross has snapped out of its early-summer drift and vaulted back above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since February, reaching ¥147.19 on 9 July – a two-and-a-half-week high – as the greenback rides an upswing in U.S. yields and tariff-driven inflation fears. The technical breakout puts the familiar 148.00/150.00 band – the June swing high and the psychological round number – back in play for trend-followers over the next several sessions. Policy divergence as wide as ever Federal Reserve – higher-for-longer: Minutes from the June FOMC showed staff pushing inflation projections higher and flagging “upside risks” should tariff pass-through accelerate, reinforcing the market’s view that rate cuts will be pushed into Q4 at the earliest. Five straight sessions of rising Treasury yields have followed, lifting the 10-year to 4.45 % and widening the U.S.–Japan real-rate gap. Bank of Japan – stuck on hold: Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai told Reuters the central bank will “wait at least until March 2026” before considering another hike, as Trump’s 25 % tariff on Japanese goods (effective 1 August) clouds the export outlook and will likely force the BOJ to cut its growth forecast at the 31 July Outlook Report. With headline CPI still only just above target and real wages contracting.
Long
by TerraBullMarkets
Yen Falls After Trump's 25% Tariff on JapanThe Japanese yen weakened beyond 146 per dollar on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low after President Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1, lower than the earlier 35% threat but still above the standard 10%. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba pledged to keep negotiating for a favorable outcome. Although Japan’s May current account surplus came in stronger than expected, disappointing wage growth limited hopes for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, adding pressure on the yen. Key resistance is at 146.20; major support at 144.85.
by ChartMage
USDJPY Structural Analysis : Breakout Demand Play + Target🗺️ Market Structure & Key Technical Zones On the USDJPY 4-hour timeframe, the market is clearly respecting smart money levels and giving us an ideal case study of institutional demand, trend continuation, and liquidity engineering. 🔰 1. Major Support Zone (142.500 – 143.200): This zone acted as a high-value area where price consolidated previously before rallying. It has been tested multiple times and each touch has led to a strong bullish reaction, indicating accumulation by large players. Think of this zone as the market’s base camp — when price visits it, big money steps in to reload longs. 🔰 2. Channel Formation & Breakout: A clean bullish channel formed mid-June, with price respecting both bounds while gradually climbing. Once the channel was broken with strong volume (noted by the breakout candle), it suggested a shift from controlled bullish flow to an impulsive move — a change in pace that often indicates smart money is active. 🧱 Institutional Concepts in Action 🔵 QFL (Quick Flip Level): This area marks a prior consolidation or sideways action that gets aggressively broken. In this chart, price dipped to a QFL zone then sharply reversed — suggesting a trap for early shorts and a liquidity grab before moving up. A classic “manipulation → accumulation → expansion” sequence. 🟦 Breaker Demand (BR Demand): This is where previous resistance has flipped into new support. Breaker blocks are extremely important in identifying where institutions may re-enter positions. Price respected this area before continuing higher — confirming bullish control. Price tapped into this BR demand, showed low-wick rejections, and moved strongly, signaling confidence from large orders. 📊 Volume Burst Zone (~147.2–147.7): This zone has historically seen high volume and sudden price acceleration. Price is re-approaching it now. This is where a lot of pending orders and take-profits are likely clustered — expect strong reactions here. 📈 Current Price Action Price is climbing along a clean bullish trendline, reinforcing current momentum. Price has broken previous structure highs and is now making higher highs and higher lows — a textbook bullish trend. Buyers are in control as long as the price continues to respect: The bullish trendline The BR demand zone (~145.5) 🔮 Projection & Potential Scenarios 🟢 Bullish Continuation Case: If current momentum holds, the price is likely to push toward the Next Reversal Zone (148.500–149.000). This zone aligns with multiple confluences: Fibonacci extension targets Previous high liquidity trap zone Potential institutional profit-taking level Expect this zone to cause a reversal or deep pullback. 🔴 Bearish Breakdown Case: If price breaks below the BR Demand Zone and closes under the trendline, expect a drop back toward the Central Zone (~144.8–145.0), or even deeper into the Major Support Zone. This would shift market structure back to neutral or bearish depending on volume and rejection patterns. 📌 Summary: ✅ Bias: Bullish 🎯 Short-Term Target: 147.5 (volume burst area) 🧱 Key Support: 145.50 (breaker demand) ❗ Trendline Break = Red Flag 🏁 Final Reversal Zone: 148.500–149.000 💬 Final Thoughts This chart is a brilliant example of smart money accumulation and market engineering. USDJPY continues to respect well-defined zones, presenting high-probability opportunities for traders who understand structure and patience. This setup is NOT about chasing price — it's about following the footprints of volume, breakout structure, and institutional intent. Stick to the plan and manage risk around key invalidation zones.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 8, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure from trade frictions. President Donald Trump has confirmed 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods effective 1 August, fuelling U.S.-inflation expectations and reducing the odds of a near-term Fed rate cut. Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 4.45 percent, while the spread over equivalent JGBs hovers near 380 basis points—supportive for the dollar. Japan’s domestic backdrop offers little relief. Nominal wage growth has slowed for a third straight month, and real household incomes have posted their deepest decline in twenty months. The weak earnings momentum complicates the Bank of Japan’s exit strategy and keeps ultra-loose policy firmly in place, encouraging further capital outflows from the yen. Against this backdrop, USD/JPY is consolidating above its 100-day moving average around 146.40–146.50. Absent a sudden flight to safe-haven assets, the pair could break 147.00 in the coming sessions, while the 145.950–146.000 zone is widely viewed as an attractive area to add to long positions. Trading recommendation: BUY 146.250, SL 145.950, TP 147.000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 145.21, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 146.70, aligning with the 100% Fibo projection. The stop loss is placed at 144.01, a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump has officially announced that he will sign an executive order extending the reciprocal tariff suspension deadline to August 1st. - Through a post on Truth Social, President Trump revealed that he had first sent tariff letters to allies South Korea and Japan, addressed directly to their heads of state, stating that a 25% tariff would be imposed on both countries starting August 1st. - Hajime Takata, a member of Japan’s Monetary Policy Board, hinted at the possibility of additional rate hikes, stating: “If solid capital investment, wage increases, and the sustainability of price pass-through can be confirmed, we will need to shift gears one step at a time.” This Week's Major Economic Events + July 8: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision + July 9: Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes + July 10: Germany’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) + July 11: UK May GDP Report USDJPY Chart Analysis The pair rebounded near the 142 level, showing upward momentum. This appears to reflect the impact of Trump’s announcement of high tariffs on Japan. If negotiations proceed, the upward trend may stall. In such a scenario, a potential high around 148 is likely. However, if the 148 level is breached, there could be an additional rally toward the 151 level.
Long
by shawntime_academy
USDJPY: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why: Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USDJPY pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
1
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 7 July 2025 - USDJPY reversed from long-term support level 142.50 - Likely to rise to resistance level 148.00 USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the long-term support level 142.50 (which has been steadily reversing the price from August of 2024, as can be seen from the daily USDJPY chart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the end of June. Given the strength of the support level 142.50 and the strongly bearish yen sentiment seen today, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 148.00 (top of the previous waves 4, (1) and 1).
Long
by FxProGlobal