USDJPY M15 I Bullish Bounce Based on the M15 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 142.69, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 143.31, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 142.53, a pullback support.
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USDJPY trade ideas
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 141.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 144.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.25 fibonacci retracement.
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Risk, Rates, and Reversals: What’s Next for USD/JPY?CMCMARKETS:USDJPY FX:USDJPY USD/JPY rebounded slightly to 143.10 but remains under pressure after slipping from the 144.50 on BoJ-Fed divergence and rising geopolitical tensions. While the BoJ appears cautious about accelerating its balance sheet tapering beyond FY2026, it still signals further rate hikes amid persistent domestic inflation, offering the yen structural support.
Technically, price is reacting off the lower trendline TL2, aligned with the 142.30–142.40 significant support zone. This area has held multiple times in the past and may offer a bullish pullback toward the 143.80 or even 146.15 resistance zones. However, failure to break above these levels could expose USD/JPY to renewed downside toward the 140.89 demand base.
Short-term recovery depends on Friday’s NFP and risk sentiment around trade tensions. A break below 142.30 would invalidate the bullish rebound and open downside to support near 140.89.
Resistance : 143.87 , 146.14
Support : 142.36 , 140.89
Short I opened a short position yesterday at the price of 147.50.
Currently the price is 146.18. The price has dropped quite a bit but I think it still has a good short entry opportunity with a reasonable risk reward.
Reasons for short trade:
The price has reached the major support level around 149 on the 22nd April. Since then, the price has moved up to the fair value gap area between 149.2 and 148.2 (blue rectangular box), and also the order block.
That area is also the Fib 0786 area. I look at Fib 0.786 as the last line of defence and it is usually a hard line to break.
The price hit the area and started to move to the downside. Momentum indicators are still in the bull territory but the lines have crossed and clearly moving to the downside.
My macro bias for USD is bearish and the current price set up support my bias. The risk reward is good enough for me to enter.
My trade set up:
Entry: 147.51Stop: 148.95Target: 142.478 (Fib 0.236)
Risk:Reward= 1:3.5
Currently the price is 146.17. It just broked below Fib 0.618. Entry now can give you 1:1.5 risk reward.
YEN/$USA topped in the target 144/146 and now supported into fibThe chart posted is the USA $/YEN chart it is key to all things as to the sp 500 and debt markets A few weeks back I posted The chart of a MASSIVE HEAD N SHOULDER TOP formation !!! we are still forming the Right shoulder in a rather complex wave STRUCTURE This is the hourly model and forecast so far spot on . best of trades WAVETIMER
USDJPY I Trading Plan and Forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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A rebound is inevitable. Execute!During the European session, the USD/JPY price trended lower overall, with prices gradually declining from higher levels, indicating that bearish forces remained dominant. The pair started its downward movement from near 144.049 and continued to move lower. Notably, the USD/JPY exchange rate faced resistance at the 146.00 psychological level and is currently moving toward the support zone at 142.35. If prices reach this area, buyers are expected to enter the market after setting clear risk parameters below the support level, preparing for a potential rebound toward the 148.00 resistance level. On the flip side, sellers will look for prices to break below this level to increase bearish bets, with a further downside target set at the 140.00 threshold.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
buy@142.20-142.50
TP:145.50-146.00
USD/JPY Technical OutlookA Head and Shoulders pattern has formed on the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting a potential bearish reversal. The key neckline zone lies between 142.400 and 142.000 .
A confirmed break below this neckline, followed by a clean retest, would present a high-probability short opportunity. This pattern indicates a possible shift in momentum, with sellers beginning to gain control of the market.
Monday thoughts and reports Our initial trade of the week was a success no drawback. The currency pair has created a new level and is now in a testing zone that I view as either a possible reversal or continuation of a downtrend validated by the 4 hour and daily timeframes. My points of interaction.
Sell: Open and close below 142.579
Buy: Reversal at 142.579
Even though these are the points I'm interested keep in mind it is early in the week and there is a chance for consolidation so beware of overtrading.
Monday June 2nd Reports: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
For May of 2025 it reported at about 48.7% which indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Aprils was 49% So we are looking at a slower pace. The current prediction is 49.5%. This is the ninth consecutive month with the index below 50% which is below the neutral threshold of 50%.
New Orders decreased to 48.6% from 55.1%
Production: Slowed to 50.7% from 52.5%
Employment: Fell into contraction at 47.6% down from 50.3%
Prices: Accelerated to 62.4% the highest since June 2022, due to increased cost from tariffs
Supplier Deliveries: Slowed to 54.5% from 50.9%, indicating longer lead times
Inventories: Remained stable at 49.9%
Backlog of Orders: Contracted less at 46.8% compared to 44.9% (backlogs are still declining, but not as sharply)
The manufacturing sector is experiencing the initial operational impacts of the new administrations tariff policies, leading to increased prices and supply chain disruptions
How does this impact USD/JPY?
PMI below 50 signals economic weakness it signals contraction in the manufacturing sector.
This puts a cloud over the confidence in US economic strength and may lead traders to lower expectations for future fed rate hikes (or even expect cuts)
A lower PMI reduces investor confidence in US economy which cloud lead to a weaker dollar
This will result in a stronger yen (safe haven currency) against the us dollar
Pay attention to: Fed and BOJ monetary policy outlooks, geopolitical risk appetite, interest rate differentials, and upcoming US jobs data report
USD/JPY – Rejection at Resistance | Bullish Setup Brewing? The USD/JPY pair has just rejected from the 143.50 zone and is currently sitting around 142.89, showing signs of short-term weakness after a bullish attempt. However, the higher timeframe demand zone between 140.55 – 142.00 is holding strong 👀
🔍 Key Levels:
Demand Zone: 140.550 – 142.000 🟧
Mid-Range Resistance: 148.419 🔵
Major Supply Zone: 155.589 🔵
Current Price: 142.896 🔴
📊 Technical Breakdown:
Price bounced multiple times from the strong demand zone, forming a potential triple bottom.
If bulls defend this area again, we could see a push toward 148.41 and eventually a retest of the 155.58 supply zone 🔼
Momentum is gradually shifting – watch for a break above recent highs (~143.50) for confirmation of bullish continuation.
🧠 What to Watch:
Bullish confirmation above 143.50 = Long potential toward 148.41 and 155.58 🎯
Bearish breakdown below 140.55 = Caution! Opens downside risk 🚨
💬 Your Turn:
How are you trading USD/JPY this week?
Do you expect a breakout or another bounce from this demand zone?
📌 Drop your analysis or setups below! Let's trade smarter together.
#USDJPY #Forex #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #FXTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #4HChart #TradingView #JPY
Market next move 🔄 Disruptive Bullish Scenario Analysis
1. Oversold Conditions & Possible Reversal
The current price at 143.028 shows an aggressive drop.
This could indicate the pair is entering oversold territory on lower timeframes (not visible here but common post-drop).
If confirmed with RSI or stochastic indicators, a reversal or retracement could be imminent before reaching the 141.000 target.
2. Demand Zone at 142.500–142.000
Historically, this area (near 142.5–142.0) may act as a support zone.
Buyers could step in here, especially if fundamentals (e.g., U.S. data releases or BOJ comments) support dollar strength.
3. Volume Divergence
Declining selling volume despite price falling (visible from lower red bars) may hint at weakening bearish momentum.
This divergence often precedes a bullish correction or range formation.
4. False Breakdown Possibility
The sharp projection to 141.000 could trigger stop hunts.
After trapping breakout sellers, price may sharply rebound to retest 143.500–144.000 zones.
USDJPY Forecast for NFP Week | Price at a Critical Turning PointIn this video, I’m diving into the USDJPY setup ahead of a high-impact week filled with major economic news like the NFP, ADP Employment, and speeches from the BoJ Governor.
We’ll walk through the technical zones I’m watching, discuss potential buyer and seller reactions, and outline the key catalysts that could move the market.
🔔 Don’t forget to like the video in support of my work.
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
#USDJPY #ForexForecast #NFPWeek #ForexMentor #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrading #BoJ #TradeSetups #PriceAction #MarketBreakdown
USDJPY Short: On the Wave 3 Train RideOver in this video, I go through in detail the breakdown of the Elliott Waves and the rationale for counting the waves as I did. In this video, i talk about setting the stop at around 144.10 and the short-term take profit target at around 139.92.
At the end, I remind us of the big picture head-and-shoulders where the longer-term target is around 127.21.
Thank you and Good Luck in your Trading!