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USDJPY trade ideas

Trade Setup: USD/JPY Long PositionI have entered a long position on USD/JPY following a confirmed breakout and close above the descending trendline on the 1-hour timeframe. The breakout signals a potential shift in momentum, with price now reclaiming key levels. Entry: 149.20 (Breakout confirmation) Stop Loss: 148.70 (Below recent structure support) Risk Management Level: 149.00 (Adjusting SL if price moves favorably) Target Levels: TP1: 149.62 - Moving SL to BE at this point to manage risk TP2: 150.12 TP3: 150.93 Trade Rationale: Price has broken and closed above a well-defined descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal. The recent bullish candles show momentum, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Risk is managed with a stop below recent lows, allowing room for volatility while protecting capital. Targets are aligned with key resistance levels where price may react.
Long
by PipShiesty
USDJPY --> Retesting key level. Attempting trend reversalFX:USDJPY during the correction phase, the market is retesting the boundaries of the downward trend channel that price previously broke through. The market is attempting to shift its trend based on the dollar's adjustment. The dollar faces challenges due to economic and geopolitical nuances related to the United States, as well as high inflation. Theoretically, the index could continue deeper corrections, with prolonged interest rate cut rhetoric potentially putting pressure on the market. Technically, this currency pair has attempted to overcome the previous downward trend resistance level and succeeded, but this alone is insufficient for a trend change - it requires confirmation. Support levels: 148.92, 148.21 Resistance levels: 150.16, 150.95 Focus remains on 148.92 - 149.5, if buyers maintain their defensive position above these levels, we have excellent opportunities to catch up with the trend change. This would signal readiness to approach the resistance threshold in the 150.16 range, and a breakthrough of this level with price fixation above it would confirm the trend reversal.
Long
by AdrianBennett
USD/JPY 4H AnalysisUSDJPY Trade Idea: Bearish Flag Breakdown and Key Technical Levels Trade Setup Overview Pattern Identified: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend. Key Resistance: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance. Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag's lower boundary near 149.300. Targets: TP1: 148.30 (100 pips, aligns with the flag's measured move). TP2: 146.60 (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level). Stop Loss: 150.00 (70 pips risk, above the flag's upper boundary and recent swing high). --- Critical Technical Factors 1. Bearish Flag Dynamics: The flag's "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of ~148.30 (TP1). A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling. 2. Confluence with Moving Averages: The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend. A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift. 3. Key Support Levels: 148.30: Near-term target (previous swing low). 146.60: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally). --- Risk Management Risk-Reward Ratio: TP1: 1:1.4 (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward). TP2: 1:3.8 (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward). Adjust Stops: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains. --- Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor 1. Fed Policy: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness. 2. BOJ Intervention: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00. 3. Risk Sentiment: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows). --- Execution Plan Sell Entry: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary). TP1: 148.30 (partial profit-taking). TP2: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum). Stop Loss: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns). --- Your trade plan is now structured and polished for sharing. Let me know if you need any tweaks!
Short
by JAMES_GOLD_MASTER_MQL5
USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Scalping Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. It's Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average 151.500 (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the nearest / swing low level Using the 5H timeframe (149.500) Day / swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 155.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 💵💰USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
USDJPY 1H – Rejection from Supply Zone, Short Bias ActivatedHey traders 👋 Here's a setup I’m currently watching on USDJPY. We just saw price react sharply from a clear supply zone around 149.90 – 150.00, which aligns perfectly with a previous structure and imbalance area. After a solid bearish rejection candle, I entered short with the expectation of a continued drop, targeting the 148.40 support zone. The RR is decent on this one. Setup details: Entry: ~149.58 SL: Above the supply zone (~149.95) TP: ~148.42 Bias: Bearish RR: ~3.5R I’m keeping a close eye on how price behaves around the 149.00 psychological level – any strong reaction might warrant partials or tighter management. Let me know what you think! Are you shorting too or waiting for confirmation?
Short
by StMartino
USD/JPY Technical Analysis - Reversal PointsCurrently, USD/JPY is in a bearish momentum, meaning the price is moving downward. Once this bearish move ends, a bullish reversal is expected. I have marked two key zones where a potential reversal could occur. Potential Reversal Zones (Support Levels): 1. 146.500 - 147.500 → A critical support area where price may bounce and start a bullish move. 2. 143.500 - 144.500 → If the price continues downward, this is the next key level where a bullish reversal could happen. Bullish Targets (Resistance Levels): If a reversal occurs, I expect the price to reach: 1. 156.000 - 157.500 → The first major resistance level. 2. 161.500 - 162.000 → If bullish momentum strengthens, the price may push toward this level. Conclusion : USD/JPY is expected to remain bearish until it reaches one of the identified support zones. If a bullish signal appears at these levels, the price could then push toward the mentioned resistance zones. 🚀
Short
by professionalgoldtrader
Japan's Business Sentiment Mixed, Yen StrengthensThe Japanese yen has gained ground on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.27, down 0.47% on the day. The yen was red-hot in the fourth quarter of 2024, gaining a massive 9.5% against the US dollar, but has reversed directions in Q1, declining 4.7%. The Manufacturing Tankan index indicated that confidence among manufacturers eased to 12 in Q1 2025, down from 14 in the previous quarter. This was the lowest level in a year, reflective of growing concern among Japanese manufacturers over US tariff policy. The Non-manufacturing Tankan index, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, climbing to 35 in Q1, up from 33 in the Q4 2024 release. This was the fastest pace of growth since August 1991, as companies are increasingly passing on costs to consumers. The mixed Tankan report is unlikely to change the cautious stance of the Bank of Japan, which has expressed concerns about the uncertainty caused by the threat of additional US tariffs. The BoJ held rates steady in March and the next meeting is on May 1, with the markets projecting another hold. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose wide-ranging tariffs on April 2, leaving US trading partners and the financial markets highly anxious ahead of what Trump has declared "Liberation Day". It is unclear which countries will be targeted or what the tariff rates will be, which has only added to financial market jitters. If Trump goes ahead with the tariffs and targeted countries retaliate with counter-tariffs, we will be one step closer to a global trade war. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 149.65. Below, there is support at 149.02 There is resistance at 150.59 and 151.22
by OANDA
USDJPY 31 MARCH 2025 Q2 W14 Y25 SHORT SET UPUSDJPY 31 MARCH 2025 Q2 W14 Y25 SHORT SET UP Looking forward to this short play. In terms of the strategy, the price action is lining up beautifully for a high probability trade set up. Why? Lets dissect. Weekly and daily 50 exponential moving average aligning proving the short confluences. Of late FRGNT have been taking high probability setups using the cushion that higher time frame moving averages continue to provide. It of course does not suggest an immediate position is executed from the EMA. It is simply a confluence that we can hang out hat on a they say. We are currently entering the daily order block created last Friday. We expect to see a bearish reaction but we are confident In waiting for our specific points of interest. What are they? aligned perfectly with the weekly and daily 50 ema, lies a 15' order block that is yet to me mitigated, this is our area to look for a short reaction. The dilemma. We enter a high probability area, do we await for a 15' break of structure after the bullish price action trailing into our area? Do we await and take a tap entry from the area? or finally do we await for a Lower time frame break of structure and if YES, How low do we go? I think the first element to look into is how price arrives into the area. Will there be high impact news at the time of price entering into the level? it is always worth noting there it always reason to loose a position but our goal is limit just our exposure to that risk even in highly favoured positions. What is the ideal set up for FRGNT? We hope to see clear trending price action into our level. With clear higher highs and higher lows, we are able to see areas to be violated on the turn around and break and structure. Ideally we will await for a 1' turn turn around from the level. As a result of the setup being backed by the 50 weekly ad daily ema. We do expect to see a rollover in price and do not want to miss the set up but we must see a break of strcutre of some sort. There can be a lot of confidence taken from a 1 minute roll over. We will look for 1minute engulfing candle from the level. Await the imbalance fill and enter on a market execution. What do you think? Let's see how price comes to us . FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders Breakdown & BearishThis detailed technical analysis covers a Head & Shoulders pattern formation on the 4-hour chart of JPY/USD, highlighting a potential bearish reversal setup. The pattern suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, supported by a trendline breakdown and key resistance & support levels. 1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S) 📉 What is the Head & Shoulders Pattern? The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a classic bearish reversal pattern that appears after a prolonged uptrend, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts: Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a retracement. Head: A higher peak, indicating the last strong bullish attempt. Right Shoulder: A lower peak, failing to reach the height of the head, showing weakening momentum. Neckline: A crucial support level that connects the lows of the shoulders. A confirmed break below this neckline is the trigger for a bearish continuation. 📊 Breakdown of the Pattern in This Chart Left Shoulder (First Peak): The price made a high and then pulled back. Head (Higher Peak): The market made another higher high but failed to sustain it, indicating exhaustion. Right Shoulder (Lower Peak): A weaker attempt to push higher, but price failed to break previous highs, confirming the loss of bullish strength. Neckline Breakout: The dotted trendline shows the ascending support that was eventually broken, confirming bearish momentum. 2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Market Structure Understanding the important levels in the market is crucial for setting up an effective trade. 🟧 Resistance Zone (Supply Area) The resistance level, marked in a beige box, is located around 0.006800. Price was rejected multiple times from this zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The head of the pattern was formed in this region before a sharp drop. 🔵 Support Level (Neckline & Demand Area) The neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern was acting as support before being broken. This level was tested multiple times before the final breakdown. Once broken, it turned into a resistance level, meaning price may pull back to this area before continuing downward. 📉 Trendline Breakout (Bearish Confirmation) A dashed trendline was previously supporting the uptrend but was broken, confirming the bearish shift in market structure. This signals a trend reversal and a possible extended move lower. 3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution A well-planned entry, stop loss, and take-profit strategy is essential for managing risk effectively. 📌 Entry Strategy (Short Setup) Ideal Entry: Look for price to pull back to the neckline (previous support turned resistance). Confirmation: Watch for bearish candlestick patterns such as: Bearish engulfing Pin bar rejection Shooting star Lower highs forming near the neckline A rejection in this zone confirms seller dominance and a high-probability short setup. 📌 Stop Loss Placement The Stop Loss is placed above the right shoulder at 0.006725. This ensures protection from false breakouts or unexpected bullish moves. 📌 Profit Target Projection Take-Profit Target: The projected move suggests a target at 0.006493. This aligns with previous structural support, increasing its significance. The measured move for Head & Shoulders suggests that price could fall further after confirmation. Risk-Reward Ratio The Risk (Stop Loss): Around 50 pips. The Reward (Profit Target): Around 180 pips. This results in a Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:3, making it an attractive trade. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Price Movement 📉 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely) Price retests the neckline but fails to break above it. Sellers step in, rejecting the resistance level, leading to further downside. Price targets the next major support at 0.006493, completing the Head & Shoulders move. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternative) If price reclaims the neckline and moves back above 0.006725, the pattern is invalidated. This could lead to a bullish continuation back toward previous highs. In this case, traders should cut losses early and avoid forcing a short trade. 5️⃣ Risk Management & Best Practices 1️⃣ Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to maintain long-term profitability. 2️⃣ Confirmation Before Entry: Wait for price to reject the neckline resistance before entering short. Avoid entering too early without clear bearish signs. 3️⃣ Monitor News & Fundamentals: Major economic events, interest rate decisions, or central bank announcements could impact JPY/USD price action. 🔎 Final Conclusion: Bearish Outlook on JPY/USD The Head & Shoulders breakdown signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The neckline breakout confirms seller control over the market. The best short entry is on a pullback to previous support (now resistance). Target at 0.006493, with a Stop Loss at 0.006725 ensures controlled risk. 📢 Trading Bias: Bearish 📉 💡 Watch for a retest & rejection before entering short.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades