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USDJPY trade ideas

"USDJPY Just Printed a Trap — Smart Money Is In. Are You?"🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Setup Alert: USDJPY | 15-Min Timeframe We’re spotting a high-probability bullish continuation setup on USDJPY backed by Smart Money logic. Let’s unpack what’s happening: 🧭 1. Liquidity Grab at the Low Notice how price created a false breakdown below prior structure — a classic liquidity hunt. Late sellers got trapped before price snapped back aggressively, triggering a Bullish Break of Structure (BOS). Smart Money needed to grab liquidity before running price higher. Textbook manipulation. 🟩 2. Refined Entry Zone: Discount + Bullish Order Flow Price has now retraced back to a discount zone, entering the premium-to-discount pullback area. Buyers are expected to defend this level, creating the potential for a bullish continuation. This entry is cleanly defined by a buy-side imbalance (light green area) which overlaps with a bullish order block and internal trendline support. 📐 3. Risk-to-Reward (R:R) Setup We’ve got an excellent R:R opportunity here: 🎯 Entry: Near 145.910 ❌ Stop Loss: Just above 146.314 (invalidate bullish bias) ✅ Take Profit Zone: 145.367 (with continuation possible beyond) This gives us roughly a 2.3R setup, highly favorable for swing entries. 🎯 4. Confluence Trendline support holding Bullish BOS confirmed Imbalance filled Liquidity grabbed Order block respected FVG forming structure for propulsion Smart Money is likely to push price back toward internal liquidity highs — and possibly sweep them for a final exit. 📊 Strategy: Wait for bullish engulfing or strong rejection wick from this discount zone to confirm entry. Trail stop as structure develops on lower timeframes. This setup can also be compounded if price forms another internal BOS. ⚠️ Risk Reminder: Don’t chase. Let price come to you. Manage risk at all times. One setup doesn’t define the day — consistency wins. 🧪 Summary: USDJPY is giving Smart Money vibes — from the liquidity grab, clean BOS, internal order block, to an excellent R:R setup. This is the kind of trade where you want to be the hunter, not the prey. 💬 Drop a 🔥 if you caught this move. 📩 Tag a trading buddy who needs to learn SMC. 📊 Stay smart. Trade with purpose.
Short
by ChartNinjas88
USDJPY Will Fall! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 147.944. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 146.291 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Japanese yen tumbles to five-week low on US-China tariff dealThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 148.18, up 1.9% on the day. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 148.59, its strongest level since April 3. The US and China have reached an agreement to slash tariffs on each other's products for 90 days. This would be a major de-escalation in the bruising tariff war between the world's two largest economies. Under the agreement, the US and China will slash tariffs by 115%, leaving US tariffs on China at 30% and China's tariffs on the US at 10%. The tariff agreement has boosted risk appetite, sending global stock markets higher. The deal has weighed on safe-haven assets like the yen, which is sharply lower on Monday. Gold, another safe-haven, has plunged 3.1% today. In Japan, household spending and wage growth were down in March. Household spending decelerated to 0.4% m/m, down sharply from 3.5% in February. Average Cash Earnings declined to 2.1% y/y, down from a downwardly revised 2.7% a month earlier. There was more bad news as service-sentiment for April eased, reflecting concern over US tariffs. These numbers support the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its wait-and-see stance before raising interest rates. The BoJ wants to see inflation remain sustainable at 2%, which will require higher wage growth and stronger consumer spending. Over the weekend, a host of Fed members made public statements. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler both noted that current rate policy was in an appropriate place and suggested patience was needed. This message echoed Fed Chair Powell's remarks at last week's FOMC meeting, when he said the Fed would take a wait-and-see attitude due to the uncertainty over US tariffs. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 146.83 and 147.48 and is testing resistance at 148.47. Above, there is resistance at 149.04 146.11 and 145.36 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY Set to Rise as Support Holds and Dollar Finds TailwindsUSDJPY looks poised for further upside following a period of consolidation and a successful retest of strong support around the 140.50 level. The weekly chart reveals a clear triple bottom pattern, reinforcing the strength of this support zone and suggesting renewed bullish momentum. The US Dollar is starting to regain strength after a period of weakness, supported by improving U.S. economic data, sticky inflation, and a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In contrast, Japan is unlikely to change its ultra-loose monetary policy in the near term, keeping rate differentials wide and favoring a stronger Dollar. With the Bank of Japan expected to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future, capital is likely to continue flowing out of the yen. Carry trade flows remain intact, adding to the upward pressure on USDJPY. Momentum indicators are turning higher, and price action is forming a steady base for another leg up. The market could target the 150 zone in the coming weeks, where the 50-week moving average may act as initial resistance. As long as 140.50 holds, dips could offer attractive buying opportunities. A sustained move above 145.00 could trigger fresh bullish momentum and accelerate gains.
Long
by fwalbaum
Risk assets rally amid trade talk developmentsFollowing the agreement between the United States (US) and China to temporarily reduce tariffs, there has been a notable unwinding of safe-haven assets and an increase in demand across risk. Recent developments show the US is preparing to lower levies from 145% to 30%, while China is set to decrease tariffs from 125% to 10%. Safe-haven assets weighed Along with the Swiss franc (CHF) and Spot Gold versus the US dollar (XAU/USD), the Japanese yen (JPY) is on the back foot today. The USD/JPY currency pair is up 2.0% today and has rallied nearly 4.0% on the month, poised to snap a four-month losing streak. USD/JPY bulls to remain on the offensive, targeting ¥149.00? Technically, support remains clear on the monthly scale of USD/JPY at ¥140.31, a base that is complemented by the Relative Strength Index demonstrating signs of rebounding from the 50.00 threshold (and the lower boundary of a falling wedge taken from 86.72 and 56.82). Buyers certainly have room to stretch their legs on the monthly timeframe, with resistance calling for attention at ¥160.20. As long as the unit closes above the ¥148.28 high (9 April) on the daily chart today, this will not only provide support around ¥148.15 to work with but also unlock the door for further upside towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥149.68. This is closely shadowed by another layer of possible resistance between ¥150.99 and ¥150.16, as well as Fibonacci resistance at ¥152.05-¥151.61. If you drill down to the H1 chart, you will note another support that warrants attention at ¥147.43. Should daily price fail to close above ¥148.28, I will closely monitor H1 support from ¥147.43 as another potential floor, with an immediate upside objective at ¥149.00, followed by the 200-day SMA at ¥148.69, as mentioned above. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets
USDJPY SHORT📉 TRADE IDEA – SHORT USD/JPY 🗓️ May 14, 2025 🔻 Position: Short 📍 Entry: 148.164 🎯 Target: 145.414 🛑 Stop Loss: [Set based on your risk — e.g., 148.189 Reasoning: Rejection from resistance zone above 148 Bearish structure forming on the 4H and daily charts Possible shift in sentiment around JPY with BoJ pressure mounting USD weakening as Fed rate expectations tilt dovish 📉 Targeting a drop toward key support at 145.414 — a clean level on the daily chart. This is a short- to medium-term swing trade based on technicals + macro shifts. Risk managed, watching upcoming Fed & BoJ commentary closely. 📊 Let the trade play out.
Short
by Ttzoncepts
USDCHF H4 I Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 144.30, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibo retracement. Our take profit is set at 142.61, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 145.49, a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
USD/JPY – Selling into RalliesPrice has over‑extended into multi‑month supply at 148.00 just as 4‑h momentum diverges. A softer CPI print or fresh MoF jaw‑boning could trigger a quick flush back toward 146.20/145.00. Price has stretched >3‑σ above 20‑DMA and is stalling just under the 2014 trend‑line extension. 61.8 % Mar‑Apr retrace (146.85) already satisfied; momentum divergence on 4‑h RSI & Fed‑CPI risk favor mean‑reversion. Any softer US CPI print or verbal jawboning from Japanese authorities could accelerate a squeeze lower.
Short
by TerraBullMarkets
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025) Current Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (US): 4.25%–4.50% (held steady on May 7, 2025). Bank of Japan (BoJ): 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025). Differential: ~3.75–4.00%, favoring the USD. This wide gap reflects the Fed’s cautious stance amid tariff-driven inflation risks and the BoJ’s reluctance to hike further due to trade-related growth concerns. Upcoming Economic Data and Events United States CPI Inflation (May 13–14): Core CPI YoY (Apr): Forecast 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). Headline CPI YoY (Apr): Forecast 2.4% (prev. 2.6%). Impact: Sticky inflation could delay Fed rate cuts, supporting USD strength. A downside surprise may revive rate-cut expectations, weakening the dollar. GDP Growth Revision (May 29): Q1 GDP growth prelim: -0.3% (QoQ annualized). Impact: A downward revision could pressure USD if stagflation fears grow. Fed Policy Signals: The Fed emphasized data dependency, with markets pricing no cuts until July 2025 Japan BoJ Policy Outlook (May 8): The BoJ lowered its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (vs. 1.0% in Jan) and core inflation to 2.2% (vs. 2.7% in Jan). Impact: Weak growth and inflation outlooks reduce BoJ’s scope for rate hikes, keeping JPY vulnerable. Trade Data (May 9): Exports YoY (Apr): Forecast 0.5% (prev. 12.4%). Imports YoY (Apr): Forecast -6.0% (prev. -4.3%). Impact: Weak exports (due to U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos) could further dampen growth, pressuring JPY. Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-China trade tensions and 25% U.S. tariffs on Japanese auto exports threaten Japan’s economy, reinforcing BoJ caution. Directional Bias for USD/JPY Short-term (May 2025): Bullish. The Fed’s delayed cuts and BoJ’s dovish tilt favor USD strength. USD/JPY is testing ¥162.50, with resistance near ¥165.00. Risks: Bearish JPY: BoJ’s growth/inflation downgrades, delayed hikes. Bullish JPY: Surprise BoJ hawkishness or U.S. recession fears. Conclusion: USD/JPY remains biased upward due to persistent interest rate differentials, BoJ dovishness, and Japan’s trade risks. However, weak U.S. GDP or a BoJ policy surprise could trigger corrections. Monitor U.S. CPI and BoJ guidance for near-term catalysts.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Long-term Analysis of USD/JPYIn this analysis, I used higher timeframes—specifically, the weekly timeframe to identify a box and a touch of the box's bottom on the daily and 4H charts. I also found other valuable details such as trendlines, order blocks, and FVGs. I hope the chart I shared helps you understand what I’ve marked. But let's put that aside for a moment. Today I wanted to talk about something different. For a while now, I’ve been in the process of immigrating to Germany. I haven’t had much time to trade lately, and all my capital has gone into this move. You might not believe this, but during the past two days, when we made about 10% profit in Forex (which I posted for you), I didn’t take any positions myself because I didn’t have the capital to trade. Still, I put a lot of effort and precision into the analysis—because I consider this capital as if it were my own. I truly didn’t want you to risk even a cent. I’ll continue sharing my analysis, but I have two small requests from you: Please always check and verify the analysis yourself before taking a position. You’re never obligated to follow or read/listen to my ideas. Lastly, if you happen to know any banks or platforms in Germany (or anywhere else) where I can trade or work and earn an income after moving, I’d be grateful if you could let me know. Just remember: the first request is mandatory—you must do your own analysis. Much love to you all. Have a great day (or night), and may you always be wealthy and successful.@soroushyyyy telgram
Long
by soroushshahabi639
USDJPY:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉 Technically: On May 10, the USD/JPY exchange rate was 145.3640, a decrease of 0.3250% compared to the opening price. 145.92 above is a key resistance level. If broken through, it is expected to challenge 146.36 and 148.20. 144.00 below is an important support level. If it is lost, the decline may accelerate. In terms of news: US President Trump announced the reaching of a trade agreement with the UK, which boosted the US dollar and weakened the Japanese yen. However, part of the trade-related positive news this week may have already been factored in. At the same time, the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate unchanged and sent a dovish signal. Pay attention to the subsequent trade agreement negotiations and the statements of the Federal Reserve. In terms of trading operations, one can try to open a short position with a small position near 145.92, with the target set at 144.00. Trading Strategy: sell@145.500-145.920 TP:144.500-144.000 The signals in the Signature have brought about continuous profits, and accurate signals are shared every day. Hurry up and click to get them! 👇 👇 👇 Obtain signals👉👉👉
Short
by PagAugustine
USDJPY with Price ActionPrice has broken above the key pivot zone around 145.00, which previously acted as resistance and may now flip into support. We’re currently seeing a minor pullback near the 145.60–146.00 zone after a strong bullish impulse. This red-circled area highlights hesitation, but as long as the price holds above the pivot, I’m maintaining a bullish bias. The market structure remains clean with higher highs and higher lows. The volume spiked during the move up and has decreased on the pullback—exactly what I want to see in a healthy retracement. I'm watching for a bullish reaction at or slightly above 145.00 to confirm continuation. If we get a strong bounce from the pivot zone, I’m targeting 147.00 as the first level and 148.50 as the extended target. However, if price breaks and closes below 145.00 with momentum, I’ll reassess—downside support could be around 143.50–144.00. Next steps: Waiting for a confirmation entry signal (bullish engulfing or strong rejection wick) near the pivot. Key risk to this setup is upcoming USD news and any BoJ commentary that could trigger volatility. Staying patient—will update if the pivot holds or fails.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx