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USDJPY - Could the pair break the 150 resistance?Fundamental analysis From a fundamental perspective, the dollar-yen continues to move to the upside, trading near the significant 150 resistance level, mostly due to increasing speculations that the US Federal Reserve will be more cautious in cutting interest rates in the future, which strengthened the US dollar. Regarding the Japanese yen, markets reacted to Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi's latest comments. Adachi said conditions are already in place to normalize monetary policy but emphasized that the central bank must raise interest rates at a "very moderate" pace. He warned that the BoJ should avoid a radical policy change given uncertainties over the global economic outlook and domestic wage growth. Technical analysis From a technical perspective, the price is recovering from previous losses after testing the last support level at around 140. USDJPY is trading near the 150 resistance (50% Fibonacci level), with the RSI showing a bearish divergence after being in the overbought zone. This suggests a possible reversion to the downside in the short term. If the price continues to fall, it could test the next support at 148 before 145 (23.6% Fibonacci level). Conversely, if the price continues to rise, it could test the next resistance around 150 before 153 (61.8% Fibonacci level).
by MariaAgustinaPatti_Exness
Using Big Data Analytics in Forex TradingUsing Big Data Analytics in Forex Trading Recent years have seen explosive growth in the amount of data in circulation, and the financial industry is no exception. The use of big data analytics in forex trading has become increasingly popular as traders and institutions look to gain a competitive edge through the analysis of vast data sets. The forex market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily turnover of trillions of US dollars. The market is constantly changing. One might argue that such a tendency to change makes it difficult for traders to make decisions. Therefore, the use of big data in forex analytics acts as an essential advanced tool and serves as a means to overcome decision-making challenges. This FXOpen article explores why big data in trading has the potential to revolutionise the way traders approach the market and looks into how it can provide them with valuable insights. Big Data in Forex Trading Big data refers to the large quantity of diverse information that is generated every day from a variety of sources. Such volumes of information cannot be processed and analysed by users or simple office software. Therefore, there’s a whole set of sophisticated technologies designed for working with it. The set typically includes tools for data collection, storage, preprocessing, cleaning, and analysis. To collect and store large amounts of information, traders use cloud computing and distributed databases. Before analysing it, traders preprocess and clean it to remove any noise or inconsistencies using techniques such as normalisation and outlier detection. In the context of forex trading, big data includes market figures, economic indicators, social media sentiment, news articles, and more. The role of big data in forex is enormous. With the help of analytics, traders can select relevant, promising assets and make informed trading decisions, thereby gaining a competitive advantage. Sources of Big Data in the Forex Market Predictive analytics and big data provide actionable insights about the FX market and the general mood of market participants. Here are some of the sources incorporated into big data models used for forex trading purposes: - Market figures — real-time and historical price, order flow, and trade execution data. - Economic indicators — figures of inflation, GDP, employment, various indices, earnings reports, industrial production figures, and other economic indicators. - Social media sentiment — comments from social media platforms such as Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook, which provide insights into public sentiment towards certain countries and their currencies. - News articles — articles from financial news sources such as Bloomberg and Reuters, which inform traders about market trends, governmental policies, and major events. How Big Data Analytics Affect Forex Big data analytics significantly impact forex trading, offering both advantages and challenges. Let’s first explore how big data analytics can help in forex trading. Pros: - Improved forecasting and predictive modelling - Real-time market monitoring and analysis - Enhanced risk management and decision support Analysing big data helps traders uncover future market movements and identify patterns that may not be visible through traditional analysis methods. It can provide traders with real-time insights into current trends and high-impact economic events, which allows them to react quickly to changes. Analytics can also simplify risk identification and management. These benefits make big data analytics a key tool for renowned and successful financial institutions. For example, JPMorgan Chase uses it to analyse millions of transactions daily, detect suspicious patterns, and prevent fraudulent activities and money laundering. Meanwhile, the investment bank Goldman Sachs uses it to identify trends in various markets, improve the company’s trading strategies, and enhance risk management. Despite the inspiring cases and the benefits of using it, big data analytics is not a cure-all and has some downsides. Cons: - Requires significant resources - Possible security issues - Possible overfitting Since big data analysis requires significant computing power and storage, as well as high bandwidth, using this approach is not cheap, and it can be problematic for retail traders and trading start-ups. Besides, big data analytics involves collecting sensitive financial information, which is often targeted by cyberattacks. Unintentional breaches are also possible, so companies employ additional security algorithms. This can increase costs as well. Another issue comes when the data analysis model fits too closely to its training basis. Overfitting makes it unable to perform accurately against unseen information. It is related to the issue of capturing patterns without being overly influenced by irrelevant information. If traders rely on algorithms to analyse data, this drawback could hinder their performance. Risk Management in Big Data-Driven Trading Based on the limitations and possible problems with large-scale analyses, the question of risk management in the use of big data arises. Here are some considerations on what a trader could do to minimise risks. 1. Traders use risk controls and backtesting to check whether trading strategies are effective and not overly risky. 2. To ensure that the figures are accurate, consistent, up-to-date, and reliable, traders may implement quality control measures such as data validation and verification. 3. Leveraging different sources of big data allows traders to drive their risk management strategies with more confidence as they get a holistic picture of the currency market. Big Data Analytics Strategies in Forex The most popular big data forex trading strategy involves using traditional technical and fundamental analysis, which is enhanced by additional insights and information obtained through big data analytics. Then comes trading based on sentiment analysis and social media monitoring. As mentioned, social media is necessary to understand how the trading community feels about the currency and whether they think it is a good decision to trade it. Lastly, big data analytics improves algorithmic trading, which involves using computer programs to execute trades automatically based on predefined rules. Big data analysis may be helpful in determining these rules. Final Thoughts The use of big data in forex trading and analysing vast amounts of information helps traders gain valuable insights into market trends and make more informed decisions. However, there are also challenges and limitations associated with big data analytics, including overfitting and cybersecurity threats. If you want to trade in the forex market with attractive conditions, you can open an FXOpen account. To create and test trading strategies, you can use the TickTrader trading platform. Alongside trading tools and various assets, there are advanced charts with accurate price history. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
5
USDJPY H1 | Bullish BounceBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 148.64, which is a pullback support that aligns with 50% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 149.44, an overlap resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 147.91, which is a pullback support level aligns with 78.6% Fibo retracement,. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
2
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 149.51 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 150.33 Why we like it: There is a resistance level at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 148.42 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the like and subscribe buttons! Last week, concerns about inflation due to the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased as the September Producer Price Index (PPI) came out, strengthening expectations for a rate cut within the year. Fedwatch now reflects over a 90% chance of a 25bp rate cut in the November FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Japan has yet to provide any clear hints about a rate hike. Recently, Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor Himino stated that future data must be carefully evaluated. The market interprets this as a delay in Japan's rate hike, expecting it to happen either in December this year or in January next year. In Europe, due to the recent poor performance of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI and inflation falling below target, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bp in its October monetary policy meeting. + October 16: UK September CPI + October 17: Eurozone September CPI, ECB rate decision, U.S. September retail sales USDJPY surged to the 150 level, but is experiencing a pullback due to resistance in the 149-152 range. If the pullback continues in this range, we expect it to drop to the 140 level and form a box range. However, if there’s a short-term pullback and it rises to 152, resistance is expected at that level, leading to a fall back to the 145 level. If variables cause a breakout above 152, we could see additional upward movement to 154. If the market moves contrary to expectations, we will quickly adjust our strategy.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Traders could veer towards the yen with risk events loomingIt is no coincidence that VIX futures have been creeping higher in recent weeks despite Wall Street hitting record highs, as traders are presumably hedging downside risk as we approach the US election. And that means it may not take much to spook traders out of bullish bets with markets at frothy levels, and that could see the yen strengthen as a safety play. Matt Simpson takes a technical look at yen pairs of interest.
Editors' picks
Short
by CityIndex
5
JPY OutlooksFundametnal Analysis: OANDA:USDJPY pair is currently positioned for potential strength in the U.S. dollar, driven by contrasting economic fundamentals between Japan and the U.S. Japan's GDP growth rate is modest at 0.7%, with an annual contraction of -0.2%, signaling economic weakness, while inflation remains moderate at 2.8%. The Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rate of 0.25% further weakens the yen as it contrasts sharply with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher rates (5.25%), making USD assets more attractive. Japan's manufacturing sector is showing signs of contraction with a PMI of 49.8, while services remain in expansion at 53.7. The trade deficit and low consumer confidence in Japan, combined with relatively stronger U.S. growth, indicate that USD/JPY is likely to remain bullish, with the yen under continued pressure unless there is a major policy shift by the Bank of Japan. Tip: The USD/JPY pair is likely to remain bullish as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates at 5.25% while the BOJ maintains its ultra-low 0.25% rate, favoring the dollar. The interest rate differential and Japan's loose monetary policy continue to put downward pressure on the yen, supporting USD strength. (USD/JPY may go bullish again very soon) Technical Analysis: OANDA:USDJPY chart shows a potential bullish reversal forming at the pivot level of 140.822. If the price holds above this support, the pair could rally toward the targets of 148.604 and 151.144. A break below 138.882 could invalidate this bullish outlook. The current structure suggests a likely upward move in the near term. Overral view
Long
by rTrader_official
1