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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Consolidation Midweek Rally #6.1 (Friday Trade)On Wednesday, price touched the April 29 breaker block, which led me to expect that Friday's price action wouldn't surpass Wednesday’s high. Additionally, since it’s close to month-end, the odds of upward movement tend to decrease. Trade: On Friday, price fell short of expectations but still provided an opportunity to secure some profits. With a 30-pip stop loss, we can lock in profits while still aiming for target 2. However, it’s best to take partial profits, as Monday and Tuesday have the potential to push higher. Future Value: If Monday holds without breaking lower, Tuesday could potentially exceed both Monday's high (28.10.24) and Wednesday’s weekly high (23.10.24)
by Bufalodorato
Tokyo Core CPI complicates BoJ’s rate plansThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.09%. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of inflation trends in Japan, fell to 1.8% y/y in October, down from 2% in September and just above the market estimate of 1.7%. This marked a second straight deceleration and was the lowest level since April. A key service inflation indicator also slowed in October, dropping from 2.7% to 2.6%, a four-month low. The decline in inflation is a disappointment for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation remain sustainable around its 2% target before its raises interest rates on the path towards normalization. The BoJ meets next week and is expected to maintain rates. The central bank will release growth and inflation forecasts which could provide insights into future monetary policy. The cautious BoJ is unlikely to raise rates until early next unless inflation reverses its current downtrend and pushes higher. The US wraps up the week with core durable goods orders and UoM consumer sentiment. The manufacturing sector has contracted for four straight months and core durable goods orders are expected to fall 1% in September, after no change in August. The UoM consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 68.9 in October, compared to 70.1 a month earlier. Consumers are unhappy about high inflation and there is uncertainty over the US election, with an extremely tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.5207. The next resistance line is 152.58 151.30 and 150.79 are providing support
by OANDA
USDJPY: Potential for a Slight Bearish Bias Amid Key FundamentalUSDJPY: Potential for a Slight Bearish Bias Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (25/10/2024) Today, the USDJPY currency pair could experience a slight bearish bias, driven by recent shifts in both the Japanese and U.S. economic landscape. Here’s a breakdown of the factors contributing to this potential trend, along with insights into what traders should watch as the day unfolds. 1. Bank of Japan’s Potential Shift in Policy The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy stance for years, but recent signals suggest a possible move towards tightening. Japanese inflation rates have gradually risen, and with core inflation holding steady above target levels, the BoJ may finally consider adjusting its dovish stance. Any indication of a shift toward a more hawkish BoJ, even if gradual, could support the JPY, creating downward pressure on the USDJPY pair. 2. US Dollar Weakness on Federal Reserve Pause Speculation The US Dollar (USD) has softened recently as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes. U.S. economic data has shown signs of cooling inflation, and Fed officials have hinted that a pause could be on the horizon, given recent macroeconomic indicators. A dovish tone from the Fed typically weakens the USD, thus enhancing the relative strength of the JPY. This potential softening in the dollar is an essential factor in the slight bearish bias for USDJPY. 3. Market Sentiment Shifting Towards Safe-Haven Assets Investor sentiment is currently tilted toward safe-haven assets, largely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertain global economic conditions. While the USD is also a safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen (JPY) often gains favor when there’s heightened uncertainty in markets, especially in Asia. This risk-averse sentiment is driving investors to seek the JPY, which could contribute to additional downward momentum in the USDJPY pair today. 4. Technical Indicators Suggest Resistance for USDJPY From a technical perspective, USDJPY is encountering resistance around the 150.00 level. This is a critical psychological threshold, and the pair’s failure to break above this level reinforces a potential bearish sentiment. With Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels approaching overbought territory, a bearish correction might be anticipated. Additionally, a dip below the 149.00 support level could confirm this outlook and signal further downside potential. Summary: Slight Bearish Bias for USDJPY Today’s fundamental factors suggest a slight bearish bias for USDJPY, largely due to potential changes in Bank of Japan policy, a softer US Dollar from Federal Reserve pause speculation, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Technical resistance at key levels also reinforces the likelihood of a bearish tilt for the pair. Traders should watch for real-time updates on BoJ announcements, Fed commentary, and any developments in geopolitical news that could impact USDJPY direction. --- Keywords 1. USDJPY forecast 2. Bank of Japan policy 3. US Dollar analysis 4. Fed rate pause 5. USDJPY bearish trend 6. Forex trading insights 7. Safe-haven assets 8. Japanese Yen strength 9. USDJPY technical levels
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
10/25 ! USD JPY ! touch trend set up SELL USD/ JPY trend forecast October 25, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) failed to build on Thursday’s recovery and faced renewed selling pressure during Friday's Asian session. Japan's business activity data for October showed a contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, a drop in Tokyo’s core inflation below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target lowered expectations for further rate hikes in 2024, weighing on the JPY. A positive market sentiment and US Dollar (USD) buying also supported the USD/JPY pair around the mid-151.00s. However, verbal intervention by Japanese authorities helped limit further JPY losses. Traders now await US economic data for short-term direction amid political uncertainty before Japan’s general election on Sunday. H1 frame shows the price zone is adjusting - touching the trendline, continuing to adjust down /// SELL USDJPY : zone 151.850 - 152.050 SL: 152.500 TP: 50 - 100 - 250 pips (149.550) Safe and profitable trading
Short
by Moon-ForexAcademy
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) failed to capitalise on the previous day's recovery move against its US counterpart, attracting fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday. The latest data, published on Thursday, revealed a contraction in business activity across Japan's manufacturing and services sectors in October. Furthermore, the decline in Tokyo's core inflation rate below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target has led to a reduction in expectations of additional rate hikes in 2024, placing some pressure on the yen. Furthermore, the prevailing positive sentiment towards risk factors is eroding the JPY's status as a safe haven currency. This, coupled with the emergence of some US dollar (USD) buying, is providing support for the USD/JPY pair near the mid-151.000 level. However, the recent verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities is helping to prevent a significant drop in the JPY and limit the currency pair's decline. In light of the upcoming general election in Japan on Sunday, traders are monitoring the release of macroeconomic data from the US for short-term momentum amid ongoing political uncertainty. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 152.000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY ** USD/JPY Trade Plan 🚀 **Breakout Trade**: - **Entry**: 152.40-152.50 - **Stop-Loss**: 151.00-151.20 - **Target**: 153.50-154.00 - **Recommendation**: Enter this trade only if the price breaks above 152.50, confirming strong bullish momentum. Watch for a sustained break before entering. 📉 **Pullback Trade**: - **Entry**: 150.20-150.50 - **Stop-Loss**: 149.50 - **Target**: 152.50 (Short-Term), 153.50-154.00 (Long-Term) - **Recommendation**: If the price pulls back to this support level, consider entering. Set a tighter stop-loss to minimize risk in case of continued downward pressure. 🔎 **Fundamental Analysis**: - **USD Strength**: The U.S. dollar is strong right now, supported by high bond yields and solid economic growth. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2024, the dollar remains resilient for now. - **JPY Weakness**: The yen remains weak due to the Bank of Japan’s low-interest-rate policy. The upcoming BOJ meeting on Oct 31 could bring some volatility if any changes to monetary policy are announced. 💡 **Impact**: - If the **USD stays strong**, USD/JPY could continue to rise as investors favor the higher yields in the U.S. - If the **BOJ changes policy** or U.S. interest rates fall, it could cause the yen to strengthen, leading to a potential trend reversal in USD/JPY. **Final Recommendation**: - **Breakout Strategy**: Look for a strong close above **152.50** before entering. - **Pullback Strategy**: Watch for a bounce at **150.20-150.50** and be cautious of BOJ-related volatility. Use tighter stops for risk management.
Long
by azizy73
2
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching pullback supportUSD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 150.86 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 148.70 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 154.94 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
3
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Education
by AfaqKhan111
USDJPY RETEST COMPLETE?Interest Rate Differentials: If the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates or signals a more hawkish stance compared to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the U.S. dollar (USD) may strengthen against the Japanese yen (JPY) as investors seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets. Economic Data: Positive economic indicators from the U.S., such as strong GDP growth, low unemployment, or robust consumer spending, can boost confidence in the USD, making it more attractive compared to the JPY. Safe Haven Flows: While the JPY is traditionally a safe-haven currency, during periods of global economic uncertainty, if investors perceive the U.S. economy as more stable, they may favor the USD. Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment in equity markets can lead to risk-taking behavior, prompting investors to move away from safe havens like the JPY and into riskier assets, further supporting the USD. Geopolitical Factors: Political stability in the U.S. compared to Japan, or significant geopolitical events, can also influence currency strength, pushing traders to favor the USD. Overall, a combination of these factors can contribute to a bullish outlook for USD/JPY.
Long
by MarshallJay
2