USDJPY 1W forecast until September 2025A huge inverted Head&Shoulders has been started. Volatility chop-chop. Left shoulder is ready and the price is heading up to the base at 145.188
In the middle of June we will see a fast fall to print Head bottoming at 138.75
Before printing Right shoulder the price has to visit the base again in the beginning of August 2025
What will happen in September? I will keep posting and updating (if I see necessity) 1W chart here. For 1D weekly updates check 'Also on' in my Profile.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY 1W tf forecast until August 2025 Current midterm bias is bullish. 150,64 and 142,78 are extreme levels to be respected by the price action. One more week of red week of sideways movement will actually form a reversal pattern followed by a strong upward spike. A powerful breakout to 148,27 is to be retested at 145,34 - healthy retest. July will show an organic growth topping at 149.66 in the beginning of August 2025
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
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USDJPY Trading RangeUSDJPY saw some corrections late on Friday. Overall, the pair remains sideways in a wide range of 143,000-145,100 and has yet to establish a clear continuation trend.
The wider band in the sideways trend is extended at 146,000 and 142,000.
The trading strategy will be based on the band that is touched.
Pay attention to the breakout as it may continue the strong trend and avoid trading against the trend when breaking.
Support: 143,000, 142,000
Resistance: 145,000, 146,000
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Wave 5 Upside Target at 144.67USD/JPY is currently consolidating around the 144.00 level, suggesting the end of wave 4 within a 5-wave impulsive structure. Price action indicates potential for wave 5 to begin, with a projected target near 144.67.
Wave 1 to 3 appears clean and impulsive, with wave 3 extending strongly — a common trait in trending markets.
Wave 4 seems to be forming a flat or shallow zigzag correction, respecting typical retracement territory (between 23.6%–38.2% of wave 3).
If wave 4 holds above 143.80 (your stop), this level serves as the ideal invalidator for the current bullish structure.
Wave 5 would likely aim for 144.67, aligning with the 100% or 123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave 1, projected from wave 4's bottom.
Momentum indicators on lower timeframes are stabilizing, supporting the idea that downside pressure is waning and that the next leg higher may be imminent.
A break above 144.20–144.30 could confirm the wave 5 initiation. As long as price holds above 143.80, the risk-reward remains favorable toward the upside.
Dollar Momentum Fades | Can 143.07 Hold as Support?USDJPY – Dollar Momentum Fades | Can 143.07 Hold as Support?
🌍 Fundamental & Macro Outlook
USDJPY has faced strong downside pressure recently as risk-off sentiment boosts demand for the Japanese Yen, following escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied on geopolitical concerns but is struggling to sustain momentum near the 98.30 resistance zone.
Despite the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, JPY is acting as a safe haven in current global risk conditions.
Traders are awaiting next week’s monetary policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Both central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged, but forward guidance could spark major volatility.
According to UOB Group, the dollar's recovery potential is weakening, and further downside toward 142.20 is possible, unless price reclaims the 144.60–144.95 resistance zone.
📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
🔸 Trend Structure
USDJPY remains in a mild downtrend, but price has bounced from the 143.074 key support zone.
A recovery towards 144.624 is in play, but that zone must be cleared for bullish continuation.
🔸 EMA Outlook
Price is currently testing the EMA 89 and 200 — a rejection from this area could trigger another move down.
EMA 13 & 34 are now acting as short-term dynamic support.
🔸 Key Price Zones
Resistance: 144.60 – 145.26
Support: 143.07 – 142.20
🧠 Market Sentiment
Risk aversion continues to dominate as geopolitical headlines drive sentiment.
The Yen is benefitting from capital protection flows despite Japan’s dovish stance.
Large funds may be starting to hedge by rotating into JPY from elevated USD levels.
🎯 Trading Scenarios for June 13
📌 Scenario 1 – Short Setup (Rejection at Resistance)
Entry: 144.60 – 144.90
Stop-Loss: 145.30
Take-Profit: 143.60 → 143.07 → 142.50
📌 Scenario 2 – Long Setup (Rebound from Support)
Entry: 143.10 – 143.20
Stop-Loss: 142.70
Take-Profit: 144.00 → 144.60
✅ Wait for confirmation at key levels — avoid trading in the middle of the range when volatility is headline-driven.
✅ Conclusion
USDJPY remains trapped between strong resistance at 145.26 and buying interest at 143.07. If risk sentiment persists, the Yen may continue to strengthen. However, central bank decisions next week (Fed & BoJ) will be the major catalysts for any medium-term breakout.
USDJPY Strong support formed. Excellent buy opportunity.The USDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Down since the start of the year but following the April 22 Low, it has been rising on Higher Lows. Today that trend-line was tested and again produced a rebound (so far).
Since the April 22 Low was very close to the 139.600 Support (from the September 16 2024 Low), there are higher probabilities that we will have a trend change to bullish, at least for the medium-term.
The natural Resistance now is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), so we will target just below it at 148.675 (Resistance 1).
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Yen Rallies as Risk Aversion ReturnsThe Japanese yen strengthened to approximately 143 per dollar, marking a third consecutive day of gains as investors turned to safe-haven assets following Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran. The operation, aimed at nuclear facilities, heightened global risk aversion. Adding to market uncertainty were renewed U.S. tariff threats by Trump. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated the bank’s readiness to raise interest rates if inflation nears the 2% target.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
USDJPY Daily Analysis – Bullish Opportunity Brewing USDJPY has bounced off the strong demand zone (orange box) multiple times, signaling solid buyer interest near 140.550 – 141.855. Price is currently reacting bullishly after testing this zone again, forming a potential higher low—a classic bullish continuation signal.
🔵 The 150.635 resistance remains a mid-term target, but a clean break above it could open the way toward the major supply zone around 160.606 where heavy institutional interest may come in.
🟨 Notice how price has respected this demand zone since late 2023, forming a possible accumulation range. With upcoming U.S. economic data (highlighted by the flag icons), volatility is expected—traders should be prepared for a strong breakout move.
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📌 Trade Idea:
Buy Limit: 141.800 (inside demand zone)
SL: 139.800 (below support structure)
TP1: 150.635
TP2: 160.000+
✅ Risk-Reward: Favorable
📈 Trend: Bullish on confirmation of higher low
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🔍 Watchlist Add-On: If price fails to hold above 140.550, sellers might retest 137.000 zones. Manage risk accordingly.
📅 Upcoming Events: Watch for NFP, CPI, and BoJ pressers—high volatility expected.
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💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—Bullish or Bearish bias on USDJPY?
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USDJPY has breakout the descending channel bullish strong nowFX:USDJPY Alert – Bullish Breakout in Play!
1H Timeframe | Descending Channel Breakout
📈 Entry: 144.300
🎯 Target 1: 146.000 (Key Resistance)
🛡️ Stop Loss: 142.700 (Demand Zone / Bullish OB)
After a clean breakout above the descending channel, USDJPY is showing strong bullish momentum. Price action confirms a potential move toward the next resistance level.
🔍 Technicals are lining up. Risk managed. Eyes on the prize.
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USD/JPY(20250613)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The monthly rate of the core PPI in the United States in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders once again fully priced in the Fed's two interest rate cuts this year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.73
Support and resistance levels:
145.09
144.58
144.25
143.21
142.88
142.37
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.73, consider buying in, the first target price is 144.25
If the price breaks through 143.21, consider selling in, the first target price is 142.88
trend lineUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – 1H Chart
Price is currently testing a key confluence support zone formed by the ascending channel's lower boundary and the horizontal level at 142.78. A bullish rejection candle suggests a potential rebound toward the 143.88 resistance level. If this level breaks, further upside toward the upper channel boundary is likely. However, a confirmed break below 142.78 could signal bearish continuation. Monitor price action closely for confirmation.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has rejected off the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 143.94
1st Support: 142.68
1st Resistance: 144.52
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