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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY Bullish Cross on 1W MACD will push it higher.The USDJPY pair is having an excellent bullish run since our September 25 buy signal (see chart below), which was right at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up: We're approaching our 161.800 long-term Target much faster than we expected but we've identified this time a short-term opportunity that can go along with the long-term one. We are past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and when the previous Bullish Leg formed one on Aptil 14 2023, the price (which was already within a Channel Up) didn't stop the uptrend. On the contrary it extended it up until a little after a 1D Golden Cross was formed. As a result we can target additionally 160.000 within a 2-month time-frame. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDJPY - Will the yen continue to weaken?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. John Thune, the senator from South Dakota, has been elected as the Republican Senate Majority Leader. This election received broad support from Trump-aligned Republicans, though some factions within the GOP, particularly the far-right, were less welcoming of the choice. In this race, Thune faced competition from John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, although Scott was not seen as a significant threat. Thune ultimately won in a direct, closed-ballot vote against Cornyn, securing the Senate leadership position. Moody’s has announced that financial risks concerning the United States’ fiscal strength have escalated. In a statement, Moody’s highlighted the outlook on U.S. national debt, identifying the “decisive victory of Republicans” as a specific risk factor. Moody’s stated, “In the absence of policy measures to curb the budget deficit, federal fiscal strength will deteriorate, increasingly impacting the U.S. sovereign credit profile.” Given the fiscal policies promised by Trump during his election campaign—and the high likelihood of their passage due to the shift in Congress—U.S. fiscal strength-related risks have increased. While Trump’s victory has been seen as positive for certain risk assets, it has had negative implications for bonds. Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan official indicated that Japan is not currently in need of extensive financial support, allowing the central bank to resume interest rate hikes after a brief pause to assess U.S. economic developments. Another Bank of Japan member warned that raising rates could cause market shocks, disrupting the normalization path of Japan’s monetary policies, as the divergence in policy directions between the U.S. and Japan could heighten foreign exchange market volatility. Additionally, one member emphasized the need to be prepared for potential market fluctuations due to the U.S. presidential election results.
Long
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Fresh Trend20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Your interest motivates me: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: Only after my initial post on this pair, I realized I arrived at the game after half time. JoeChampion did an interesting post on the DXY (INDEX) which got me focused on a fresh 2HR trend, birthed from a series of high time frame "IGNITION" candles so to speak. I forgot how fiercely this pair is trending, mirroring and respecting the FIB on high TF's. Keynote: I believe if price stays above confluence area @ 154.450 the trajectory = 160. Bold statement I know... Shout out to JoeChampion, Thanx buddy! I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
Long
by ANROC
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dovish USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dovish Fed and Safe-Haven Demand for Yen 14/11/2024 Introduction Today’s outlook for USDJPY suggests a slight bearish bias, driven by key factors favoring the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). A cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, global uncertainty driving safe-haven demand for the yen, and stable policy signals from the Bank of Japan are all putting downward pressure on USDJPY. This article provides an in-depth look at the fundamental drivers shaping the USDJPY trend today, offering valuable insights for traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve and Softening U.S. Dollar Recent U.S. economic data, including moderate inflation figures and stable but unspectacular labor market performance, have led the Federal Reserve to signal a possible hold on further rate hikes. This dovish shift is weakening the U.S. dollar, as traders expect the Fed to be cautious in adjusting rates in the near term. A softer dollar environment supports a bearish trend for USDJPY, as it reduces USD appeal against other currencies. 2. Increased Safe-Haven Demand Boosting Yen The Japanese yen is traditionally regarded as a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of global economic uncertainty. With ongoing concerns in some international markets, demand for the yen has increased as investors look for stability. This shift in risk sentiment supports a bearish USDJPY outlook, as the yen’s appeal as a secure asset rises. 3. Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Policy Stability While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has largely maintained its dovish policy approach, recent signals suggest it may adjust if inflation shows sustainable improvement. Even the slight possibility of a shift has bolstered confidence in the yen. By holding steady and keeping an eye on inflation targets, the BoJ has supported the JPY’s position, which creates additional downward pressure on USDJPY. 4. Technical Indicators Pointing to a Bearish Trend USDJPY is approaching resistance levels that have proven challenging in previous sessions, and the pair is trading below its 50-day moving average, which typically signals a downtrend. Key indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are also showing bearish signals, supporting the expectation of a slight bearish bias today. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating that downward momentum is intact. The RSI is trending lower but not yet oversold, which implies that there is room for further downside movement. MACD and Volume Analysis The MACD has produced a bearish crossover, a sign of potential downward continuation. Volume analysis also indicates growing selling interest, aligning with today’s bearish bias for USDJPY. --- Conclusion With a dovish Fed reducing the USD’s appeal, safe-haven demand for the yen, and technical indicators signaling downside potential, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should monitor key economic developments and risk sentiment indicators to gauge further market direction. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDWeakness - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Intraday Trading SuccessAs a trader, I've developed my edge mostly by combining price action momentum, risk and asset sentiment, and currency strength for intraday trading success. Here's how it works: 1️⃣ Price Action Momentum: By analyzing chart patterns, candlestick formations, price structure and trend dynamics, I can spot price action momentum. These observations reveal preferable intraday direction for high-probability trades. 2️⃣ Gauging Risk Sentiment: Keeping a keen eye on market sentiment helps me understand the broader risk appetite and the tone for any specific currency that session. Risk-on or risk-off sentiment impacts forex pairs differently, also guiding my trade selection. 3️⃣ Currency Strength Analysis: I assess currency strength using various tools like currency strength meters (available for free all over the place) and relative sentiment strength. Strong currencies are paired with weak ones for optimal intraday trend trades and being on the lookout for any divergence from baseline sentiment provides great mean reversion opportunities too. 4️⃣ Confluence of Factors: I look for confluence, where price action momentum aligns with favorable sentiment and robust currency strength. This trifecta enhances trade confidence and conviction. Then it's all about the right technical entries. 5️⃣ Timeframe Synergy: I try to ensure harmony between short-term and higher timeframe trends when selecting a preferred bias. My intraday setups align with the broader market direction for more robust trades but the time horizon for the trade idea still dictates what timeframe data I give more weight to. 6️⃣ Gains Optimization: By utilizing damage control techniques and setting realistic take-profit levels based on price action and key support/resistance zones, I optimize gains expectancy for better risk management. Risk-reward is another mainstream cookie-cutter influencer-regurgitated pile of dung I have never paid attention to in over 10 years of successful trading; we have gains potential and risk management and as long as these line up according to your rule-set, the RR means nada de nada. 7️⃣ Continuous Learning: I remain a student and continuously learn from my trades and market developments. Adapting to changing conditions is vital for sustainable trading success. Combining price action momentum, sentiment, and currency strength has transformed my intraday trading game over the years. This approach allows me to spot high-probability setups, manage risk, and ride markets.
Education
by AlexSoro
2
USD/JPY Long Long on USD/JPY after a retracement from 50% level of fib, and with the bullish trend , I am expecting the liquidity to be cleared , 1R:3R trade idea with price rejecting from FVG created with trump won last week. Disclaimer: The ideas and strategies presented here are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, and you should carefully consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making any decisions. I am not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of following or acting on these ideas. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research (DYOR).
Long
by Singh_DayTrader
1
USDJPY H4 | Bearish drop?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 155.78, which is a pullback resistance close to 161.8% Fibonacci extension Our take profit will be at 154.68, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be at 157.68, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
The yen continued to lose value as the dollar strengthened The Japanese yen has dropped to its lowest since late July due to the dollar's strength. Concerns about rising US inflation following Trump's election have diminished the likelihood of the Fed’s further rate cuts. However, if the yen's decline continues, the BoJ may consider intervening in the FX rate and could become more inclined to raise interest rates. Reflecting this situation, Japan's five-year government bond yields have reached a 15-year high as the chances of a BoJ rate hike increase. USDJPY sustained its uptrend and advanced to 155.70. The price is approaching the ascending channel’s upper bound, maintaining bullish momentum. If USDJPY breaches the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward 157.50, the highest since last July. Conversely, if USDJPY fails to hold above EMA21, the price may fall further to 153.10, where EMA78 coincides.
by inkicho_exness
USDJPY - Buy opportunitiesFundamental Analysis & Market Sentiments USD * Trump wins the Presidential Election. Economists said that the proposed tariff will likely cause inflation uncertainties. FED more likely will not be more aggressive by cutting its Interest rates. This can cause to dollar be more attractive than the other currencies. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- JPY * The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its October meeting. BOJ more likely hold its interest rate hiking until next Year.
Long
by ttf-funda
1
USD/JPY may rise 88 - 131 pipsOur pivot point is at 154.93. Our preference The upside prevails as long as 154.93 is support. Alternative scenario The downside breakout of 154.93 would call for 154.21 and 153.78. Comment The RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 155.12 and 154.94). Supports and resistances 157.72 ** 157.29 * 156.86 ** 156.43 155.55 last 155.21 154.93 ** 154.21 * 153.78 ** Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Long
by Daniel_Thompson