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USDJPY Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias on November USDJPY Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias on November 4, 2024 Introduction On November 4, 2024, the USDJPY (US Dollar to Japanese Yen) currency pair is showing signs of a potential slight bearish bias. A mix of fundamental factors, including recent economic data from the United States and Japan, is influencing the current outlook for USDJPY. In this article, we’ll analyze the latest drivers and market conditions impacting USDJPY today to help traders make informed decisions. To ensure visibility on TradingView and search engines, we’ve included essential keywords for better SEO optimization. Key Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today 1. US Dollar Weakness Following Economic Data - The US dollar has shown signs of weakening after recent economic reports painted a mixed picture of the US economy. Non-farm payroll data released last week fell short of expectations, suggesting a slowdown in job growth. Additionally, the latest PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data came in weaker than forecasted, hinting at a potential softening in the manufacturing sector. This weaker data weighs on the USD, allowing for a possible downside in USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Stable Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained a steady approach to monetary policy, signaling no immediate changes. With inflation remaining below target, the BoJ has resisted pressures to tighten rates aggressively. However, Japan’s economy has recently shown slight signs of improvement, with better-than-expected GDP and consumer spending data. This stability may lend some support to the Japanese yen, creating downward pressure on USDJPY. 3. Interest Rate Expectations - Interest rate differentials remain a significant factor for USDJPY. While the Federal Reserve recently suggested that it will maintain interest rates in the near term, markets are beginning to price in potential rate cuts in 2024 due to softening US economic data. This shift in sentiment could favor the Japanese yen over the US dollar, as investors seek safe-haven assets like the yen amid concerns over slower US growth. 4. Geopolitical Factors and Safe-Haven Demand - Recent geopolitical developments have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the Japanese yen benefiting as a result. Investors tend to turn to the yen in times of uncertainty, and with global tensions on the rise, the yen may see an uptick in demand. This safe-haven appeal could contribute to a bearish outlook for USDJPY as investors look to reduce exposure to the USD. 5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels - Technically, USDJPY shows signs of potential downside pressure. The currency pair is approaching a support level near 147.50, with resistance around 149.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a near-neutral level but is trending downward, signaling possible bearish momentum. Should USDJPY break below the 147.50 support, it could pave the way for further declines. Conclusion Given the above factors, USDJPY is likely to experience a slight bearish bias today. The combination of weaker US economic data, stable policies from the Bank of Japan, changing interest rate expectations, and rising safe-haven demand supports a bearish outlook. As always, it’s essential to keep a close watch on any new economic releases or geopolitical developments that could influence USDJPY in the coming hours. Stay tuned to TradingView for real-time updates and in-depth USDJPY analysis. --- SEO Keywords for USDJPY Article SEO-KEYWORDS: #USDJPYforecast #USDollartoJapaneseYen #USDJPYanalysis #ForextradingUSDJPY #USDJPYbearishtrend #USDJPYtodaysoutlook #BankofJapanpolicyimpact #USDollarweakness #Safehavencurrency
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY_105 2024.11.04 07:48:11 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_105 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.131 SL: 152.059 Entry Price: 152.193 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by frankiepro
USD/JPY H1 | Fill the gap before running into resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 152.96 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 153.72 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 151.62 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY_108 2024.11.04 07:24:36 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 152.095 SL: 152.27 Entry Price: 152.22 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by frankiepro
USDJPY Possible short Although sellers appear to primarily be in control at the moment, Im leaning towards a slight push up back into the zone of 153.792 or previous Equal Highs/supply zone, as it's much closer to where price currently is. Once price reaches this area, I would pay attention to specific rejection candles if any should form, then anticipate the downward push towards the unmitigated demand zone of 149.226. This zone previously initiated an impulsive move that broke structure at 150.235 and rode all the way up to 153.152, thus adding more likelihood of price pushing back down to that good strong demand/order block.
Short
by gotpipsbro
2
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 150.91 1st Support: 149.02 1st Resistance: 152.91 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD is STRONG Vs CAD, CHF, & JPYThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 4 - 8th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: CAD, CHF, & JPY future, and USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
USD/JPY Price AnalysisIn this analysis, we examine the USD/JPY currency pair, focusing on the recent price movements and technical indicators. The chart highlights a significant downward trend, followed by a potential upward reversal, as indicated by the arrows. Technical Analysis: Downward Movement: The first arrow points to a sharp decline from the recent highs, suggesting a bearish trend. This movement aligns with increased selling pressure and bearish market sentiment. Support Levels: The price is expected to find initial support around the 147.00 level. This area has historically acted as a strong support, and a bounce from this level could indicate a temporary reversal. Further Decline: The second arrow suggests a further decline to the 142.00 level if the 147.00 support fails. This indicates a more extended bearish outlook. Potential Reversal: After hitting the 142.00 level, there is potential for an upward reversal, depending on market conditions and buying interest at this lower support level. Price Expectations: Based on the current technical setup, we anticipate the USD/JPY to test the 147.00 support level initially. If this level holds, a short-term bounce towards 148.50 is possible. However, if the support at 147.00 breaks, we expect further declines towards 142.00. A recovery from 142.00 could then lead to a rebound. Trading Strategy: Short Positions: Consider short positions if the price breaks below 147.00, targeting 142.00 as the next support. Long Positions: If the price finds support at 142.00 and shows signs of reversal, long positions could be considered with a target of 147.00 or higher. In conclusion, the USD/JPY chart suggests a bearish outlook with potential for a significant decline followed by a possible recovery. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Short
by SaksArno
USDJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Short
by ShahedZare
USD/JPY Buy OpportunityUSD/JPY Buy Opportunity: Potential Upside Ahead I'm seeing a promising buy setup for USD/JPY as key technical and fundamental indicators align for a bullish outlook. Technical Analysis Support Level: USD/JPY has recently bounced from a strong support zone around , which has historically held well. Moving Averages: Price is trading above the , indicating a longer-term uptrend. This level may act as dynamic support. Trendline: A rising trendline from previous lows adds further support and confirms bullish momentum. Bullish Patterns: There's a potential , which often signals further upside. Fundamental Analysis Economic Data: Recent strong US economic data (e.g., employment numbers, inflation trends) supports a strong USD. Interest Rates: Divergence in US and Japan interest rates continues to favor USD as the BOJ maintains an accommodative stance, while the Fed hints at potential rate hikes. Trade Parameters Entry: Looking to enter around if we see strong bullish confirmation. Stop Loss: to protect against unexpected volatility. Take Profit: Targeting based on previous resistance and projected Fibonacci extension levels. Risk Management Ensuring sound risk-to-reward by setting appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels. Will manage this position closely for any signs of trend reversal. Disclaimer Please do your own research and analysis. Trade responsibly and be mindful of market risks!
Long
by TradingArtAcademy
2