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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY climbs, markets eye TrumpThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.53, up 0.68% on the day. There are no key releases in the US today. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and President Trump will address the World Economic Forum. Trump has vowed to levy tariffs on US trading partners, including China and the European Union. The financial markets are taking his threats seriously, and on Monday, his first day in office as President, Trump announced that he was delaying applying tariffs until Feb. 1. That announcement was a relief for the market and the US dollar fell sharply against many of the majors, although the yen failed to gain ground. Will Trump's comments at the World Economic Forum shake up the financial markets? Investors are keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision and December Core CPI on Friday. The central bank has hinted at a rate hike at the rate meeting and is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. The BoJ's tightening cycle makes it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which are easing rates in response to lower inflation. Japan's core inflation rate has been steadily rising and is expected to climb to 3% y/y in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is a key gauge of inflation trends, has remained above the BoJ target of 2% for over two years and is a key reason why the BoJ is tightening policy. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.51 and 156.24. Above, there is resistance at 156.97 154.78 and 154.05 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY 100PIP MOVE TO THE HIGH1. Current Market Conditions & Entry Setup: Recent Price Action: Look for confirmation that USDJPY is in a bullish phase. If the pair has recently broken through resistance or is trending higher, a 100-pip move upwards is more likely. Support and Resistance Levels: Identify a key support level or price consolidation zone to enter the trade. For instance, if USDJPY is currently around 131.50, check if there’s a recent support level around 131.00 that could hold. Trend Confirmation: Ensure that the price is consistently making higher highs and higher lows (bullish trend). This suggests continued upward movement, increasing the probability of a 100-pip move. 2. Technical Indicators: RSI: Look for the RSI to be around 50-60, signaling room for upward movement without being overbought (i.e., avoiding an RSI reading above 70). Moving Averages: The pair should be above key moving averages (e.g., 50-period or 200-period moving averages) to confirm the bullish sentiment. MACD: A bullish crossover in the MACD can help confirm a potential upward move, especially if the MACD line is moving above the signal line.
Long
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
2
Bank of Japan Poised to Raise Rates to Highest in 17 Years!MARKET ALERT 🚨 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is poised to raise its short-term interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% at its upcoming meeting from January 23-24, marking the first rate hike since July 2024. This move, if confirmed, would lift Japan's borrowing costs to their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The USD/JPY pair is currently testing an important support level near 154.80, with a clear trendline from earlier December still holding. The recent price action shows a potential bounce, indicated by the green circle on the chart. Additionally, the RSI shows a neutral zone, which suggests a potential for a continuation or consolidation. As long as the 55-day EMA holds, the index could surge past 161.00 in the coming days BANK OF JAPAN's Decision: The BOJ's decision is driven by a combination of factors, including Japan's sustained inflation rate, which has exceeded the 2% target for nearly three years, and increasing wage gains that are expected to continue pushing inflation higher. This rate hike is seen as part of the BOJ's ongoing strategy to normalize monetary policy after years of ultra-loose interest rates aimed at combating deflation. Provide a caption (optional) In addition to raising rates, the BOJ is also likely to revise its inflation forecast to reflect these conditions. The bank is expected to signal that the economic conditions are ripe for further tightening, though the pace and timing of subsequent rate hikes will be closely watched by the markets. NIKKEI 300 Showing signs of Indecision since Sept 2024. Governor Kazuo Ueda and other senior officials have carefully prepared the market for this move, with recent statements hinting at the possibility of a rate increase. Market participants are now looking ahead to Ueda's post-meeting briefing for more details on future policy actions. However, risks remain, particularly with global uncertainties such as potential market volatility linked to U.S. politics under President Donald Trump. While the rate hike is seen as an important step in Japan's economic recovery, there are concerns about the potential consequences, especially given the country's historical challenges with low growth and inflation. This policy shift highlights the BOJ's determination to move away from its extraordinary monetary easing measures, but the central bank must carefully navigate potential risks to both the domestic economy and global financial stability. WHAT IT MEANS FOR CYPTO TRADERS and what should you do? Be cautious with your leveraged positions as the news unfolds. Set stop losses and hold on to your long-term investments. BTC/USDT Technical Analysis! Last year, similar news had a severe impact on Bitcoin, causing it to drop from $72k to $48k. It was a tough situation, and many traders got caught in the downturn. While Trump is pushing the market, this news could have a short-term negative effect on both crypto and global markets. Although I don't foresee anything major happening, it's always better to be safe than sorry. So, be prepared for any outcome. If this article adds any value please share it with your circle. Disclaimer: This article is meant for educational purposes only. Please do your research before making any trade decisions. Thank you #PEACE
by Cryptorphic
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects GainsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects Gains USD/JPY is correcting gains and now consolidates below 156.00. Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today - USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 157.00 and 156.60 levels. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.90 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/JPY Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 158.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 157.00 support against the Japanese Yen. The pair even settled below the 156.60 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 155.00 and the pair traded as low as 154.77. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a connecting bearish trend line at 155.90. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low. The first major resistance is near the 156.60 zone. If there is a close above the 156.60 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 157.00. The next major resistance is near 157.70, above which the pair could test 158.50 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is near 155.35. The next major support is near the 154.80 level. If there is a close below 154.80, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 154.00 support. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Trading Plan: Bullish Breakout for USD/JPYThis trading plan focuses on a bullish breakout scenario, where the price clears the resistance range between 156.275 and 156.608 and targets the completion of the Head and Shoulders pattern. Trading Plan: Bullish Breakout for USD/JPY This trading plan focuses on a bullish breakout scenario, where the price clears the resistance range between 156.275 and 156.608 and targets the completion of the Head and Shoulders pattern. 1. Market Conditions: The current market is consolidating near resistance. A breakout above the 156.608 resistance level signals the potential for a bullish continuation. The target aligns with the expected completion of the Head and Shoulders formation between 157.753 and 158.070. 2. Entry Criteria: Trigger for Entry: Place a buy stop order slightly above the upper resistance level at 156.650. This ensures confirmation of the breakout above the range. 3. Stop Loss Placement: Place the stop loss below the lower range of the support level at 156.100. This level accounts for potential false breakouts and keeps the trade risk-controlled. 4. Take Profit Targets: Target 1 (Conservative): 157.753 (completion of the first measured move in the Head and Shoulders pattern). Target 2 (Aggressive): 158.070 (completion of the full Head and Shoulders pattern). 5. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Entry: 156.650 Stop Loss: 156.100 (50-pip risk) Take Profit Levels: Target 1: 157.753 (110-pip reward) → Risk-to-Reward Ratio = 1:2.2 Target 2: 158.070 (142-pip reward) → Risk-to-Reward Ratio = 1:2.8 6. Trade Execution Plan: Monitor Volume: Ensure volume increases during the breakout to confirm strength. Confirm Momentum: Use indicators like RSI (crossing 50) or MACD bullish crossover for confirmation.
Long
by RNiles
2
USDJPY holding the MA50 (1d).USDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up since September. The price has tested, held and consolidated on the MA50 (1d) for the last 4 days (including today). This is a bullish signal, considering also that this is taking place near the bottom of the Channel Up. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 164.350 (+6.20% rise). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is below its MA trendline, on a sideways pattern that is similar to the September 16th 2024 and December 3rd 2024 bottoms. Please like, follow and comment!!
Long
by TradingBrokersView
USD/JPY - Bulls defending ? Monday may show significant volatility in markets following Trump investiture. Where the dollar will head to remains uncertain, number of FED cuts for 2025 remain uncertain but recent NFP reports and CPI showed strength in labor market and higher inflation, leaning towards a hawkish Fed for this start of the year. What matters for next week is Trump's investiture, market will be responsive to any type of communication from the incoming president. Trump has made it clear that he wants a weak dollar to reduce the trade deficit. Technical show that Dollar has gained incredible momentum over the past 4 weeks. There will be a clear dilemma for the markets on will Trump's politic will be inflationary (and cause Fed to hold rates higher for longer) or will he succeed in implementing a weaker dollar. Historically, Dollar fell the first months Trump was in office in 2017. - Currently, USD/JPY FX:USDJPY is trading around a key area around 156.000 around the 4H 20 EMA. Bulls showed up on Friday. Bulls reclaim 156.000 area of this 4H trading range: - If dollar remains strong next week, we could see the USD/JPY continue to trade within this 4H range, which would confirm a failed breakout from this TR and put our next target on 158.000. Multiple ways to trade this, scale in if bulls strong on Monday for aggressive traders or wait to see to see consecutive 4H bull bars for entries. -Valid fake outs often lead to aggressive moves in the opposite direction of the breakout as sellers may be trapped in a loosing trade leading to both bulls and bears buying. DXY TVC:DXY bounced of the bullish trending line: - The play for next week could be to see the dollar rally towards 110.000-110.500 area and see some potential reaction there, potentially some sideways trading before market decides its next move. Remember to be careful on this, last week USD/JPY was a bear bar closing below its lower half which may be a sell signal for next week. Next week will be volatile for markets so I'd recommend lowering your trading size. This is a C setup. Peace,
Long
by Baudoouin
USDJPY Volatility Alert: President Trump Takes Office and BoJ AhIt's a big week ahead for USDJPY traders and volatility has already started to increase to reflect that. Last week USDJPY bounced between a high on Tuesday of 158.20 and a low on Friday of 154.98, before recovering to close the week back at 156.27. Now much of that USDJPY volatility was tracking US 10 year bond yields, which fell after US inflation prints on Tuesday (PPI) and Wednesday (CPI) were not as high as some economists had feared, before bouncing on Friday. However, in the week ahead markets face a much sterner test. Donald Trump finally takes office on Monday as President of the United States, and after much speculation, traders and investors will finally get to see how strong he will be from day one regarding trade tariffs on key trading partners China, Canada, Mexico and the EU, as well as tax cuts and other election spending commitments. Will he be measured in his approach, starting small on trade tariffs and suggesting there could be more to come if certain stipulations aren't met, which may see the dollar trend lower, or will he go big from the start, with blanket global tariffs on all goods, which could stoke inflation fears, see US bond yields start climbing again, taking the dollar back up to higher levels. Now the BoJ get to watch this all unfold in real time and digest the impact President Trump's actions have on the direction of USDJPY before they decide whether or not to raise interest rates on Friday morning at 0300 GMT. Market expectations are for hike of 25bps (0.25%) after BoJ Governor Ueda stated last week that policymakers were considering a potential move. However, the BoJ have disappointed before and if USDJPY isn't pushing back up towards 160 again they may wait for another month of economic data readings. So may be there is potential for more USDJPY volatility than usual, and being prepared is always important. So, lets take a look at what the technicals say. Are USDJPY Technicals Telling Us Anything? Since posting the recent 158.88 recovery high on January 10th, price corrections have developed, in an attempt to unwind over-extended upside conditions. Within this type of price activity, it can sometimes be Fibonacci retracement levels that highlight potential support, and so far at least, it has been the 38.2% level at 154.98, that has held weakness. While much depends on future price activity, this support level may continue to be the focus at the start of the week. While this level remains intact, it’s possible fresh attempts to resume strength can be seen and extend what is still a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows in USDJPY prices, materialising since September 16th. If this proves to be the case, a potential resistance level may be the Bollinger mid-average at 157.32, and while closing breaks are not guaranteed, if it were to happen such moves may see a more extended phase of price strength towards higher levels. What if Support at 154.98 Gives Way? The 154.98 retracement support is still intact to start the week, and while this remains the case the potential may prove to be to the upside,. However, closing breaks lower, if seen could skew risks towards a resumption of price weakness towards support at 153.77, which is the 50% level on the chart above, or even 152.67, the 61.8% possible support. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USDJPYAs of January 21, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate is approximately 155.800, reflecting a recent strengthening of the yen against the U.S. dollar.  This movement is influenced by expectations of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) potentially raising interest rates, a significant policy shift not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.  Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, has expressed concerns over speculative positions affecting the yen, emphasizing the government’s focus on monitoring market volatility rather than specific yen levels.  Forecasts for the USD/JPY pair vary among financial institutions. UBS has adjusted its outlook, now expecting the exchange rate to reach 150 by the end of 2025, up from a previous estimate of 145, citing a strong U.S. dollar.  Conversely, ExchangeRates.org.uk projects a decline, forecasting the rate to fall to approximately 152.09 in two months, indicating a potential strengthening of the yen.  These projections underscore the dynamic nature of the forex market, influenced by monetary policies, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments.
Short
by HavalMamar