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USDJPY trade ideas

USD JPY Monthly Prospective Analysis up to 2060 (updated)This is the idea combined with elliott wave theory(I forgot to mention in the previous upload, but, in my chart, the number 2 wave corresponds to the 3 in the elliott and the 3 to the 5. The number 1 wave is the same as the 1 in the elliott). Up to 2027 the trend is down, bounced at around 85 and then going up all the way to reach around 170 (maybe does not reach 200 yen this time, that would be accomplished more than about 50 years later). Hope to live long to see if its correct!
Short
by slowdive430
UJ Bears Break Andrew's Pitchfork, Time To Short??Based on the Aug. 5th Low (A), Aug. 15th High (B) & Sept. 16th Low (C) we are able to project an Up-trending Andrew's Pitchfork. After price makes a Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio (61.8%) of the Pitchfork Range, price falls to the Previous High or Point of Interest finding support to then rise and stall out at the Linear Regression or True Trendline of the Pitchfork and is unable to sustain the Higher High to only fall again while this time breaking the Rising Support of the Pitckfork. Price may continue to fall to the POI before finding support again @ the 148 - 149 range but we should expect price to retest the Break of Rising Support @ the 155 - 156 range. -If support turns resistance and holds price, this will deliver great shorting opportunities to take down to the POI and potentially all the way to the Range Target of 139 - 142! *If price ascends back into the Pitchfork range, price action is considered a False Breakout. Fundamentally, so far Feb. has been a trying month for USD where we saw last Friday, Non-Farm Employment Change came in @ 143k ( 164k Decrease from last month @ 307k which was revised up from 256k) with only a .1% down tick in Unemployment to 4%. This Week: USD Tues - Powell Speaks Wed - Core CPI/CPI, Powell Testifies Thus - Core PPI/PPI, Unemployment Claims Fri - Core Retail Sales/Retails Sales
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
Signs of USD Weakness, JPY Strength Resuming?After a choppy start to the week for USDJPY and JPY Crosses, such as EURJPY, with traders bombarded with headlines related to trade tariffs and retaliatory measures, the back end of the week has seen some USDJPY downside emerge as general long dollar positions are scaled back, and economic data from Japan has provided support for the view that the country’s central bank may be able to keep raising interest rates. Much stronger than expected wage growth and household spending updates from Japan this week, alongside comments from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) most hawkish committee member which started interest rates should rise from the current 0.5% level up to at least 1% in the next year have combined to boost the JPY side of the USDJPY pair. While this has helped USDJPY touch a low at 150.95 early this morning, and EURJPY a low at 156.75 we must not forget its US Non-farm Payrolls Day, the outcome of which could generate large price swings up or down when it’s released at 1330 GMT. Adding to the potential for further volatility will be any headlines from the first meeting between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba later today, with traders likely to be on high alert for headlines regarding tariffs, Japan’s trade surplus and the current weakness of the JPY. With these key risk events ahead of us, being aware of the technical trends and potential interesting chart levels for USDJPY and EURJPY may be useful. USDJPY – Back Towards First Retracement Support Since posting a high at 158.88 on January 10th, USDJPY has seen selling pressure in a move that’s extended weakness to the downside. This fall is now testing potential support at 151.50, which is the 38.2% retracement of September 16th 2024 to 158.88 January 10th 2025 high. The 38.2% retracement often represents a level that can either act as support and see resumption of price strength or give way on a closing basis, suggesting risks of a deeper decline. Therefore, how this 151.50 level is defended on a closing basis should be monitored. While closes below a 38.2% retracement support may in the past have seen a more extended phase of price weakness, it doesn’t mean it will do so again. However if a break was to materialise it may suggest further declines are possible towards the next support at 149.22, which is the deeper 50% retracement level, or maybe even on to 148.64, which is the December 3rd price low. Potential Resistance: Of course, if the 151.50 support holds, it’s equally possible USDJPY strength can develop again, but what are the possible resistance levels that may need to be broken to see potential of a move higher in price? Thursday’s high stands at 152.90, and it may be breaks above this resistance, that could see further upside strength towards 153.79, which represents half of the latest weakness, possibly even further. EURJPY – Back to Lower Limits of the Range Since the 154.41 August 5th 2024 low in EURJPY, buyers and sellers appear to have been in balance, reflected by the formation of a sideways range in price. This range has held price activity within converging trendlines connecting recent highs and low and reflects sellers being found at a lower level each time strength is seen and buyers materialising at a higher level as price weakness develops, forming a triangular pattern, as shown on the chart above. Possible Support Levels: With the latest EURJPY weakness seeing moves back to the lower limits of the sideways pattern, the support currently stands at 157.10. Closing breaks below this level could suggest buyers who have previously been happy to pay higher prices and offer support to price declines, are no longer active. As such, closing breaks under 157.10 may suggest a more extended phase of price weakness, which could result in declines to test support at 154.41 which is the August 2024 low, even possibly further towards the next potential support at 153.10. Resistance Levels: Of course, a downside break hasn’t materialised yet, and it’s possible 157.10 support could hold the current weakness, possibly marking a level where buyers have been found again. If this is the case, tests of the upper range extreme, which currently stands at 163.50, may develop, although a closing break above this resistance level is required to suggest the potential of a more extended rally. 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by Pepperstone
Rate Hike Speculation Sends Yen SoaringThe Japanese yen strengthened past 152 per dollar, its highest in nearly two months, as expectations grow for continued BOJ rate hikes. BOJ board member Naoki Tamura suggested raising the policy rate to at least 1% by fiscal 2025. Household spending rose 2.7%, the first increase in five months, while real wages grew for a second month, supported by higher winter bonuses. Market speculation now focuses on a potential 5% wage increase in Japan's spring negotiations. The key resistance level is 153.85, with a break above targeting 154.90 and 156.00. On the downside, major support stands at 151.25, followed by 149.20 and 147.10.
by zForexcom
USDJPY Long: NFP ON TAP!!! NFP is expected to come in at about 169k. We will watch the actual news results before deciding whether to continue the trade. If the news comes in better than expected, we expect the US dollar to become stronger against the Yen. If NFP comes in lower than expected, we will be looking to other major pairs for trading setups. We can see price is moving in a bullish direction, which is supported by the short-term trendline breakout and a change in market structure from bearish to bullish.
Long
by NDOBObanks
Yen eyes US payrolls, Japan household spending jumpsThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Friday.  This follows a two-day rally which saw the  yen jump  1.9% and hit a three-month high.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.39% on the day.  On the data front, Japan's household spending was much stronger than expected and the US releases nonfarm payrolls. Japan's household spending has been struggling as inflation remains relatively high.  This made the December report a pleasant surprise, as household spending was much higher than expected.  Annually, household spending climbed 2.7%, crushing the market estimate of 0.2% and rebounding from -0.4% in November.  The monthly gain of 2.3% followed the November reading of 0.4% and beat the market estimate of -0.5%. Household spending was the strongest since Aug. 2022, driven by strong wage gains. However, it is questionable whether the impressive gain is a temporary blip, given that the December wage growth was largely driven by bonuses.  Still, real wages (adjusted for inflation) rose for a second straight month in December, which supports the case for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.  BoJ policy makers have been unusually candid about plans to raise rates, although the timing is uncertain, with May or August strong possibilities for the next rate hike. The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls, one of the most important economic events.  The market estimate stands at 170 thousand for January, after a surprisingly strong gain of 256 thousand in December.  If the January forecast is accurate, it would mark a sharp drop that would make headlines, but is close to the past three-month average. The Federal Reserve won't be worried if job creation slows as long as the labor market is cooling at a slow pace.  The Fed is expected to cut rates only once or twice this year, but that could change if inflation or the labor market provide any surprises. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.86.  Next, there is resistance at 152.48 150.83 and 150.21 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY - BoJ Interest Rate Decision?!Here is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 155.800 . Our scenarios are in play after the BoJ (Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. Scenario 1: BUYS -We broke above 156.700 . With the break of 156.700 we can expect a possible move up to 158.748. With a a further break of this KL (Key Level) we can expect more upside on the pair potentially reaching top of the long-term range sitting at 161.820. Scenario 2: SELLS -We broke below 154.881 . If we break bellow 154.881 we can expect more downside on the pair even up to 152.000. With breaks of this level we could see even lower levels sitting at around 149.394 or “bottom of the long-term range”. IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 161.820; top of the long-term range - 158.748; breaks above would result in more upside - 154.881; breaks below would result in sells - 152.817; breaks below confirming lower levels - 152.030; breaks below confirming lower levels - 149.394; bottom of the long-term range Personal opinion: It’s not advised to enter into sells or buys before we have a clear break or the BoJ Interest Rate Decision data out. For now we are patiently waiting on either breaks to the upside or breaks to the downside. More volatility on the pair is expected tomorrow so be careful. KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking above 156.700 would confirm buys. - USDJPY breaking below 154.881 would confirm sells. - BoJ Interest Rate Decision is tomorrow. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
1
Bullish reversal?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 151.05 1st Support: 149.52 1st Resistance: 153.24 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 151.06, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibo extension and the 78.6% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 152.68, which is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fiboancci retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 149.58, which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
USDJPYThe Japanese yen fell below 155 per dollar on Tuesday as the suspension of U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada reduced safe-haven demand. On Monday, Trump agreed to pause the tariffs for a month after talks with both nations. Optimism is also rising over a possible U.S.-China deal to prevent the 10% tariffs set for today. In Japan, investors await Wednesday’s wage data, which could impact the BOJ’s policy outlook. The central bank raised rates in January and signaled readiness for further hikes if economic conditions support it. The key resistance level appears to be 155.90, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.70 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.80 is the first major support, followed by 151.90 and 149.20 if the price moves lower. 
Short
by Disco-Dave
1