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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY – in accumulation phase but undoubtedly bullish .. 13 JanWeekly – Bullish, although it has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. Daily – same as weekly. Please note that the bears have been unable to push price lower. Price is well above the 200dma. The area around 156.20 was has been tested multiple times and provides solid support (was resistance earlier). H4 – In line with the weekly and daily charts. A pullback to 156.20 and a bullish bounce there would be ideal, however that may not happen. We could see bullish price action even earlier. I will be monitoring PA closely and look for taking an entry whenever I see convincing bullish strength. An obvious target would be the next resistance in the 161.70 region. This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Long
by Trading_Vista
USDJPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 158.40 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 157.58 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
From Signals to Strategy: ** Common Misconceptions**Hey, just putting this out there – here are some popular misconceptions that traders believe and risk to limit their growth and profitability in the beginning. To begin with, indicators can guide your decisions indeed, but without a solid market understanding, good RISK MANAGEMENT, and a clear strategy, they really won’t do much for you. 🔄A strategy suits each person differently: Much like a dress 👗 tailored to fit an individual’s unique shape and style. What works for one trader might not work for another, and that's why it's essential to find a strategy that aligns with your personality, risk tolerance, and long term objectives. And I also learned that sometimes simpler is better. Apply the KISS rule 💋: "Keep it simple, stupid! " Seriously, why complicate things? Focus on what works and cut out the noise. And in some cases, having multiple indicators is just NOISE. I also had some misconceptions in the beginning, because everywhere I searched—on forums, trading platforms, and YouTube tutorials—there were promises of indicators that could do all the complex analysis for me. And somehow, since “beginners luck is REAL- at first, it seemed to work. A “BUY” signal here, a “SELL” signal there, and I managed to scrape together a few wins. 😌 But that luck didn’t last long and as I studied some more it became clearer to me that indicators are just tools, not guarantees. They can guide your decisions, but they cannot replace a solid understanding of the market, risk management, and context. So, I started experimenting with certain indicators, using them to complement—not replace—my understanding of the market. For instance, instead of blindly following a “BUY” signal, I began to ask questions: • Is the market trending or ranging? • Does this signal align with key support or resistance levels? • What does the overall sentiment (news, volume, momentum) suggest? And so with a few more adjustments, trading became less about relying on indicators and more about developing a structured, disciplined approach. Now, I actually think that those early struggles helped shape my understanding and approach to trading. Progress doesn’t come from relying on shortcuts but from BUILDING A FOUNDATION of understanding, discipline, and adaptability. Here are some more Common Misconceptions you too probably had along the way: 1. 🛑 Misconception number 1 : More Indicators = Better Results 🤑 It’s tempting to think that layering as many indicators as possible will lead to a perfect trading system, but this approach often results in confusion and conflicting signals. Many indicators are derivatives of price and volume and may provide redundant information, and can even lead to "analysis paralysis." It’s like having so many tabs open on your browser that you forget what you were trying to do in the first place!" 😅 Explanation: For example, using RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Stochastics together may seem like a good idea since both are momentum indicators. However, they measure similar things and may not add unique value. Overloading your chart can also obscure price action, which remains the most critical piece of information. 📉 A more effective approach is to select complementary indicators, such as combining a momentum indicator (RSI) with a trend-following indicator (e.g., Moving Average) or a volume-based indicator (e.g., OBV or MFI). This combination provides a broader perspective without overcomplicating the analysis. 2. 🛑 Misconception number 2: Indicators anticipate future trends Indicators only reflect historical data and help interpret current market conditions. Explanation: Indicators like moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands use past prices to calculate their values. For example, a MACD crossover might suggest a potential trend change, but it doesn’t guarantee future direction. Markets are influenced by countless variables (news, sentiment, macroeconomics) that indicators cannot account for. To trade effectively, you must understand that indicators are tools for assessing probabilities, not certainties. Instead, combining indicator signals with context—like support/resistance zones or fundamental analysis—creates a more reliable framework and can give you to better results. 3. 🛑 Misconception nr. 3 Indicators Work the Same in All Market Conditions Indicators behave differently in trending markets versus ranging markets, and their effectiveness varies based on market conditions. Explanation: For example, Moving Averages and MACD perform well in trending markets but can give false signals in a ranging market. On the other hand, oscillators like RSI and Stochastics are more effective in range conditions, identifying overbought/oversold price levels. The key is adapting your strategy to the current market trend. Tools like the Average True Range (ATR) can help evaluate market volatility, giving you clues on which type of indicator might be most effective. 4. 🛑 Misconception nr. 4 Indicators Alone Are Enough to Be Profitable Indicators are not a substitute for a comprehensive trading plan that includes risk management, market knowledge, and emotional discipline. Explanation: Even the best indicator setups can fail due to market unpredictability. For instance, a perfect RSI signal can be invalidated by a major news event. Without proper risk management—like setting stop-loss levels—you could take successive losses. Profitable traders use indicators as PART of an inclusive, well defined approach that includes ** position sizing** 🔒 ** understanding market structure **💡 ** Controlling emotional responses during trades and after trades ** ⚖️ 5. 🛑 Misconception nr. 5 You Must Use Indicators to Succeed While indicators are useful, they are not mandatory for successful trading. Some traders rely solely on price action, volume, and market structure. Explanation: Price action traders use patterns like candlestick formations, support/resistance zones, and trendlines to make decisions. For example, identifying a double-bottom pattern at a key support level can be just as effective as using RSI to spot oversold conditions. Indicators can add value, but they are not essential. It’s more important to find a trading style that suits your personality and ALIGNS with your understanding of the market. Misconception nr. 5: A Custom Indicator Will Give You an Edge Custom indicators can provide insights, but they are not they can’t guarantee profitability. Explanation: There are Indicators that combine multiple data points to create a unique signal, but their success still depends on the underlying market conditions and the trader's ability to interpret them. Often, the “edge” comes from the trader’s discipline and consistency rather than the tool itself. 💡 Back-testing custom indicators on various pairs and timeframes can show their limitations and help you identify where they perform best. Always TEST, TEST, TEST. Best to do that on 6-or more months. Don’t give up if you struggle, struggle becomes growth 💪. YOU CAN and YOU WILL become profitable if you push through the phases at your own pace. Thank you for the read.
Education
by TrendDiva
USD/JPY BULLISH TREND LETS SEE🚨 USD/JPY Update – Bullish Outlook 🚨 Traders, USD/JPY is showing strong bullish potential! Here’s the breakdown: 🔑 Bullish Zone: We’re looking for a bullish move if the price reaches 158.10. This could be a great entry point for the upside momentum. 📈 Technical Target: The main target for USD/JPY is 161.00, where we anticipate significant resistance. Keep an eye on this level for possible take-profit or further opportunities. 🔒 Support Zone: The immediate support is at 157.50, a key level where the price could potentially bounce if there's a pullback. 🔼 Resistance Zone: Watch out for 159.00 as it may act as the next hurdle before heading towards our target.
Long
by ALBERTGOLDHUNTER
14
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 10, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen is weakened by doubts over the likely timing of the next BoJ rate hike. The US Dollar holds near a two-year high and supports USD/JPY ahead of the US NFP report. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is rising in response to comments from Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa during the Asian session on Friday, although it lacks bullish confidence amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. Data released today showed that real household spending in Japan fell for a fourth month in November, indicating that the economy is fragile. This gives the BoJ another reason to be cautious about further interest rate hikes, which could continue to undermine the yen. In addition, the yield differential between US and Japanese bond yields has widened significantly over the past month amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) tightening bias. This could help push down Japanese Yen yields and serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair amid a bullish trend for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, traders may prefer to stay on the sidelines and wait for the release of the important US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before making aggressive directional bets on the currency pair. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 158.60, trading mainly with Buy orders
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY Analysis Here's a bullish channel setup on USDJPY! The pair is respecting the ascending trendline, and we’re seeing signs of potential upside movement. 🚀 🎯 Targets: Take Profit 1: 158.451 Take Profit 2: 158.825 Take Profit 3: 159.154 📉 Stop Loss: 157.582 (below the channel support). The pair is currently trading near the channel’s lower boundary, offering a great risk-to-reward ratio. Keep an eye on this one—it could deliver solid gains! 💰 Let’s see how this plays out! 💹
Long
by Charts_M7M
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns wit the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 158.31 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 158.77 Why we like it: There is a resistance level at the 100% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 157.66 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY ANALYSIS IS READY TO FLY MUST READ THE CAPTION The chart for USD/JPY shows the following: 1. Timeframe: 1-hour chart. 2. Key Levels: Target Zone: Around 159.100, indicating a potential bullish target. Current Price: Approximately 157.933 (Sell) and 157.946 (Buy). Stop Loss: Positioned near 157.226 to manage downside risk. 3. Technical Analysis: Pattern: A potential rounding top or consolidation phase before a breakout. Scenarios: Two possible bullish outcomes are shown with arrows: A breakout above the resistance zone, aiming for the target zone (159.100). A retracement followed by a bullish move. Key Support Levels: 157.692 and below, which could act as critical zones to watch. 4. Moving Average: A moving average (possibly the 200 EMA) provides additional support near the stop-loss level. 5. Trading Idea: Buy opportunities are highlighted with strict risk management via the stop-loss placement. The chart suggests bullish momentum but emphasizes careful monitoring of price action near key levels.
Short
by Forex_Vip_Signals
Dollar-yen hovers around six-month highsAs with euro-dollar, the main fundamental factor recently for dollar-yen has been monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s recent moderate hawkishness seems more questionable now with real annual wages having fallen recently while the Fed seems to be confirmed to cut only twice this year. The break above ¥158 in the last few days hasn’t led to a clear breakout but a small retracement lower. In the context of the slow stochastic having signalled overbought consistently for nearly a month now, that might suggest that consolidation or possibly losses are more likely than another immediate movement upward. ATR has been extremely low recently, which could also signal a change of direction. Within the wide channel between ¥161 and ¥150 there’s considerable scope for movement around important upcoming data from the USA. A more positive NFP would usually suggest higher inflation also, but there are exceptions to this. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness