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USDJPY trade ideas

Can USD/JPY rebound from this key support? the USD/JPY has been consolidating its recent gains in the last couple of days, with price testing the upper band of the 152.85 - 151.95 support area after retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level circa 153.40. This week's mixed US data has taken some shine off the US dollar, but with the election uncertainty hanging over the markets, the dollar is unlikely to sell off significantly until at least the election is out of the way. With that in mind, the USD/JPY could easily rebound from the 152.85 - 151.95 support area and break through the 61.8% Fib resistance. If it gets above it, then the next upside target would be 155.00, a psychologically important level. The line in the sand for me is at 151.45, where the 200-day average and the most recent low come into play. For as long as this area holds, the short-term path of least resistance remains to the upside. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY Slips as Verbal Intervention Boosts Yen, US Data LoomsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support on Thursday following verbal intervention from officials, which helped reverse part of the previous session’s steep losses against the US Dollar (USD). This recovery dragged the USD/JPY pair down below the 152.00 region during the early European session, after hitting its lowest level since July 31 overnight. However, doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further—exacerbated by Japan’s upcoming election-related uncertainties—could limit the Yen’s rebound. Key US Economic Data on the Horizon Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US economic data, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. The release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the S&P Global PMI figures is expected to drive market sentiment in the second half of the day. Forecasts suggest that new applications for unemployment benefits could climb towards the 250,000 mark, indicating potential weakness in the US labor market. If confirmed, this data could trigger a bearish reaction in the USD, putting additional pressure on the USD/JPY. Volatility Ahead for USD/JPY With these critical data points set to shape market dynamics, traders should brace for potential volatility in the USD/JPY pair. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims could challenge the recent bullish trend of the US Dollar, offering further support to the JPY. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, the price has shown some reaction to the overhead supply zone. However, traders will likely wait for the outcome of the US economic releases before committing to a bearish setup. If the data comes in softer than expected, it could trigger a stronger JPY rebound, potentially setting up for a bearish move in USD/JPY. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, the pair might regain some bullish momentum. Patience is key as traders await clearer signals post-data release to determine the next directional move for USD/JPY. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
USDJPY Will Fall! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 153.142. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 147.275 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bearish Bias for October 30, 2024Find out what’s driving a potential bearish trend for USDJPY today. Explore the latest analysis of USDJPY with insights on central bank policies, risk sentiment, and technical trends that could impact this popular currency pair. --- Introduction Today, October 30, 2024, USDJPY may lean slightly bearish as a confluence of economic and fundamental factors unfolds in favor of the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). This article analyzes the forces potentially influencing a decline in USDJPY, including central bank actions, the latest market sentiment, and key technical indicators. This analysis is essential for traders seeking insights into the short-term trajectory of USDJPY. Current Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion USDJPY typically reflects shifts in global risk sentiment, with the Japanese yen often viewed as a safe-haven currency. Recent signs of global economic caution have led to a “risk-off” sentiment, benefiting the JPY as investors look to reduce exposure to riskier assets. Additionally, concerns over U.S. economic stability have cast a shadow over the dollar, potentially encouraging a mild bearish tilt in USDJPY. Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY 1. Bank of Japan’s Policy and Yield Curve Control The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has remained consistent with its ultra-loose monetary policy, particularly its yield curve control (YCC) measures. However, with recent statements indicating potential tweaks to long-term interest rates, there is speculation that the BoJ may be open to slight policy adjustments to control inflation. A BoJ with even minor adjustments on the table could create downward pressure on USDJPY as expectations build for a stronger yen. 2. U.S. Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Outlook The U.S. Federal Reserve’s approach remains a major influence on USDJPY. As markets anticipate that the Fed might pause or slow down its rate hike trajectory due to signs of slowing growth, this uncertainty around rate increases could dampen USD demand, thereby adding to USDJPY’s potential bearish bias. Any U.S. economic data releases today, such as inflation or consumer confidence indicators, could further impact USDJPY if they reflect economic cooling. 3. Risk Aversion and Safe-Haven Flows Growing risk aversion in the global markets favors the Japanese yen, as it traditionally acts as a safe-haven currency during uncertain times. With geopolitical tensions and financial market uncertainty persisting, demand for the yen could increase, putting downward pressure on USDJPY. Investors often turn to the yen in times of volatility, and today’s market conditions support that trend. 4. Economic Data from Japan and U.S. Economic data out of Japan has shown moderate improvement, suggesting the potential for a slightly stronger yen. Japan’s latest industrial output and consumer spending figures indicate resilience, adding support to the yen. Conversely, any soft U.S. economic data today could reduce USD appeal, enhancing a bearish bias for USDJPY. Technical Overview On the technical side, USDJPY is trading near key resistance levels, and a downward break could signal further declines. With momentum indicators such as the RSI showing overbought conditions, traders might see bearish opportunities if USDJPY breaks below the 20-day moving average. A drop below key support levels could further confirm a short-term bearish outlook for the pair. Conclusion The USDJPY outlook for today points to a slight bearish bias, fueled by risk aversion, potential policy tweaks from the BoJ, and moderate U.S. dollar weakness in the face of Fed uncertainty. While there are several factors at play, traders should monitor any significant data releases that could shift sentiment and impact the USDJPY trend. This analysis is essential for traders focused on USDJPY’s short-term fluctuations amid shifting economic indicators and market sentiment. --- SEO Keywords: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY today, Japanese yen forecast, USDJPY bearish bias, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve outlook, USDJPY risk sentiment, forex trading USDJPY, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY trend.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Buy Summary USD/JPY chart appears to show a channel pattern with both upper and lower trend lines, suggesting the pair is trading within a defined range. The price currently sits near the midline of this channel, indicating a potential opportunity for continuation or reversal. The channel’s upper and lower trend lines provide key resistance and support levels. The price action within this range indicates that traders might expect it to stay within these boundaries unless there’s a significant breakout. There’s a clear resistance level around 153.912, with support at 152.405 and 151.492. These levels might act as decision points, where price could either continue or reverse its direction. Overall, if the price respects the channel’s lower trend line, a bullish entry aiming for the upper trend line could be reasonable. However, keep an eye on the key support and resistance levels, as well as any external events, as they may influence the price movement significantly.
Long
by Botla
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/30/2024This is my idea Nbr 17 after 15 ✅️ USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/30/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
1
Traditional markets quiet, bitcoin making movesIt’s been relatively calm in traditional markets. Currencies are flat, stocks are steady, and commodities are consolidating. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are heating up, with Bitcoin making a push back towards its record high from earlier this year. Gold is holding just under record highs, and oil is consolidating after another sharp drop at the start of the week—two very different stories in the commodities space. On Tuesday, Japan’s Akazawa commented on the yen’s weakness, noting that authorities are closely monitoring the political landscape. Additionally, reports indicate Japan’s Prime Minister may seek support from the opposition Democratic Party to form a partial coalition. In the Eurozone, German consumer confidence showed strength, while in the UK, mortgage approvals reached their highest level since the fallout from the mini-budget of 2022. Looking ahead, key releases include the Bank of Canada’s MPR, Canadian wholesale sales, the U.S. goods trade balance, Case-Shiller house prices, JOLTS job openings, and consumer confidence data. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen. Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election. Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
by BlackBull_Markets
Trade Recap: EURUSD - SHORT & USDJPY - LONG, 29/10/2024EU Bias Analysis: Although price is deeply discounted on the 1D timeframe, the 4H counter trend persists. Short entries were in line with the 1H bearish range and price pulled back into the 79% OTE area, which confluently overlapped with a 1H bearish OB. Grade: High Quality Valid UJ Bias Analysis: Similarly to EU, price from a 1D perspective was in a premium area but with the 4H counter trend also persisting, the bias remained long and in line with the 1H bullish range. After a pullback into the OTE area following high volume news releases, I waited for a retest of the 1H FVG to seek entry confirmation. Grade: Valid What I did well or could've done better - Persisting in my execution of EU shorts despite being taken out on multiple occasions (both at full loss and with partial profits) - Read through the news "noise" and executed on UJ longs despite the volume which could've been misleading. - Executed on my phone and set the wrong take profit area. Had I not done this recap, I probably would've left money on the table (Given full TP is realised) so I need to be mindful of double checking trade parameters on my laptop if execution takes place on my phone.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader