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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 152.60, which is a pullback resistance Our take profit will be at 150.88, a pullback support level close to 61.8& Fibo retracement and 127.2% Fibo extension The stop loss will be at 154.64, above the 127.2% Fibo extension High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
USDJPY_109 2024.11.01 03:13:04 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.005 SL: 152.207 Entry Price: 152.321 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Undecided Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Same ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate assessments for short-term and long-term price movements of the USD/JPY currency pair. **Short-term analysis (next few days to a week):** * The Japanese Yen has strengthened after the BoJ's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, which may lead to a continuation of this trend in the short term. * The USD/JPY price is currently fluctuating between a support line and a resistance barrier, indicating a potential breakout or consolidation. * Given the recent highs and the yen's subsequent strengthening, I expect the USD/JPY price to **go down** in the short term, potentially testing the support line of the bullish channel. **Long-term analysis (next few weeks to months):** * The ongoing uncertainty over potential further rate hikes by the BoJ and the yen's recent strengthening may lead to a more significant correction in the USD/JPY pair. * The technical analysis using Elliott Wave theory suggests that the pair is at a critical juncture, which may indicate a potential reversal or continuation of the trend. * Considering the BoJ's decision to maintain current policy settings and the yen's recent gains, I expect the USD/JPY price to **stay the same** or potentially **go down** in the long term, as the yen's strengthening may continue to influence the pair. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new market data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the analysis, here are my conclusions: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The price is expected to go down, with a potential test of the support area near the 151.55 level. * However, technical indicators suggest a potential reversal and continuation of the current upward correction, which could lead to a rebound. * Overall, the short-term trend is uncertain and may experience consolidation. **Long-term (next few months to a year):** * The price is expected to stay the same or fluctuate within a range, with forecasts suggesting a range between ¥146 and ¥150 until the end of 2024. * Some analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US dollar against the yen, with a potential close at ¥145.555 in December. **Long-term (next few years):** * The price is expected to go up, with forecasts indicating a gradual strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. * The pair may rise to ¥173–¥179 by 2025 and could break above ¥220 by the end of the decade. Please note that these conclusions are based on the analysis of the provided data and should not be considered as investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and forecasts are subject to uncertainty. Result: ST=Down LT=Same Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided data, I will analyze the USD/JPY pair's price movement and provide a forecast for both short-term and long-term. **Short-term Analysis (next few days to a week)** * The pair is currently under bearish pressure, and the BoJ's decision to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% has added to the downward momentum. * The price is falling towards 152.00, and the forecasts suggest a continuation of this decline. * The solid resistance barrier at 153.65 is likely to hold, and the pair may struggle to break through this level in the short term. **Short-term Forecast:** Down **Long-term Analysis (next few weeks to months)** * The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing significant fluctuations, and the recent high of 153.30 was driven by the Japanese election results. * The pair is currently confined between the support line of a bullish channel and the resistance barrier at 153.65. * Although the BoJ's decision has added to the bearish momentum, the long-term trend is still bullish, and the pair may eventually break through the resistance barrier. **Long-term Forecast:** Up In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term due to the bearish momentum and the BoJ's decision. However, in the long term, the pair is expected to break through the resistance barrier and continue its upward trend. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit., Entry: 152.83 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 153.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 151.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY INTRESTThe market is currently positioned at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating an overbought condition. On the hourly chart, the market is consolidating around this 61.8% level, remaining within the "golden zone." It is anticipated that this consolidation will persist until a breakout occurs. I recommend adopting a strategy of entering buy positions at the lower boundaries and sell positions at the upper boundaries of this range.
by Profitsdaily
USDJPY/Bearish Setups Ahead: (Possibly 670+ pips)After a long bearish run, we've seen a key break below the intra trend low at 146.60. Price has also broken out of the broader trend dating from March 2022 to December 2023, dipping into demand zones along the way. Now trading at a premium in the current downtrend, the logical play is to look for short opportunities. On the 4H timeframe, a rising channel extends from October 4, 2024, at 147.34 up to October 31, 2024. Given upcoming fundamental releases, there’s potential for price to drop below 151.40. A close below this level on the 4H chart would confirm a trendline break and a structural shift, signaling a bearish move that could run down to 145.10 — a solid 670 pips in play. To catch this move early, I’ll be watching the 1H timeframe. If price meets our key condition of closing below 151.40, or ideally falls to 150.88, then a swing entry at 152.21 with an initial target at 149.55 is in focus. We’ll trail down from there as price develops. Remember, the close below 151.40 is essential for validating this entry. Risk according to your tolerance and keep an eye out here for updates on this trade and more. Don’t miss my latest analysis on DXY and Gold heading into the US election!
by Ieios
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
USD/JPY:Bank of Japan's Steady Rates and U.S. GDP Data to Shape The Bank of Japan (BoJ) concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday by keeping its short-term interest rate target steady at 0.25%. This decision, while in line with market expectations, sets the stage for potential market volatility, as other global economic indicators could weigh heavily on USD/JPY movement in the coming days. From a technical perspective, price action analysis reveals a notable reversal candle on the daily timeframe, aligning with a pre-identified supply area. This reversal is further supported by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are largely bullish, while “smart money” or institutional investors appear to be shifting their positions to the bearish side. Seasonal patterns also suggest a possible start of a new bearish trend, adding weight to the likelihood of downward movement. In addition, today’s U.S. Advance GDP data could amplify movements if it underperforms expectations, adding pressure on the USD and further supporting a bearish outlook for the USD/JPY pair. A disappointing GDP print could, therefore, accelerate a drop in the USD, setting up the pair for a potential shift in trend. Traders and analysts alike will be closely monitoring these developments, as Japan’s steady rates, combined with potential U.S. economic softness, set the tone for potential volatility in the days ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
USDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental FactUSDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental Factors (31/10/2024) Introduction In today's trading session on October 31, 2024, USDJPY appears to carry a slightly bearish bias due to various fundamental drivers impacting both the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). This article provides a detailed analysis of USDJPY, focusing on the major economic and geopolitical factors contributing to the bearish outlook. By considering both macroeconomic trends and the latest technical indicators, traders can better navigate potential setups for the USDJPY pair. Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve has recently hinted at maintaining a dovish stance, signaling a potential pause on interest rate hikes. This policy outlook is generally bearish for the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the Dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield. As a result, the USD could experience downward pressure against the Japanese Yen, contributing to a slight bearish bias for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan's Commitment to Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually shown signs of flexibility in its yield curve control policy, which could strengthen the Yen. Any indication of a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy is generally supportive for JPY, as it attracts investors looking for stability in an uncertain global environment. This shift increases the possibility of a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand - The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has led to fluctuating demand for USD-denominated assets. Lower yields often make the Dollar less attractive, especially in comparison to the Yen, which is considered a traditional safe haven. With a potential decline in yields, demand for USD could weaken, encouraging investors to turn toward JPY and reinforcing the slight bearish outlook for USDJPY. 4. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Sentiment - The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to higher risk aversion in the markets. In times of heightened uncertainty, the Yen benefits as a safe-haven currency. This risk-off sentiment may draw investors to JPY, increasing its strength against USD and creating bearish pressure on the USDJPY pair. 5. Japanese Economic Data - Stronger-than-expected Japanese economic data, including stable GDP growth and improved manufacturing output, have added positive momentum to the Yen. These indicators reflect Japan’s gradual recovery, making the Yen more attractive and adding pressure on USDJPY from the Japanese side. Technical Analysis of USDJPY (31/10/2024) From a technical perspective, USDJPY trades below its 50-day moving average, a signal commonly associated with bearish trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovers near the 40 level, suggesting potential downside momentum. Key support levels around 147.50 and resistance near 150.00 should be monitored. Key Support: 147.50 Key Resistance: 150.00 Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for 31/10/2024 Given today’s fundamentals and technical conditions, USDJPY exhibits a slightly bearish bias. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, the BOJ’s gradual policy adjustments, and risk aversion in global markets are all contributing to the current outlook. However, traders should remain attentive to any unexpected shifts in global economic data or central bank announcements. For those watching the USDJPY today, focusing on these fundamental drivers and key support levels can provide valuable insights for trading the pair amid a slightly bearish sentiment. SEO-Keywords: #USDJPYForecast #ForexAnalysis #USDToday #JapaneseYen #CurrencyMarket #USDJPYOutlook #BearishUSDJPY #TradingUSDJPY #ForexFundamentals
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges. Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength. For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end. Technical Overview of USD/JPY: Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area. At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level. A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move. Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at: - Slightly under 150, - Followed by further support at 147, - And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
USDJPY - Bearish TrendCurrently, USD/JPY is showing potential bearish momentum. A key level to watch is the previous higher low; a break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal. Additionally, there is a divergence present on the chart, with the price making higher highs while the RSI shows lower highs. This discrepancy indicates weakening bullish strength, suggesting that sellers may gain control. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
Short
by gulraizali90
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1