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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Buy pressure USD/JPYBuyers seeking to continue overall movement to 160 area. From the outside looking in all aspects of final test are being made and have been made at 144 area. This is a good number! Looking even closer, the sellers are selling too fast and are not going to be able to keep up that momentum in comparison to the overall pressure from the bottom. The top has been tested 3 strikes you out. Followed by the long steady ride up with bumps and traps along the way of course. Get your ticket now to get a good seat and watch.
Long
by PmasterK
1
Forecast USDJPY This is not financial advice. Educational purpose only." I am preparing to take a short position on USDJPY starting next week, in alignment with the upcoming rollover of futures contracts. My analysis is based on a combination of technical, macroeconomic, behavioral, and institutional elements. From a technical perspective, a clear bearish reversal divergence is visible on the weekly chart using the 21-period RSI based on HLCC/4. While the price is making higher highs, momentum is weakening, indicating a loss of bullish strength. This setup is reinforced by a long-term continuation divergence that has been forming since the major tops of 1971, suggesting a possible terminal phase in the current cycle. COT data supports this view. Large speculators have been steadily reducing their long positions on USDJPY over recent weeks. More significantly, these same institutional players have begun accumulating long positions on Japanese yen futures (6J), often a precursor to a monetary rotation. The upcoming rollover of futures contracts next week could trigger a more pronounced shift in institutiona positioning. Macroeconomic data from the United States also confirms a slowdown. Core PCE came in at 0.1%, below expectations. Nonfarm Payrolls underperformed, and the ISM Services Index dropped below 50, signaling contraction. In contrast, Japan maintains stable inflation around 2.3%, which gives the Bank of Japan room to begin policy normalization. The yield differential is starting to narrow, a historically bearish factor for USDJPY. Finally, market sentiment remains skewed. Retail traders are still heavily positioned long on USDJPY. Such imbalances, where retail crowds are long and institutional players are exiting, often precede sharp reversals. If the expected institutional reallocation materializes after the futures rollover, I will enter a short position. Technical, fundamental, and cyclical factors are now fully aligned. "This is a personal market view. Always do your own research before making trading decisions."
Short
by Kanounsyphax
2
USD/JPY Long Trade Setup – Key Support Rebound Targeting 148.674Entry Point: Price: 143.373 The chart suggests initiating a long (buy) position at this level, which is just slightly below the current market price. Stop Loss: Price: 141.707 Positioned below a strong support zone. This level protects the trade from excessive downside risk if the price breaks down. Target Point: Price: 148.674 The target is clearly defined, indicating a potential gain of approximately 5.991 points, or 4.20% from the entry. 🟪 Support/Resistance Zones The purple boxes indicate demand (support) and supply (resistance) zones. The lower zone (entry/stop area) shows a historically significant support range that has been tested multiple times (indicated with orange circles). The upper purple zone marks the take-profit area, which coincides with previous resistance. 📊 Moving Averages Blue Line: 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) – acting as dynamic resistance. Red Line: 50 EMA – price is currently trading below it, indicating bearish short-term pressure but potential for reversal. 🧠 Trade Idea Summary Bias: Bullish (long position) Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable Risk: ~1.67 points (from 143.373 to 141.707) Reward: ~5.3 points (from 143.373 to 148.674) Approx. R:R = 1:3.17 Validation: The setup relies on the price holding the key support zone and bouncing higher, targeting the next major resistance. ⚠️ Considerations Monitor for bullish candlestick patterns near the entry zone. Keep an eye on macroeconomic news (like BoJ or Fed updates) that could cause volatility in USD/JPY. Confirm momentum shift with RSI or MACD if using indicators.
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
22
Quantitative Trading Models in Forex: A Deep DiveQuantitative Trading Models in Forex: A Deep Dive Quantitative trading in forex harnesses advanced algorithms and statistical models to decode market dynamics, offering traders a sophisticated approach to currency trading. This article delves into the various quantitative trading models, their implementation, and their challenges, providing insights for traders looking to navigate the forex market with a data-driven approach. Understanding Quantitative Trading in Forex Quantitative trading, also known as quant trading, in the forex market involves using sophisticated quantitative trading systems that leverage complex mathematical and statistical methods to analyse market data and execute trades. These systems are designed to identify patterns, trends, and potential opportunities in currency movements that might be invisible to the naked eye. At the heart of these systems are quantitative trading strategies and models, which are algorithmic procedures developed to determine market behaviour and make informed decisions. These strategies incorporate a variety of approaches, from historical data analysis to predictive modelling, which should ensure a comprehensive assessment of market dynamics. Notably, in quantitative trading, Python and similar data-oriented programming languages are often used to build models. In essence, quantitative systems help decipher the intricate relationships between different currency pairs, economic indicators, and global events, potentially enabling traders to execute trades with higher precision and efficiency. Key Types of Quantitative Models Quantitative trading, spanning diverse markets such as forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies*, utilises complex quantitative trading algorithms to make informed decisions. While it's prominently applied in quantitative stock trading, its principles and models are particularly significant in the forex market. These models are underpinned by quantitative analysis, derivative modelling, and trading strategies, which involve mathematical analysis of market movements and risk assessment to potentially optimise trading outcomes. Trend Following Models Trend-following systems are designed to identify and capitalise on market trends. Using historical price data, they may determine the direction and strength of market movements, helping traders to align themselves with the prevailing upward or downward trend. Indicators like the Average Directional Index or Parabolic SAR can assist in developing trend-following models. Mean Reversion Models Operating on the principle that prices eventually move back towards their mean or average, mean reversion systems look for overextended price movements in the forex market. Traders use mean reversion strategies to determine when a currency pair is likely to revert to its historical average. High-Frequency Trading (HFT) Models Involving the execution of a large number of orders at breakneck speeds, HFT models are used to capitalise on tiny price movements. They’re less about determining market direction and more about exploiting market inefficiencies at micro-level time frames. Sentiment Analysis Models These models analyse market sentiment data, such as news headlines, social media buzz, and economic reports, to gauge the market's mood. This information can be pivotal in defining short-term movements in the forex market, though this model is becoming increasingly popular for quantitative trading in crypto*. Machine Learning Models These systems continuously learn and adapt to new market data by incorporating AI and machine learning, identifying complex patterns and relationships that might elude traditional models. They are particularly adept at processing large volumes of data and making predictive analyses. Hypothesis-Based Models These models test specific hypotheses about market behaviour. For example, a theory might posit that certain economic indicators lead to predictable responses in currency markets. They’re then backtested and refined based on historical data to validate or refute the hypotheses. Each model offers a unique lens through which forex traders can analyse the market, offering diverse approaches to tackle the complexities of currency trading. Quantitative vs Algorithmic Trading While quant and algorithmic trading are often used interchangeably and do overlap, there are notable differences between the two approaches. Algorithmic Trading Focus: Emphasises automating processes, often using technical indicators for decision-making. Methodology: Relies on predefined rules based on historical data, often without the depth of quantitative analysis. Execution: Prioritises automated execution of trades, often at high speed. Application: Used widely for efficiency in executing repetitive, rule-based tasks. Quantitative Trading Focus: Utilises advanced mathematical and statistical models to determine market movements. Methodology: Involves complex computations and data analysis and often incorporates economic theories. Execution: May or may not automate trade execution; focuses on strategy formulation. Application: Common in risk management and strategic trade planning. Implementation and Challenges Implementing quantitative models in forex begins with the development of a robust strategy involving the selection of appropriate models and algorithms. This phase includes rigorous backtesting against historical data to validate their effectiveness. Following this, traders often engage in forward testing in live market conditions to evaluate real-world performance. Challenges in this realm are multifaceted. Key among them is the quality and relevance of the data used. Models can be rendered ineffective if based on inaccurate or outdated data. Overfitting remains a significant concern, where systems too closely tailored to historical data may fail to adapt to evolving market dynamics. Another challenge is the constant need to monitor and update models to keep pace with market changes, requiring a blend of technical expertise and market acumen. The Bottom Line In this deep dive into quantitative trading in forex, we've uncovered the potency of diverse models, each tailored to navigate the complex currency markets with precision. These strategies, rooted in data-driven analysis, may offer traders an edge in decision-making. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart4-hour chart from FOREX.com displays the exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) as of June 25, 2025. The current rate is 145.156, reflecting a 0.16% increase (+0.226). The chart highlights a recent sharp upward movement followed by a decline, with key support and resistance levels marked around 144.484 and 145.731, respectively. The shaded areas indicate potential trading ranges, with the current price hovering near the upper boundary.
Long
by Alee_Gold_Trader
1
Lingrid | USDJPY Breakout Could Trigger Strong Bullish RallyFX:USDJPY is approaching a retest of the 144.20–144.30 support band after rebounding from a wedge breakdown and reclaiming structure within a broader ascending formation. Price remains under the downward trendline, but a successful bounce here could fuel another push toward 146. A higher low above 144.20 would confirm bullish intent. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 144.20–144.40 Sell trigger: breakdown below 144.00 Target: 146.00 Buy trigger: breakout and hold above 145.00 💡 Risks Rejection at the downward trendline limits upside potential Failure to hold the 144.20 base could reverse the bullish structure JPY strength from macro news could suppress breakout attempts Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
by Lingrid
17
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 144.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 146.11 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 142.70 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 144.35 1st Support: 143.09 1st Resistance: 145.29 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDJPY Analysis – Bearish Retracement SetupPrice is currently hovering around 144.340, and I'm anticipating a short-term pullback into the 144.786 zone — a key area of interest that aligns with a premium supply zone and possible order block on the H1/H4 timeframe. This retracement may serve as a liquidity grab before price resumes its bearish move toward 142.526, which sits near a higher timeframe demand zone or liquidity pool. If bearish confirmation (e.g., M-formation, bearish engulfing, or break of internal structure) appears at 144.786, I’ll be looking to short down to 142.526. 🔹 Short-term bias: Bullish retracement 🔻 Mid-term bias: Bearish continuation 🔍 Key Levels: Retracement zone: 144.786 Target zone: 142.526 Current price: 144.340 📌 Risk Management Note: This is not financial advice. Always use proper risk-to-reward (RR) setups, manage your lot size wisely, and never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Trading involves risk — protect your capital first.
Short
by The-ultimate-trader
DeGRAM | USDJPY correction 📊 Technical Analysis ● Monday's rebound above the 4-month falling trend line was quickly repelled, leaving a “false breakdown” candle; price has returned under the line and is now retesting it as resistance around 144.65. ● The rebound also stopped at the top of the triangle and a small bearish flag formed; the height of the pattern points to the 142.80 support band and the broader channel to 139.90 as continuation. 💡 Fundamental analysis ● Softer U.S. core GDP data drove 2-year Treasury yields to two-week lows, reducing the rate differential that favored the dollar. Meanwhile, Japanese officials again warned that they “do not rule out any measures” against excessive yen weakening, raising the risk of intervention and discouraging new long USD/JPY positions. Summary Short 144.4 - 144.65; break below 143.8 targets 142.8 -> 139.9. Bearish view loses strength with a 4-hour close above 145.30. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
3