USDJPY trade ideas
ShortI had a few failed short trades in the last few weeks for this pair.
My overall bias is bearish and I must admit having a strong bias cost me. I was too eager to execute a trade and I ended up front running and instead of reacting to the price action.
This morning, I opened two short positions (1 position size divided into two) for USDJPY .
Trade set up:
Entry: 150.945Stop Loss: 151.458
Target 1: 149.680 (blue horizontal line - previous week open price, Fair value gap and order block in 4H) Target 2: 148.306 (Previous week low, fair value gap )
Reasons for short entry:
Weekly:
The price had broken and closed below the previous low at 148.65. It went up again but it is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone.
RSI is starting to enter the bear territory.
Daily:
The price is still below EMA 200 and is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone.
RSI line is still in the bear zone.
4H:
The price dropped and closed below the ascending trendline.
I like the candlestick formations at the FVG - very small candles with upper wicks followed by a large engulfing candle. (1H is better to see the price movement). Sorry, I forgot the name of this formation! RSI is presenting negative divergence.
Ideally, it is better to wait for the price to drop, retest and close below 200EMA in 4H and 4H RSI to dive into bear territory. However, I felt there are enough confluences to support my bias and I like the risk:reward for this set up. Therefore, I decided to open a short position, but my position size is small.
Please let me know what you think.
USD/JPY - Potential TargetsDear Fellow Traders,
This major pair has the potential for a "SHORT" - RSI Divergence.
Upside is limited in the short term.
A strong quality breakout is necessary, either way.
Feel free to ask if anything is unclear.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
USDJPY has formed a head and shoulders bottom patternOn the 4-hour chart, USDJPY formed a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern and then stabilized upward, with a short-term bullish trend. Currently, the effective support below is around 149.5, and it is expected to continue to rise if it falls back and does not break. The upper resistance is around 152.3, and after breaking through, the upper resistance is around 154.5.
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 28, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today:
14:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index
USDJPY:
On Friday, during the Asian session, the Japanese yen (JPY) fell to a near four-week low against its US counterpart. This was due to concerns that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could affect key domestic exports. However, the release of robust consumer inflation data from Tokyo provided a welcome respite for those anticipating a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), potentially paving the way for further interest rate hikes. The BoJ's opinion summary also indicates that a rate hike remains a possibility should the economy and prices align with forecasts.
Additionally, the prevailing risk-off environment, triggered by Trump's imposition of auto tariffs late Wednesday, has served to support the safe-haven yen, leading to a fall in the USD/JPY pair below 151.00 in the last hour. However, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip buying could support the currency pair and help limit further losses. Additionally, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach, preferring to observe the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index to ascertain the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting intentions.
Trade recommendation: BUY 151.000, SL 150.400, TP 151.750
USD/JPY Trend Coming Up - Further Upward?🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news:
➡️ Hawkish bets on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have been fueled by expectations of further wage hikes. Last week, Japan’s largest labor union group, Rengo, reported that companies had agreed to a 5.4% wage increase this year.
➡️ Although investors have supported the USD against the JPY, the greenback has underperformed against other currencies following President Donald Trump’s implementation of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles to the U.S., set to take effect on April 2.
➡️ Higher tariffs will mainly burden American importers, who are likely to pass the costs onto consumers. Such a scenario could drive inflation in the U.S. economy, eroding household purchasing power.
➡️ Fears of resurging inflationary pressures and a slowdown in U.S. economic growth has prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a cautious stance.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Japan is affected by US auto tariffs because its economy relies heavily on auto exports. Higher tariffs make Japanese cars more expensive in the US, reducing demand, reducing sales for automakers and potentially leading to job losses and slowing economic growth. So it makes sense for the JPY to weaken relative to the USD
➡️Analyze based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with trend lines and EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy USD/JPY 150.67- 150.55
❌SL: 1.50.20 | ✅TP: 151.10 – 151.60– 151.95
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USDJPYWe've got this massive inverted head and shoulder on the daily and h4 that has been forming for a full month. Major upside movement very soon. Keep a look out.
USDJPY 15M LAST PUMP TO UPSIDE BEFORE MASSIVE CRASHWe have few more up to go, still i see bearish sign LONG TERM
But we have unfinish business around 151.65-151.87 (WHICH WILL BE VERY GOOD AREA TO SELL, IF WE GET SELLING FORMATION CANDLE)
Good luck
USD/JPY Technical Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)Market Overview:
Trend: Bullish
Divergence: Bearish
Continuation Pattern: Bullish
Reversal Pattern: None
Harmonics: AB=CD Formation
Trade Plan:
You are taking a short-term long entry from point B to D based on the bullish trend continuation. A Buy Stop order is placed at 150.963, with a Stop Loss at 150.001 and Take Profit at 151.925 (Potential Reversal Zone).
Scenario Analysis:
Current Approach:
Entering a buy trade from B to D, following the bullish trend.
Watching price action closely as it reaches the Potential Reversal Zone (151.925).
Next Steps:
If the price continues to break higher above 151.925, you will reanalyze the chart for further trend continuation opportunities.
If the price shows reversal signs at the Potential Reversal Zone, you will look for a short (sell) setup, aligning with the bearish divergence and reversal pattern (AB=CD).
Conclusion:
For now, you are riding the bullish trend from B to D while keeping an eye on 151.925 as a key resistance level. If a reversal occurs at this level, you will evaluate a sell trade setup in the downtrend.
This approach ensures a disciplined trading strategy, adapting to market conditions.
Switch Hit on USDJPYLong position from earlier in the day got hit for a stop loss. Risking the other way for a possible reversal in this market
UsdjpyUsdjpy as we can see we have a very strong bullish movement to the upside we have the 1 day to 15 minutes on de uptrend so we buy more
Yen Steady Near 150.7 as Dollar StrengthensThe Japanese yen hovered near 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Concerns grew over Japan’s exports following Trump’s proposed tariffs on autos and pharmaceuticals. BOJ minutes showed officials remain open to future rate hikes, with one member suggesting a 1% rate by late FY2025. The central bank kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, citing global uncertainties.
Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
USD/JPY Buy Setup – Inverted Head & Shoulders chart pattern📌 **USD/JPY Buy Setup – Inverted Head & Shoulders** 📌
🔹 **Pattern:** 📈 **Inverted Head & Shoulders** (Bullish Reversal Signal)
🔹 **Entry Point:** ✅ **150.500** (Neckline breakout confirmation recommended)
🔹 **Target:** 🎯 **153.800** (Measured move projection from pattern breakout)
🔹 **Stop Loss:** 🔍 Ideally **below 149.800** (Neckline retest zone or recent swing low)
### 📊 **Analysis & Risk Management:**
✅ **Confluence Factors:**
- **Bullish Chart Pattern:** Inverted H&S suggests trend reversal.
- **DXY Strength:** If USD remains strong, it supports this setup.
- **Yield Differentials:** Watch US-Japan bond yields, as rising US yields boost USD/JPY.
✅ **Risk-Reward Ratio:** ~ **1:5**, making it a high-probability trade.
✅ **Trade Management:**
- If price retests **150.500** after breakout, it could be a strong entry confirmation.
- Secure profits gradually (e.g., **TP1: 152.000**, **TP2: 153.000**, **TP3: 153.800**).
- Use **trailing stop-loss** to lock in gains as price moves higher.
🚨 **Market Caution:**
📅 **Fundamental Watch:** Monitor key news such as:
- **BoJ Policy Decisions** (Any intervention risk if JPY weakens too much)
- **US Economic Data** (CPI, NFP, Fed Statements)
- **Global Risk Sentiment** (If risk-off, JPY may strengthen unexpectedly)
🔥 **Final Tip:** Confirm entry with bullish candle patterns & volume spike on breakout for added confidence.
Happy Trading! 🚀📈💰
USDJPY POSSIBLE BUY OPPORTUNITY Price continues to rise in H1 timeframe as we recently saw a close above 150.579 area. A buy opportunity is envisaged from the current market price. Our target profit is at the area of 151.310
UJ 5 Star shortfor me this is a 5 star trade, UJ going up into a R1 resistance area @150.25 on par with the recent down trendline from the 1 hour and the overall trend. A 1 hour candle close above 150.31 would cancel this trade for me
Usdjpy buy limit trade setup Usdjpy has broken structure and has pulled back to our 1hr decisional orderblock and has given a 15min internal ChOCh, best believe, we are all set to rally to the upside, buy limit set and hopefully Asian session drives prices a little lower to trigger our entry before the rally
usd/jpy 15 min price break out analysisUSD/JPY price break out analysis on the 15min TF.
Break-out trade on the 15min time frame. Waiting for our indication to form.
Japan's Tariff Worries and BOJ Rate Hike HintsThe Japanese yen remained weak around 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as the U.S. dollar gained strength. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors raised concerns for Japan’s export-driven economy.
BOJ minutes from January showed officials remain open to future rate hikes depending on wage and inflation trends, with one member suggesting a possible increase to 1% in late fiscal 2025. Still, the BOJ kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, maintaining a cautious stance with global tensions.
Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders BreakdownThis JPY/USD 4-hour chart showcases a Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a well-known bearish reversal pattern signaling a potential downtrend after an extended bullish run. The breakdown of the neckline support and the trendline breakout are key confirmations of a shift in momentum, making this a high-probability trading setup.
📌 1️⃣ Understanding the Head & Shoulders Pattern
The Head & Shoulders pattern is a classic reversal structure that forms after a prolonged uptrend. It consists of three peaks:
Left Shoulder: The first peak forms as buyers push the price higher, followed by a pullback.
Head: The price rallies again, making a higher peak, but sellers start to gain strength, causing another pullback.
Right Shoulder: A lower high is formed as buying pressure weakens, signaling exhaustion of the uptrend.
This pattern is significant because it suggests that bullish momentum is fading and that a potential trend reversal is underway.
📌 2️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Bearish Confirmation
Before the formation of the Head & Shoulders, the market was in a strong uptrend, supported by a rising trendline (dashed black line).
The price respected this trendline multiple times, acting as dynamic support.
However, after the right shoulder formation, the price broke below the trendline, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.
A trendline breakout after a reversal pattern strengthens the bearish case, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement.
📌 3️⃣ Key Resistance & Support Levels
Understanding the key price levels is essential for determining trade entries, stop-loss placements, and target zones.
📍 Resistance Zone (Stop-Loss Area):
0.006776 is the recent high and a key resistance level where sellers previously stepped in.
If the price reclaims this level, the bearish thesis could be invalidated, making it a logical place to set a stop-loss.
This level also aligns with the Head of the pattern, further reinforcing it as a strong supply zone.
📍 Support Level (Neckline Zone):
The neckline (horizontal support zone) was previously holding as support but has now been broken.
If the price pulls back to this area and rejects it, it could serve as a strong entry point for short trades.
A confirmed retest of the neckline would validate the breakdown, increasing the likelihood of a further decline.
📍 Bearish Target (Profit-Taking Zone):
The price is projected to decline toward 0.006457, which is derived by measuring the height of the Head & Shoulders pattern and projecting it downward.
This level also coincides with historical support, making it a strong take-profit area.
If bearish momentum continues, further downside targets may come into play.
📌 4️⃣ Trading Plan – Execution Strategy
This setup provides a clear structure for planning a high-probability short trade.
✅ Entry Strategy:
Option 1 (Aggressive Entry): Enter a short trade immediately after the breakdown of the neckline.
Option 2 (Conservative Entry): Wait for a retest of the broken neckline as resistance before entering a short position.
🚀 Stop-Loss Placement:
Above 0.006776 (recent resistance & Head of the pattern).
Ensures protection from a potential false breakout.
🎯 Take-Profit Strategy:
First target: 0.006457 (measured move of the pattern).
Extended target: Lower psychological support if momentum continues downward.
📌 5️⃣ Market Sentiment & Additional Considerations
While this technical setup suggests a bearish outlook, traders should also consider:
🔸 Fundamental Factors: Economic data releases, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events can impact market sentiment.
🔸 Volume Confirmation: A high-volume breakout strengthens the bearish bias, whereas weak volume may indicate a potential fake-out.
🔸 RSI & Momentum Indicators: Checking if the RSI is in overbought territory or showing bearish divergence can provide further confidence in the setup.
🔸 Psychological Levels: Traders should watch for price reactions near key round numbers, as these often act as support/resistance.
📌 6️⃣ Conclusion – Why This Setup is High Probability
This JPY/USD 4H chart presents a well-defined Head & Shoulders pattern, a classic reversal setup that indicates a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The trendline breakout and neckline breach reinforce the bearish bias, making this a high-probability short trade opportunity.
💡 Key Takeaways:
✅ A confirmed trendline break + H&S pattern indicates a bearish reversal.
✅ Watch for a neckline retest as a potential short entry.
✅ Bearish target: 0.006457 with stop-loss above 0.006776.
✅ Consider fundamental factors & market sentiment for additional confirmation.
🔽 Overall Bias: Bearish 📉
#JPYUSD #ForexTrading #HeadAndShoulders #PriceAction #TradingSetup #TrendReversal
USD/JPY increaseI believe that increase USD/JPY pair. Based on the analysis, you can enter a buy position on USD/JPY with a small risk margin!
USD/JPY – Key Resistance Tested After Strong RallyThe USD/JPY pair has been in a steady uptrend after finding support near the 147.800 level, leading to a breakout above key levels. The price is currently testing a significant resistance zone around 150.500, where previous rejections occurred.
Key Levels to Watch:
📌 Resistance: 150.500 (current test), 155.500, 156.500
📌 Support: 147.800
If buyers sustain momentum above 150.500, we could see a move toward the 155.500 - 156.500 zone. However, rejection at this level could trigger a pullback toward 147.800 support.
Traders should monitor price action at this level to determine whether a breakout or rejection occurs.
What are your thoughts? Will USD/JPY break higher, or are we due for a pullback? 🚀📉
USDJPY Resistance ahead !!! Cool down.USDJPY is facing the resistance in the uptrend channel has reached higher high of the channel and will cool down today.
