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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Potential rebound from support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 71% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 151.88 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 150.93 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 153.24 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Long-Term Play on USD/JPY: A Robust IdeaOver the next 12-24 months, USD/JPY is likely to trend higher due to: 1. Monetary Policy Divergence: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a relatively hawkish stance compared to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which will likely keep its ultra-loose monetary policy intact. 2. Interest Rate Differentials: Higher U.S. Treasury yields compared to Japanese government bond (JGB) yields make the USD more attractive for carry trades. 3. Economic Growth: The U.S. economy is expected to outperform Japan’s, driven by strong consumer spending, innovation, and a resilient labor market, while Japan faces structural challenges like aging demographics and weak domestic demand. 4. Global Risk Sentiment: If global uncertainty eases, the JPY may weaken as safe-haven flows diminish, further supporting USD/JPY. Key Drivers 1. Fed Policy: Even if the Fed pauses or cuts rates in 2025, U.S. rates will remain higher than Japan’s, supporting the USD. 2. BoJ Policy: The BoJ’s commitment to yield curve control (YCC) and negative rates limits JPY strength. Only recently, have they moved to positive rates, but nothing significant to cause massive interest in the Yen. Any policy tweaks are likely to be gradual and minimal. 3. Growth Differential: The U.S. economy’s resilience contrasts with Japan’s sluggish growth, favoring the USD. 4. Technical Trends: USD/JPY has been in a long-term uptrend since 2012, with key support levels (e.g., 140.00, 135.00) providing attractive entry points. Risk 1. BoJ Policy Shift: An unexpected tightening by the BoJ (e.g., exiting YCC or raising rates) could strengthen the JPY. 2. Global Recession: A severe downturn could trigger safe-haven flows into the JPY, weakening USD/JPY. 3. Fed Rate Cuts: Aggressive Fed rate cuts could weaken the USD relative to the JPY. --- Finally!! The MEAT!!! **Trade Execution** 1. Entry Point: - Enter on dips toward key support levels (e.g., 140.00 or 135.00) or on a breakout above resistance (e.g., 152.00). 2. Position Sizing: - Allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to manage risk. 3. **Stop-Loss**: - Place a stop-loss below key support levels (e.g., 134.00) to limit downside. 4. **Take-Profit**: - Target 160.00-165.00 over the long term, based on historical ranges and USD strength potential. 5. **Hedging**: - Consider hedging against JPY strength using JPY-denominated assets or options strategies. --- **Monitoring the Trade** - Track U.S. and Japanese economic data (e.g., inflation, GDP, employment). - Monitor central bank communications from the Fed and BoJ. - Watch for changes in global risk sentiment and geopolitical developments. --- This long-term play on USD/JPY is grounded in fundamental and technical analysis but requires flexibility to adapt to changing conditions. By focusing on monetary policy divergence, growth differentials, and risk sentiment, this trade offers a robust framework for capitalizing on USD strength against the JPY. Not Financial Advice. I strong advocate for doing your own research. If you've any comments, questions, or concerns The Konsigliere is always ready to listen and strategize with like-minded individuals. Let's Get This Money.
Long
by KonsigliereNera
Japanese Yen Surges on Wage DataThe Japanese yen strengthened past 154 per dollar on Wednesday, its highest in seven weeks, as strong wage and services data fueled expectations of a more aggressive Bank of Japan policy. Japan’s real wages rose for a second month in December, with nominal wage growth hitting a nearly 30-year high due to winter bonuses. The January services PMI was revised up to 53 from 52.7. In January, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and signaled openness to further hikes if economic and inflation trends align. Externally, the yen gained as the US dollar weakened after Washington delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while trade tensions with China eased. Key resistance stands at 155.90, with potential targets at 158.70 and 160.00. Support is at 153.00, followed by 151.90 and 149.20.
by zForexcom
USDJPY: Time to take profit at key support levelJapan labour earnings data surprised the market significantly to the upside recording the largest rises in nearly 27 years at 4.8% YoY. Importantly, real wages growth has been positive for the second consecutive month and was up 0.6% YoY. Investors and the BoJ will be keenly watching the Shunto or spring wage negotiations in the coming two months. The Japanese Trade Union Confederation, Rengo, has announced that it is seeking overall wage rises of at least 5% and wagerises of 6% or more from SMEs. Both rises would be well above headline inflation currently running at 3.6% YoY in headline terms. The key will be whether companies and SMEs can afford to pay such claims. Companies’ representative group, Keidanren, has called the Rengo’s demands “extremely high,” while acknowledging that wage rises are needed given high inflation. The above helps reinforce BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s view of strong momentum building in the cycle between higher wages and prices growth. The BoJ definitely wants to see positive real wages growth given that inflation and negative wages growth has been the norm for most of the past two years and has eroded household consumption. Today’s stronger-than-expected wages growth in Japan along with cooler US JOLTS data than expected has led to a fall in the US-Japan 2Y rate differential to its lowest level in four months. Japan’s rates market is now pricing in a small chance of the BoJ doing more than one more 25bp rate hike this year. USD/JPY has responded by starting to grind its way through support in the 153.00/30 region with major support at the intersection of the 100- and 200-day moving averages coming in at 152.70/80. These support levels could be tested in the coming days with the releases of several major US data releases including ISM and labour market data. We also continue to note a reported meeting between US President Donald Trump and Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba on Friday where investors will be keenly watching for any signs Trump is about to turn his tariff threats on Japan.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
Will USDJPY continue its decline amid hawkish tones from BoJ?Macro: - The yen reached a multi-week high due to more hawkish expectations from the BoJ. Japan's December real Wage rose in the second month, driven by winter bonuses. - The Japan Service PMI was revised to 53. In addition, the BoJ signalled that it would be willing to raise interest rates when conditions met. Technical: - USDJPY dropped below both EMAs after breaking the ascending trendline, indicating strong bearish momentum. - If USDJPY continues to decline, the price may retest the support at 152.00. - Meanwhile, USDJPY may correct to retest its EMA21 area before resuming its downward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Short
by DatTong
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