USD/JPY rally facing fundamental test with US job openings data USD/JPY remains a play on the US interest rate outlook, sitting with an incredibly strong correlation with US two-year Treasury note futures of -0.98 over the past fortnight. When short-dated US debt futures have moved in a particular direction, USD/JPY has almost always done the opposite, mirroring US Treasury yields.
With there's no obvious reversal pattern in US two-year note futures in the right-hand chart, providing reason to be cautious about getting to aggressive, with the first of the week’s major US economic releases on the way in the form of JOLTs job openings for September, the risk of profit-taking in USD/JPY appears elevated.
After a surprise bounce in August, markets are looking for only a minor decline in openings of 50,000 to 7.99 million. Notably, this survey tends to bounce around and we haven’t seen back-to-back increases since late 2022. That hints at the potential for a downside surprise that could spark downside for US Treasury yields and USD/JPY which have run very hard in recent weeks.
If the price holds below 153.19, you could initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection targeting a return to the 200DMA.
Good luck!
DS
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY LongFollowing the path indicated by blue uptrend zigzag, we can clearly see that FX:USDJPY is moving upwards with targets on previous high.
USDJPY H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 152.60, which is a pullback resistance
Our take profit will be at 150.88, a pullback support level close to 61.8& Fibo retracement and 127.2% Fibo extension
The stop loss will be at 154.64, above the 127.2% Fibo extension
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDJPY Is Bouncing Toward The NWOGLike many other currency pairs on the US dollar, USDJPY also opened with a downgap this week. This was still not closed and turned out to be a break-away gap with further price losses. The upcoming decision in the race for the US presidency is likely to be accompanied by high volatility. We expect USDJPY to close its gap soon. This assumption is also based on the fact that the price reacted with a bounce after reaching a Fibonacci retracement at 151.36.
DeGRAM | USDJPY testing the channelUSDJPY is between the trend lines near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
The price has already reached the lower trend line and support level.
The chart has broken the descending structure.
We expect a bounce from the channel boundary.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
USDJPY: Ready for another 1500 pip move? Presidential election in the US, which was one of the most important political events this year, moved the stock market to significant highs, historically speaking. The new rally could weaken the dollar. On the Japanese side of things, the new bullish move might be starting soon. Now that we got the retracement back to our weekly area of interest, its time to start looking for short entries. Our area of interest consists of Fibonacci and VWAP levels.
This analysis is taught and provided by Fractals Trading.
Trade safely and expect the unexpected,
Mei
145.00 in the sights on USDJPYIntraday Update: The USDJPY continues to move higher post election night as the 154.75 level is the 161% extension of the Aug 15ht highs to Sept 12th lows. RSI is divergent, but with yields moving/breaking higher today its hard to see it stop short of 145.00.
USD/JPY surges as Trump storms to victoryThe US dollar is on a tear against the major currencies after Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in the US presidential election. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.62, up a massive 2.0% on the day.
There are still plenty of votes to count in the US election but it looking increasingly likely that Republican Donald Trump has been re-elected as President. Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris were in a dead heat going into the election on Tuesday and there was concern that declaring a winner could take days or even weeks, which would have led to prolonged uncertainty.
In what was a huge surprise to both sides, Trump cruised to victory. The win is even sweeter for the Republicans as they likely have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. With the Republicans in charge, Trump’s agenda will be easier to push through Congress. It should be noted that at the time of writing, the vote count is incomplete and Harris has not conceded defeat.
The US dollar has responded to the Trump win with sharp gains and the yen is in full retreat. Trump’s threats to slap stiff tariffs on China, Europe and Mexico would support the dollar, as tariffs would raise inflation and interest rates. If Trump’s policies lead to trade wars, market sentiment will fall, further boosting the dollar.
The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its September meeting today. At the meeting, the BoJ kept rates at 0.25% and Governor Ueda said that BoJ would not rush to raise rates during market volatility. Those comments were a response to a stock market slide after weak US employment reports raised fears that the US economy was deteriorating much more quickly than expected. Those fears were unfounded and the markets don’t expect a BoJ rate hike before early 2025, although if the weak yen takes a dive, it could accelerate plans to raise rates.
USD/JPY has pushed past resistance at 151.86, 152.87 and 153.84. The next resistance line is 153.95
150.78 and 149.77 are providing support
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Retracement Amid USD StrengthUSDJPY recently broke out of a descending channel and surged to 153.77, but is now showing signs of a potential pullback. The price action suggests a possible retracement towards the highlighted support zone around 153.20 - 152.50.
This movement is also influenced by the recent strength of the USD, driven by positive economic data and Federal Reserve signals on potential rate hikes. If this support holds, we may see a bounce back towards the recent highs, offering a buying opportunity
USD/JPY Rate High: Yen Under Pressure from Strong USDCurrently, USD/JPY is rising as the U.S. dollar strengthens on expectations that Trump’s policies could impact Federal Reserve interest rates, driving the pair above 150.
In the short term, USD/JPY may stay elevated, though long-term trends will depend on Fed rate decisions and the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) response. While BOJ maintains its loose monetary stance, the Fed’s potential for high rates to control inflation continues to support the USD/JPY pair. However, if the Fed signals rate cuts or BOJ shifts its policy, USD/JPY may decline.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 152.38
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 151.57
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 153.76
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY Next possible moveWe are waiting for our asset to reach our action zone, and based on the reaction, we’ll decide on our next moves.ALWAYS WAIT FOR A CONFIRMATION TO SEE IF THE PRICE VALIDATES THE ZONE.
USDJPY - Analysis My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure.
We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower).
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Major USDJPY Directional Analysis Post ElectionThe drift back to recent highs has been propelled by USD strength as election results come in.
Lack of BOJ impetus for falls still exists.
Short side bias can be taken, would not be surprised if price gets slightly higher.
USD/JPY Price AnalysisIn this analysis, we examine the USD/JPY currency pair, focusing on the recent price movements and technical indicators. The chart highlights a significant downward trend, followed by a potential upward reversal, as indicated by the arrows.
Technical Analysis:
Downward Movement: The first arrow points to a sharp decline from the recent highs, suggesting a bearish trend. This movement aligns with increased selling pressure and bearish market sentiment.
Support Levels: The price is expected to find initial support around the 147.00 level. This area has historically acted as a strong support, and a bounce from this level could indicate a temporary reversal.
Further Decline: The second arrow suggests a further decline to the 142.00 level if the 147.00 support fails. This indicates a more extended bearish outlook.
Potential Reversal: After hitting the 142.00 level, there is potential for an upward reversal, depending on market conditions and buying interest at this lower support level.
Price Expectations: Based on the current technical setup, we anticipate the USD/JPY to test the 147.00 support level initially. If this level holds, a short-term bounce towards 148.50 is possible. However, if the support at 147.00 breaks, we expect further declines towards 142.00. A recovery from 142.00 could then lead to a rebound.
Trading Strategy:
Short Positions: Consider short positions if the price breaks below 147.00, targeting 142.00 as the next support.
Long Positions: If the price finds support at 142.00 and shows signs of reversal, long positions could be considered with a target of 147.00 or higher.
In conclusion, the USD/JPY chart suggests a bearish outlook with potential for a significant decline followed by a possible recovery. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and adjust their strategies accordingly.
USDJPY Analysis: Buy to win ? The USDJPY pair is showing a bullish structure, with prices currently around 152.29. The chart indicates a recent rally, but price action now suggests a potential pullback before resuming the uptrend. The immediate support zone lies around the 149.41 - 149.56 area, which could act as a solid base for a bounce.
The technical setup indicates that, after a pullback to this support level, USDJPY could rally towards the next significant resistance target at 158.64. The moving averages are also aligned in favor of the bulls, providing additional confirmation of upward momentum in the medium term.
Traders might consider waiting for the price to test the support zone before entering long positions, aiming for the 158.64 target. This pullback could present a good buying opportunity, aligning with the overall bullish trend.
BUY USDJPYUSDJPY quickly retreated from the resistance at 153.00 with a market open gap. now price approaches support at 151.300. We can look for buy opportunities into 153.12 and beyond.
@JoeChampion
Major Decline in Yen /$US Head n should targets 131/128 The chart posted is the Next shoe to drop Liquidity and Assets to decline
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid !!USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fundamental Shifts 08/11/2024
Introduction
In today's analysis of USDJPY, the pair appears to carry a slight bearish bias, driven by significant macroeconomic factors. These include recent economic data from Japan, U.S. dollar movements, and evolving global risk sentiment. In this article, we’ll explore the critical factors affecting USDJPY today, helping you stay ahead in your trading decisions.
---
Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today
1. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Stance
The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, but recent statements hint at a gradual shift if inflation stabilizes around target levels. Markets are speculating on potential policy adjustments, increasing support for the Japanese yen (JPY). Any tightening signals from the BoJ would strengthen the JPY, adding bearish pressure to USDJPY.
2. U.S. Federal Reserve’s Caution on Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve’s recent statements show a cautious stance on further interest rate hikes due to mixed economic data and inflation uncertainties. This dovish outlook has weakened the U.S. dollar (USD) across major currency pairs. A softer USD supports a bearish bias for USDJPY, especially as U.S. bond yields decline, making the JPY more appealing.
3. Global Risk Sentiment Impacting Safe-Haven Flows
The JPY is considered a safe-haven currency and often gains during periods of market uncertainty. With mixed global economic indicators and recent geopolitical tensions, investors may lean towards the JPY, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish potential.
4. Technical Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias
USDJPY recently tested key resistance levels and failed to break higher, adding to the bearish sentiment. The pair is also trading close to its 50-day moving average, a significant level that, if broken, could signal further downward movement.
---
Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook
Moving Averages and RSI
USDJPY is hovering near its 50-day moving average, a critical support level. A sustained break below this line may confirm a bearish trend. Additionally, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing early signs of downward momentum, signaling potential selling pressure ahead.
MACD and Volume Analysis
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is showing bearish divergence, reinforcing the expectation of a bearish trend for USDJPY. Volume analysis also shows a decline in buying pressure, aligning with the anticipated downward movement.
---
Conclusion
The combination of a cautious Fed, potential policy changes from the BoJ, and current risk sentiment suggests a slight bearish bias for USDJPY today. Traders should keep an eye on key technical levels and monitor any news impacting the USD and JPY for further confirmation.
---
SEO Tags:
- #USDJPYforecast
- #USDJPYanalysis
- #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis
- #ForexTradingUSDJPY
- #JapaneseYenOutlook
- #USDJPYtoday
- #USDJPYnews
- #ForexMarketAnalysis
- #USDJPYprediction
USDJPY BUY SETUP !! “The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.” – Ed Seykota
USD_JPY GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅USD_JPY made a bullish
Rebound from the horizontal
Support of 152.000 while trading
In an uptrend so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further move up
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
