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USD/JPY : First Long, Then SHORT ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after a sharp decline, the price created a large liquidity gap, which has just been filled at the moment. Currently, the price is trading around the 145.660 level, and after an initial bullish move, I’m expecting a further correction. So, first a LONG position, then a SHORT! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
Taking a look at Fibonacci in Technical AnalysisIn the world of technical analysis, traders are always searching for tools that provide an edge in the markets. One such tool, which has stood the test of time, is Fibonacci retracement. Derived from a series of numbers discovered by the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century, the Fibonacci sequence has been applied to various fields, from nature to finance, and plays a significant role in predicting market movements. This blog will explore how Fibonacci retracement works, why it’s relevant for traders, and how you can incorporate it into your trading strategy for better results. ________________________________________ What is Fibonacci? The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting with 0 and 1. So, the sequence looks like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and so on. The magic of Fibonacci for traders lies in the ratios derived from this sequence, which are commonly referred to as the "Golden Ratios." The most important Fibonacci ratios used in technical analysis are: • 61.8% (also known as the Golden Ratio) • 38.2% • 23.6% These ratios are used to identify potential levels of support and resistance in the price of a financial asset. Fibonacci Retracement in Trading Fibonacci retracement is a popular technical analysis tool used to find potential levels where price pullbacks or reversals might occur. The idea is simple: when a market moves sharply in one direction, it’s likely to retrace part of that move before continuing in the same direction. Key Levels in Fibonacci Retracement: • 61.8%: Often regarded as the "golden retracement level," this ratio is believed to be the strongest predictor of price reversal points. • 50%: Although not an official Fibonacci ratio, traders frequently use this level to gauge whether the trend will resume or reverse. • 38.2% and 23.6%: These levels represent smaller pullbacks and often signal short-term corrections. By plotting these levels on a price chart, traders can get a better sense of where the price might pause, reverse, or find support/resistance. How to Use Fibonacci Retracement in Your Trading Strategy Let’s break down how Fibonacci retracement works in practice. Step 1: Identifying a Trend The first step in using Fibonacci retracement is identifying a strong upward or downward trend. This could be a swing high to swing low (in an uptrend) or a swing low to swing high (in a downtrend). The trend is essential because Fibonacci retracement levels are applied to find where pullbacks might occur during this trend. Step 2: Plotting Fibonacci Levels Once you’ve identified the trend, plot the Fibonacci retracement levels using the highest and lowest points of the move. Most charting platforms, have built-in Fibonacci tools to help with this. For example, in an uptrend, select the lowest point (swing low) and drag the tool to the highest point (swing high). The software will automatically calculate and plot the key Fibonacci levels: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. Step 3: Analysing the Price Action Now that the Fibonacci levels are in place, watch how the price interacts with these levels. If the price retraces to 38.2% or 61.8%, it might find support and continue moving in the direction of the trend. Traders often look for other confirmation signals (such as candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or moving averages) at these levels before making a trade. Using Fibonacci in Conjunction with Other Indicators While Fibonacci retracement is a powerful tool on its own, its effectiveness increases when combined with other technical analysis tools. Here are some common pairings: • Moving Averages: A bounce off a Fibonacci level that coincides with a key moving average (like the 50-day or 200-day MA) is often seen as a strong buy or sell signal. • Trendlines: If a Fibonacci retracement level aligns with a major trendline, this increases the likelihood of the level acting as strong support or resistance. • Candlestick Patterns: Reversal patterns like Doji, Hammer, or Engulfing candles at a Fibonacci retracement level can provide additional confirmation for your trade setup. • RSI/Other Oscillators: Overbought or oversold conditions shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around a Fibonacci level can signal potential price reversals. On the USD/JPY weekly chart we have an engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI at the 61.8% which adds weight to the idea that the market was likely to hold in this vicinity and recover. Conclusion: Fibonacci as a Core Tool in Your Trading Arsenal Fibonacci retracement is a versatile and widely trusted tool that can help traders identify potential price reversal levels. By understanding how to apply Fibonacci ratios and combining them with other technical indicators, you can improve your chances of success in the markets. Remember, no tool is perfect, and using Fibonacci retracement effectively requires practice and confirmation. Incorporate it into a broader trading strategy, and you’ll be able to make more informed and profitable trading decisions. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Education
by The_STA
USDJPY / UNDER BULLISH PRESSUE / 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS after breakout from a channel, leading to a price increase of 1.82%. The breakout signals potential for further upward movement. The price is expected to retest a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is a technical term in trading that represents an area on the chart where price moved quickly, leaving little to no volume. The specified FVG zone is between 145.303 and 144.367. A retest of this area could indicate the market finding support here. If the price remains above this FVG area and stabilizes, there is an expectation of further increases, potentially reaching the supply zone between 147.602 and 149.360. This suggests that the supply zone is where there could be selling pressure. A break above the supply zone would indicate even more upside potential for prices. On the downside, if the price closes a 4-hour candle below the FVG area, the expectation is for prices to decline. This could lead the price to a demand zone between 142.672 and 141.736, suggesting buying interest might come in at this level. Supply Zone : 147.602 and 149.360. Demand Zone : 142.672 and 141.736. FVG : 145.303 and 144.367.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY Analysis for 03/10/2024: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish.As of October 3, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is exhibiting signs of a slightly bullish bias. Several fundamental factors and market conditions are aligning to support this outlook. Traders focusing on USDJPY today should be aware of key drivers influencing this potential movement. Key Drivers for USDJPY Bullish Bias 1. US Dollar Strength - The U.S. dollar is maintaining its strength amid ongoing Federal Reserve hawkishness. Recent speeches from Fed officials have reinforced the possibility of additional interest rate hikes, which supports the USD. Higher U.S. interest rates typically attract foreign investment, leading to increased demand for the dollar. - Today, expectations of economic resilience in the U.S. are high, with upcoming non-farm payrolls and inflation data later in the week likely to cement this bullish outlook. 2. Divergence in Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve’s stance is increasingly at odds with the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which remains committed to ultra-loose monetary policies. The BoJ continues to support its yield curve control program, making the yen less attractive for investors. As the U.S. tightens, the BoJ’s dovish position could lead to further depreciation of the yen, supporting a bullish USDJPY trend. - Today’s market sentiment reflects this divergence, as traders expect the BoJ to stay accommodative while the U.S. dollar benefits from higher yields. 3. Treasury Yields on the Rise - U.S. Treasury yields, especially the 10-year note, have been climbing. Higher yields are a crucial indicator of rising demand for the dollar. As bond yields rise, so does the attractiveness of U.S. assets, drawing capital away from yen-denominated assets. - With Treasury yields set to increase, USDJPY is likely to follow a bullish trajectory today, as investors seek better returns from U.S. bonds. 4. Risk-On Sentiment - Today’s global risk sentiment is relatively optimistic, which traditionally favors higher-yielding currencies like the USD over the safe-haven yen. Equity markets have seen gains, and positive sentiment around U.S. economic data could continue to support risk-on trades, driving USDJPY higher. Technical Factors Supporting Bullish Bias - Support and Resistance Levels: Currently, USDJPY is trading near key support levels around 149.00. A successful hold above this zone could encourage a bullish push towards the 150.00 psychological level. Breaking through this level could lead to further upward momentum, strengthening the pair's bullish bias. - Moving Averages: On the daily chart, USDJPY remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a well-established uptrend. Conclusion: USDJPY Slightly Bullish Bias for 03/10/2024 In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to maintain a slightly bullish bias today, supported by strong U.S. dollar fundamentals, central bank divergence, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and favorable market sentiment. Traders should watch for key levels of resistance and monitor U.S. data releases later this week, which could provide additional bullish momentum for the pair. This analysis reflects the latest fundamental factors and market conditions for USDJPY on October 3, 2024, offering insights for traders seeking to capitalize on today's potential bullish movement. Keywords for SEO: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY trading, USDJPY bullish bias, U.S. dollar strength, Bank of Japan monetary policy, Federal Reserve interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields, Forex market analysis, USDJPY 03/10/2024, TradingView analysis.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USD/JPY Recovers from Below 140.00 Area During BoJThe USD/JPY pair has staged an impressive recovery, pushing toward the 143.00 level in the European morning session, following an initial dip below 140.00. This move comes in response to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, as widely expected. Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference reiterated the central bank's cautious approach toward tightening monetary conditions, which triggered a temporary pullback in the currency pair. From a technical standpoint, this recovery aligns with our prior analysis that pointed to a potential reversal within a demand zone near the 140.00 level. This area has acted as a key support, fueling buying momentum and setting the stage for a continuation of the long position. The price action suggests that buyers are still keen to capitalize on dips in the pair, particularly as USD strength remains broadly supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook. Further supporting the bullish outlook is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders remain bearish on the USD/JPY pair. Typically, a contrarian view of retail positioning can indicate further upside potential, as institutional investors tend to take the opposite side of the trade. With retail sentiment still leaning toward the short side, it opens the door for continued upward movement in the pair, especially if market sentiment shifts further in favor of the U.S. dollar. As we look ahead, the USD/JPY appears poised to target higher levels, with 143.00 acting as an immediate resistance. Should the bullish momentum persist, traders may set their sights on a potential breakout, paving the way for a sustained move higher. All eyes will remain on global central banks and key economic data releases in the coming weeks, as these will likely play a crucial role in shaping the next leg of the USD/JPY’s trajectory. Previous Analysis ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/JPY: Japanese Yen Slips on Dovish CommentsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) struggled on Monday following dovish remarks from Japan's incoming Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba. In a statement on Sunday, Ishiba emphasized the need to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, underlining the importance of low borrowing costs to support Japan's fragile economic recovery. These comments weighed on the Yen, particularly against the US Dollar (USD), as traders interpreted the remarks as a signal that Japan's central bank is unlikely to shift toward tightening any time soon. Ishiba's stance reflects Japan's ongoing economic challenges, where inflation remains subdued, and growth has yet to gain meaningful traction. By advocating for continued stimulus, the new Prime Minister aligns himself with the Bank of Japan’s longstanding ultra-loose monetary policy, a position that contrasts sharply with the tightening cycles of other major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve. From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair remains within a key demand area on the daily chart, suggesting a potential bullish setup. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain strongly bearish on the Yen, while institutional investors, or "smart money," have shifted to more bullish positions. This divergence between retail sentiment and institutional activity hints at a possible reversal in the Yen’s fortunes, as large players appear to be positioning for a stronger JPY in the near term. The combination of these fundamental and technical factors sets the stage for potential bullish momentum in the Japanese Yen. Despite the immediate downside pressure caused by Ishiba's comments, market dynamics suggest that the JPY could rebound if economic conditions in Japan stabilize or if geopolitical factors shift global risk sentiment. As the market continues to digest the implications of Japan's monetary policy stance, traders will be looking for signs of a reversal or further weakness in the Yen. In conclusion, while the Japanese Yen has softened in the wake of dovish policy signals from incoming PM Shigeru Ishiba, the technical picture suggests that a rebound could be on the horizon. The interplay between bearish retail sentiment and bullish institutional moves could trigger a bullish momentum shift in the coming sessions, making the JPY a currency to watch closely. Traders should remain cautious, keeping an eye on both policy developments in Japan and broader global economic trends. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USDJPY - SHORT TRADE IDEAWeekly Bearish, Daily Bearish, 4hr Bearish Structure indicates high volumes of short positions are entered into the market. Based on market structure we should have a move to the downside from this AOI at round psychological level 144.000. Daily formed a bearish candle on the daily showing rejection from our AOI Entered on an engulfing 30 minute candle which broke structure on the 15 minute timeframe. Price is currently forming an engulfing on the 1hr and 2hr aswell. This trade offers us a 1:4 RR.
Short
by CiupacabraFX
Risk of bullish USD/JPY breakout growing USD/JPY is hitting the top of the range it’s been in since mid-August. With RSI (14) and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, and having cleared the 50DMA, it feels like this attempted breakout may succeed where others have failed. If we see a break and hold above resistance at 147.06, consider buying with a tight stop below the level for protection. Risk management is particularly important given escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The August 15 high around 149.40 would be the initial trade target with 149.70 the next after that. 151 would offer a tougher test, coinciding with the intersection of multiple levels including the 200DMA. If the price were to reverse back below 147.06 and/or the uptrend dating back to mid-September, the near-term bullish bias would be nullified. Good luck! DS
Long
by FOREXcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 3, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair has continued to gain ground following the breakout through the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Wednesday. On Thursday, it attracted buyers for the second consecutive day. This marks the third consecutive day of positive movement, lifting spot prices to the 147.200-147.250 area, representing the highest level since 20 August during the Asian session. The Japanese yen (JPY) has been adversely affected by the comments made by the newly appointed Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, on Wednesday. Mr Ishiba stated that the current economic environment does not allow for an additional rate hike. Furthermore, Japan's recently appointed Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa anticipates that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will conduct a thorough economic assessment prior to implementing the next interest rate hike. In addition, the political uncertainty ahead of the 27 October snap election continues to exert a downward pressure on the Japanese yen, thereby providing a tailwind for the USD/JPY. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) has maintained its robust recovery this week and is currently trading near a three-week high, as the likelihood of further aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) diminishes. Indeed, markets have reduced their expectations of another significant Federal Reserve interest rate cut in November, reflecting the continued resilience of the US labour market, as evidenced by Wednesday's positive ADP report. This is regarded as a further factor driving demand for the USD/JPY pair and supporting further upside potential. From a technical standpoint, the overnight breakout and close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since mid-July is seen as a new boost for those with a bullish outlook. Furthermore, positive oscillators on the daily chart confirm a constructive outlook and indicate that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside. Traders are now awaiting the release of data on the US economy, including weekly initial jobless claims and the ISM services PMI. This data, along with the Fed's speech, will have an impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate and will provide a boost to the currency pair. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 145.80, which is a pullback support. Our take profit will be at 146.86, a pullback resistance close to 127.2% Fibonacci extension The stop loss will be placed at 144.32, which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Key Support Holds for USD/JPY: Will the Pair Break Past 150?On Friday, USD/JPY experienced a significant sell-off, losing around 500 pips in a sharp downward movement. However, after reaching the key horizontal support level at 141.64, the pair managed to find some relief and began a recovery, suggesting that the recent decline may have been short-lived. Currently, USD/JPY is working to negate this steep sell-off, indicating that the recovery process could be underway. In my view, USD/JPY is poised to continue its rebound from the 162-140 decline, with the potential to surpass the psychological barrier of 150. If the pair successfully breaks through this level, it could head toward the important resistance zone near 152, which will be a critical point for further bullish momentum. For shorter-term traders, there are additional levels to monitor before reaching the 150 mark. Key upside targets include 147.30 and 149.40, both of which present potential profit-taking opportunities as the pair continues its recovery.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
USDJPY: Strong recovery from 143.00Ben, hello everyone! Let's dive into today's USDJPY analysis with Ben! USDJPY is in an uptrend today, currently trading at 143.95, up 0.29% on the day. With USDJPY continuing to trade steadily at this positive level, the resistance level of 144.50 will be set as a short-term target, before potentially reacting and testing the price level of 143.00, forming a trend line and using it as strong support for further increases in the medium and long term. The current expected price levels are at the round level of 145.00 and 146.00 respectively and even the upper trend channel limit at 147.00. Wishing you all profitable trading!
Long
by Bentradegold
1
USDJPY looks set to extend its recovery to150 USDJPY finished higher overnight at 146.47 (+0.99%), boosted by stronger-than-expected ADP employment data and comments from new Japanese Prime Minister Ishida, who met with #BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday. Defying his reputation as a monetary policy hawk, Ishiba said the economy is not yet ready for further rate hikes. At the same time, Ueda reiterated his less hawkish remarks from last month's BoJ meeting. This pushes back the prospects of another rate hike until early 2025. If tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls report is in line or stronger than the 140k expected as hinted by this week’s JOLTS and ADP labour market updates, we should see USD/JPY continue to rise towards 150, a level not touched since late July.
Long
by IG_com