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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY: USD Faces Correction Ahead of Key Retail Sales DataThe Japanese Yen has strengthened as the US Dollar begins to correct downward in anticipation of upcoming Retail Sales data. Japan's GDP annualized growth for the third quarter was reported at 0.9%, a notable decline from the 2.2% growth seen in the second quarter. In response to currency market volatility, Japan’s Finance Minister Kato emphasized his commitment to taking necessary measures to counter excessive fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. From a technical analysis perspective, the current price indicates a rebound in an area where multiple supply zones converge, suggesting the potential for a pullback of the USD against the JPY. Retail traders continue to show a bullish stance towards the US Dollar, while other market participants appear uncertain or bearish in their outlook. Given the significant rally in the USD that followed the Trump election victory, we are observing for a possible correction. As these dynamics play out, attention to price patterns and broader economic indicators will be essential for traders navigating this market environment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
USD/JPY Daily Chart AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair is currently moving within an upward channel, demonstrating a steady uptrend since the recent lows around 139.56. The pair has been respecting key Fibonacci retracement levels, which could act as areas of support and resistance. Key Levels to Watch: 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement (156.67): This level has served as a resistance zone, and a breakout above could pave the way for a test of the recent highs around 157.84. Support Zones: Immediate support is seen at the 0.382 retracement (153.40), with additional support at the 0.618 level (148.12). A break below the channel could see a retest of these supports. Indicators & Trends: Moving Averages: The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are acting as dynamic support levels, supporting the current bullish trend. Volume: There was a recent increase in volume as the pair rallied, suggesting strong buying interest. However, watch for any drop in volume, as it could signal weakening momentum. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is approaching overbought territory, so caution is advised as the pair nears resistance zones. Outlook: The pair may experience consolidation between the 153.40 support and 156.67 resistance levels in the short term. A breakout above 156.67 could lead to a potential test of 157.84 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below the support trendline may shift momentum towards the downside, targeting lower Fibonacci levels and potentially the key support near 143.88. Trading Plan: Bullish Bias: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 156.67, aiming for the 157.84 level. Bearish Bias : A confirmed break below the channel could signal a trend reversal, with initial targets near 150.75 and 148.12. Always consider using appropriate risk management.
Long
by AngshumanSaikia
USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
1
USD/JPY: Bearish Setup Triggered – Major Reversal Underway?The USD/JPY currency pair reached a pivotal high in July 2024 at 161.951, followed by a significant drop to 139.581. We interpret this as wave 1, unfolding through an A, B, and C corrective countertrend. As of 15 November 2024, we estimate that wave C peaked around the 156.7 level. From here, we project a substantial bearish reversal, with the pair potentially breaking below the 130 level. The invalidation level for this bearish scenario is set at 161.951. Should this resistance hold, traders could anticipate sustained downside momentum. This bearish forecast is supported by technical indicators aligning with broader macroeconomic factors. Key resistance lies at the 156.7 level, with traders advised to monitor this zone closely. Strategic positioning could offer opportunities for profit while mitigating risks, as this move signals a significant market shift.
by VitalDirection
Consolidation Midweek Rally #7 Daily fractal tuesday tradeAfter Friday touched the daily Orderblock formed during election week, I saw the perfect opportunity for a daily fractal trade. I waited for the London session's move, and since price dropped below the Asian range after 12:00 AM New York time, I waited for a 15-minute Orderblock to form and retraced into it. The entry happened around 2:00 AM, but even if I had waited until 2:30 AM, the result would have been the same. I took partial profits and closed the entire trade on Thursday after price hit a Premium Discount (PD) array. Although the playbook suggests Friday often sets the high of the week, I chose not to be greedy and exited early. doing screenshots and publish really helps me a lot :D
by Bufalodorato
Japan GDP beats forecast, yen ends skidThe Japanese yen is in positive territory today, putting the brakes on a four-day skid. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.54 down 0.45% on the day. Japan’s economy expanded by 0.9% in the third quarter, below the revised 2.2% gain in Q2 but above the market estimate of 0.7%. Quarterly, GDP rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.5% gain in Q2 and matching expectations. The GDP numbers were not sparkling but point to a second straight quarter of growth. August economic activity was dampened due to a “megaquake” alert and a fierce typhoon which caused widespread destruction and disruption. Private consumption, which comprises more than half of the country’s GDP showed strong growth of 3.6% y/y, despite the weather issues. This is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation rise to demand and consumption. The BoJ has been vague about the timing of a rate hike but the markets are looking at December or January as likely dates. The yen has been wobbly and is down 2.3% in November. If the yen’s downswing continues, the BoJ could decide to hike rates at the Dec. 19 meeting. There is also the possibility of the Ministry of Finance intervening in the currency markets if the yen declines sharply. The US wraps up the week with retail sales for October, with a market estimate of 1.9%. Retails sales eased to 1.7% y/y in September, which was an 8-month low. Monthly, retail sales are expected to inch up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Consumer spending has been generally strong and consumer confidence should improve now that the uncertainty over the US election is over. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 1.5601 and is testing 1.5560. The next support line is 1.5493 1.5668 and 1.5709 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY Potential Trajectory Around Intervention Levels..Whispers of Intervention (again) by the Japanese Govt have come across the board as the USD drives higher. Japanese officials are aware of demand into USD post Trump Election and will be monitoring the weakening of the JPY carefully. We've seen several Japanese interventions in recent history, and anything more would likely deliver a larger fall back to lows to keep price sustainable. It is is more the rate at which the weakening happens, not so much the eventual price. So any data that spurs a further drive into the USD could cause this to happen. Any entries, must be light. I would not take anything seriously long here at all given the position the JPY is in, not least how weak it is already. With intervention chatter on the cards its a recipe for long disaster, even despite rate differentials. S/L may be helpful. Keeping a close eye on news sentiment as we go forward.
Short
by WillSebastian
4
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fed’sUSDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fed’s Dovish Outlook and Yen’s Safe-Haven Appeal 15/11/2024 Introduction Today’s outlook for USDJPY leans towards a slight bearish bias, driven by multiple factors that currently favor the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, increased safe-haven demand for the yen, and recent technical indicators pointing to downside potential, USDJPY appears set for a potential downward trend. This analysis provides key insights into the main drivers shaping the pair’s movement today, offering valuable information for forex traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve Reducing USD Appeal Recent U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected inflation and moderate job growth, has led to a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve. With expectations for rate hikes now muted, the USD faces downward pressure. The dovish stance has weakened the dollar’s appeal, supporting a bearish bias for USDJPY as investors seek alternatives like the yen. 2. Increased Safe-Haven Demand for Japanese Yen The Japanese yen traditionally serves as a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of global uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical concerns and fluctuating economic conditions in various regions, demand for safe-haven assets like the yen has increased. This factor adds to the downward pressure on USDJPY, as traders shift to more stable options amid market volatility. 3. Stable Policy from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Supporting Yen While the Bank of Japan has maintained its accommodative policy stance, recent signals suggest that any policy adjustments could be dependent on sustained inflation improvements. This stability in BoJ’s approach has reinforced confidence in the yen, contributing to its strength against a softer dollar. The BoJ’s consistent position gives the JPY added support, favoring a bearish bias for USDJPY. 4. Technical Indicators Showing Bearish Momentum From a technical perspective, USDJPY is currently trading below key resistance levels and the 50-day moving average, both of which point to a bearish trend. Indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) show bearish signals, suggesting potential for further downside in the pair. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY remains below its 50-day moving average, indicating continued downward pressure. The RSI is trending lower without reaching oversold territory, which implies room for additional declines without a correction. MACD and Volume Trends The MACD has shown a bearish crossover, supporting expectations for a bearish trend. Volume analysis also reflects a steady increase in selling interest, further aligning with today’s bearish bias for USDJPY. --- Conclusion With the Fed’s dovish outlook, rising safe-haven demand for the yen, and supportive technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should stay vigilant to any changes in risk sentiment or key economic data releases, as these factors could impact the pair’s movement. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDWeakness - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG