Ceasefire Supports Yen’s StrengthThe Japanese Yen stayed strong near a one-week high around 145.5 on Wednesday, supported by risk-off sentiment and dovish commentary from the Bank of Japan. Several BOJ members favored steady rates with concerns over U.S. tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy.
May’s Services PPI remained above 3% yearly, strengthening speculation that the BOJ could still raise rates later this year. Meanwhile, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of Fed rate cuts continued to pressure the US Dollar.
The key resistance is at $146.20, and the major support is at $144.85.
USDJPY trade ideas
OANDA:USDJPY Buy SetupUSDJPY Buy Setup – Bullish Structure & Daily Rebound
USDJPY is showing signs of renewed bullish momentum after rejecting a significant daily low. Price action on the 1-hour timeframe has confirmed the formation of a higher low, followed by a clean break above a key daily support level—now turned support once again. This shift in market structure indicates a potential continuation of the uptrend, supported by higher highs and higher lows on the intraday chart.
Technical Highlights:
Strong rejection from a daily low zone
Bullish structure confirmed on the 1H timeframe
Price reclaiming a key support level and holding above it
Momentum suggests potential continuation toward higher targets
Trade Setup:
Entry: 145.110
Stop Loss: 144.754
Target Levels:
Take Profit 1: 145.709
Take Profit 2: 146.747
Take Profit 3: 148.014
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio within a well-defined bullish context. Wait for a solid candle confirmation if not already entered, and always manage your risk according to your trading plan.
Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments, and if you found this valuable, hit boost and follow for more structured trade ideas. Wishing you precision and profits!
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 25, 2025 USDJPYEvents to pay attention to today:
17:00 EET.USD - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech
17:30 EET.USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) remains in the lead against the US dollar during Wednesday's Asian session and remains close to the weekly high reached the day before, amid a combination of favourable factors. The summary of opinions from participants at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in June showed that some policymakers called for interest rates to be kept unchanged due to uncertainty about the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy. In addition, the fragile truce between Israel and Iran and trade uncertainty are supporting the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency.
Meanwhile, investors seem convinced that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again amid mounting inflationary pressure in Japan. These forecasts are confirmed by Japan's producer price index (PPI), which rose for the third consecutive month in May and remained above 3% year-on-year. In contrast, traders are factoring into their prices the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further lower the cost of borrowing this year. This, in turn, is causing US dollar (USD) bulls to tread cautiously and suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding Japanese yen remains upward.
Trading recommendation: SELL 144.900, SL 145.100, TP 144.000
LONG - USD/JPYCurrently in the 4H timeframe I can see that the price itself has given me a shift of momentum and this indicates that there could a chance for a possible bullish movement.
Now I have marked my zones base on fibonacci levels and gotten my zones to participate in the market.
Base on the market structure we can see that the price has now shifted its direction coming from a bearish momentum and now is pushing into a bullish momentum. This is where we can try to look for an opportunity to buy within those zones.
Why I am looking for a buy is because the price has already touched our support zone and respected the zone itself. Combining it together with Market Structure there seems to be a much more clearer view of how the market is moving.
Entry Point - 144.341
Stop Loss - 142.387
Take Profit - 148.585
USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart4-hour chart from FOREX.com displays the exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) as of June 25, 2025. The current rate is 145.156, reflecting a 0.16% increase (+0.226). The chart highlights a recent sharp upward movement followed by a decline, with key support and resistance levels marked around 144.484 and 145.731, respectively. The shaded areas indicate potential trading ranges, with the current price hovering near the upper boundary.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 144.35
1st Support: 143.09
1st Resistance: 145.29
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Usdjpy at key near-term support zone?The USD/JPY pair faces a sharp sell-off and slides to near 144.00 on Tuesday. The pair dives significantly as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Easing geopolitical tensions diminish demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar. During European trading hours, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 98.00.
The demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) should have weakened too, given its safe-haven status. However, the Asian-Pacific currency is outperforming its peers, except antipodeans, due to the decline in oil prices. ( Dua, 2025)
USD/JPY is trading below the 145.00 mark at the time of writing, during American trading hours, and staying afloat above its 100-day Moving Average, which remains a key near-term support zone.
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption Analysis – USD/JPY
1. Sideways/Flat Price Action
Price is consolidating in a tight range with small-bodied candles.
This indicates indecision and lack of momentum, not strength.
The upward arrows suggest bullish bias, but no strong signal confirms a breakout yet.
2. Bearish Momentum
The recent red candles dominate, showing a clear drop from above 146.000 earlier.
The overall trend (short-term) is down, and the support area could be tested again.
3. Decreasing Volume
Volume is fading out, especially the most recent bar (around 1.01K).
This suggests waning interest—any bullish breakout without volume support is likely to fail or reverse.
4. Resistance Area is Strong
The resistance zone near 145.800–146.000 is clearly tested before and held.
Without a significant catalyst, it's unlikely to break in the near term.
5. False Breakout Risk Above Target
The marked "target" just below resistance could trigger false bullish entries.
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacted off the support level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our tak eprofit.
Entry: 144.96
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 146.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 142.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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UJ - Perfect Shorts....📉 ELFIEDT - X-REVERSION | USDJPY SHORT CASE STUDY (4H)
🧠 Perfect reversal from our proprietary ELFIE 3SD Reversion Zone with a confirmed "DOWN" signal.
🔻 Entry: 147.575
🎯 Current Move: Over 290+ pips in profit and still running!
🕐 Indicator spotted the exhaustion perfectly after RSI divergence + 3SD extension.
💡 How to Trade It:
Wait for ELFIE DOWN signal in the red zone.
Enter at close of signal candle.
SL = high of signal candle.
Ride the move until opposite signal or reversion.
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USD/JPY Bearish Correction in Progress – Key Supports in Focus
USD/JPY is showing signs of weakness after rejecting the 146.00 level. The pair has started a corrective move on the 1H timeframe, trading below the previous support at 145.455, which has now turned into resistance.
As long as the price remains below this level, the current momentum suggests a possible drop toward the next support zones at:
First target: 144.78
Second target: 144.343
Any bullish retracement toward 145.455 may serve as a retest before continuing lower. This idea reflects the current price structure and does not constitute financial advice.
USD/JPY Bull is back to push the price upHi All,
Firstly, I want to congrats to traders who short the market for the last few months. Well done!!!
Those who is waiting for LONG opportunity, let's get ready for sniper entry.
Here is my prediction and entry on USD/JPY. As you can see, the orange zone around $139-$140 is extremely strong zone. Prices reverse 3 times on this level. On 22 March 2025, the closed daily candle was formed a hammer candle and followed by a strong bullish candle next day which indicates potential reversal to upward.
The RSI indicator lines were crossed on 22 March 2025. Now, the indicator is showing upward momentum as the both lines are about cross 50%.
We also have bullish divergence on the volume indicator. As you can see, the volume was going to sideway where as the price was heading to the orange zone.
These confluence is supporting me to enter LONG. Therefore, I entered 3 entry at different price point which is $143.50, $142.996, $144.70.
USD/JPY.2h chart patternI'm provided for USD/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe, here is a detailed breakdown and target analysis:
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🔍 Technical Analysis Summary
Pair: USD/JPY
Timeframe: 2H
Current Price: ~144.98
Trend: Bearish
Breakdown Confirmation: Price broke structure support and the ascending trendline.
Indicators: Price is below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish momentum.
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🎯 Identified Targets (Based on Your Chart)
1st Target Level (Nearest Support Zone):
Price Level: Around 143.50
This is the first horizontal red line marked as a "Target" on your chart.
Likely to act as a short-term support level.
2nd Target Level (Major Support):
Price Level: Around 142.00
This is the second and lower red line marked on your chart.
Strong historical support zone based on previous consolidation.
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✅ Final Target Levels
Target # Price Level Description
Target 1 143.50 Initial support; take partial profit here
Target 2 142.00 Major target; potential reversal/support zone
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Would you like a suggested stop-loss level or entry refinement based on candlestick confirmation or indicators (like RSI or volume)?
Yen Rebounds as Ceasefire Calms MarketsThe Japanese yen recovered to around 145.5 per dollar on Tuesday, gaining strength after the ceasefire announcement. Although Iran launched missiles at a US base in Qatar, causing no casualties, the gesture was largely seen as symbolic. Tehran’s decision not to target the Strait of Hormuz further eased fears of major disruptions.
The key resistance is at $146.20 while the major support is at $144.85.
USDJPY Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.018.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.793 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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