Be careful with buying USDJPY!!!Hello traders this is a trade that almost everyone sees it coming but it is too good to be true.
We have a clear breakout of this downtrend.
An inverted head and shoulders some might say cup and handle.
A lot of ppl (including me) are going to put their SL inside this zone but that can be dangerous I recommend taking a better entry or just leaving this trade bcz it is too risky. Do not be a victim of FOMO.
Lets wait for the bounce first then we will secure our position that is all I am saying and do not simply enter after the trendline touches the trendline because this might be a very strong downtrend.
USDJPY trade ideas
usdjpy shortUSDJPY has been showing calculated signs of bearish intent — but not the kind of drop beginners should rush into.
Here’s what I’m seeing :
On the 1H timeframe, an M-structure formed between Thursday and Friday, triggering early bearish sentiment.
However, zooming out to the 4H, just above this M lies a clean liquidity pool (resting buy stops) and a Bearish Order Block (OB) — right at the origin of the last aggressive move down.
This OB sits directly above the previous week range, and interestingly, it’s also the exact candle that broke the range structure.
This tells me something powerful:
The M on the 1H was likely a trap, luring in early sellers before the market grabs liquidity and delivers a true mitigation into the 4H OB.
So what am I expecting?
Early week manipulation (Monday–Tuesday) :
Price may break above Friday’s high, sweeping liquidity and filling inefficiencies.
Mitigation into the 4H OB :
If price taps this zone and rejects with momentum (watch for bearish engulfing, M structure, or FVG on 15min/1H), I’ll prepare for a calculated short setup.
Potential mid-to-late week sell-off :
If confluence aligns post-OB rejection, expect price to target previous internal lows or the base of the previous week range.
⚠️ Risk Note — Read Carefully :
This is not financial advice.
Although my bias is bearish based on multi-timeframe confluence, news flow, liquidity behavior, and smart money concepts, every trader should conduct their own analysis before entering a position.
Don’t get trapped by early M-patterns.
Be patient. Let the market show its hand, then respond — not react.
Trade smart. Protect capital. Master patience.
144.50 is a crucial turning pointAccording to the data from the LMAX Exchange, the volume of short yen positions being closed out in leveraged accounts has increased for three consecutive days. However, commercial accounts are still placing hedging buy orders above 145.50, forming a seesaw battle pattern between the bulls and the bears.
USDJPY: FVG Then Bullish Overflow?It has been a significant week for USD/JPY. Following a break of structure (BOS) on the 4-hour timeframe, price moved away from equilibrium, leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG). As the new week begins, we may observe a false move designed to induce traders into premature short positions before a potential bullish reversal—or vice versa. Additionally, given the recent BOS, price may temporarily stall to facilitate order accumulation. Next week will be pivotal in determining the pair’s next direction.
Watch out for the key levels
USD/JPY Bull is back to push the price upHi All,
Firstly, I want to congrats to traders who short the market for the last few months. Well done!!!
Those who is waiting for LONG opportunity, let's get ready for sniper entry.
Here is my prediction and entry on USD/JPY. As you can see, the orange zone around $139-$140 is extremely strong zone. Prices reverse 3 times on this level. On 22 March 2025, the closed daily candle was formed a hammer candle and followed by a strong bullish candle next day which indicates potential reversal to upward.
The RSI indicator lines were crossed on 22 March 2025. Now, the indicator is showing upward momentum as the both lines are about cross 50%.
We also have bullish divergence on the volume indicator. As you can see, the volume was going to sideway where as the price was heading to the orange zone.
These confluence is supporting me to enter LONG. Therefore, I entered 3 entry at different price point which is $143.50, $142.996, $144.70.
USDJPY is Sellinghaving given a CHoCH, it is temporally retracing to the up side to take out liquidity before giving us an official downtrend on the 1hour time frame. sell 1 and sell 2 are the two possible areas it could touch prior to the expected movement. stop loss should be 50 pips above sell 2 and also manage your risk.
USD/JPYThe pattern has **four points**: A, B, C, and D, forming two legs: **AB and CD**, which are equal in length and time.
There are two types:
* **Bullish AB=CD**: Signals a potential reversal to the upside.
* **Bearish AB=CD**: Signals a potential reversal to the downside.
Fibonacci Guidelines:
* The length of AB should be approximately equal to CD.
* The time it takes for price to move from A to B should be similar to C to D.
* The retracement BC is often:
* 61.8% or 78.6% of AB
* The projection CD is:
* 127.2% or 161.8% of BC
"USDJPY | Smart Money Premium Trap | Mitigation Block Rejection"⚡ USDJPY Analysis – 30M Timeframe | April 30, 2025
📊 Price Action Summary:
USDJPY has aggressively tapped into the Premium Zone, aligning perfectly with a Mitigation Block and Fibonacci 61.8% golden pocket.
We’re seeing early signs of Smart Money rejection — time to stay sharp! 🧐
🔥 Key Moves:
Premium Zone Entry: Price retraced right into the 61.8–70.5% fib region.
Mitigation Block respected: A known Smart Money zone where trapped sellers from previous moves get wrecked.
Liquidity Build-Up Below: Eyes on the unprotected lows — Smart Money LOVES to grab those.
🧠 What’s Really Going On Behind the Scenes:
Retail traders: "It’s bouncing! Let’s go long!" 🟢💸
Smart Money: "Perfect… let’s trap them for liquidity." 🧊📉
This move screams classic Premium Trap — draw them in, then nuke it. ☠️
🧩 Why This Setup Matters:
Mitigation Block + FVG combo = High-probability rejection zone
Sellers are likely reloading positions here
The Strong High has been established — room to target Weak Lows below
🎯 Trade Setup Idea:
Entry: Inside or just below the Mitigation Block (confirmation from bearish rejection)
Stop Loss: Just above the Strong High (~142.813)
Take Profit Zones:
TP1: Mid-discount (~141.400)
TP2: Weak Low (~139.899) — the real liquidity target 🎯
💬 Pro Tip:
"Mitigation blocks are the sniper’s nest for Smart Money. Get in, get out, get paid." 🎯
Watch the reaction closely inside the purple zone. It’s not just a block — it’s a liquidity recycling station.
🚀 Summary:
✅ Price entered Premium
✅ Mitigation Block tested
✅ Liquidity below waiting
✅ High RRR bearish setup aligning
🧘♂️ Be patient. Wait for confirmation. Let Smart Money leave the trail — then follow.
✍️ Save this chart and study how Mitigation Blocks get respected over and over. It’s not magic — it’s mechanics.
➡️ Comment "SNEAKY SHORT" if you're watching the block trap unfold!
➡️ Tag a trader who still doesn’t believe in Premium/Discount theory. 😂📉📈
USD/JPY(20250502)Today's AnalysisToday's buying and selling boundaries:
144.67
Support and resistance levels:
147.49
146.44
145.75
143.58
142.90
141.84
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.75, consider buying, the first target price is 146.44
If the price breaks through 144.67, consider selling, the first target price is 143.58
USDJPYThe technical analysis shows a bullish outlook for the USDJPY pair on the 4-hour timeframe, summarized as follows: The price was within a descending channel and broke upwards. After the breakout, a strong bullish impulse occurred. The price broke a previous structural level (price structure) and is currently retreating to form a pullback.
USDJPY: TGIF setupafter news yesterday, USDJPY made the strong spike and did a liquidity swipe on late buyers at Tokyo open. well, the whole week see bullish in play, leaving some FVG in HTH, very ideal for TGIF setup.
As soon as I see the bearish candle in H1 TH, enter 100% lot size with expectation of retracement to 20-30% fib, as ICT's textbook.
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