USD-JPY Local Short! Sell! Hello,Traders! USD-JPY is trading in a Downtrend and the pair Is about to retest the Horizontal resistance Of 147.000 from where We will be expecting A further bearish Continuation Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too!Shortby TopTradingSignals222
UJ Long If it comes back to daily close, seeing potential for a long fill, despite the heavy YEN flows, some relief can still push back dramatically when the move is this extended. Entry at daily closeLongby Iboltax114
USD/JPYSelling because price is in a clear downtrend, price has come up to the the trendline for the 3-4th time to a good area for a sell and continue on the downtrend. Shortby bogdangrymut1
USD/JPY For Bearish after finish its pull-backwait for finish pull-back wave and go short - General Trend is Down - Price will make pull-back at range 50:61 fibo level @ red arrow have fun :)Shortby maxbayne1
Second sho(r)t at USDJPYShorting this bear flag breakout to the downside. USDJPY needed a retracement, and the bull flag was it. Price action confirmed the move down at London open.Shortby gunhy5
USDJPY Possible Short Position BBMA OA ReEntry Zone Zero Loss4H - Re-Entry 1H - 50 EMA Rejection + Bollinger Band Rejection 15m - Entry in MAHI Note: * Cancel trade or cut-loss when candle close Above MAHI (2 Green Color Lines) in 4H and wait for possible reentry again * 1:3 RRR * TAYOR A combination of multiple moving averages and Bollinger Bands is the BBMA OMA Ally strategy. It provides an extensive and reliable examination of market trends and patterns by utilizing the strength of both indicators. It is a multi-time frame analysis I am using the BBMA OA Reentry Zone Zero Loss Strategy as a basic reaction to recent market events, rather than attempting to forecast the market's future courseShortby GreggiBond1
USDJPY InsightHello, dear subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Last week, the U.S. employment indicators released showed shock-level results, confirming that the job market is cooling down. Some interpret this as an ongoing economic recession, with calls for rapid changes in the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy. Expectations for a 50bp rate cut in the upcoming September FOMC meeting are growing, and there are even projections for a 125bp rate cut by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at its last monetary policy meeting. This has led to a reversal in yen carry trades, resulting in increased volatility for the yen. - August 6: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision - August 9: Germany July Consumer Price Index announcement - August 13: U.S. July Producer Price Index announcement - August 14: UK July Consumer Price Index and U.S. July Consumer Price Index announcements - August 15: Japan Q2 GDP announcement The USD/JPY pair has seen a sharp decline, breaking its trend. Although a short-term rebound might occur due to the rapid drop, the downward trend appears to remain intact, with the current low point expected to be around the 140 level. A rebound might take the pair back to the 150 level, but in the long term, it is anticipated to fall below the 140 level and form a bottom around the 130 level. If movements differ from expectations, we will quickly revise our strategy.by shawntime_academy3
USD/JPY 1-Hour Chart A clear break above the upper resistance line could signal a potential bullish reversal. However, a sustained move below the lower support could indicate further downside momentum. NOTE: This is a general description based on the current chart pattern. Technical analysis should be used in conjunction with other factors before making any trading decisions. Share your thoughts..Longby abdulrahman9922
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 146.61 1st Support: 141.84 1st Resistance: 149.41 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.Shortby ICmarkets7
USDJPY Buying OpportunityWe had a reaction from a weekly demand level, looking for confirmations on lower timeframe to go long to supply zone. www.myfxbook.comLongby Catchingpips_4414
USD/JPY Day Trading analysisOn USD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 148.850. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade. Happy trading, Daleby Trader_Dale5
Evolution of JPY:How BOJ Policies & Global Events Influence YENUSD/JPY Dynamics: A Historical and Policy-Driven Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Impact Historical Context and Market Reactions The COVID-19 pandemic led to some of the most extreme market reactions in recent history. During this period, global bond yields spiked in a highly risk-off environment, defying expectations that they would fall as investors sought safe havens. This prompted the Federal Reserve to implement unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE), including daily purchases of $300 billion in bonds. The market chaos highlighted the extent of leverage in supposedly liquid trades. Post-COVID , zero interest rates spurred significant equity market gains until inflation concerns and subsequent rate hikes caused a market correction. It was expected that higher borrowing rates would reduce excessive leverage, but the heavily crowded yen carry trade suggested otherwise. Yen borrowing was extensive and leveraged, flowing into the Japanese market due to minimal currency risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) System The Bank of Japan (BOJ), established in 1882, serves as the central bank of Japan. Its primary roles include issuing currency, implementing monetary policy, and maintaining financial stability. The BOJ’s policies and actions significantly impact the yen’s value and the broader Japanese economy. Key Functions of the BOJ: 1. Monetary Policy: The BOJ's primary tool for influencing the economy is its monetary policy. This includes setting interest rates and engaging in open market operations to control the money supply. The BOJ's main policy goals are to achieve price stability and economic growth. 2. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE): Introduced in 2013 under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, QQE aimed to combat deflation and stimulate the economy by purchasing government bonds and other assets, thus increasing the monetary base. 3. Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implemented in 2016, the BOJ introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves held by financial institutions at the bank. This policy aimed to encourage lending and investment by making it costly for banks to hold excess reserves. 4. Yield Curve Control (YCC): In 2016, the BOJ introduced YCC, targeting a zero percent yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to control the shape of the yield curve and maintain low-interest rates across different maturities. Recent Economic Developments Japanese Yen Strength: - Recently, the yen extended its rally to above 146.50 against the US dollar, its strongest level since March. This was driven by diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the BOJ. - Weak US jobs data have increased expectations for further Fed rate cuts, contributing to a weaker dollar. BOJ Rate Hike: - The BOJ raised its interest rate to a 16-year high of 0.25% and signaled the possibility of future increases if economic conditions warrant. This move surprised many economists. Government Intervention: - In July, Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen to support the currency through intervention. The government expressed concerns that a weaker yen could erode household purchasing power by pushing inflation higher than wage growth. Impact on Financial Markets Japanese Market: - The yen’s strength and BOJ’s policy adjustments have significantly influenced Japanese financial markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell by about 6%, closing the week at 35,909.70. This was one of the worst performances since March 2020 when the index fell below 36,000. Bond yields also dropped, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 1%, its lowest level in two months. Global Markets: - Global financial markets, including US markets, have been affected by recession fears and weak economic indicators. The Nasdaq Composite has slid into correction territory, reflecting broader market concerns. Conclusion The interplay between BOJ policies and global economic conditions continues to shape the USD/JPY dynamics. The BOJ’s commitment to maintaining low interest rates and engaging in extensive bond purchases influences the yen's value and the broader Japanese economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and traders navigating the complex landscape of forex markets. USD/JPY Historical Movements and Influential Events on JPY Historical Movements of the JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by various historical and economic events. Here are some notable periods and their impacts: 1. Introduction and Early Years (1871 - 1882): - The yen was introduced in 1871 as a modern currency, replacing the diverse local currencies issued by feudal regions. - In 1882, the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centralized control over the currency, standardizing and stabilizing the yen. 2. Post-WWII Era (1945 - 1971): - After WWII, the yen was pegged to the US dollar at 360 yen per USD under the Bretton Woods system. This fixed rate helped stabilize the Japanese economy during its post-war recovery. - The peg was abandoned in 1971, and the yen became a free-floating currency. This shift led to significant volatility, with the yen reaching a high of 271 per USD in 1973. 3. 1980s Economic Boom and 1990s Asset Bubble Collapse: - During the 1980s, Japan's economy boomed, and the yen appreciated significantly. - The collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and deflation, with the BOJ adopting low interest rates to stimulate growth. 4. 2008 Financial Crisis: - The global financial crisis in 2008 saw the yen strengthen as investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened multiple times to prevent excessive appreciation. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - The pandemic caused economic disruptions globally, leading to significant yen volatility. Safe-haven inflows drove the yen's value up, while the BOJ's QE programs aimed to mitigate economic downturns. Key Events Influencing Strong Movements in JPY 1. 1985 Plaza Accord: - An agreement between the G5 nations to depreciate the US dollar relative to the yen and other currencies. This led to a rapid appreciation of the yen, causing significant adjustments in Japan’s economy. 2. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: - The crisis led to a flight to safety, with the yen initially strengthening before the BOJ intervened to stabilize the currency. 3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis: - The yen appreciated as global investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened to prevent excessive yen strength, which could hurt Japan's export-driven economy. 4. 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: - The natural disaster led to a sharp appreciation of the yen, prompting the BOJ and the Japanese government to intervene in the forex market to stabilize the currency. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - Safe-haven demand for the yen increased during the pandemic, but BOJ’s monetary policies, including extensive bond-buying and low interest rates, aimed to support the economy and stabilize the currency. Conclusion The Japanese yen has a rich history of significant fluctuations driven by both domestic policies and global events. The BOJ’s role in stabilizing the yen through various monetary policy tools has been crucial, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Understanding these historical movements and influential events is key for anyone looking to grasp the dynamics of the JPY in the forex market. Educationby SroshMayi4
USD/JPY: Non-Farm's Fallout as Panic Sets InThe fallout from Friday’s disappointing US non-farm payrolls has triggered a cascade of bearish momentum in USD/JPY, exacerbated by shifting monetary policies. As the global stock sell-off deepens and panic sets in, we take a closer look at USD/JPY, which stands as a barometer of broader market sentiment. USD/JPY Under Pressure USD/JPY has been driven lower by a combination of disappointing US economic data and shifting expectations regarding monetary policy. The latest non-farm payrolls report showed the US economy added just 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the anticipated 175,000. This weak labour market performance, coupled with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, has raised concerns about the resilience of the US economy. Additionally, weak manufacturing data and underwhelming earnings reports have further dampened investor sentiment, leading to increased selling pressure on the US Dollar. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent policy shift has provided support for the Japanese Yen. The BoJ unexpectedly raised interest rates to their highest level in 15 years, signalling a departure from its long-standing policy of monetary easing. This move has led to a strengthening of the Yen. The combination of weak US economic indicators and the BoJ's hawkish stance has intensified the bearish momentum behind USD/JPY, driving it lower as traders reassess the outlook for both economies. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY’s Bearish Momentum USD/JPY has fallen more than 12% from its July highs, slicing through its 200-day moving average. The sell-off has been characterised by a series of steepening price bars, indicating a sharp increase in bearish momentum. The pair is now testing the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the 2023 lows. This anchored VWAP level is significant as it reflects the average price paid by traders during the last major bull run. Just below the anchored VWAP is a key level of horizontal support formed by the December 2023 swing lows. This area is likely to attract attention from traders as it represents a historical level of buying interest. It is also worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved deep into oversold territory but has yet to show any signs of divergence. This suggests that while the pair is heavily sold, there is no immediate indication of a reversal, and the bearish momentum may continue in the near term. USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. by Capitalcom2
Japan Confirms Significant Currency InterventionJapan Confirms Currency Intervention Over the Past Month TOKYO—Japan spent 5.535 trillion yen ($36.23 billion) on currency intervention between June 27 and July 29, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. This confirms that Japan engaged in currency intervention again last month, following nearly Y10 trillion spent earlier this year. Market Volatility and Key Levels The price has reached a strong support line at 150.77 and is on the verge of breaking this barrier. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 150.770, potentially reaching 152.850. Bearish Scenario: The bearish trend is confirmed as long as the price remains below the pivot line at 149.870, targeting 148.830 and 147.830. There is also the possibility of a retest up to 150.77 before resuming the downward trend. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 149.870 - Resistance Levels: 150.770, 151.810, 152.840 - Support Levels: 148.850, 147.830, 146.400 Movement Range: The anticipated movement range is between the resistance at 152.850 and the support at 147.830. PREVIOUS IDEA: Shortby SroshMayiUpdated 2214
USDJPY ( BREAKOUT DESCENDING CHANNEL ) (4H)USDJPY HELLO TRADERS Tendency, the price is under down ward pressure , until trade below turning level at 144.502. Upward Zone : In order to see an increase, the price needs to break the turning level at 144.502 , to reach resistance levels (1) around 149.479 , then breaking resistance level (1) by open 4h candle above it indicates to reach of a resistance level (2) at 154.775 , then stabilizing above resistance level (2) indicates to reach of a resistance level (3) at 158.627 a strong resistance level selling have already in crease this level . Downward Zone: Provided until the prices trade below the turning level, it indicates a reach of the support level (1) at 140.377, then breaking this level with a 4h or 1h open candle below is likely to reach the support level (2) at 137.684 , this two level called support zone it is very strong zone because inside accumulation area . Corrective level :Price may make a correction at 144.502 , before dropping . TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 149.479 , 154.775 , 158.627 . SUPPORT LEVEL : 140.377 , 137.684 . Shortby ArinaKarayi5
Analysis of USD/JPY after the Monetary Policy Meetingwww.tradingview.com On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided at its Monetary Policy Meeting to raise the policy interest rate on the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%. This is the first rate hike since the March meeting, when the BOJ lifted its negative interest rate policy. Following this additional rate hike decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw accelerated dollar selling and yen buying after Governor Ueda's press conference. A Fibonacci analysis was conducted to forecast the future movements of the USD/JPY exchange rate, yielding the following results: • Low 140.252 yen - High 161.950 yen: 61.8% retracement at 148.541 yen • Low 127.220 yen - High 161.950 yen: 38.2% retracement at 148.683 yen The prices calculated from the above two Fibonacci analyses are very close, indicating that the support zone located around 148.541 yen to 148.683 yen is extremely thin. However, if this thin support zone manages to underpin the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate could rebound strongly to around 153.50 yen. by tf_methodUpdated 2
USDJPY continued its upward trajectory on MondayUSDJPY continued its upward trajectory on Monday, consolidating above the 156.00 handle. Should this momentum pick up later in the week, resistance appears at 158.00, followed by 160.00. It's important to exercise caution with any ascent towards these levels, considering the possibility of FX intervention by Japanese authorities to bolster the yen. Such a move could quickly send the pair into a tailspin. Alternatively, if selling pressure resurfaces and prompts the pair to reverse course, initial support is positioned at 154.65. While prices are expected to stabilize around this zone during a pullback, a breakdown could precipitate a swift decline toward 153.15. If weakness persists, attention could turn to trendline support and the 50-day simple moving average near 152.50. by Xayah_tradingUpdated 4
USDJPY is once again approaching the 160 levelJapanese officials recently intervened in the foreign exchange market as the USD/JPY exchange rate approached the 160 level. However, this time the upward movement has been more gradual and less volatile, prompting no action from Japanese officials. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading above 157.00 and has rebounded strongly off the 50-day SMA in early May. The issue of yen weakness is likely to persist due to the significant interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, supporting the carry trade. by Xayah_tradingUpdated 113
USDJPY forming a downtrendThe risk of Japan raising interest rates combined with recent suspected intervention in the foreign exchange market has supported the Yen's recovery. If US second quarter GDP and June PCE data are unimpressive then OANDA:USDJPY is expected to continue to decrease. Even though S&P Global announced on the same day that the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July rose to 55.0, the highest since April 2022, the market is still continuing to short USD/JPY ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. On the daily chart, since OANDA:USDJPY broke below the price channel and found bearish conditions taking price activity below the EMA21 and below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it has formed a trend channel. decreasing direction. In the short term, the fact that USD/JPY remains in the price channel and is below the 0.382% Fibonacci level shows that there is still room for price decline to continue towards 151.128, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel. and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, the short-term trend will still be downtrend, on the other hand if USD/JPY falls below and breaks below the 0.50% Fibonacci level, a new short-term bearish cycle will be in place. opens with further targets at 148.570. During the day, the bearish outlook for USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 151,875 – 151,128 Resistance: 153.119 – 153.685by Xayah_tradingUpdated 9
USDJPY trend, pay attention to BOJ decision this weekTraders are preparing for a series of market events this weekend, including policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, as well as Friday's jobs report. Six of the United States. The yen is recovering significantly mainly because of growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week and some official yen purchases by the Bank of Japan in recent weeks helped boost the yen. As for the US Dollar, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week, but will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in September. Although the FOMC will not meet in August, Fed Chairman Powell could take advantage of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bank presidents in late August to prepare for an interest rate cut. By then, there will be more inflation data and the July jobs report released for policymakers to consider the conditions for cutting interest rates in September. Judging from the current market atmosphere, although the yield gap between the United States and Japan is expected to narrow as a result, the long-term arbitrage advantage will not be easily eroded. Because after all, the US is still the force that dominates the fluctuations of the currency market. Once the US changes its attitude towards cutting interest rates, the Japanese Yen will face many obstacles on the way to reversing its decline. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to recover after receiving support from 151.875 and the recovery is temporarily limited by the technical point 154.734. It is worth noting that if USD/JPY manages to break the 154.734 level it will tend to approach the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level as the Relative Strength Index is bending upward from the oversold area, indicating room to trade. Price increases are very wide. Currently, the trend of USD/JPY is still noticed by the trend price channel and long-term pressure is noticed by EMA21. If it is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, the next target level will be around 151.875. Thus, the level of 154,734 will be an important technical point for the downtrend of USD/JPY in the short term so the levels to protect open positions should be placed behind this technical level. During the day, the trend of USD/JPY will be noticed again by the following prices. Support: 153,865 – 151,875 Resistance: 154,734 – 156,850by Xayah_tradingUpdated 4
USD/JPY SELL STOP @142.143Hi Traders apologies been quit busy previous week. we back on business as usually. Analysis taken from D1 scale down to H1 and 5minutes for entry Confirmation. Certified price action kingShortby Low-keyFXtrader2
USD/JPY Reaches Key Demand Zone: Is a Bullish Reversal Imminent?The Japanese Yen (JPY) has extended its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive session on Monday. This consistent momentum is driven by increasing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may further tighten its monetary policy. The BoJ's potential shift towards a more hawkish stance is attracting significant market attention, as investors anticipate changes that could impact the currency's value. Additionally, the unwinding of carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets, is providing sustained support for the JPY. This unwinding trend suggests a repositioning of investments that favors the Yen, contributing to its recent strength. From a technical standpoint, the current price action has led the USD/JPY pair to a strong demand area, which aligns with multiple indicators pointing to a potential bullish reversal. Firstly, the pair has entered an oversold condition, suggesting that the selling pressure might be overextended and a corrective bounce could be on the horizon. Secondly, there is the potential start of bullish seasonality, a period during which historical data shows the JPY typically performs well. This seasonal trend could further bolster the case for a rebound. Our supply and demand strategy, which focuses on identifying key levels where price imbalances occur, indicates that the current demand zone is a critical area for a potential price reversal. This strategy has been effective in highlighting areas where buying interest may outweigh selling pressure, leading to upward price movements. Given the confluence of these technical factors, we are closely monitoring the price action for a long setup. We are particularly attentive to the behavior of the USD/JPY pair in this demand area. Should the price action confirm our expectations, we will look to enter a long position, anticipating a rebound. This approach aligns with our broader market analysis and strategic outlook, which aim to capitalize on identified opportunities supported by both technical indicators and market fundamentals. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.Longby FOREXN11113