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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 154.20, a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 153.61, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 154.71, which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to have you all here. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. December Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1, down 1.4 points from the previous month, marking its lowest level in three months, while the Services PMI rose to 58.5, up 1.4 points, hitting a 38-month high. - Eurozone December Composite PMI increased to 49.5, up 1.2 points from the previous month but remained below the critical threshold of 50. - ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated, "Monetary policy must proceed gradually and remain data-dependent." - At the December FOMC meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut is seen as a given, but there is a prevailing outlook for rates to be held steady in January. - Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation following a conflict with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Key Economic Indicators + December 17: U.S. November Retail Sales + December 18: U.K. November Consumer Price Index, Eurozone November Consumer Price Index, FOMC meeting results + December 19: Bank of Japan rate decision, Bank of England rate decision + December 20: U.S. November Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index USD/JPY Chart Analysis USD/JPY successfully bounced from the 149 level and broke through the 153.500 resistance, paving the way for a potential climb toward the 157 level. In the short term, an upward trend appears likely. However, with the FOMC meeting and the BOJ monetary policy meeting scheduled this week, there is significant uncertainty regarding medium- to long-term direction. We will revisit the outlook based on the outcomes of these events. If unexpected movements occur, we will quickly adjust our strategy accordingly.
Long
by shawntime_academy
usdjpy shortusdjpy short 💎Please don't be greedy ENTRY : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG position above red line for SHORT position ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1: Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2: For risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
Short
by RODDYTRADING
USDJPY: HTF DT ANALYSIS (1D)HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Resistance: 161.03 (Major Resistance, distal) 158.33 (Major Resistance, proximal) These levels are aligned with previous rejection zones. 157.8650 (Sell Stoploss Zones) Support: 147.7718 (Strong pivot level from historical lows). 144.8898 and 144.1802 (Mid pivot and buy orders zone). Pivot Zones: 153.4900 (Sell limit identified) 149.7555 (Mid Pivot TP 2 target). Trend: The pair is in a downtrend as highlighted on the chart, with key resistance zones being tested. Pivot Highs and Lows: Pivot highs are aligning with bearish divergences, as seen in areas of DT (Double Top) confirmations. Pivot lows signal potential reversals near support levels, supported by UT (Upward Trend) signals. Volume and Risk Metrics: Volume around Resistance 158 shows diminishing upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of rejection. Risk Index: 0.01853 indicates manageable risk levels for short trades. Reward Index: -0.01521 signifies opportunities for improved reward setups on lower timeframes. PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT Bearish Scenario: Rejection from the 153-158 range offers significant downside probability toward 147.77 and 144.18. Bullish Recovery: A confirmed breakout above 158.04 with strong volume could invalidate the bearish outlook, targeting 160.00. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Macroeconomic Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained ultra-loose monetary policies, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher interest rate stance. This divergence favors dollar strength. However, seasonal tendencies show that December often has corrective movements due to year-end profit-taking and reduced trading liquidity. Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. GDP and BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes could catalyze volatility. Watch for geopolitical developments impacting the Yen as a safe-haven currency. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is cautious. With the chart showing multiple sell zones and exhaustion signals Traders may wait for confirmation before heavy entries. TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS High-Risk Opportunities: Sell Entry: Stop Loss: Above 158.0416 157.06 (Sell Limit Order) 155.44 (Sell Stop Order 1) 153.49 (Sell Stop Order 2) Target: 147.84 (Major Support) Buy Entry: Entry: Near 144.1802 Stop Loss: Below 141.64
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
My Best analysis The chart shows a technical analysis of USD/JPY on the daily timeframe. The key observations include: 1. Resistance Zone (Grey Box): The price is currently near a strong resistance zone around 156.3, which has previously acted as a barrier. 2. Potential Downtrend: The chart illustrates a bearish scenario with a zigzag decline after breaking the support levels at 154.3, 151.9, and 149.6. 3. Support Zone (Pink Box): The area around 148.0 could act as a strong support zone in the longer term. This analysis suggests a potential sell-off in the coming days if resistance holds. However, market dynamics and fundamentals should also be considered
by LunaTrader_SingnalsProvider
BOJ RATE BRINGS USDJPY TO 145 LONG TERM The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming interest rate decision could be a pivotal moment for the USD/JPY currency pair, potentially driving it down to the 145 level. Here's why: Narrowing Interest Rate Differential: If the BoJ decides to raise interest rates or signals an intent to do so in the near future, this would narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. The U.S. has been maintaining higher interest rates compared to Japan's negative or near-zero rates. A reduction in this gap would make holding Japanese Yen (JPY) relatively more attractive, thus strengthening the JPY against the USD. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Markets often react to expectations before they react to actual news. If there's a growing consensus or speculation that the BoJ might tighten policy, traders might preemptively adjust their portfolios, leading to a stronger JPY. Recent posts on X have hinted at expectations of BoJ rate hikes, which could fuel this sentiment. Technical Analysis Indicators: From a technical standpoint, if the BoJ surprises with hawkish comments or actions, this could trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY. The pair has been hovering around key resistance levels, and a policy shift might push it below significant support levels, potentially aiming for 145. Technical analyses often look for signs of a break below current supports, which could be catalyzed by a BoJ decision. Global Economic Conditions: The global economic landscape, including U.S. economic data like employment figures, inflation rates, and Fed policy, will also play a role. If U.S. data suggests a softening economy or if the Fed signals rate cuts, this would weaken the USD against other currencies, including the JPY. Conversely, a dovish BoJ might not lead to as significant a drop, but the current market sentiment seems to be banking on at least some tightening from Japan. Psychological Levels and Market Dynamics: The 145 mark could act as a psychological level for traders, where large volumes of trading might occur due to this round figure. If the BoJ's actions or statements align with market expectations of a policy shift, this could accelerate the move towards this level, especially if there's already momentum in that direction.
Short
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
4-hr USD/JPY: Is This an Opportunity for 160 Pip JumpUSD/JPY has resumed its uptrend, gaining over 500 pips in the past 10 days, with bulls firmly in control. This is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a strong buy signal. If USD/JPY breaks above 154.50, the pair could test the 156 zone. However, after such a significant rally, early buyers may soon take profits, leading to short-term pullbacks. Upward momentum has slowed since yesterday, so we plan to wait for a correction before entering buy trades. The area around 152.80 appears to be a potential support zone, as it aligns closely with the key 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Dip buyers who follow the ongoing uptrend could secure a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and potentially ride a rally of over 160 pips from this level.
Long
by Trendsharks
USD/JPY SHORT POSSIBILITY FX:USDJPY If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or implements an interest rate hike—moving away from its traditionally ultra-low or negative rates—the yen could become more attractive to investors seeking yield, thereby strengthening against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, if the Federal Reserve moves toward a more neutral or dovish stance, pausing hikes or even contemplating cuts in response to slowing U.S. economic growth, the dollar’s yield advantage diminishes. This combination of a relatively more hawkish BOJ and a less aggressive Fed would likely reduce the interest rate differential that has been supporting the USD/JPY pair, thus increasing the probability of a downward move in USD/JPY. For retail investors I would suggest approach a cautious stand on short position and wait for confirmation from institutional money GOOD LUCK TRADERS!
Short
by alakorn_FX
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 18, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty capitalising on a modest recovery against its US counterpart from the previous day, attracting fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The latest data from Japan shows an unexpected improvement in the country's trade balance in November, driven by strong export growth. However, the data also points to weak local demand, as indicated by the decline in imports. This, along with an uncertain economic outlook amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, confirms expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged later this week, which will have the effect of undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the prospect of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as well as expectations that Trump's policies could boost government borrowing and accelerate inflation, continue to support US Treasury yields. This is another factor weighing on the low-yielding JPY, although the softer risk tone helps to limit the potential for further losses. JPY bears may also choose to adopt a more cautious approach and refrain from making any significant bets ahead of a key central bank event. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting today, followed by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy update on Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.500, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004