USD_JPY RISKY SHORT|
✅USD_JPY made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 146.133 which is a
Resistance now and the pair
Is now making a pullback
But as we are bearish biased
We will be expecting a move
Down after the pair retests
The new resistance
SHORT🔥
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USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Long Setup – W Pattern + 4H OB ConfluenceAfter price rejected the previous 4H OB with a bearish M-pattern and engulfing confirmation @146.766, the bearish move extended and tapped into a deeper 4H Order Block, where we now see a well-structured W reversal pattern forming @145.310. Below is my technical Confluence.
Technical Confluence:
✅ Clear 4H Bullish Order Block acting as demand
✅ Well-formed W pattern with balanced symmetry
✅ Strong bullish rejection candles at the second leg (1H Tweezer Candle)
✅ Price swept liquidity beneath previous lows before reversing — classic smart money signature
✅ Volume spike and slowing bearish momentum confirm potential reversal
Trade Rationale:
This long entry is taken based on the confluence of a 4H OB and a confirmed W pattern, which often signals a potential reversal or temporary bullish correction. The second leg of the W also aligns with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on lower timeframes, indicating institutional interest.
Risk Note:
Always manage your risk — even when technicals align perfectly, fundamentals or unexpected news can influence volatility. Keep risk per trade minimal and allow structure to confirm the move.
USD/JPY Poised for Breakout: Watch the 145.60 TriggerUSD/JPY remains in a broader uptrend, with buyers defending the 141.00–144.50 support zone on the daily chart. While price has recently pulled back from the 148.50 high, the overall structure remains bullish. On the hourly timeframe, the pair has been moving within a descending channel since May 13. However, a double bottom near 141.80 and a push back toward 145.50 suggest buyers are regaining control. A breakout above the channel resistance at 145.60 could signal the end of the correction and a new leg higher toward 147.00–148.00.
The 15-minute chart supports this setup, showing a bull-flag consolidation above 145.20 and rising trendline support near 145.10. Volume has thinned during the flag formation, indicating a potential surge on breakout. Traders should look to buy above 145.60, targeting 146.20 and 146.80, with stops just below 145.00. A break under 145.00 flips the short-term bias bearish, with downside targets at 144.60 and 144.20.
Overall, the technicals favor a bullish breakout scenario into the week, provided 145.00 holds. Intraday traders should closely monitor the 145.00–145.60 zone for momentum confirmation.
USD/JPY(20250516)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rate is no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% in April.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
145.93
Support and resistance levels:
147.26
146.77
146.44
145.42
145.10
144.61
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.93, consider buying, the first target price is 146.44
If the price breaks through 145.42, consider selling, the first target price is 145.10
Yen Strengthens Despite Japan’s Q1 ContractionThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 145 per dollar, extending its rally for a fourth straight day, despite Japan’s economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter, worse than forecasts. While the Bank of Japan acknowledged the risks posed by U.S. trade policies, it remains confident that rising wages and prices will support eventual policy normalization. Investors are closely watching U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, with Japan insisting that any deal must include the auto sector and that the 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese cars be removed.
Resistance is noted at 148.60, with further barriers at 149.80 and 151.20. Major support levels lie at 139.70, 137.00, and 135.00.
USDJPY Repriced for a Better Short OpportunityIn my initial trade shared during the Asian session, USDJPY swept the sell-side liquidity and formed a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG). Price action has now provided a refined entry point for a continuation short setup.
The recent liquidity sweep, followed by displacement, suggests that the market may aim for the recent low — with the potential to push even further if bearish momentum continues. My short position is now aligned with this structure, and I’ll be watching closely for signs of continuation or rejection near key support levels.
Long Swing Idea – Waiting on Confirmation at Wedge SupportRefining the previous idea: Price is holding the lower boundary of an Ascending Broadening Wedge, showing signs of support rejection. However, we’re noticing a clear decline in bullish momentum. No rush to enter—we wait for strong confirmation before committing to a swing long. A solid reaction or breakout of a minor structure will be the signal. Until then, patience is the edge.
USDJPY Short: Continue Wave 3 downThis is an update to the original USDJPY short idea posted 2 days back. We have completed wave 1 and wave 2 and is currently on wave 3. There is a break of a trendline that helps confirm our wave 3 hypothesis.
The initial target remains the same at around $140. However, the stop loss is now lowered to 147.20, above wave 2 high.
Good luck!
USD/JPY H4 | Overlap resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 145.82 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 147.11 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 144.16 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDJPY – 4hr Breakdown – May 16USDJPY has pulled back, filled the Sunday gap, and is now approaching the bottom of the bullish channel we’ve been monitoring.
🔹 Main interest is at 144.767 — key level to look for long entries
🔹 If this support holds, we can expect a swing move to form a new higher high, giving us potential for ~500 pips
🔹 No sell positions unless we break the structure with a close below 143.802
🔹 If that happens, 142.00 becomes the first target
This remains a structure-led swing setup — patience is key until confirmation shows.
Bearish USD/JPY — Yen Strength FavoredCMCMARKETS:USDJPY Bearish Factors (USD Negative / JPY Positive):
Hawkish BoJ Expectations:
Despite Japan’s weaker Q1 GDP, BoJ officials—particularly Deputy Governor Uchida—have signalled openness to resuming rate hikes in 2025. A Reuters survey suggests a potential 25bps hike before year-end. This divergence from the Fed’s stance supports JPY strength.
Dovish Fed Outlook Intensifies:
Weak U.S. April PPI and retail sales figures reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts this year. Falling Treasury yields and soft inflation readings weigh heavily on the dollar.
Resistance : 146.75 , 145.87
Support : 144.91 , 143.52
BUY USDJPYThe pair
D1= is creating HH/HL
We waited to reach at the point of at least HL (it has reached 50 level of Fib in a 1D
If we observe fundamentally; yesterday the news pushed down the USD to accomplish the filling of the opening gap for this week.
Today at 0000+hrs the JPY has announced negative news to them.
The signal given is giving the probability of reversing to the upside.
Let us see the way it will behave.
USD/JPY - Trendline Breakout (14.05.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 145.34
2nd Support – 143.81
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USDJPY LONG📘 Trading Journal Entry – USD/JPY
Date: May 16, 2025
Timeframe: 2H
Pair: USD/JPY
Direction: Long (Buy)
Entry Price: ~145.5
Stop Loss: 144.818
Take Profit: 149.254
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:5
🧠 Trade Idea & Reasoning:
I’ve re-entered this trade based on strong bullish control of the market. Price has returned to a key support zone near 145.470–145.539, showing signs of holding despite recent downside pressure. Sellers have attempted to push price lower, but failed to break cleanly below — suggesting a liquidity sweep may have occurred (noted near the W.O. level).
There is no clear evidence yet that sellers have taken control. The market structure is still bullish, and the recent consolidation near support indicates possible accumulation by buyers. Additionally, price is forming smaller candle bodies (reduced volatility), which may precede an expansion upward.
🔍 Technical Notes:
Support Zone Held: 145.470–145.539 range held firm.
W.O. Sweep: Potential stop hunt below support zone; a bullish sign.
Market Structure: Bullish higher timeframe structure still intact.
Risk Managed: Stop placed below liquidity zone to protect capital in case of failure.
🎯 Trade Management Plan:
Monitor Tokyo/London session for momentum confirmation.
Look for bullish engulfing candles or strong impulse moves to validate re-entry.
If price stalls near 147.000, partial profits may be taken.
If price re-tests 145.470 and fails again, I may add to the position with tighter risk.
🧾 Reflection:
This is a high R:R setup aligned with the prevailing bullish trend. I’m trading based on structure, not emotion, and will stick to my plan. The stop loss placement respects the invalidation zone, and I’m prepared to accept the risk in full.
USDJPY: FVG Then Bullish Overflow?It has been a significant week for USD/JPY. Following a break of structure (BOS) on the 4-hour timeframe, price moved away from equilibrium, leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG). As the new week begins, we may observe a false move designed to induce traders into premature short positions before a potential bullish reversal—or vice versa. Additionally, given the recent BOS, price may temporarily stall to facilitate order accumulation. Next week will be pivotal in determining the pair’s next direction.
Watch out for the key levels