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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Sellers become active.1. **Price tapped into the 143.700–143.800 resistance zone**, just as expected. 2. **Strong bearish reaction followed immediately** after testing that zone: * Long upper wick. * A strong bearish candle closed under the previous bullish body → **rejection confirmed** ✅ 3. Current candle is now **hovering around 143.600**, showing hesitation. * This is **normal** after the initial rejection, and could form the **right shoulder** of a micro top structure.
Short
by Milad_ansari
USDJPY Elliott Wave Forecast: Bearish Trend Set to ResumeThe USDJPY pair has exhibited a bearish sequence since its high on July 3, 2024, signaling potential for further downside. In the near term, the cycle from the May 13, 2025, high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure, a complex corrective pattern. From the May 13, 2025, peak, the initial decline, labeled wave ((a)), concluded at 144.91. It is then followed by a corrective bounce in wave ((b)) to 146.1. The subsequent drop, wave ((c)), completed at 142.10, finalizing the larger wave W, as illustrated on the 1-hour chart below. Following this, the pair entered a corrective phase, wave X, structured as a zigzag. From the wave W low, wave ((a)) advanced to 144.46 and wave ((b)) pulled back to 143.84. Wave ((c)) rallied to 146.28, completing wave X in the higher degree. This zigzag correction temporarily halted the bearish momentum. The pair has now turned lower, initiating wave Y, which is also unfolding as a zigzag structure with sub-waves ((a))-((b))-((c)). From the wave X high, wave (i) of ((a)) declined to 142.37, and the corrective wave (ii) of ((b)) reached 144.39. The pair is expected to continue lower in wave (iii) of ((a)). As long as the pivot high at 146.28 remains intact, any rally is likely to fail in a 3, 7, or 11 swing pattern, setting the stage for further declines. A break below the wave (i) low at 142.37 and the wave W low at 142.10 would reinforce the bearish sequence from the May 29 and May 13 peaks, respectively. Such a move would further confirm and validate the bearish outlook, strengthening the case for continued downside in the USDJPY pair.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Currency Risks in International Stock InvestmentCurrency Risks in International Stock Investment In the realm of international stock investment, understanding and managing currency risks is pivotal. This risk can substantially influence the returns on global investments, making it essential for investors to grasp its nuances and develop strategies to mitigate its impact. Today, we’ll delve into different types of currency risks, factors influencing these risks, and effective ways to manage them. Understanding Currency Risks Currency risks, sometimes known as foreign currency exchange risks, are inherent in international stock investment. This currency exposure risk arises when the value of a foreign currency fluctuates, affecting the position’s value when converted back to the domestic currency. To use an example of currency risk, consider an American investor who buys stocks in a European company. If the euro weakens against the US dollar, the value of these stocks in USD decreases, even if the stock's price in euros remains unchanged. It's crucial for investors to understand these risks, as they can significantly impact the returns on global investments. Effectively managing this exposure may help in protecting and potentially enhancing returns in a globally connected market. Types of Currency Risks Currency exposure in the context of global investments encompasses various types, each impacting assets differently. Understanding these is crucial for investors engaged in international trade or stock markets. Transaction Risk This arises from the fluctuation in exchange rates between the time a deal is made and when it's settled. For instance, a US investor purchasing shares in a Japanese company faces transaction risk if the Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar before the trade is completed. The investor would have to spend more dollars to buy the same amount of yen, illustrating currency exchange rate risk. Translation Risk This is relevant for investors holding foreign assets or stocks. It occurs when the value of these assets changes due to market fluctuations, affecting the domestic value of these assets. For example, a British investor holding stocks in a Canadian company will face translation risk if the Canadian dollar weakens against the British pound. Such a devaluation would reduce the value of the Canadian shares when converted back to pounds. Economic Risk This broader risk involves changes in currency value driven by macroeconomic shifts in a foreign market. A German company investing in Brazil may face economic risk if Brazil’s downturn leads to a devaluation in the Brazilian real. This would lower the returns on the position when converted back to euros. These aspects collectively define the currency risk in international trade and investment, highlighting the importance of managing exposure. Factors Influencing Risks Several factors contribute to risks in global investments, each playing a significant role in fluctuating prices. Exchange Rate Fluctuations Prices are primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market. Factors like trade balances, economic strength, and investor sentiment often cause exchange rates to vary, impacting investments denominated in that currency. Interest Rates Central banks' monetary policies, particularly interest rate adjustments, are a key driver. Higher interest rates in a country typically strengthen its currency by attracting foreign capital, seeking higher returns. Inflation Rates Generally, a country with lower inflation sees its currency appreciate as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies, affecting the return on investments in countries with differing inflation rates. Political Stability and Economic Performance Political events, government policies, and the overall economic environment of a country influence investor confidence. For instance, political instability or economic downturns may lead to a currency devaluation. Geopolitical Events Global events, such as conflicts, trade agreements, or sanctions, might create uncertainty in the market, leading to volatile market movements. Managing Currency Risks Effectively managing risks is crucial for investors involved in global markets. By understanding and employing various strategies, one can mitigate currency risk and protect potential returns from adverse price movements. Hedging Strategies - Forward Contracts: These are agreements to buy or sell a currency pair at a future date at a predetermined price. By locking in exchange rates and hedging foreign currency risk, investors can protect against potential unfavourable shifts in prices. For example, an investor fearing a devaluation of the euro against the dollar in the coming months may enter a forward contract to sell euros at today's value, mitigating the exposure to future devaluation. - Hedging through Inversely Correlated Assets: Investing in assets or securities that have an inverse relationship with the currency can also be a strategy. For instance, holding stocks that are likely to appreciate when the local currency depreciates might serve as a natural hedge. Diversification - Diversifying a portfolio across different currencies and geographic regions can dilute the impact of fluctuations. Holding a global mix of equities, bonds, and other assets may balance out losses in one region with gains in another. - Investing in multinational corporations that operate and generate revenue in multiple currencies can also be a form of diversification, as these companies are often less affected by price volatility in any single market. By employing these strategies, investors can mitigate the overall impact of price fluctuations on their international investments. However, it's important to note that while these methods might reduce exposure, they can also limit potential gains. The Bottom Line In conclusion, astutely managing these risks is fundamental for success in global stock investment. By understanding the types, factors, and strategies to mitigate this exposure, investors can navigate global markets more effectively. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USD/JPY Higher-Low, 142.50 DefenseUSD/JPY continues to exert force on the USD and the past week was no different. Despite an open door for sellers, a higher-low showed with a hold of the same 142.50 support level that was in-play a week prior. That price traded early on Tuesday (Monday night in the states) and then on Thursday (Wed night in the U.S.) buyers came in to hold the low just above that price, illustrating a degree of bullish anticipation. Reports of slowing pace of bond tapering from the BoJ, and perhaps even smaller reductions to the banks bond buying helped to soften long-term Japanese yields: 40 year JGBs made a move towards the 3% marker after skyrocketing up to 3.7% just a few weeks ago. That helped JPY-weakness to continue against the USD and USD/JPY is back to re-testing the 145.00 handle in the pair. This remains a key component if a USD turn is nearby, but interestingly working with that turn may be more attractive against the Euro in a pair like EUR/USD as USD/JPY has continued to show traps on both sides of the market for much of 2025 trade. - js
by FOREXcom
Buying Yen against the DollarI first mentioned briefly about this pair here and safety assets here which I got it right in the rough direction. I have been stopped out several times for this volatile pair but the losses taught me something. If we look at this line chart closely, we can see that it took only 2 months from July 2024 to Sept 2024 to fall from a peak of 161 to 140. If you missed this opportunity, the second time was 158 on 8 Jan 2025 and fell to 140 on 22 Apr 2025 (3 months). The green bullish trend line is KEY , if the price action fails to hold above this line, then there are several profit targets for you as shown on chart. Since I have not shorted at the peak of 161 or 158 , then looking back on hindsight serves no benefits but the fall from current price to 127 is equally rewarding. I will be shorting in tranches of 1 - 3 contracts to capture my winners instead of taking profits at those levels and shorting at lower price each time and get stopped out due to retracement. Price action will not move in a linear fashion like the arrows I drew (fat hope, haha). So , do adjust your SL slightly wider and manage your own risk capital. Again, this is a much volatile pair and may not suit those with lower risk tolerance. Trade what you can afford to lose.
Short
by dchua1969
USD/JPY Falls to Near 144.20 Amid Dollar Weakness The USD/JPY currency pair has reversed its early gains and is trading near 144.20 during Wednesday’s European session. This pullback comes as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to maintain the momentum of Tuesday's recovery. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, has retreated from its intraday high of 99.85 and is stabilizing around 99.50, signaling a lack of bullish follow-through. Key Drivers: Weaker USD sentiment is weighing on the pair, likely influenced by a shift in US Treasury yields or expectations regarding future Fed rate moves. A stronger Japanese Yen could also be at play, potentially supported by safe-haven demand or policy signals from the Bank of Japan. Technical Perspective: If USD/JPY continues to decline, the next support level might be found near 144.00, followed by 143.50. On the upside, resistance is seen near 145.00, a psychological and technical barrier.
by Blueberry
Market next move Disruption of the Current Analysis: 1. False Breakout Risk: The price is consolidating under a clearly marked resistance, but there’s no confirmation of a breakout yet. The bullish arrows (prediction path) assume a breakout without waiting for a confirmed close above resistance, which is premature. 2. Low Momentum Candles: The recent candles are small-bodied with wicks on both sides — signs of indecision. No strong bullish momentum candle exists to support the projection. 3. Volume Mismatch: Volume spiked recently, but the candle was red — this could indicate supply absorption or selling into strength, not accumulation. A bullish scenario would require increasing volume on green candles breaking resistance. 4. Bearish Trend Context Ignored: The chart shows a clear preceding downtrend, and what follows could simply be a bearish flag or dead cat bounce. Marking this as the beginning of a bullish reversal overlooks the overall bearish context.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
1
June 4th Update Reports: ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) This is a monthly report by the institute for Supply Management (ISM) Basically, provides a look into economic health of the U.S services sector, which includes industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and professional services. The four key subcomponents are Business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. We are looking for a score over 50 which represents expansion in the services sector, and you guessed it below 50 indicates contraction. The last report was 51.6 up from 50.8 in March that shows modest expansion in services sector. How does it relate to USD/JPY: This significantly influences this currency pair due to it being a leading indicator of U.S. economic health A score above 51.6 would show more expansion the forecast is currently 52 there is a possibility this could make the dollar more attractive to investors compared to yen and increase price. Why? If yields on U.S. Treasuries increase, it could make the dollar more attractive to investors compared to yen A score above 50 but lower than 51.6 concerns me Targets: Buy: 144.780 (open and close above) Sell: 143.655 (open and close below) If you took the call from yesterday and are still in trade, be sure to protect your position anything can happen, and we want to lock in profits.
by OrangeSodaOfficial
2
USDJPY MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. 🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair . 💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Short
by okako_trading
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 141.94 1st Support: 140.24 1st Resistance: 148.56 ,Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY) Bullish reversal analysis Read The ChaptianMr SMC Trading point update Technical analysis for the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here's a detailed breakdown of the idea and strategy: --- Key Components of the Chart: 1. Strong Support Zone: The yellow zone is labeled as a “big support level of pullback”, around the 142.00 – 141.20 range. Price has historically bounced from this zone, suggesting demand and buyer interest. 2. Bullish Structure Setup: Price is forming a double bottom or potential reversal pattern in the support zone. A downtrend line is clearly marked, and a break above this trendline would signal bullish continuation. 3. EMA 200 (at 145.020): The EMA is currently acting as dynamic resistance. A breakout above the EMA would confirm further bullish momentum. 4. RSI Indicator: RSI is currently below 30, indicating the market is oversold – a common precursor to a bullish reversal. 5. Target Levels: Target 1: 145.803 – likely the first resistance level or EMA retest. Target 2: 148.587 – a prior high and strong resistance area. 6. Projection: Price is expected to bounce from support, break the trendline, retest, and then rally to higher levels. --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish Entry Zone: Near 142.00 – 141.20 (support zone) Confirmation: Break above the descending trendline + bullish RSI divergence Targets: TP1: 145.803 TP2: 148.587 Invalidation: Break and close below 141.00 (support zone broken) Mr SMC Trading point --- Risk Management Suggestion: Use a tight stop-loss below the support zone, considering it's the key reversal area. Also, keep an eye on fundamental factors such as U.S. and Japan interest rate decisions or key economic events (indicated by the icons on the chart). Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
10
USDJPY Ready to Bounce – Sniper Long from Smart Money OBUSDJPY | 30-Min Bullish Setup – Premium to Discount + Order Block Reaction USDJPY looks primed for a bullish reversal from a smart money perspective. Let’s walk through why this setup could be the cleanest long of the week 📈🧠 📌 1. Current Market Narrative: Price retraced deep into discount levels (beyond 70.5%) after a strong bullish leg Tapped into a refined bullish Order Block (OB) sitting just above a strong low Multiple liquidity grabs have already occurred, leaving internal structure vulnerable to a reversal Smart money has likely accumulated below recent lows… ready to pump toward Buy Side Liquidity 🧲 🧠 2. Key Technical Levels: ✅ Order Block Zone (Entry): 143.164 🔻 Strong Low: 142.048 (protected) 🟢 Buy Side Liquidity Target: 144.447 🔼 Weak High (Magnet): 146.290 Entry Point: Within OB (143.1–143.2) TP Zones: 144.447 (main), 146.290 (stretch target) SL: Below OB – around 142.048 RR: ~1:4+ — sniper grade 🥷 📊 3. Smart Money Flow: OB aligned with 70.5–79% Fibonacci discount zone (deep retrace = strong reaction) Structure shows signs of exhaustion on the sell side Price may now reverse with displacement toward upside inefficiencies Buyers likely stepping in aggressively from this level 🚀 4. Execution Plan (LTF Confirmation Entry): ✅ Wait for: M5–M15 BOS (bullish break of structure) FVG or mitigation entry confirmation Maintain tight SL below OB (2–3 pips buffer) Bonus: If price holds above 143.2 with strong M5 bullish candle close, that’s go-time for smart money longs. 🧨 5. Why This Setup is 🔥: High probability bounce zone (OB + deep fib retrace) Clean RR structure with solid target at buy side liquidity Market structure shift likely as lower highs start breaking Liquidity swept under recent lows = trap complete This is the kind of setup that institutional algos are coded to exploit 🤖 💬 Type “USDJPY Long Sniper 🥷💴” in the comments if you’re in this setup too 🔁 Save this for trade journaling or future backtest 📊 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for smart money plays every day!
Long
by ChartNinjas88
USDJPY – Supply Zone Rejection Incoming?June 6, 2025 | Short-Term Bias: Bearish USDJPY is currently trading around 144.16, testing a key supply zone between 144.25 – 144.45. This area has historically acted as a strong resistance, and we’re now seeing signs of exhaustion after a solid bullish run from the 142.90 demand zone. 🔍 Technical Highlights: Price is inside a high-probability supply zone, with clear historical rejection at this level. A strong bearish risk-reward setup is in play, with the target at 142.90 and a stop above 144.456. The volume profile shows high activity around 144.00–144.25, hinting at possible consolidation or distribution. Previous structure confirms this level has served as a seller’s stronghold. 📉 Bias: Leaning bearish as long as price remains below 144.456. A break and close above that level would invalidate this setup and shift the bias to bullish, targeting the 145.00+ area. 📌 Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice): Entry: Current level (~144.16) SL: Above 144.456 TP: 142.90 Let’s see if sellers step in again here, or if bulls are ready to break through. ⚔️ Drop your thoughts below! 👇
Short
by PIPSPHERE_NETWORK
USDJPY Analysis – Yield Support Signals Potential UpsideUSDJPY is currently sitting at a key support zone around 142.80–143.00, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. This support area has previously acted as a strong launchpad for price rallies. 🟢 Technical Setup: Price action has formed a clean higher low structure, bouncing off horizontal support. The US10Y Treasury Yield (pink line) has rebounded sharply and is diverging to the upside — a leading indicator for USDJPY strength. The Fib retracement from the last swing move aligns well with the 0% zone, suggesting the dip might be complete. A bullish reaction from here targets the 148.50 zone, with intermediate resistance around 145.00–146.00. 🟠 Risk Levels: Invalidated below 141.40 (structure break). Stops could be placed below 142.00, targeting a 2:1 or better risk-reward ratio. 🔍 Macro-Fundamental Insight: U.S. Yields are firming despite mixed Fed signals — this gives strength to USD, especially against low-yielders like the JPY. BOJ remains dovish with no urgency to normalize rates, keeping the yen weak. With risk appetite improving and bond yields lifting, carry trade dynamics favor USDJPY upside. ✅ Conclusion: As long as US10Y yields remain firm and USD holds above 142.00, USDJPY has a strong probability of rallying toward 148.50. Look for confirmation with higher highs on the 4H chart and continued divergence between yield and price.
Long
by ultreosforex
30
Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support, a pullback level. Pivot: 144.37 1st Support: 141.94 1st Resistance: 146.17 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets