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USDJPY trade ideas

Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 154.85 1st Support: 151.56 1st Resistance: 157.65 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
2
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 154.23 Why we like it: there is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 154.98 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 152.52 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Set To Fall! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on USDJPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 153.70 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 152.34 Safe Stop Loss - 154.61 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
USD/JPY – Just One Step Away from a Drop!Dear Traders, After a notable rally late last week, USD/JPY appears to have lost its momentum. Observations suggest that Wave 5 has completed, paving the way for a potential corrective decline, which aligns perfectly with the classic wave structure. We can now anticipate a downward correction, likely targeting the 155.95 zone initially. Following this, we might see further bearish consolidation below this level, aiming for the liquidity area around 152.85, a region that buyers have yet to revisit, and is currently taking shape. Remember, this is just the starting point of our analysis journey. We will provide regular updates so you can stay informed and adjust your strategies accordingly. Stick to the plan and trade carefully!
Short
by Bentradegold
1
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Monthly CLS, Edge of the range, Model 2Monthly CLS, Edge of the range, Model 2 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Short
by Dave-Hunter
USDJPY | Hidden Bearish Divergence | 1HCurrently, the USDJPY chart shows the formation of a hidden bearish divergence and a double top pattern, both indicating that the uptrend is shifting into a downtrend. Additionally, new lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) are forming, confirming the change in market structure. These factors suggest the presence of a potential reversal zone (PRZ), where the price is likely to continue its downward movement. Explanation: 1: Hidden Bearish Divergence: The price is formed higher highs (HH), while the RSI is showing lower highs, signaling weakness in the uptrend and a potential reversal. 2: Double Top Formation: A double top is a strong reversal pattern, indicating that the price has struggled to break through a resistance level and is now likely to move downward. 3: Market Structure Shift: The formation of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) indicates a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend, confirming bearish sentiment. 4: Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): The confluence of divergence, the double top, and the structural change points to a PRZ where sellers are likely to dominate, pushing the price further down. This setup suggests a bearish bias, and traders could look for sell opportunities after proper confirmation, such as a retest of the PRZ or a bearish candlestick pattern.
Short
by awaisulabdeen
USD/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: In the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having gained momentum from a major support level at 149.000. The price has successfully broken through our major key resistance at 151.500 and has continued to surpass two minor key resistance levels between 153.00 and 153.800. During this period, we observed the formation of an inverted hammer candlestick above our minor key resistance, which has now become a minor key support level. This was followed by two doji candlesticks, indicating potential price reversal and market indecision. Currently, we see price action accumulating buy orders in this area, suggesting that buyers are positioning themselves for a potential upward move. Price Action Expectation: Our objective is to wait for a manipulation or liquidity grab within the liquidity zone. Once the price bounces back and breaks through our minor key resistance, we will look to place a buy stop order. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 153.960 (just above the minor key resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: Below the liquidity zone Take Profit: Below the major key resistance Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by both technical indicators and a favorable fundamental outlook. Key economic indicators from the US, such as PMI, retail sales, and the Federal Funds rate, will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the USD's strength against the JPY. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and ensure proper risk management strategies are in place. Fundamental Outlook (USD/JPY) US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (Monday): Healthy profit-taking may occur; strong PMI could support USD. US Retail Sales (Tuesday): Positive retail sales data may boost consumer confidence and strengthen the USD. Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement (Wednesday): Anticipated rate decisions could lead to a resumption of upward momentum for the USD. US GDP and Unemployment Claims (Thursday): Strong GDP growth and low unemployment claims would further support the USD. Core PCE Price Index (Friday): Rising inflation could prompt expectations of interest rate hikes, bolstering the USD. Overall, while profit-taking may occur early in the week, a resumption of bullish sentiment for USD/JPY is likely as key economic data is released.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar. The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists. Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy. Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome. We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair. Our Initial Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Approaching Key Fibonacci ResistanceChart Analysis: The USD/JPY pair has extended its rally and is now approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 157.19, a critical resistance zone for the current uptrend. 1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.6% retracement of the downtrend from 161.80 to 138.00 aligns near 157.19, making it a key area for traders to watch for potential reversals or a breakout continuation. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): The pair is comfortably above this level at 152.50, highlighting strong short-term bullish momentum. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 152.21, confirming the broader upward trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 68.44, nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential slowdown or consolidation in the short term. MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong as the MACD line trends higher, signaling continued buying pressure. What to Watch: A breakout above 157.19 could open the path for a retest of the 161.80 highs. If the pair stalls at Fibonacci resistance, traders may look for support around the 50-day SMA near 152.50. USD/JPY is at a pivotal resistance zone. While the trend remains bullish, momentum indicators suggest caution as price approaches critical levels. -MW
by FOREXcom
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could rise to the 1st support which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 153.97 1st Support: 152.71 1st Resistance: 154.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDJPY💡The chart shows technical analysis of the USD/JPY currency pair on the daily time frame (D1). If the price remains within the liquidity zone, there may be an opportunity to sell with a target towards support levels (S1 or S2). If the price breaks the liquidity zone to the upside, it may head to the next resistance (R.1). MACD indicator: It indicates clear upward momentum, which supports the continued rise to resistance areas. However, you should constantly monitor the indicator, especially if the green bars start decreasing or red bars appear, to identify any possible reversal. We wait for the selling momentum to start. ⛔️It is not investment advice for educational purposes only.
by Adhamcurrency