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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY Market Analysis 26/09/2024 After 70 days of constant decline, the USD/JPY pair has finally managed to break the descending trendline and exit the prolonged bearish trend. At the moment, it is still unclear whether this is a long-term trend reversal or just a short-term pullback within the larger downtrend. The charts clearly show a breakout of the main descending trendline, followed by a flip of the horizontal and diagonal support/resistance levels, which further confirmed the significance of this move. This breakout has been tested and validated at multiple levels — first at the diagonal trendline, and then at the horizontal support level. One of the key signals for this potential reversal is the bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, which indicated a weakening of the selling pressure and a potential trend change. This signal was further strengthened by the crossover of the Moving Average 7 above the Moving Average 21, which occurred right before the breakout. After the breakout confirmation, the price managed to reclaim the 0.236 Fibonacci level, but it is now facing a crucial resistance at the MA 200 level, which will determine the next direction. We are currently at a critical juncture — either we break through this level and head towards the 0.382 Fibonacci level, or we retrace and test the horizontal support once more, which now serves as a key support zone. It remains to be seen whether the price can maintain these levels or if it will revert back into the previous trend. If we see another successful test of the horizontal support, it could indicate further upside potential and a transition into a more stable bullish trend.
by RhinoAkaBear
USD/JPY Analysis - September 30, 2024Based on the current technical review and previous analyses, we observe key changes on the USD/JPY chart. After the pair broke through a key resistance level, a pullback has occurred, allowing us to identify important technical zones and opportunities for entering scalp positions. In this analysis, we consider the main aspects of this breakout, the pullback, and potential for further growth. Breakout of Key Resistance and Pullback: The breakout was anticipated based on prior analyses. Following this breakout, the price began to retrace back towards previous resistance levels, which have now become support. The zone where this retracement is occurring coincides with the 0.61 - 0.65 Fibonacci level, further confirming the strength of this area as a "golden pocket" for potential reversals. Bullish Divergence and Volume Loss: As the price fell to this confluence, bullish divergence formed on lower timeframes, signaling a possible return of buying strength. The decrease in volume during this time indicates a loss of momentum among sellers, which contributed to the decision to enter a scalp position and take advantage of the bounce from this level. Trendline as Temporary Support: The diagonal trendline has served as crucial support during the bounce. The plan is to monitor this trendline, and if it is breached, a retest of the previous support level is expected, which will open a new opportunity for entry. This could be a key moment for establishing a new uptrend, as a support/resistance flip at this level is likely to trigger a new wave of buying activity. Fibonacci Golden Pocket (0.61 - 0.65 Fib Level): This zone is one of the most reliable areas for seeking price reversals in technical analysis. Located within the "golden pocket," it provides additional confluence that can confirm the validity of the plan. This zone often attracts investors as it represents an optimal balance between retracement and potential growth. Expected Setup and Take Profit Target: The target, set at 147.827, represents a resistance level that the price may test again after successfully flipping support into resistance. This target is logically set based on previous high price levels, while the setup offers a potentially very high Risk/Reward ratio of over 6.19, making it exceptionally attractive for trading. ⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️ 🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
by RhinoAkaBear
Falling towards overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 147.15 1st Support: 145.78 1st Resistance: 149.29 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY: The Big Zone is Almost Back in-PlayUSD/JPY has continued to rally after last month's false breakout at the 140.00 handle, which is part of a large zone of longer-term support spanning from 139.28 up to 140.30. I tracked that setup in these ideas, first with the support test itself: and then the initial bounce: and then the build of a falling wedge + the higher-low from the FOMC rate cut: and then a focus on higher-low support at 142.50 or 141.69, the latter of which held the low a few weeks ago before buyers pushed a major move in the pair: Now? USD/JPY is nearing a make-or-break point on the chart with the 150-151.95 zone. This is the same spot that caught the highs in the pair in Q4 of 2022 and 2023. It held the highs through Q1 trade until, eventually, an above-expected CPI print prodded a run on stops above that price followed by a bullish breakout to above the 160.00 handle. Now that level is almost back into play and it seems that there's not many bears left; much of what I'm seeing on social media seems tilted bullish despite the fact that the main driver behind the initial trend - the carry trade - is still widely-expected to begin going the other way. While US rate cut bets have been pushed out given a strong spate of recent data, they still persist for 2025 trade with a current probability of > 62% that the Fed cuts by at least 150 bps into the end of next year. That would imply another 50 bps this year, and 100 bps next year and 100 bps of cuts in a year is traditionally a strong cutting cycle. This, of course, would narrow the rate divergence in the pair, even if the Bank of Japan is not thinking of hiking rates and that could further nullify the attractiveness of long-side carry. So, while near-term price action remains bullish, the 150-151.95 zone presents an opportunity for those long-term carry traders to get out of the trade with a minimum of damage to the bigger-picture trend. Notably, the 50% mark of the sell-off is near the middle of that zone at 150.77. - js
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY October Market Analysis: Bearish Structure and Key Sell USD/JPY October Market Analysis and Trading Setup In the month of October, we are observing an open high-low-close structure on the USD/JPY, which strongly suggests the development of a potential sell setup. At this point, we are awaiting further confirmation through a TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross, which will signal the appropriate entry points for sell positions. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Divergence: Since August 16, 2024, there has been a clear bearish divergence, extending from that date to the current market high. 2. Daily Timeframe Structure: The open-high structure on the daily chart for October further strengthens the bearish outlook. 3. Overbought Conditions: The market appears significantly overbought, following a bullish breakout that began on October 1, 2024. 4. TDI Cross as Confirmation: A bearish cross in the TDI indicator will serve as confirmation of the presence of sellers, providing an essential signal for initiating sell positions. Targeted Take Profit Levels: - Take Profit 1: 147.500 - Take Profit 2: 146.500 - Take Profit 3: 145.500 - Take Profit 4: 144.500 Trading Advice: It is crucial to wait for valid signals, such as the TDI cross, to confirm entries before taking action. Always trade with caution, and ensure risk management strategies are in place to protect your capital. If you found this analysis helpful, please like, comment, and follow for more updates. I will gladly follow back. Wishing you success in your trades!
Short
by ezeepips
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