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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY Mean Reversion Kumo Bounce (15 Minutes Time Frame)Looking at the chart on USDJPY, price has came back to the Ichimoku cloud(kumo) and I am expecting price to bounce off the Kumo, however, I would need some confirmation on the 3 Minutes Time Frame. The Signal I am looking for is that price would move with Higher Highs and Higher Lows. To keep things simple, I would think that entering on the 15 Minutes Time Frame would be best, even though we are looking at the 3 Minutes Time Frame for confirmation of trend reversal. I have been testing mean reversion strategies out and reflecting on how the currency market differs from the stock market. Some conclusions I made is that, unless if one side of the currency is severely depleting of it's resources or have some serious policy issues (Think JPY carry trade from 2016 to 2024), otherwise, the price would always come back to somewhere in the middle (reasonable price between the two currencies that). Example would be Sing Dollar against Malaysian Ringgit. When Singapore separated from Malaysia back in 1965 (I wasn't born yet), until 2 decades or so ago, the exchange rate was somewhat 1 to 1. But today, the price sits at about 1 to 3.2ish. The Malaysian Ringgit has been backsliding against the Singapore Dollar even with their huge population as human resource as well as their export industries. Reason being, they have terrible decision making methods that set the policy of the country. However, the Malaysian Ringgit has been quite stable even with the currency strength decline, and the people manage, somehow to continue living, by working in Singapore and exchanging SGD for MYR. It is like a ship. Even during storms where the waves are 10 stories tall, the ship manages to right itself and prevent the ship from capsizing. Just like the people of Malaysia who make things work for them when the tough gets going. What I wanna say is that, the mean value of the products will adjust itself and prevent a capsize from occuring. Just like the forex market. Unless if the ship has some big hole or damage that causes water to seep into the ship. And that is why the forex market ranges most of the time, because they (government, institutions, banks, traders, citizens) right themselves through various methods, to prevent a landslide in their currency which will in turn affect their commoners' lives.
Long
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
Bullish Outlook on USD/JPY: Strong USD and Market OptimismFollowing my previous analysis, I believe USD/JPY has strong bullish potential. With Trump’s election win and renewed market optimism, we’re seeing increased confidence in the USD. As risk appetite grows, investors are moving away from safe havens like gold, which has been losing momentum, and are putting their money back into the markets. This shift, combined with expectations for a stronger dollar, could create a solid uptrend for USD/JPY. As the USD strengthens, we might see higher highs in this pair in the near term.
Long
by Charts_M7M
USDJPY: Asian indices bearish and U.S. concernsJapan's Nikkei 225 index closed with a loss of 1.55% on Wednesday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar against the yen (USD/JPY), which gained 0.38% on the session. This movement in the currency market reflects a growing preference for the dollar as a safe haven, driven by expectations of expansionary fiscal policies in the U.S. following the re-election of Donald Trump. Impact of USD/JPY Strength on Asian Markets. The rising USD/JPY, which continues to strengthen against the yen, directly affects Japanese exports, increasing export costs and reducing the competitiveness of Japanese companies in global markets. This is particularly relevant in sectors such as transportation equipment and trade, which suffered the biggest falls on the Tokyo stock exchange amid this volatile exchange rate situation. The US dollar also strengthened against the yen, pushing the USD/JPY to a three-month high. The rise particularly affected Asian markets, which see rising yields and U.S. inflation as key factors that could cause the Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of monetary easing. The Nikkei 225 was not the only index affected in Asia, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng and other regional indices also recorded declines, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the markets. In parallel, the US dollar futures index strengthened by 0.04% to 105.99, while the Nikkei volatility index showed a decline of 5.38%, suggesting a slight reduction in implied volatility. Looking at the chart, the USDJPY has recovered much of its decline that began on July 11 through mid-September. This recovery has continued, recovering almost its value of 155,018 yen per dollar. It is currently very close to the checkpoint (POC) in the 157,000 yen area. RSI currently stands at 65.77%, so we are currently in a low zone of the long term channel so the extension does not seem to want to advance much further. Given so much current downward pressure, it is possible that the strength of the dollar, the thesis is that in the short term very possibly the Bank of Japan should take measures to control that undervalued yen, since a strong dollar seems to be affecting very negatively the Japanese market, so the target ceiling for Japan should not exceed 158.00 0 yen to avoid further damage to its economy. Influence of Treasury Bonds and Inflation Expectations. U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly since Donald Trump's re-election, reaching levels not seen since July, driven by expectations of policies that could increase the fiscal deficit through higher spending and tax cuts. This rise in yields puts pressure on stocks as investors recalculate valuations on the prospect of higher long-term interest rates. Deeper deficit spending strangles equity valuations as risk-free rates rise. As the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its vigilant stance, investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. inflation data to assess potential monetary policy adjustments. Gold and Bitcoin as a Refuge Amid market volatility, gold was up 0.15% on the day, trading around $2,612 an ounce, while Bitcoin recently hit a new all-time high near $90,000 before taking a breather in Wednesday's session, trading around $87,295. Markets have an expectation that bitcoin could reach $120,000 without corrections, especially aided by stimulus from China, which could support this momentum. Trump's proposed policies, which seek to make the United States the largest holder of cryptocurrencies on the planet and thus pay off its national debt with them, turning the country into “the cryptocurrency capital of the world” have generated optimism in the cryptocurrency sector, which anticipates a more flexible and favorable regulatory environment for the development of the digital market. In such a context, major investors such as Warren Buffet accumulate liquid assets by avoiding the stock market. Crude Crude oil for December delivery was up 0.15% at $68.22 per barrel, while gold futures for December delivery were up 0.23% at $2,612.30 per ounce. In currencies, USD/JPY rose 0.28% to 155.03 yen. Conclusion The combination of a strengthening dollar, a weakening yen and rising US Treasury yields has pressured Asian markets, with the Nikkei 225 down. Investors continue to watch USD/JPY and US inflation data, looking for opportunities in safe-haven assets and adjusting strategies ahead of the possible consequences of a more expansionary fiscal environment in the US. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Short
by ActivTrades
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dollar USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dollar Weakness and Yen Strength 13/11/2024 Introduction The outlook for USDJPY today points toward a slight bearish bias, driven by factors that favor the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). As recent U.S. economic data moderates expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and with the yen drawing safe-haven interest, USDJPY could experience downward pressure. This article provides a brief analysis of key drivers influencing USDJPY, offering valuable insights for forex traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Weaker U.S. Dollar Amid Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook Recent U.S. economic data, including softer inflation readings and mixed labor market performance, has dampened expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. With inflation pressures appearing to ease, the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, reducing the appeal of the USD. A softer dollar generally favors a bearish USDJPY trend, especially as the yen gains safe-haven demand. 2. Potential Yen Strength from Safe-Haven Demand The Japanese yen traditionally serves as a safe-haven currency, attracting demand during periods of global uncertainty. With mixed economic outlooks in major global markets, investor risk aversion has increased, contributing to yen demand. This rise in safe-haven sentiment provides bearish momentum for USDJPY, especially as traders shift toward lower-risk assets. 3. Bank of Japan’s Stable Policy Adds Support for Yen While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its dovish monetary stance, recent statements suggest it could adjust its policies if inflation shows sustained improvement. The prospect of a potential policy shift boosts confidence in the yen, supporting a slight bearish trend in USDJPY. The yen’s stability underpins its appeal as an alternative to a softer dollar in today’s market conditions. 4. Technical Indicators Signaling Downward Momentum Technically, USDJPY is approaching resistance levels that have previously capped upward movements. The pair is trading below its 50-day moving average, which often signals a bearish trend. Both the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) show signs of downward pressure, further supporting the bearish bias in USDJPY today. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY remains below its 50-day moving average, a key bearish indicator that suggests continued downward movement. The RSI is trending lower, indicating building selling pressure without reaching oversold conditions, reinforcing a bearish bias. MACD and Volume Trends The MACD is showing a bearish crossover, supporting expectations for further declines. Volume trends reflect an increase in selling activity, aligning with today’s slight bearish outlook for USDJPY. --- Conclusion With U.S. dollar softness, safe-haven demand for the yen, and technical indicators favoring downside potential, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should watch for any significant changes in global risk sentiment and U.S. economic data that could impact the pair’s direction. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDWeakness - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
1
Trump Win Could Spur BOJ Rate Hike if Yen Weakens Further Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is adding new uncertainties for the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The yen's recent slide against the dollar has raised concerns that a further drop—potentially hitting a key 160 yen per dollar level—could prompt the BOJ to hike rates sooner than expected. Former BOJ executive Kazuo Momma suggests that rapid yen depreciation is one of the few triggers for an early rate move. For now, a January rate hike is seen as plausible, but Japan's political climate and economic stability remain critical factors in timing. The BOJ is set to weigh these variables closely ahead of its mid-December policy meeting, where no surprises are expected if a move is communicated in advance. Source: Insights based on Bloomberg's reporting by Toru Fujioka.
by Eleazarahmath
USD/JPY: Ready to Break 154.8 and Push to New HighsExpectations around Trump's import tariffs are supporting U.S. bond yields, strengthening the USD and continuing to pressure JPY. The recent depreciation of JPY could lead to potential intervention from the Japanese government, preventing further short-selling ahead of the U.S. consumer inflation data release. Looking at the price chart, the USD/JPY pair has maintained a steady uptrend for an extended period, reflecting the strength of the USD relative to JPY. Recently, the pair has broken through significant resistance levels and continues to set new highs, reinforcing the current bullish trend. In the short term, there is a strong possibility that the pair could break the 154.8 resistance level. This level is currently a key point of resistance, but given the current upward momentum, the price is likely to surpass it and continue rising. An additional factor supporting this potential move is the upward-sloping trendline, which remains intact and indicates that the bullish trend is being sustained. With these factors in mind, it is reasonable to expect the USD/JPY pair to continue its upward trend in the near term, particularly if the 154.8 resistance level is broken. The stable uptrend and solid support from the trendline suggest that the price has the potential to continue rising, opening up opportunities for new highs.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 155.700, which is a pullback resistance and a 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our take profit will be at 153.72, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be at 15.65, above 161.8% Fibo extension High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
2
USDJPY - Long, A Closer Look 20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Your interest motivates me: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: Speculative USD Longs will persist to respect the trend in the short term. Any hint of red corrections offers up buying opportunities. If the current resistance can force a correction, we could be treated to fresh long opportunities in the short term. CPI Data release today, possible high volatility ahead! Keynote: The most important to consider always, before you leap: When you jump in the river, make sure you are "WITH" the current. I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
Long
by ANROC