USDJPY Probably the weirdest price action i have seen all week. This really should of dropped as it was showing clear reversal signs but i guess that 50 fib was more important. Who knows?
USDJPY trade ideas
USD JPYTHIS IS MY SETUP FOR USD JPY
I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3.
Trade carefully
This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Trade Recap: USDJPY - SHORT, 01/10/2024UJ Bias Analysis: With 4H displacement lower, and an alignment with the daily short bias, an Optimal Alignment entry presented itself which was in line wit the 1H range. Price traded higher over the course of Asian session into 1H EPD and priori to London open protracted higher, sweeping TBL before displacing lower, where entry confirmation was received.
Grade: High Probability
What I did well or could've done better:
- Did not frame the initial entry the market presented due to the large stop loss, even though the R:R criteria was met.
- Stayed focused and was able to execute on the next opportunity that presented itself, despite having a larger stop than the first position which resulted in a lower targeted R-multiple.
USDJPY Short #2 (Sell Stop)Took a loss in the first short but I still think it will start dropping so I am entering with a sell stop under 15 minute candle so price has to fill us in for our trade to be executed, I think this will start creating structure on the 1H timeframe for price to balance out.
USDJPY sell (Market Execution)Short term sell targeting yesterdays buy imbalance but I am still looking for buys on the 4H time frame although I am selling this isn't a A+ setup... we will see how this price plays out but this leg should be a HL in the making if my analysis is correct... Like I said day by day my analysis can change.
UsdJpy Trade IdeaI posted a long set up for UJ stating price could definitely push to the upside with the daily structure still being bullish. I was personally waiting on price to pullback and retest where price had flipped back to bullish to confirm the push to the upside. Looking for a 1:3rr ! We'll see how price moves with USD having news in the morning.
UJ GJ shortIf there shows a wick and failure to break zone shorting this gj and UJ from the 1hr close, may look at 15m for some better entries, pref green candles then red candles. as long as price gets stuck. looking for some wicks to enter the short.
USD/JPY BUY NOWHi traders we have trade on USD/JPY BUY. analysis taken from daily time frame. using swing high and swing low. trust your analysis
Certified price action king.
USD/JPY Short Setup: 30-Minute ChartI'm looking at a potential short position on USD/JPY based on the current price action and market structure.
Entry on Retracement: 143.750 after the recent breakdown of the ascending trendline.
Stop Loss (SL): 144.000 (25 pips).
Take Profit (TP): I'm targeting multiple TPs along the way for scaling out of the position:
TP 1: 143.500 (+18.9 pips) – A conservative first target to lock in some early profits.
TP 2: 143.200 (+48.9 pips) – Close to the previous support, scaling out of a portion of the trade.
TP 3: 142.800 (+88.9 pips) – A key support level based on historical price action.
TP 4: 142.300 (+138.9 pips) – Next significant support zone.
TP 5: 141.800 (+188.9 pips) – Final target at a major psychological level.
The idea here is to capture the downward move following a potential retracement into resistance near 143.750, which aligns with previous structure. The overall bearish sentiment could drive prices lower toward the major target areas.
USDJPY Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 144.800 zone, USDJPY was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 144.800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis SELLDaily Chart Overview: On the daily timeframe, USD/JPY has been trading within a descending wedge pattern, signaling a potential breakout. The price recently approached the key support level at 141.74 before rebounding upward. We now see price consolidating near 143.76, close to the wedge's upper boundary. Should the pair break above this resistance, the next target would be 146.49, a significant level seen in the previous price action. If the pair fails to break higher, expect a retest of the support at 141.74. This wedge pattern could be setting the stage for a directional move in the coming sessions, with the bias currently leaning toward a bullish breakout.
4-Hour Chart Overview: On the 4-hour chart, the price is reacting after testing a strong supply zone around 144.00, pulling back to 143.75. Two potential scenarios could unfold here:
A continued bearish move towards the key support levels at 142.97 and 141.59.
A reversal from the current level with a retest of the supply zone and a possible push to break the upper resistance near 146.48.
Traders should monitor price action closely at these levels, as a break above the supply zone could lead to significant upside momentum. Conversely, failure to hold the current support could trigger a larger pullback.
1-Hour Chart Overview: On the 1-hour chart, USD/JPY formed an ascending channel which recently broke to the downside. The price is currently hovering around 143.80 after rejecting the 144.08 resistance level. The recent bearish price action hints at further downside potential, with a target towards 142.78, where demand could step in. This aligns with the lower target area identified on higher timeframes.
If price action remains bearish, traders should be cautious of a short-term retest of the broken channel before continuing lower. However, should bulls manage to reclaim the 144.08 level, it would invalidate the bearish outlook, and focus would shift to the previous highs.
Conclusion: USD/JPY is at a critical juncture, with key levels to watch for in the short term. On the upside, a break above 144.08 and a successful retest of the wedge on the daily chart could see the pair targeting 146.48. On the downside, failure to hold current support could push the pair towards 142.78 and 141.74. Keep an eye on price action around these critical levels for potential trading opportunities.
USDJPY SELL ANALYSIS Here on Usdjpy price has make a resistance around level of 144.416 and is likely to fall so going for SHORT is needed with target profit of 141.916 and set stoploss to 144.859. Use money management
USDJPY trading signalsSELL USDJPY broke the trendline and support zone of the Asian session. The signal has retested the trend zone to welcome our entry before falling 50 pips.
SELL USDJPY small lot now zone 144.200-144.400
Stoploss 144.600
Take Profit 1 143.800
Take Profit 2 142.500
Analysis-USDJPY-H4_September-2024In my view, in the next few days or even hours, we will see USDJPY enter my supply zone and then start a continuation of the main trend.
If the trade enters, the target would be the marked 125% level.
USDJPYUSDJPY is trading in strong bullish trend and consistently printing HH HLs. and is about complete ABCD pattern at strong daily resistance level. Recently the price is broken the important support zone and now retesting the broken level, which is also the 50% Fib retracement level.
If the buy momentum continues the next target could be 148
What you guys think of this idea?
USDJPY Analysis for 01/10/2024: A Slightly Bullish Bias ExpectedThe USDJPY currency pair continues to exhibit a slightly bullish bias as of October 1, 2024, driven by the current fundamental factors and prevailing market conditions. In this article, we will explore the key drivers behind this trend, providing forex traders with actionable insights for today’s trading session.
Key Drivers Behind USDJPY Bullish Bias
1. Hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve Policy
One of the key factors supporting the bullish outlook for USDJPY is the ongoing hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. The Fed remains committed to controlling inflation, which has led to higher interest rates in the U.S. This rate differential favors the U.S. dollar over the Japanese yen, as investors are drawn to the higher returns offered by U.S. assets. The expectation of steady or potentially higher rates from the Fed further boosts demand for the U.S. dollar, pushing USDJPY higher.
2. Weakness in the Japanese Yen
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, with little indication of shifting towards a more hawkish stance. This dovish approach, coupled with a lack of inflationary pressure in Japan, has led to a sustained weakness in the yen. As long as the BoJ maintains its negative interest rate policy and yields remain low, USDJPY is likely to see upward momentum, supported by the widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates.
3. U.S. Economic Strength
Recent U.S. economic data continues to show resilience, particularly in the labor market and consumer spending. This strength provides further justification for the Fed’s hawkish stance and supports a bullish bias for USDJPY. As long as the U.S. economy outperforms its global peers, particularly Japan, the dollar is likely to retain its strength against the yen.
4. Interest Rate Differentials
The widening interest rate differential between U.S. and Japan is another significant factor driving USDJPY higher. U.S. bond yields remain elevated, attracting foreign investment into U.S. markets, while Japan’s government bonds offer little to no yield. This creates a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, keeping upward pressure on USDJPY.
5. Geopolitical Stability in the U.S.
While geopolitical risks globally remain a concern, the relative stability in the U.S. compared to regions like Europe or Asia continues to attract investors to the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, is seeing reduced demand due to Japan’s domestic challenges and the BoJ’s accommodative policy, further boosting USDJPY.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is currently trading near resistance levels, with the 150.00 mark acting as a key psychological barrier. A break above this level could open the door for further gains toward the 151.00 level. Support is seen around 148.50, which could act as a floor for any short-term pullbacks. Traders should monitor these levels closely as the pair’s momentum remains positive.
Conclusion: USDJPY Bullish Sentiment Expected to Continue
In conclusion, USDJPY is likely to maintain a slightly bullish bias today, driven by the ongoing divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan, strong U.S. economic fundamentals, and interest rate differentials. Traders should look for potential upside opportunities as the pair tests key resistance levels, with U.S. data releases and BoJ policy statements remaining crucial to shaping the pair’s direction.
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USD/JPY Analysis Update 01.10.2024USD/JPY Analysis Update:
The market has moved slightly higher than expected, and currently, a bearish divergence appears to be forming on the 1H chart, indicating a potential pullback soon. We expect a support/resistance flip in the highlighted area on the chart, which served as resistance and now should act as support. This zone will be the entry level, with yesterday’s low as the invalidation point. The target remains unchanged from the previous analysis.
Additionally, the diagonal trendline supporting the uptrend from yesterday’s low has been broken, which further strengthens the case for a potential pullback from the current levels. If the price holds above this level, we could see continuation; otherwise, a deeper correction might follow.
⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️
🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
USDJPY SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Usdjpy price has just form a rising pattern and likely to move down so a trader should be looking to go for SHORT ias the price has broken the 143.067 level and target profit of 141.695 and 140.405 . Use money management
USDJPY Short - A Bearish Setup in the Making?As we dive into the USDJPY chart, I'm seeing several key technical signals that suggest a potential move to the downside. Let’s break it down step by step:
Weekly Timeframe: A Crucial Swing High
First, we zoom out to the weekly chart, where we can observe that USDJPY is currently within a strong swing that recently broke a prior high. This is a crucial moment, as we often see a retest of the upper range of such a swing before the market decides its next move. Will it push higher, or are we preparing for a pullback? I’m leaning towards the latter.
Daily Timeframe: Triple Failures at the High
Dropping down to the daily, the story unfolds further. We’ve seen two previous attempts to break the current daily swing high, only for the market to flush down on this third attempt. This is my first major bearish signal, as failure to maintain momentum often precedes a reversal.
4-Hour Timeframe: No Support in the Pump
On the 4-hour chart, things get even more interesting. I’m not seeing the kind of ladder formation that typically supports sustained pushes to the upside. Instead, the price action looks choppy, lacking the structure that would indicate buyers are in full control. This adds weight to the bearish case.
Weak Stop-Loss Hunt: A Lackluster Liquidity Grab
One more point to consider is the recent liquidity grab (or stop-loss hunt) on the 4-hour chart. While these wicks usually indicate a shakeout of weak hands, this one feels weak, more like a failed attempt to trap traders in the wrong direction. In my experience, when the liquidity grab doesn’t pack a punch, it often signals the market's lack of commitment to push higher.
Timing is Key: The Tuesday Top Pattern
Lastly, an interesting observation – USDJPY has a tendency to form local tops on Tuesdays, a pattern I’ve noticed over time. While this isn't a concrete rule, it’s an intriguing confirmation of the broader bearish setup we’re seeing here.
Fundamental Analysis: Why the USDJPY Could Dump
Fundamentally, USDJPY could be under pressure due to the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains ultra-dovish, but there are growing signs of internal pressure to shift toward more normalization in policy, particularly with inflation running higher than expected. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may pause or slow its rate hikes as US economic growth moderates. This narrowing of the policy gap could weaken the dollar against the yen, especially if we start seeing signs of a BoJ shift or weaker-than-expected US data in upcoming releases.
Furthermore, concerns over global growth and risk sentiment could lead to a stronger yen as a safe-haven asset. If the stock market falters, capital tends to flow back into the yen, exacerbating the potential for a USDJPY decline.
Conclusion: Eyeing the Lower Range
All things considered, USDJPY looks poised for a move lower. A retest of the lower range of the current daily swing seems likely before any potential attempt to push back to the upside. Understanding swing highs and lows and their respective ranges is a key tool in this analysis. Let’s see how the price action plays out in the coming sessions.
USD/JPY H1 | Potential bearish breakoutUSD/JPY has reacted off an overlap resistance and broken below the lower trendline of the bullish channel; price could potentially drop lower from here.
Sell entry is at 144.06 (sell at market).
Stop loss is at 144.80 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 142.88 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Market Fundamental Analysis for 1 October 2024 USDJPYAn event to look out for today:
17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
USDJPY:
The USD/JPY pair is building on an overnight good bounce from the 141.60 area, or near two-week lows, and gaining momentum for the second day in a row on Tuesday. The upward movement takes spot prices above 144.00 during the Asian session and is supported by a combination of factors.
The US Dollar (USD) is receiving support from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's relatively hawkish tone on Monday, which prompted investors to cut bets on another excessive rate cut in November. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, remains on the defensive amid comments from Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who said that the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy must remain accommodative to support the fragile economic recovery.
In addition, Ishiba said on Monday that he intends to call a general election for 27 October. Furthermore, bullish sentiment in global financial markets is undermining demand for the safe-haven Yen and serving as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. Bulls on the Japanese Yen remained on the sidelines after the Bank of Japan's September meeting released a summary of views that the central bank will adjust its accommodative stance if economic conditions improve.
In terms of economic data, Japan's unemployment rate fell more than expected to 2.5 per cent in August from 2.7 per cent in the previous month. In addition, the Bank of Japan's closely watched Tankan survey showed that sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers was stable in the three months to September, while sentiment among large non-manufacturers improved slightly. Nevertheless, this did not provide a boost to the Japanese Yen or the USD/JPY pair, supporting the outlook for further intraday gains.
Market participants now turn their attention to the economic agenda in the US, where ISM manufacturing PMI data and JOLTS job openings data will be released. These data, along with speeches of influential FOMC members, will stimulate demand for the dollar and create opportunities for short-term trading on the USD/JPY pair. In addition, important US macroeconomic releases scheduled for the beginning of the new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, should determine the next stage of directional movement.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
USDJPY BULLISH MOVEMENTA continuation buy setup for USD/JPY occurs when the pair is in an established uptrend, and traders look for opportunities to enter long positions after a pullback or consolidation phase. Here are a few key points to note about a continuation buy for USD/JPY:
1. Trend Confirmation: Ensure that the overall trend is bullish. This can be confirmed using trend lines, moving averages, or other trend-following indicators like the ADX (Average Directional Index).
2. Pullback or Consolidation: Look for a pullback to a key support level, such as a previous resistance-turned-support area, Fibonacci retracement levels, or a moving average (like the 50 or 100-period MA).
3. Entry Triggers: Use price action signals like bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, hammer) or momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) to time your entry when the price resumes its upward move after the pullback.
4. Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below the recent swing low or below a key support level to protect against a potential trend reversal.
5. Targets: Identify resistance levels or use extensions like Fibonacci or measured moves to set take-profit targets.
Staying disciplined with technical setups and managing risk is key in a continuation buy strategy.
Automated Trading vs Manual TradingAutomated Trading vs Manual Trading
In the modern world of trading, two distinct methodologies exist: manual trading vs algorithmic trading. Both these approaches aim at the same goal - to optimise profit and minimise losses in the financial markets. However, they vary significantly in their operation, the level of involvement required, and the nature of decision-making processes. In this FXOpen article, you will find the key differences between the approaches and their advantages and limitations that may help you to choose the right approach for you.
Definition of Manual Trading
Manual trading signifies the traditional approach to trading. In this method, a trader is actively involved in all aspects of the process. This includes conducting market research, analysing market trends, making buying or selling decisions, and placing trades. The manual approach relies heavily on the trader's skills, knowledge, and experience.
The manual trader uses various tools and methods, including technical and fundamental analyses, to make informed decisions. These methods involve studying past market data, economic indicators, company financials, and market news to predict future market movements. Despite being time-consuming, many traders prefer this approach as it allows them to control their trading activities and make adjustments based on their instincts and experience.
You can test manual trading at the free TickTrader platform.
Definition of Automated Trading
In contrast to human-based investing, automated trading, also known as algorithmic or robo trading, involves the use of computer programs or algorithms to analyse markets and place trades. These algorithms are designed to make trading decisions based on predefined rules and conditions. They can process large volumes of market data, identify market opportunities, and place trades quickly and precisely, something beyond human capability.
Robots can be programmed to follow various strategies based on technical analysis, quantitative analysis, and other principles. These algorithms are typically developed using programming languages and require a high degree of technical expertise.
However, many platforms now offer user-friendly tools for creating and testing algorithms, making auto-trading more accessible to the average trader. Also, some traders ask program developers to create a robot based on their requirements.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Manual Trading Systems
Despite being more traditional, manual investments hold their own advantages and disadvantages.
Advantages:
- The primary advantage of manual trading is the trader’s experience and ability to analyse markets. Unlike robotic systems, human traders can make intuitive decisions based on their experience and understanding of the market. In this case, the results of a duel between robot trading vs manual systems would end up beneficial to humans.
- Another advantage of the manual approach is the flexibility it offers. Manual traders can adjust their strategies and risk tolerance levels based on the changing market conditions, economic news, and their personal comfort level. The manual approach also provides a deeper understanding of the markets, as traders are actively involved in trading.
Disadvantages:
- Self-trading is not without its challenges. It necessitates a substantial commitment of time and focus. Manual traders need to monitor the markets continuously, conduct thorough market analyses, and make decisions. Manual execution of trades may also be emotionally taxing; emotional decisions can often lead to poor trading outcomes.
- In addition, human error can impact trading results. Unlike automated systems, manual traders cannot process large amounts of data quickly and accurately. This limitation can lead to missed trading opportunities or inaccurate decision-making.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Automated Trading Over Manual Trading
Advantages:
- Automated trading offers several advantages over the manual variety. Some of the most significant benefits are speed and accuracy. Automated systems can analyse market data and place trades in milliseconds, which is impossible for humans. Also, algo trading allows for 24/7 activity, as human factors like fatigue or emotions do not constrain it. In this case, the algorithms win in a duel of algo trading vs manual trading.
- Automated systems can handle multiple markets and securities simultaneously, allowing traders to diversify their portfolios more efficiently. By removing the emotional element from speculation, automated systems can help traders stick to their plans and avoid impulsive decisions.
Disadvantages:
- However, the automated approach also has its disadvantages. One of them is the need for a high level of technical expertise to set up and maintain the algorithms. Auto systems also have the risk of over-optimisation, where a system is fine-tuned to perform well based on past data but may not perform well in real market conditions.
- Another challenge with automated trading is its inability to adapt to sudden market changes that a human trader could intuitively understand and respond to. For instance, traders may adjust their strategies accordingly in case of significant economic news or events, but an algorithm might not be capable of such adaptability.
- Lastly, automated systems also carry the risk of technical glitches or system failures, which can lead to significant losses. It is, therefore, essential to regularly monitor and update automated systems.
Does Algo Trading Beat Manual Trading?
The question of "Does algo trading beat manual trading" is a matter of debate. The effectiveness of each trading method depends on various factors, such as the trader's skills and experience, the nature of the market, and the specific strategy used. Some traders may find success with robotics systems due to their speed and accuracy, while others might prefer the control and adaptability offered by manual solutions.
In the world of manual trading vs automated trading in forex, it's essential to consider that FX markets are highly volatile and operate 24/7. This nature of forex markets makes them ideal for automated investing. However, the use of automated systems in FX also requires careful consideration of factors such as market volatility, liquidity, and technical glitches.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the choice between manual and automated investment boils down to personal preference, goals, risk tolerance, and technical expertise. Both methods have their own merits and challenges, and understanding these may help traders make informed decisions.
Whether you are interested in manual or automated trading, platforms like FXOpen provide a robust and user-friendly environment for both.
To get started on your investment journey, you can open an FXOpen account. Regardless of your trading method, remember that success requires a well-developed strategy, continuous learning, and effective risk management. So, keep learning, keep improving, and happy trading!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
