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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY probability assessment of the next price movement:From analyzing the USD/JPY charts across different timeframes, here is a structured probability assessment of the next price movement: Market Structure Overview: Bearish Trend on Higher Timeframes (4H & 1D) The market has been trending downward, breaking previous lows. A clear Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (ChOCH) suggest bearish control. Discount Zones are marked, showing potential reaction areas. Liquidity & Order Flow Price is currently near a discount zone on the lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1H). Premium zones are visible on higher timeframes, meaning a retracement could happen before further downside. Key Levels: Resistance Zones: 151.000 - 152.000 Support Zones: 148.000 - 148.350 Equilibrium Levels: Around 150.000 Probability Scenarios: Bearish Continuation (65% Probability) Price is forming lower highs and lower lows. If price fails to break above 150.000 convincingly, a further decline to 148.350 - 148.000 is likely. BOS confirms continued bearish momentum. Bullish Retracement (35% Probability) If price reacts strongly at the discount area, a push toward 150.500 - 151.000 before continuing lower is possible. Confirmation required: A higher low formation and BOS in lower timeframes (15m, 30m). Trading Plan: Short (Sell) Plan - Higher Probability Entry: Around 149.500 - 150.000 (If price shows rejection) Confirmations Needed: Rejection from supply zone + bearish price action (e.g., bearish engulfing) Stop Loss: Above 150.500 Take Profit: 148.350 (1st target), 148.000 (2nd target) Risk-to-Reward: 1:3 Long (Buy) Plan - Lower Probability Entry: 148.350 - 148.000 (If price shows bullish reaction) Confirmations Needed: Strong bullish candles + BOS on lower timeframes Stop Loss: Below 147.800 Take Profit: 150.000 (1st target), 151.000 (2nd target) Risk-to-Reward: 1:3 Final Summary Table Scenario Probability Key Level to Watch SL TP Bearish Continuation 65% 149.500 - 150.000 150.500 148.350 - 148.000 Bullish Retracement 35% 148.350 - 148.000 147.800 150.000 - 151.000 📌 Conclusion: The market remains bearish unless a strong reversal structure forms. Best trade is to wait for a short entry around 149.500 - 150.000 and target 148.350 first. A bullish move is possible but needs confirmation. 🚀 ​
Short
by wizzywise1
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 4, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 16:15 EET. JPY - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks USDJPY: On Tuesday, the Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened for the second consecutive day, reaching a multi-month high against the US dollar (USD) last week. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish policy outlook continues to support the JPY, while concerns over the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump's tariff policy have led to a decrease in investor appetite for risky assets and contributed to the yen's strength. Trump's threats regarding Japan's currency depreciation, as well as the low dynamics of US dollar (USD) prices, are other factors exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. JPY bulls have not been affected by weak macroeconomic data from Japan, which showed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and a drop in corporate capital spending for the first time in three years. This suggests that the yen's value may continue to rise. Trade recommendation: SELL 149.000, SL 149.800, TP 148.200
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY BUY OUTLOOK We are buying USD/JPY at 150.5 because: - *Breakout above resistance*: The pair has broken above the 150.30 resistance level, which is a significant technical level. - *Rally expected*: When a pair breaks above a resistance level, it often triggers a rally, meaning the price is expected to go up. - *Buying opportunity*: By buying at 150.5, we are taking advantage of the potential rally and expecting the pair to continue going up. - *Targeting higher levels*: Our target is likely higher than 150.5, possibly around 151.45 or 152.00, as mentioned in the technical analysis. - *Potential for profit*: If the pair reaches our target, we can sell and make a profit. - We are buying USD/JPY at 150.5 - Our target is 151.7 This means we are expecting the pair to go up by about 120 pips (151.7 - 150.5) and reach our target. If it does, we can sell and make a profit. Overall, buying USD/JPY at 150.5 is a strategic move to take advantage of the potential rally and target higher levels for profit.
Long
by Expert_Travis
Don Chain Understanding where these levels are can help traders make better decisions about entry and exit points. If the price is approaching a strong resistance level, it might be a good opportunity to take profits or short sell, expecting the trend to reverse. Conversely, if the price approaches a support level, it might be a good buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce. Incorporating support and resistance effectively into your trading strategy requires careful analysis of the market conditions, considering other factors like market sentiment, upcoming economic events, and overall trends.
by dominicdrock
U.S. Dollar / Japanese YenHello and Respect to Dear Traders Last week, we received the necessary confirmations for the bullish trend of the Japanese yen chart, and we were waiting for the price to return to an optimal buying range. At this hour, I have obtained the essential confirmations, and we can utilize the 15-minute timeframe for optimal entry. Specifically, based on recent fundamental news, the Japanese government has announced that interest rates in the country will not change in the near future, which could help strengthen the yen and boost its price. Therefore, this presents a suitable opportunity to enter a long-term buy position on the daily timeframe. Keep in mind that this currency can be held until the main target. Important Points: Liquidity Daily: 156.755 IFC 4 H Candle: 157.617 & 158.136 And finally, our main target is 158.874. Thank you for your support. A very simple and clear chart has been drawn for your use. Wishing you all success! Fereydoon Bahrami A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex) Risk Disclosure: Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
Long
by fereydoon1199
2
USDJPY - at potential Buy SetupOANDA:USDJPY is nearing a significant support area that has reversed bearish trends into bullish momentum. This support level aligns with prior price reactions and represents a strong foundation for potential upward moves. If buyers confirm their presence with bullish price action, such as long lower wicks or bullish engulfing candles, I expect the price to go toward 151,100. Also, a break below this support could signal further bearish continuation. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management!
Long
by TrendDiva
14
USD/JPY testing THIS key resistance ahead of US dataAfter rising in the last three sessions, the USD/JPY was up again today, testing a key resistance area between 151.00 to 151.35. This is a massive resistance zone, having previously provided support. With Japanese yields on rise again, I wouldn't be surprised if the UJ were to resume lower from here. If so, watch for a possible bounce at 150.00. If 150.00 then gives way decisively, we could see a new low below the double bottom low of 148.65ish. The key risk to this bearish forecast if the upcoming US economic data today and later this week, with ISM Manufacturing PMI up next. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
3/3/25 [Short Term] Long On USDJPY As we can see on thhe 1 hour chart; the trend is switching from down trend to a up trend. We are looking forward to long in the 1 hour timeframe; We can also see that the IMPORTANT zone 150 has been tested mutliple time before broken up with powerful candles breaking through the 150 zone, Therefore we can look for possible set up to long the USDJPY @ 150 zone. The way I am seting it up is by; For example; If I am doing a 2% Risk per trade of my account I will place a "testing" trade (half of my risk 1%) at the 150zone which I have already done. Just to secure the entry. If @ 150 zone, the market is giving me a long confirmation candle such as (engulfin candle, pin bar or inside bar) I will enter another trade with the confirmation candle (1% as well). Therefore it will still be a full size trade of 2% risk of my account and a lowering the risk. My stoploss will be @149.768 My TP; I will always cut half of my position when it comes to 1:1RR and let the other half position goes as long as possible. Happy Green week~
Long
by TRDBB
USDJPY - Potential upside from here?USD/JPY is currently consolidating within a range after a sharp downtrend from the 159.00 level. The price has established support around 148.50-149.00, forming a clear pattern. We're now waiting for a decisive break above the current consolidation area, which would signal renewed bullish momentum. Once we see this breakout, expect a minor retracement to retest the broken resistance as new support – this will be our key buying opportunity. With the descending trendline already broken and the forecast indicating potential upside to the 154.00 area, traders should focus on buy positions following this retracement, with stops below the support zone.
Long
by financialflagship
USDJPY - Bullish Continuation in Play?OANDA:USDJPY currently trading within an ascending channel, indicating a prevailing bullish trend. The pair has broken above a key resistance zone and may now pull back for a retest. This area previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. If buyers confirm support at this level, the price is likely to move upward toward the 151.700 level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. Conversely, a failure to hold support could signal a potential bearish shift. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions. Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have! 🚀
Long
by DanieIM
1