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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY...Continues to decline....Based on the analysis of USDJPY's technical setup, here's a structured trade plan: --- ### *USDJPY Short Trade Plan* *Trigger:* Consolidation below 148.90 (e.g., closing below on 4H/daily chart). *Entry:* After confirmed breakdown, ideally with a retest of 148.90 as resistance. *Target:* 147.00 (190-pip downside). *Stop Loss:* 50-70 pips above entry (e.g., 149.40–149.60 to account for volatility). *Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:3 to 1:4 (favorable). --- ### *Key Technical Rationale* 1. *Price Action:* - Rejection from 151.00 resistance (bearish structure). - Breakdown below 148.90 support confirms bearish continuation. 2. *Indicators:* - *Alligator:* Lips (green) crossing below Jaw (blue) signals trend reversal. - *MACD:* Cross below 0-line confirms bearish momentum acceleration. 3. *Target Validation:* - 147.00 aligns with prior swing lows and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% retracement from recent rally). --- ### *Risks to Consider* - *False Breakdown:* Watch for a swift reclaim of 148.90 (stop hunt). - *BoJ Intervention:* Risk of yen-buying intervention if JPY weakens sharply. - *Upcoming Data:* U.S. CPI/Jobs data or BoJ policy shifts could disrupt the setup. --- ### *Execution Tips* - Wait for *price confirmation* (e.g., two consecutive closes below 148.90). - Monitor MACD histogram for strengthening bearish momentum. - Hedge with a long JPY basket (e.g., short AUDJPY/GBPJPY) to diversify risk. --- *Final Note:* This trade aligns with bearish technicals, but stay agile given macro risks. Adjust stops if fundamentals shift.
Short
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
USDJPY STRONG FALLING OPPORTUNITY 1. 144.00 Support May Hold Strong The analysis assumes 144.00 will break, but this is a key psychological and historical support level. If buyers step in, USD/JPY could reverse back up instead of continuing downward. 2. Rebound Towards 150.00 Possible Instead of a lower low, USD/JPY could bounce off intermediate demand zones and attempt a retest of resistance at 150.00. US economic strength (inflation, interest rates) could support the dollar and invalidate the downtrend. 3. Lower Highs are Not Confirmed Yet If the price stays above 146.50, the trend could shift back bullish, disrupting the bearish projection. Lack of strong selling pressure near 147.00-146.00 could mean the market is undecided rather than fully bearish 4. Macroeconomic Factors Favor USD Strength If Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains dovish and the Fed keeps rates high, USD/JPY might resume its uptrend instead of falling
Long
by mrsamfx81
3
ANALYSIS ON THE USD/JPY PAIR (1D & 1H TF)On the Monthly TF, this pair has slowly been on an uptrend while taking impulsive moves and pullbacks along the way. Despite retesting the last temporary support zone around the 140 price level (in Sept 2024), recent events are showing that it may break below that region as we have seen a strong resistance around the 160 region. If it breaks below 139 we might see it dropping below to the 120. If it doesn't, then it will continue its Impulsive move and pullback pattern to a new ATH. Let's see how it plays out. PS: Don't forget that FA often affects TA (positively or negatively - depending on your analysis). #UseRiskManagement
by cryptossential
USDJPY Trading Symbol: USDJPY Timeframe: 15 minutes (15m) Overall Review: The USDJPY chart on the 15-minute timeframe indicates that the price is in a downtrend. The price appears to be consolidating near the support level. Key Points: Resistance Levels: The main resistance is around 147.624. This level acts as a ceiling, and the price may decrease if it encounters this area. The next resistance is around 148.000, which is a significant psychological level. Support Levels: The primary support is around 147.000. This level acts as a floor, and the price may increase if it reaches this area. The next support is seen around 146.500, which could be the next target for sellers if the previous support is broken. Possible Scenarios: Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 147.624 and decreases after encountering this area, there is a possibility that the downtrend will continue to the support level of 147.000. Traders can consider selling near the resistance and after receiving confirmation, while practicing risk management. Bullish Scenario: If the price can break through the resistance level of 147.624 and consolidate, there is a possibility of the price increasing to the 148.000 level. Traders can consider buying after the resistance is broken and a pullback occurs, while practicing risk management. Recommendations: Always practice risk management and use stop-loss orders. Before entering a trade, review fundamental factors and news related to USDJPY. Keep in mind that the forex market is very volatile, and analyses may change in the short term. Note: This analysis is just a perspective and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making trades.
Long
by yghadamgahi
USDJPY → Readiness to break the daily support levelFX:USDJPY is testing strong key support at 148.64 for a breakdown. A falling dollar could affect further movement The falling dollar is supporting the Japanese Yen, thus we may see the currency pair falling. The price is trying to break the support of the daily level. A pre-breakdown consolidation of 150.3 - 148.64 is formed relative to this support. The last retest of the level ended with a small false breakdown, indicating that there is no one to defend the support anymore, there was no reaction except for another local consolidation, the purpose of which is to accumulate the potential to break the support. Resistance levels: 150.3, 150.95 Support levels: 148.64, 147.17 The focus is on the level of 148.64 concerning which the market is struggling. The bulls have little chance to hold this level, as the dollar's fall exerts quite a lot of pressure. The breakdown and fixing of the price below 148.64 may provoke a fall to 147 - 144. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
Dollar-yen’s downtrend continues below ¥148The yen has generally continued to perform well in recent days as participants continue to focus on probable further tightening by the Bank of Japan this year as the outlook for rates in the USA has become somewhat more dovish. Although unemployment rose slightly in Japan to 2.5% last month, the job market there is overall quite strong while Japanese annual headline inflation reached a high of more than two years at 4%. Dollar-yen’s downtrend had seemed quite mature last week but now momentum has returned, pushing the price below support from the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement. Although there’s no oversold signal from either the slow stochastic or Bollinger Bands at the time of writing, the former remains very close to the zone of selling saturation. Volume meanwhile has increased significantly in recent days, which might suggest larger intraday movements. The next obvious strong support is the area of the 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥144.30. That would be quite an aggressive target, so it’d probably take the price a while to reach there if the downtrend continues. Continuation lower might be confirmed by two consecutive closes below ¥148. ¥151 is a possible short-term resistance based on behaviour earlier in the week. The upcoming NFP might complicate the current technical picture, especially if the result is at all surprising. Other things being equal, a better NFP suggests higher inflation also, and the opposite is also often true, so if there’s a surprise either way traders might start to price in expectations for next week’s CPI more firmly. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 6 March 2025 - USDJPY under bearish pressure - Likely to fall to support level 146.00 USDJPY currency pair is under bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the support zone between the support level 148.60 (the former monthly low from December) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from September. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the start of January. Given the strongly bullish yen sentiment seen today, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 146.00, the target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2).
Short
by FxProGlobal
USD/JPY – Precision Short Trade Breakdown🔥 Executed a precise short trade on USD/JPY this morning, aligning with institutional order flow and Prime Market Terminal insights. Here’s the full breakdown of how this setup played out! 🔍 Trade Setup & Analysis: 📌 Entry: 149.300 – Price rejected a key supply zone & Fibonacci retracement level. 📌 Stop Loss: 149.558 – Above key liquidity & invalidation area. 📌 Take Profit: 148.504 (first TP), 148.213 (final target). 📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 📊 Prime Market Terminal Insights That Confirmed This Trade: 🔻 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow: ✔ Smart Money Report: Large institutions were heavily net short USD/JPY, with leveraged funds reducing their long exposure. Dealer intermediaries (banks and liquidity providers) also added more short positions, indicating further downside momentum. ✔ COT (Commitment of Traders) Data: Open interest showed a significant drop in long positions, suggesting weakness in USD/JPY. Hedge funds and asset managers increasing short exposure aligned with my bearish bias. ✔ DMX Open Interest: 66% of institutional traders were short on USD/JPY, confirming my sell-side setup. Short positioning had increased by 34% in the last session, reinforcing my downside expectation. 🔻 Volatility & Liquidity Insights: ✔ Average True Range (ATR) Analysis: ATR showed a high probability of an extended move, suggesting the potential for price to hit my targets. Recent daily ranges indicated USD/JPY had room to move another 100+ pips to the downside. ✔ Session Range & Market Structure: Liquidity grab above 149.300 supply zone, followed by strong rejection and sell-off. Previous session lows were swept, indicating smart money targeting deeper liquidity. Institutional orders clustered around 148.200, suggesting a likely downside target. 🔻 High-Impact News That Influenced USD/JPY: 📢 Japanese Unemployment Rate (Actual: 2.5% | Forecast: 2.5%) → No surprise, minimal impact. 📉 Business Capex (MOF YY) (-0.2% vs. 8.1% previous) → Indicated economic slowdown, weakening JPY demand. 📰 U.S. Economic Data Later Today: Redbook YY (USD) expected at 6.2% – could impact USD sentiment. Fed’s Williams speech on monetary policy could affect USD volatility, reinforcing our bias. 🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome: ✅ TP HIT! Price dropped as expected, hitting both targets with precision. 🚀 Perfect confluence of: ✅ Smart money selling pressure ✅ Liquidity sweep & supply zone rejection ✅ High-probability move from ATR analysis 📸 Prime Market Terminal Screenshots Included: 📊 DMX Open Interest → Confirmed institutions were net short. 📊 COT Data → Showed decline in long positions. 📊 ATR & Volatility Charts → Supported extended downside movement. 📊 Session Ranges & Market Structure → Confirmed liquidity grab & supply zone rejection. 🔑 Key Takeaways from This Trade: ✔ Trade with institutional momentum – Always check positioning before entering! ✔ Multiple confirmations = High probability setups – Don’t rely on a single indicator. ✔ Liquidity is key – Smart money moves price to hunt liquidity, trade accordingly. ✔ Fundamentals matter – Weak JPY capex data helped push price lower. 💬 What’s your view on USD/JPY? Will we see further downside? Drop your thoughts below! 📊 Follow for more trade setups, market analysis & strategy breakdowns!
Short
by LDForex_
Yen Steady Near 149 as BOJ Hints at Possible Rate HikesThe yen held near 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from a weaker dollar amid a stronger euro and Trump’s tariffs. While Trump eased tariffs for some automakers, retaliatory measures pressured the dollar. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida signaled potential rate hikes if economic forecasts hold, noting financial conditions remain loose with minimal JGB reductions. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 148.60, followed by 147.10 and 145.80.
by ChartMage
USD JPY TECHENICAL TRADE 📉 USDJPY Breaks Downtrend Structure 📈 Monday started unexpectedly for traders with Trump's actions, which shook localized situations not only in the forex market… The imposition of tariffs, another batch of statements about the Eurozone, BRICS, and also this: "Trump said that the Fed made the right decision last week to suspend rate cuts" produced a corresponding reaction in the market. 🔥 On the back of inflation expectations, the dollar is accelerating its growth, thus provoking a rally in USDJPY. 🔍 Technical Outlook 📌 Resistance Levels: 155.95, 156.6 📌 Support Levels: 155.0, 153.6 ⚡ The price is trying to consolidate in the buying zone, but the resistance at 155.95 is holding the price back from active strengthening. 📊 Breakdown and consolidation above this area may provoke growth to the trend resistance
Long
by ExpertTrader041