USDJPY Trade Idea – Major Reversal Brewing?Price has repeatedly respected this strong demand zone, showing multiple rejections with higher lows — signaling buyer interest. This zone aligns with historical support from August–September 2024.
🔵 Resistance to Watch: 149.068
A breakout above 149.068 could open up room toward the next major supply zone at 156.000, which is where we see the highest historical volume activity (Visible Range HVN).
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💡 Bullish Outlook:
Price just bounced off the demand zone for the third time ✅
RSI (not shown here) is moving up from oversold territory 📈
Clean breakout potential above 149.00
FOMC event approaching (as seen on chart), could provide the catalyst needed ⚠️
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📊 Trade Setup Idea:
Entry: Above 145.000 confirmation candle
Target 1: 149.000
Target 2: 155.800 (Supply zone)
Stop Loss: Below 143.800
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📣 Are You Watching USDJPY Too?
Drop your analysis or thoughts in the comments 💬.
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USDJPY trade ideas
Technical Analysis on JPY Price Action (as of June 9, 2025)📈 Technical Analysis on JPY Price Action (as of June 9, 2025)
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🗂️ Overview:
This chart illustrates the price movement of the Japanese Yen (JPY) with clearly defined support and resistance zones. The setup suggests a bullish bias in the short term, with potential for a breakout toward previous highs.
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🔍 Key Levels Identified:
🟥 Main Support Zone (141.80 – 142.80):
This is a strong demand zone.
Price bounced aggressively from this level in late May.
If broken, could trigger a major downside move 📉.
🟧 Support Zone (143.80 – 144.70):
Price is currently testing this zone.
Holding this area will be crucial for bullish continuation.
🟨 Resistance Zone (145.80 – 146.60):
This is the next target for bulls 🐂.
Historically acted as a supply zone, causing pullbacks.
🟫 ATH Resistance Zone (~147.80 – 148.50):
The All-Time High (ATH) resistance zone.
Strong rejection from here in the past; likely to act as a hard ceiling again 🚫.
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🔄 Price Action Forecast:
🕊️ If the current support holds, expect a bullish move toward the 146.00–146.50 resistance.
📈 A breakout above this resistance could initiate a move to the ATH zone (147.80+).
🚨 A breakdown below 143.80 could lead to retesting the main support near 142.00.
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📊 Technical Sentiment:
Bias: Bullish ✅
Trend: Recovering uptrend after forming a higher low.
Confirmation Needed: Break and retest of the 145.80–146.60 resistance for continuation.
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✅ Trading Tip:
Wait for either:
🔁 A retest and bounce from 144.00 for long entries 🎯.
❌ A rejection at resistance for potential short opportunities if price fails to break 146.60.
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📌 Conclusion:
The market shows bullish intent from support, but traders should watch the reaction near the resistance zone to confirm trend continuation. 📍Patience and confirmation are key.
JPYUSD Smart Money VIP Analysis – Eyeing High-Probability Target📈 Market Context:
The JPYUSD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar) is currently navigating through a critical structure phase where price is reacting to previously established institutional zones. Recent price movements reveal a clean and structured setup — one that aligns perfectly with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and CHoCH (Change of Character) theory.
This 2H chart provides a roadmap for anticipating the next high-probability reversal, giving traders an edge in both short-term scalps and mid-term swing trades.
🔍 In-Depth Chart Analysis:
🧱 Resistance Zone (0.007020–0.007040):
This area has been tested multiple times in the past and acted as a strong supply zone. Institutional orders have previously caused significant bearish pressure from this level. Unless a strong bullish breakout occurs with volume, this zone is likely to hold again.
🔁 Next Reversal Zone (0.006975–0.006985):
Price is currently climbing from the SR Interchange Zone, heading toward this marked reversal area. Here's why this zone matters:
Confluence of past resistance and imbalance
Potential liquidity sweep above minor highs
Perfect setup for a bearish reaction to form a lower high
Traders should watch for signs of weak bullish candles, wicks, or a bearish engulfing here.
🔄 SR Interchange (Support-Resistance Flip):
This level held firm, showing buyer interest after a previous structure break. It signals a healthy correction phase — a typical SMC signature before larger moves occur. The market is offering a retracement opportunity.
🟡 CHoCH Zones:
Minor CHoCH (0.006900): A break and close below this level would invalidate bullish correction and confirm the shift in momentum.
Major CHoCH (0.006840): The final confirmation of bearish dominance. A breach here opens the door for new lows, targeting long-term support areas.
⚔️ Smart Money Playbook:
Current Move: Price is in bullish retracement from previous demand zone
Watch Zone: 0.006975–0.006985 (Potential Smart Money sell zone)
Reaction Setup:
Bearish structure forms (e.g., M pattern, liquidity sweep, bearish engulfing)
Price breaks minor CHoCH
Sell Entry: After confirmation, with stops above reversal zone
TP1: SR Interchange level
TP2: Major CHoCH zone
📅 Fundamental Triggers Ahead:
Watch for upcoming USD economic data (CPI, PPI, interest rate decisions) between June 11–14, which could act as catalysts for volatility and confirm technical setups.
🧠 Educational Note:
This setup is a classic example of market structure shift, liquidity engineering, and order block theory — concepts used by banks and smart money traders. Retail traders often get trapped on the wrong side of these zones. Your edge lies in anticipating the trap, not reacting to it.
🎯 Conclusion:
JPYUSD is offering a textbook Smart Money setup. The current retracement gives an opportunity to position early into a likely bearish continuation, provided structure confirms at the next reversal zone. Patience, discipline, and precise timing will be key to capitalizing on this move.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 9, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is rising at the start of the new week, reacting to upward revisions to Japan's first quarter GDP data. This comes amid signs of rising inflation in Japan and confirmation of bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, which in turn provides a slight boost to the JPY. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is putting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session.
For now, the Yen appears to have broken a two-day losing streak against its US counterpart, although traders may refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of key US-China trade talks in London. In addition, stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates soon this year, which could serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit USD/JPY pair losses.
Trade recommendation: SELL 143.85, SL 144.85, TP 141.85
USD/JPYMy initial bias was to short USD/JPY; however, the pair has since formed a double bottom pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. It has broken through a key resistance level at 144.300. I am now waiting for confirmation of a successful retest of this level before considering a long position.
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 143.70, which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fib retracement.
Our take profit will be at 144.74, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 142.81, an overlap support.
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Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 142.40
1st Support: 139.58
1st Resistance: 148.45
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Who wants to join the shorting party? Come onboard now..USDJPYWe have a nice retracement now and the risk reward is also good......
For beginners, again, I wouldn't suggest increasing your position size unless you have a clear profit target to get out. This is volatile pair where one moment you can see nice profits in your account and the next hour , it turns red. It is not the exit nor the entry that I believes create the anxiety but rather the unfinished business of having the money in your pocket.
There, you see profits rising and your fear increases by the minute to ask you take it or else.......and on the other hand, you worry, what if it goes down lower and you missed this opportunity. Every single day, this situation happens and some make money initially only to return back to the market. They then took revenge and bet more only to lose even more until they torn and battered, decides trading is not for them.
I suggest the minimum contract size you can trade with and start from there and learn as you see the price goes up and down. See what it does to your emotions - like riding a roller coaster. You imagined what you can do with the profits had you times 10 but you did not or wished it wasn't a demo account but real live account. Or you hesitated to enter and then it went up like a rocket and you sighed a relief, how lucky/good you were in spotting the market trend.
Trading on a different level reveals your true self much like a mirror and you can be honest about it or continues to fake it. It is up to you!
USDJPY Sell- Go for sell
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for sell even if price goes one more up
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USDJPY Short Setup: OB Rejection + Fib Premium Sell-Off IncomingUSDJPY (1H Chart) | Institutional Short Setup with OB + Fib Confluence
The market is showing clear Smart Money Distribution behavior — with a rejection from a high-confluence zone combining Order Block, Premium Fib Levels, and bearish momentum shift.
🔍 Smart Money Setup Breakdown:
🔻 Bearish Order Block Zone (OB)
Price wicked into OB zone and got instantly rejected
OB located precisely at the 70.5% – 79% premium range
Mark of institutional sell-side interest
📐 Fibonacci Retracement + Premium Zone
Retracement from swing high (144.973) to swing low (144.436)
Premium zone between 61.8% to 79% aligns with OB (144.700–144.973)
Entry taken from this zone for high-probability sell setup
📉 Bearish Confirmation
Aggressive bearish reaction post-OB tap
Market structure flipping bearish
Momentum candle breaks previous bullish leg
🔻 Target Zones (Measured Fib Extensions)
-27%: 144.200
-62%: 144.000
-100%: 143.803
-161.8%: 143.300 (extended liquidity draw)
🧠 Chart Ninja Entry Plan:
🔹 Entry Zone 144.784 – 144.973 (OB + Premium Fib + FVG rejection)
🔻 SL Above 145.000 (above OB wick)
📉 TP 1 144.200 (first fib extension)
📉 TP 2 143.803 (full -100% extension)
⚖️ RRR Approx. 1:4+ — stealthy sniper precision
💬 Pro Tip from the Ninja Dojo:
The market doesn’t move because of indicators — it moves because of liquidity.
Find the OB. Wait for the imbalance. Strike where Smart Money hides. 🥷📊
This isn’t retail — this is calculated execution.
🎯 Save this chart before price melts to 143.8
💬 Drop your entry zone & SL idea in comments
USDJPY Pending Short at 146.32In this idea, I have plotted all the necessary information on the chart itself. But allow me to point them out in words:
1. A resistance zone drawn with a rectangle that shows 5 red down arrows, out of which 4 are historical price rejection points and the last one is an expected rejection point at the top of the resistance zone which will be our short entry.
2. An Elliott Wave count update that shows a double combination wave 2 showing that we are now in a C wave of the double combination Y wave.
3. 3 different trendlines: The purple is expected to break, the blue is where price is expected to be rejected that will coincide with the top of the resistance zone, and the green which will be our stop loss if break above.
4. A take short position risk-reward plot where SL is set is initially set up at 147.187 but this should really be following the green trendline, and a TP that is initially set at the blue H&S neckline at 141.042 (see previous USDJPY idea for the big picture H&S plot).
Overall, I am expecting a final push for USDJPY to move up that will be in-line with the equity markets last leg up) and then a higher degree wave 3 down for USDJPY that will also be in-line with equity markets downturn.
Good luck!
Japan : Q1 2025 GDP Revision: Milder ContractionFinal data for Q1 2025 shows that Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% year-on-year (YoY), better than the initial estimate of -0.7%
(Sources: english.kyodonews.net, reuters.com, fxstreet.com).
Growth in household consumption and an increase in inventory levels were the main drivers, although the export sector remained a drag due to U.S. tariff pressures.
On a quarterly basis (QoQ), the economy recorded flat growth (0.0%), exceeding expectations of a -0.2% contraction
(Sources: reuters.com, fxstreet.com).
In summary: The revision shows that Japan’s economy is not as weak as initially feared, though it still reflects underlying sluggish conditions.
Sunday Report Last week ended with buyers pushing price upwards. Price is testing our key resistance of 114.784.
Targets:
Buy: 145.066 (open and close above)
Sell: 114.599 (open and close below)
Key takeaways:
Price is currently bullish in hour and four timeframes moving above 200 sma
Bearish in weekly and monthly
Our next report is going to be the Core Inflation Rate YoY which I will talk more about in my next post.